MLB 2021 Draft

[Scion]

Huh? He'll just sign with Boston, likely over slot too.

 

I mean if a team in the top 3 selects him. Obviously if he falls to Boston it worked.

[TwistedLogic]

It's a weird play if true since not signing with a team in the top 3 would mean re-entering a year or two from now when Boston will not be in position to draft him this high. This is to say nothing of the risks associated with turning down a large bonus offer as a SP.

 

It's a bluff and a weak one at that. No chance in hell he doesn't sign if one of the top three teams take him.

 

But I haven't followed the draft prospects closely this year and I still thought Leiter was projecting as #1 OA.

 

If what the others in here are saying is true and he's no longer a consensus top 3 then I don't really care if the Sox grab him.

[Spanky99]

I mean if a team in the top 3 selects him. Obviously if he falls to Boston it worked.

 

Gotcha. I doubt he'd not sign, but who knows how that rumour works out, or just how passionate he wants to be a Bosox. What a dummy... F the Sox!

[Spanky99]

It's a bluff and a weak one at that. No chance in hell he doesn't sign if one of the top three teams take him.

 

But I haven't followed the draft prospects closely this year and I still thought Leiter was projecting as #1 OA.

 

If what the others in here are saying is true and he's no longer a consensus top 3 then I don't really care if the Sox grab him.

 

Only just recently he's been dropping a bit, the reason could very well be from that link you posted. I thought Rocker and Leiter were going 1/2 many moons ago but the middle infield guys seemed to have muscled their way into the top of Mock Drafts.

[metafour]

If what the others in here are saying is true and he's no longer a consensus top 3 then I don't really care if the Sox grab him.

 

It depends on how much the "public rankings" are being affected by that development (him trying to push himself down to #4) if it's in fact true. I did find it kind of strange that all of a sudden ~2-3 HS shortstops are supposedly better than him.

[Krylian]

Why do you automatically associate the word "safe" and the attributes of plus command and control with Deck McGuire? Aaron Nola was described similarly so there are a wide range of outcomes for that kind of profile.

 

Nola had far superior stuff. McGuire was all average across the board. I get the same impression with McGreevy. I associate safe with average

 

Edit: I retract my statement about McGreevy. I must have been looking at an older scouting report cause I was under the impression he was a low 90s guy. Now that I see he's consistently in the mid-90's touching 97, I am more intrigued. I am very much a stuff guy in the 1st round. Pitchability is important, but I don't like pitchers without at least above average stuff being taken early.

[Spanky99]

Why do you automatically associate the word "safe" and the attributes of plus command and control with Deck McGuire? Aaron Nola was described similarly so there are a wide range of outcomes for that kind of profile.

 

It's because Krylian was replying to Keith's mock pick here, you can't blame him...

 

19. Toronto Blue Jays: Mike McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

 

The Blue Jays have shown they’re willing to go college or high school, but I don’t think they’ll go high school pitcher in the first round. McGreevy is a “safe” pick as college arms go, with some of the best command in the draft and probably the best control, with just 10 walks this year in 88 2/3 innings, never more than two walks in any single start.

 

Also Jim Callis...

 

28) Rays: Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

This is the area of the Draft where the “safer” college arms come in and tend to creep up as the Draft gets closer. McGreevy has an intriguing combination of feel for pitching and some upside.

Edited June 15, 2021 by Spanky99

[Scion]

Nola had far superior stuff. McGuire was all average across the board. I get the same impression with McGreevy. I associate safe with average

 

Edit: I retract my statement about McGreevy. I must have been looking at an older scouting report cause I was under the impression he was a low 90s guy. Now that I see he's consistently in the mid-90's touching 97, I am more intrigued. I am very much a stuff guy in the 1st round. Pitchability is important, but I don't like pitchers without at least above average stuff being taken early.

 

I vividly recall seeing posters balk at the notion of Nola as a high first rounder because of his profile as a safe SP with plus command and polish. Now I'm not saying that McGreevy is Aaron Nola, but that broad description doesn't mean he is Deck McGuire either. For whatever reason people associate 'safe' with a low floor and 'plus command' with having lesser stuff.

[Laika]

Stop talking about Deck McGuire! Nightmares.

