Fire Charlie Montoyo - The thread worked guys!

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Montoyo looked like an enlightened scholar yesterday compared to the guy in the other dugout. So it goes.

[connorp]

Just ask the run expectancy matrix.

 

Zero outs and men on 1st and 2nd:

 

1.373

 

One out and men on 2nd and 3rd:

 

1.352

 

 

So it's basically a neutral decision. But it was Biggio vs. a s***** RHP which is probably a favourable matchup. I think that fact makes the bunt decision bad. If they were giving up a PA that was Biggio vs. a LHP or a good reliver then sure, it's neutral.

 

Sigh lazy math as usual. First start with the s***** hitter up with a 1 in 5 change of getting a hit, 35% chance of getting on base, with the chance of a double play to kill the inning.

 

Then even once that is considered, who is coming up for the run expectancy you speak of? Is it Zimmer or Vlad?

[Spanky99]

Just ask the run expectancy matrix.

 

Zero outs and men on 1st and 2nd:

 

1.373

 

One out and men on 2nd and 3rd:

 

1.352

 

 

So it's basically a neutral decision. But it was Biggio vs. a s***** RHP which is probably a favourable matchup. I think that fact makes the bunt decision bad. If they were giving up a PA that was Biggio vs. a LHP or a good reliver then sure, it's neutral.

 

Not to mention they're the road team, and can add on, you don't f***ing bunt there. C-poop's an idiot.

[Spanky99]

Hey Spanky, tell us how we should’ve signed Rodon. Or traded for Clay Holmes this off-season

 

I wanted the Jays to sign Rodon... eejiit!!! lol

[connorp]

The probability Biggio is an unproductive out is much greater than success rate letting him go. Simple mathematical facts

[connorp]

Not to mention they're the road team, and can add on, you don't f***ing bunt there. C-poop's an idiot.

 

Gfy. Bo hits a SF there are you’re not playing Wednesday armchair manager

[polar bear]

I love how this thread is bumped after every loss.

 

Just reopens our eyes of how brutal a manager he really is.

Come on home Gibby.

[Spanky99]

Gfy. Bo hits a SF there are you’re not playing Wednesday armchair manager

 

I said it the moment it happened, same goes for the 8th inning, giving up outs aren't justified Baldilocks, whether it works or not the home team comes to the plate with a man on 2nd in extras, fool...

 

[connorp]

I said it the moment it happened, same goes for the 8th inning, giving up outs aren't justified Baldilocks, whether it works or not the home team comes to the plate with a man on 2nd in extras, fool...

 

 

80% chance Biggio doesn’t get a hit, 65% chance he doesn’t get on base. Very small chance it’s a productive out, more likely than that it’s a gidp.

 

You can want to put it on the line, more power to you but there’s two sides to the coin compadre

[connorp]

Missing in Laila’s analysis is the run expectancy when Biggio gets out; which he’s statistically heavily favored to do

[Jaysareus]

I've seen enough of romano as closer. Matt gage should be given a chance as closer

[Laika]

Missing in Laila’s analysis is the run expectancy when Biggio gets out; which he’s statistically heavily favored to do

 

how can you be this f***ing stupid?

 

how?

[Spanky99]

It's fun watching connor dig himself neck deep in ignorance.

 

Dude's thicker than a stump!!!

[Spanky99]

how can you be this f***ing stupid?

 

how?

 

lol

[Laika]

- Doesn't even know how run expectancy works

- Doesn't realize that after Kirk and Vlad, Biggio is actually the best on the team at "not getting out" by results in 2022

[connorp]

lol

 

Just worry about you two making sure you get equal chance at giving and receiving. Pollywagger

[connorp]

- Doesn't even know how run expectancy works

- Doesn't realize that after Kirk and Vlad, Biggio is actually the best on the team at "not getting out" by results in 2022

 

The old baseball adage goes that all the best hitters in the world fail 70% of the time. In the nerd age it’s 60% for the great ones (including walks). Biggio 65% chance at failing. Doesn’t matter where that ranks on the team

[Dagagad]

The old baseball adage goes that all the best hitters in the world fail 70% of the time. In the nerd age it’s 60% for the great ones (including walks). Biggio 65% chance at failing. Doesn’t matter where that ranks on the team

 

That’s factored into run expectancy.

[Laika]

Missing in Laila’s analysis is the run expectancy when Biggio gets out

 

Bitch that is PART of the nearly infinite number of events considered within the basic zero out, two on RE

[Spanky99]

The old baseball adage goes that all the best hitters in the world fail 70% of the time. In the nerd age it’s 60% for the great ones (including walks). Biggio 65% chance at failing. Doesn’t matter where that ranks on the team

 

[Laika]

Wait, connorp has cracked baseball. Hold up.

 

Everybody is likely to fail, in every at bat.

 

Hitters should just ALWAYS BUNT.

 

Never don't bunt.

 

Just bunt.

[connorp]

That’s factored into run expectancy.

 

Yes, but again, you can’t just take the number and not consider other factors. I would not argue for the bunt if you’re doing to set up anyone past Kirk…and I wouldn’t take the bat out of anyone’s hand that isn’t Tapia, Biggio, Chapman, Zimmer

[connorp]

Wait, connorp has cracked baseball. Hold up.

 

Everybody is likely to fail, in every at bat.

 

Hitters should just ALWAYS BUNT.

 

Never don't bunt.

 

Just bunt.

 

Ah. Go to the Strawman. Your buddy

[Laika]

We are not arguing anymore. I am just making fun of you.

[connorp]

We are not arguing anymore. I am just making fun of you.

 

Vilify me all you want. I’m the Ty Cobb of this board

[Dagagad]

Yes, but again, you can’t just take the number and not consider other factors. I would not argue for the bunt if you’re doing to set up anyone past Kirk…and I wouldn’t take the bat out of anyone’s hand that isn’t Tapia, Biggio, Chapman, Zimmer

 

Maybe, but that’s literally the ideal spot for biggio. Right handed pitcher who doesn’t throw hard and is a bit wild.

[Olerud363]

Just ask the run expectancy matrix.

 

Zero outs and men on 1st and 2nd:

 

1.373

 

One out and men on 2nd and 3rd:

 

1.352

 

 

So it's basically a neutral decision. But it was Biggio vs. a s***** RHP which is probably a favourable matchup. I think that fact makes the bunt decision bad. If they were giving up a PA that was Biggio vs. a LHP or a good reliver then sure, it's neutral.

 

What is the chance of getting the bunt down? That needs to be factored in too. So it's even a bit more favorable to not bunting.

 

Still not a franchise altering move. I think as Dagagad has pointed all these little moves are inconsequential compared to pitching and player development.

[wilko]

Vilify me all you want. I’m the Ty Cobb of this board

 

More of a John Rocker..

[Spanky99]

Vilify me all you want. I’m the Ty Cobb of this board

 

[Dagagad]

What is the chance of getting the bunt down? That needs to be factored in too. So it's even a bit more favorable to not bunting.

 

Still not a franchise altering move. I think as Dagagad has pointed all these little moves are inconsequential compared to pitching and player development.

 

Yea bad call but not crazy. Bo needs to not auto swing at anything at the bottom of the zone when he’s trying to hit something in the air.