 

11 - Deck McGuire - Toronto

12 - Yasmani Grandal - Cincinnati

13 - Chris Sale - Chicago

[Scion]

Edit: I retract my statement about McGreevy. I must have been looking at an older scouting report cause I was under the impression he was a low 90s guy. Now that I see he's consistently in the mid-90's touching 97, I am more intrigued. I am very much a stuff guy in the 1st round. Pitchability is important, but I don't like pitchers without at least above average stuff being taken early.

 

Stuff plays up when it is paired with plus command and vice-versa. You also have to remember that most of these kids are still growing into their frames and are not a finished product from a stuff stand-point.

[Scion]

Stop talking about Deck McGuire! Nightmares.

 

11 - Deck McGuire - Toronto

12 - Yasmani Grandal - Cincinnati

13 - Chris Sale - Chicago

 

Somewhere in the multiverse Chicago and Cincinnati are ruing the day they just missed out on Deck McGuire. I take pleasure in that.

[Laika]

Somewhere in the multiverse Chicago and Cincinnati are ruing the day they just missed out on Deck McGuire. I take pleasure in that.

 

I actually don't think so. I just travelled to every single known universe and Deck McGuire goes to Korea in 2019 to get his s*** pushed in in all of them.

[Scion]

I actually don't think so. I just travelled to every single known universe and Deck McGuire goes to Korea in 2019 to get his s*** pushed in in all of them.

 

Well then I take solace knowing that the same outcome is true across all known galaxies. Some things are just pre-destined and you can't beat yourself up about it.

[TheHurl]

Nola had far superior stuff. McGuire was all average across the board. I get the same impression with McGreevy. I associate safe with average

 

Edit: I retract my statement about McGreevy. I must have been looking at an older scouting report cause I was under the impression he was a low 90s guy. Now that I see he's consistently in the mid-90's touching 97, I am more intrigued. I am very much a stuff guy in the 1st round. Pitchability is important, but I don't like pitchers without at least above average stuff being taken early.

 

 

I think the biggest thing to read into the Deck profile was that he was on a downswing heading into the draft. 2 months earlier he was projected to go top 5. Nola didn't even throw a curve in college. It developed into one of the best in baseball. It's a crapshoot. There is no first round profile that always fails though...well catcher but that's another thing.

 

The Blue Jays drafted Nola and his older brother Austin in 2011, and they both turned down the Jays to play the 2012 season together at LSU. While Austin is now playing shortstop at Double-A in the Marlins system, Aaron was having one of the best seasons in college baseball in 2014. Athletic and flexible, Nola manages to stay on top of his pitches and command them despite a mid-three-quarters release point that gives his fastball excellent life. His fastball sits 93-94 mph and touches 95 regularly, and he reached back for 96 in a hyped, head-to-head showdown with Vanderbilt and Tyler Beede in March. Nola's fastball command ranks toward the top of the college class, as he can pitch to both sides of the plate, though his walk rate has increased (1.3 to 2.3 per nine) this season as he has thrown more sliders. His strikeout rate has jumped even more (8.7 to 10.7 per nine). Nola arrived at LSU with a plus changeup with sink that looked like his fastball out of his hand, but he has lost feel for his change while improving his slider, which was once below-average. Scouts give his slider average or better grades as he has added power to the pitch, but they would like to see a return of his plus change. Nola gets swings and misses in the zone with his fastball, the mark of a starting pitcher, and is one of the safest bets in the class. His command should help the 6-foot-1, 196-pounder move quickly.

 

 

McGuire is a Virginia product who was a mid-week starter as a freshman at Georgia Tech before settling in as the Yellow Jackets' Friday starter the last two seasons. He had more success for the first three-quarters of 2009 than he had at the end of last season, when he was hammered in the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament and in regional play--he gave up nine runs to Southern Miss in the regional final working on two days' rest. McGuire's stuff hasn't been quite as crisp since then, and scouts have lowered their expectations for the 6-foot-6, 218-pounder, but most still see him as a No. 3 or No. 4 starter in the majors. McGuire commands a 90-92 mph fastball that hits 94, and he throws with a good downhill angle to the plate, making it tough to elevate. His fastball has a bit less life than it used to. McGuire also throws strikes with his curveball and harder slurve, and his changeup is average to fringe-average. He's an excellent competitor who doesn't fold up with runners on base. He's a proven college winner with a good track record of performance and durability; similar prospects rarely last through the first half of the first round.

[Spanky99]

I think the biggest thing to read into the Deck profile was that he was on a downswing heading into the draft. 2 months earlier he was projected to go top 5. Nola didn't even throw a curve in college. It developed into one of the best in baseball. It's a crapshoot. There is no first round profile that always fails though...well catcher but that's another thing.

 

Is the NCAA World Series going to be televised, starts this Saturday, correct?

 

Hmm... it's all on ESPN, hopefully it's on a youtube stream. No Arkansas holy s***.

Edited June 15, 2021 by Spanky99

[Slade]

McGreevy is good don't lump him in with McGuire or Jenkins.

 

Michael McGreevy

UC Santa BarbaraRHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 200 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 21.0

 

BA Grade: 55 | Risk: High

Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 70

 

McGreevy caught scouts’ attention in high school with a velocity spike at the end of his senior year, but his short track record and questions about his signability allowed him to get to campus at UC Santa Barbara. He starred immediately for the Gauchos, earning Freshman All-America honors as a multi-inning reliever before moving into the rotation as a sophomore and posting a 0.99 ERA before the coronavirus pandemic shut down the season. McGreevy picked up where he left off in 2021, assuming the Friday night starter’s role for UCSB and emerging as the best college pitcher on the West Coast. He went 9-1, 2.92 with 109 strikeouts and 10 walks in 95.2 innings during the regular season. A standout shortstop in high school, McGreevy is an excellent athlete who fills up the strike zone with four pitches. His fastball sits 91-93 mph and touches 95-96 with sink and finish to his arm side. His low-80s curveball with downer action flashes plus, and his mid-80s slider and changeup each project as average to slightly above. McGreevy stands out most for his control. He is an elite strike-thrower who walked only 30 batters in 183.1 career innings at UCSB and projects to have plus-plus control, with evaluators noting his misses are smaller than former Gaucho and reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber’s were at the same age. McGreevy locates his fastball to both sides of the plate, lands all three of his secondary pitches for strikes and works quickly and efficiently. With a strong, durable body at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds and an athletic, repeatable delivery, McGreevy holds his stuff deep into games and is a no-doubt starting pitcher. Most see him as a potential mid-rotation starter, but he’s young for the class at only 20 and is a candidate to take a jump in an organization with a strong player development team.

LESS

[Benito]

Excellent athlete, good size, elite control with possibility to develop more in the way of stuff. Sounds like McGreevy would be terrific value at pick 19. I trust this front office, and the player development strategy they've implemented, to maximize the selection if they feel he is the best talent available at 19.

[Laika]

If McGreevy sits 91-93 and touches 96, isn't that just the 2021 version of Deck sitting 90-92 and touching 94 back in 2010? Basically the same fastball, relative to their peers at the time.

 

Deck was more or less 50 FB, 60 SL, 50 CB, 50 CH, 60+ command, good track record and size.

 

McGreevy's scouting figures IN CONTEXT are not that different.

 

The problem with Deck was two fold, I think:

1) Toronto didn't care enough about velocity and stuff. They were behind the curve and they valued other (apparent) skills too much. Like size, pounding the zone, etc.

2) Toronto wasn't on top of Deck enough to know that he was declining heading into the draft. His K rate actually peaked as a sophomore, not a junior. They drafted a declining asset who unfortunately continued to decline athletically in pro ball, or at least failed to improve in pro ball.

 

You might even blame a huge part of Deck flopping on Toronto's failed development of him, and not the selection. Did they even try to fix the guy in any aggressive way? As far as I remember he just plugged along in the minors putting up 26 starts and 5.00+ ERAs for a few years then debuted throwing 92-93 still.

[Benito]

If McGreevy sits 91-93 and touches 96, isn't that just the 2021 version of Deck sitting 90-92 and touching 94 back in 2010? Basically the same fastball, relative to their peers at the time.

 

Deck was more or less 50 FB, 60 SL, 50 CB, 50 CH, 60+ command, good track record and size.

 

McGreevy's scouting figures IN CONTEXT are not that different.

 

The problem with Deck was two fold, I think:

1) Toronto didn't care enough about velocity and stuff. They were behind the curve and they valued other (apparent) skills too much. Like size, pounding the zone, etc.

2) Toronto wasn't on top of Deck enough to know that he was declining heading into the draft. His K rate actually peaked as a sophomore, not a junior. They drafted a declining asset who unfortunately continued to decline athletically in pro ball, or at least failed to improve in pro ball.

 

You might even blame a huge part of Deck flopping on Toronto's failed development of him, and not the selection. Did they even try to fix the guy in any aggressive way? As far as I remember he just plugged along in the minors putting up 26 starts and 5.00+ ERAs for a few years then debuted throwing 92-93 still.

 

I don't remember enough from that draft, and you could be right in your analysis. I just remember wanting Sale (I know, hindsight) and my vague recollection of McGuire's scouting report was that of a bland, back of the rotation guy, Jays selected to move quickly to the majors.

 

McGreevy at least seems to be a little younger, better athlete (?) and under the current Jays development system, perhaps still has room to grow. If Jays were picking 11 as in 2010, then yes, I would hope for higher upside. But at 19, if McGreevy can develop into a mid-rotation guy, maybe a no.3, I wouldn't mind I don't think.

[Krylian]

I vividly recall seeing posters balk at the notion of Nola as a high first rounder because of his profile as a safe SP with plus command and polish. Now I'm not saying that McGreevy is Aaron Nola, but that broad description doesn't mean he is Deck McGuire either. For whatever reason people associate 'safe' with a low floor and 'plus command' with having lesser stuff.

 

Safe is usually associated with high floor, but low ceiling

[metafour]

Kiley McDaniel just released a new Mock Draft and....we have a new surprise Jays pick/connection!

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31651109/kiley-mcdaniel-2021-mlb-mock-draft-20-new-no-1-gets-jack-leiter-kumar-rocker

 

19. Toronto Blue Jays

Jay Allen, CF, John Carroll Catholic HS (FL), Florida commit

 

Toronto was in heavy at a Florida prep All-Star game to see Allen (where he played well). He's in play at the two picks before this and with Tampa Bay's picks just below, so this is the spot to take Allen if the Jays want him. Wake righty Ryan Cusick and Florida outfielder Jud Fabian are also frequently mentioned here.

[Laika]

Not sure I like the Jud Fabian note in there though

[Slade]

Here's the full mock and the BA scouting report on Allen.

 

Edit - added Cusick too.

 

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Last: 38

Jay Allen

Carroll Catholic, Fort Pierce, Fla.OF

Notes:

Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 190 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Florida

Age At Draft: 18.6

Rapscore: 50

 

BA Grade: 55 | Risk: Extreme

Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 55 | Field: 55 | Arm: 50

 

An impressive three-sport athlete, Allen was named the third-best athlete among position players in Baseball America’s preseason poll voted on by scouting directors, trailing only Texas shortstop Jordan Lawlar and Pennsylvania outfielder Benny Montgomery among high school players. Allen was a talented high school quarterback and basketball player at Carroll Catholic, and scouts were impressed with how easily he seemed to bounce from the basketball court to the diamond and swing the bat well. Allen impressed evaluators with his ability to drive the ball to both sides of the field this spring, against solid pitching, and those who believe in his bat think he has a chance to add solid power in the future as he fills out a 6-foot-3, 190-pound frame. While Allen has turned in plus run times in the past, some scouts were surprised with the lack of explosion Allen showed in the run times they got on the stopwatch this spring. At the same time, he’s shown impressive baserunning instincts in the past with good acceleration and a solid first step. For teams who believe Allen is more of a good runner than a great one, there will likely be some concern that he has to move off of center field to a corner, but there are scouts who think he will be able to handle center field and also be a top-of-the-lineup hitter. Allen is committed to Florida, but some teams like him inside the top-two rounds.

 

 

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Last: 30

Ryan Cusick

Wake ForestRHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-6 | Wt: 225 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Reds '18 (40)

Age At Draft: 21.7

Rapscore: 50

 

BA Grade: 50 | Risk: High

Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 40 | Control: 45

 

Cusick’s father played college football in Maine, and Cusick himself wouldn’t look out of place on the gridiron with a massive 6-foot-6, 235-pound frame. He has the power stuff to back it up and has been a hard thrower since his high school days, when he sat in the 92-94 mph range and touched 97. After three years at Wake Forest, Cusick now has one of the best fastballs in the country, a pitch that sits around 95 mph and has been up into the 100-102 mph range with solid life. Cusick will also flash a plus breaking ball that averages around 80 mph and has slurvy shape that looks more like a slider at times and more like a downer curve at others, but scouts have noted that the pitch is inconsistent—a critique that dates back to his prep days. The pitch itself shows quality spin, movement and bite at times, but Cusick’s usability of the pitch needs to improve. Cusick also throws a firm, upper-80s changeup that has slight fading action at times, but his usage of the pitch is extremely minimal. Cusick posted a 4.24 ERA this spring through 12 starts and 70 innings, with 108 strikeouts (13.9 K/9) to 32 walks (4.1 BB/9). He’s a control-over-command pitcher who can put the fastball over the plate enough, but some evaluators think he hasn’t made enough adjustments in his strike throwing to safely profile as a starter, and instead think he’ll be a power arm out of the bullpen.

 

We're now about three weeks from the 2021 MLB draft, which begins on Sunday, July 11, and while there's more buzz about specific team preferences, sources say information on this front will be much clearer at the end of the month with the College World Series and first draft combine along with a number of private workouts starting in the coming days.

 

It's still a little early to have a team's mix down to a few certain players. That isn't reality for most teams yet, and there haven't been many substantive calls with advisers yet, particularly at the top picks. In projecting picks for a mock, the buzz from the day or two before the draft is at least 50 percent nonsense, smokescreens and backup plans. What I'll get in the next two weeks, in combination with which teams have scouted players the most, the general profile of players they tend to take, and if I tend to handicap their picks, can all be combined for the best outcome in a projection.

 

All that said, it makes sense to check in on this front one more time as these final big events are about to kick off, then circle back with more at the end of the month. These are where I think players will be selected, not the order in which I'd take them.

 

 

More: Draft order | Top 150 prospects | Full draft coverage

 

 

1. Pittsburgh Pirates

Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (California), USC commit

 

Another interesting component of this year's and last year's draft is the power of the media in shaping opinions about players. Teams have less data from 2020 and in 2021 than in any other recent draft, so the power of having a sense of what the other 29 teams think is more useful than normal. In addition, teams are leaning more on draft models than ever. All of them factor in public rankings, with some teams believing that it's an important variable as a proxy for factors that are underrated by rival teams, like valuing history over the most recent look.

 

Why do I bring this up? It's obvious this year that there's no clear top prospect, and with a hard-capped draft, the price for signing each prospect matters because it impacts who you can take at your next pick. If it becomes accepted in every notable mock that prep SS Jordan Lawlar will go first, at least indirectly, the perception -- if not his actual price -- will continue to get closer to full slot if he's drafted first. In a year with a half-dozen prospects who could be argued to be best, by default once a player has the momentum of being projected first a number of times in a row, then the "price" needed to sign him goes up, then other players become better values as theirs "drops" in comparison, to drastically simplify things.

 

EDITOR'S PICKS

 

CWS 2021 preview: What you need to know about each team

 

Road to 2021 College World Series: NCAA baseball tournament scores, schedule

 

A surprise No. 1 pick? The next two-way star? Your early cheat sheet to the 2021 MLB draft

This is especially notable at this juncture in the process. Most if not all of the teams picking in the top five explicitly have not made any clear decisions on their final mix, and at least one team has specifically instructed its scouts not to chat among themselves about their preferences, so it's easier to keep an open mind. So while essentially nothing is happening in terms of known team preference, contact with advisers, etc. to actually shift a projection, I think you're seeing movement away from Lawlar as the first pick because he's perceived to have a higher signing price than Mayer (while essentially a coinflip on talent) because the narrative is Lawlar was narrowly better and/or narrowly more likely to go first.

 

I think Mayer would command a little less than Lawlar if the draft were today and I think that's what Pittsburgh's pick will come down to: taking the one that is clearly cheaper to sign. Today, I think that will be Mayer and thus I project him as such. If Mayer is projected to go first in every mock for the rest of the month and Lawlar is outside of the top three picks, which would be mirroring some understanding of what teams might actually do, it's totally possible that Lawlar becomes cheaper to sign than Mayer (again, drastically simplifying) and thus after a few weeks of this Mayer-going-first narrative, Lawlar (or Henry Davis or even Jack Leiter) could then be on top at the end of the process, to say nothing of who will actually be drafted first overall.

 

I've had phone calls the past few weeks about teams sending top evaluators to scout players or inviting players to private workouts because a mock draft or new ranking caused a player to move up enough in a team's model that they essentially went to scout him again because of what they read. To me, that's ridiculous, but it's happening, and it might well end up impacting how the top half dozen picks play out.

 

 

2. Texas Rangers

Henry Davis, C, Louisville

 

In this scenario, I think Texas' main options are the top college players (Davis and Jack Leiter) and local prep SS Jordan Lawlar. I think, all things being equal, there's a preference for college here, but we don't yet know if all things are equal.

 

 

3. Detroit Tigers

Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (Georgia), Tennessee commit

 

Detroit has long been tied to Mayer. This is seen as Mayer's floor, which will impact the price he eventually quotes to Pittsburgh. There was a roughly $1.7 million gap in the slot values for the first and third picks in last year's draft, and it should be similar this year. Who is next on Detroit's board is still an open question, and it appears Detroit is also still working that out.

 

RHP Jack Leiter fits their pitcher preferences to a T (SEC performance, power stuff), while they are also tied to RHP Jackson Jobe (even higher upside, but the risk of a high school pitcher), House (for me, the highest upside in the draft, with some striking Bobby Witt Jr. parallels), and Lawlar. Al Avila has been in to see the Vanderbilt arms this season and was in Lakeland this week for a two-day private workout with House. I think it's down to House and Leiter in this scenario. House might be a bit cheaper since this is his first real landing spot, and Detroit tends to lean to position players with its first pick.

 

 

4. Boston Red Sox

Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

 

This seems unlikely on its face, but two teams leaning to position players in a tight decision before Boston's turn is actually the most likely outcome at each pick. The Red Sox have been tough to pin down at this pick, being rumored with every top player, which is basically the same as being linked to none of them.

 

More: The secrets behind Vandy's 1-2 pitching punch

 

 

5. Baltimore Orioles

Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (North Carolina), NC State commit

 

With GM Mike Elias' history of undercutting Carlos Correa in 2012 and Heston Kjerstad in 2020, it was inevitable that the paint-by-numbers projection here was going to include an underslot position player. The actual links this spring have been almost exactly that, with all four of the top prep shortstops, prep catcher Harry Ford and Sam Houston State outfielder Colton Cowser. Of those available here, Watson seems most like Elias' type, so I'll lean that way until more intel comes in.

 

 

6. Arizona Diamondbacks

Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit HS (Texas), Vanderbilt commit

 

Like Leiter, this one seems unlikely given the narrative from the past 12 months of Lawlar being the top player, but I delved into that in detail above. Watson fits Arizona, and there's a real shot that the D-backs take Jobe here if their preferred bat doesn't make it. I'm not sure if Lawlar is that preferred bat or not. Of the four prep shortstops, Mayer and Watson are the best hitters, and House has the most upside, so it's not impossible that, if the draft were today, the prospect that fits in the middle on both fronts who might also have the highest bonus expectations could be the one to slide.

 

2021 MLB draft rankings 3.0

 

A new name has emerged as a possible No. 1 overall pick. Whom else could your favorite team be targeting when draft day arrives?

 

Kiley McDaniel

 

Since Lawlar is old (18) for his prep class, he would be sophomore eligible if he went to Vanderbilt and, like Rocker, there has to be an amount of money where if he's offered less than that, he just heads to Nashville; we just don't know what that number is right now. Being older for the class gives Lawlar more leverage since he'll be eligible more quickly than most SEC prospects, but it also hurts him empirically in draft models since age for prep hitters is a huge predictive factor. At some point, waiting a few years and taking on big risks to go just a few picks higher doesn't make much sense.

 

 

7. Kansas City Royals

Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

 

One of the few things that people around the industry seem to agree on is that Kansas City is likely to take Rocker if he gets here, and right now, he's seen as likely to get here. The Royals were on Rocker back to his high school days, and he fits their recent preference for major conference college arms. They're on House as well, and I'd imagine they would take a long look at Lawlar or Watson if either got this far.

 

 

8. Colorado Rockies

Benny Montgomery, CF, Red Land HS (Pennsylvania), Virginia commit

 

The Rockies have been on Montgomery a lot and also are on House (not sure whom they prefer) and would likely consider one of the shortstops if they got down here. Jobe makes sense on talent, but Colorado prefers sinkerballers and a right-handed high school pitcher up top seems like a tough sell after 2016 No. 4 overall pick Riley Pint's recent retirement.

 

 

9. Los Angeles Angels

Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (Oklahoma), Ole Miss commit

 

This is where the surprising rumors begin and the talent consensus starts to separate. The Angels had their top three evaluators at Connecticut prep LHP Frank Mozzicato's last start and have long been tied to Georgia prep SS/RHP Bubba Chandler as well, along with doing their due diligence on Rocker. I don't think either prep prospect will be the pick here, but new GM Perry Minasian is casting a wide net.

 

I have Jobe here because probably has slid too far at this juncture on talent, and the Angels (like most teams) could use as much dynamic talent as possible. If Jobe, Rocker and the four shortstops are all off the board, I would expect one of the college position players to be the pick (Cowser, Sal Frelick, Matt McLain).

 

 

10. New York Mets

Matt McLain, 2B, UCLA

 

The Mets are also casting a wide net since it's unclear who is really the best prospect at this juncture and teams are doing deep dives later than usual due to the lack of information. In this scenario, the Mets get their pick of the three college bats in this range (passing on center fielders Sal Frelick and Colton Cowser). They're considering Texas RHP Ty Madden, and the hot rumor is they have been piling in recently to see rising Indiana prep SS Colson Montgomery, who could be an underslot option here.

 

 

11. Washington Nationals

Ty Madden, RHP, Texas

 

If Rocker, Jobe and the four prep shortstops don't make it here, I'd expect a college pick from the Nats. Madden gives off similar vibes to their top pick last year, RHP Cade Cavalli from Oklahoma, and Madden seems like a fit for a traditional scouting-oriented club as most progressive-leaning organizations have him ranked closer to 20th. Miami (Ohio) RHP Sam Bachman also isn't seen as likely to go until about a dozen picks later but could be a rocket-armed money saver here.

 

 

12. Seattle Mariners

Sal Frelick, CF, Boston College

 

Seattle could be looking to get one of those three college bats to this pick, and they get to choose between Frelick and Cowser, who are a coinflip on talent. If McLain got here, he would also be in the mix.

 

 

13. Philadelphia Phillies

Colton Cowser, CF, Sam Houston State

 

Benny Montgomery is mentioned a lot, but I'm not sure he gets to this pick, and it may not be much more than proximity. Cowser, Harry Ford and Will Taylor are the top players on my board at this pick. I'd expect the Phillies to jump on a solid value on someone that slipped a few picks.

 

 

14. San Francisco Giants

Will Taylor, CF, Dutch Fork HS (South Carolina), Clemson commit

 

Taylor was already interesting due to his multisport athletic prowess (state champ in wrestling and as a quarterback) and his meteoric rise this spring with his elite, slot football receiver-for-Clemson ability translating to the diamond as well. Taylor is clearly intrigued with a dual-sport, multi-positional future with the Tigers and the rumor is that he'll early enroll in college next week. As MLB informed me (some teams weren't totally clear on this rule) Taylor will stay eligible for the draft as a high school player until the fall semester begins.

 

He will be a tricky sign for this reason, but I'll project him to go in the middle of the first round until I get more information. There's some buzz that he's already cut a deal or has a specific, high number in mind, which severely limits the number of teams that can consider him. Picking at the back of the round with no extra picks basically eliminates a team from consideration, like with Nick Bitsko last year.

 

The Giants seem to also be looking for any of the projected top nine picks or one of the college bats beyond there to fall, with Cowser the one they're linked to most often. Harry Ford fits their preferences, but only as a position change (some have suggested center field) given backstops Joey Bart and Patrick Bailey as recent first rounders.

 

 

15. Milwaukee Brewers

Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (Georgia), Georgia Tech commit

 

Ford shouldn't get much past this, with interest starting at pick five with Baltimore. This is about the range where quick-rising Connecticut prep LHP Frank Mozzicato begins to be in play, but the list of weak connections here is long enough that I'll save it for when it's shorter.

 

 

16. Miami Marlins

Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss

 

Like with most of the picks in this range, many of the players projected ahead would make sense if they made it to this pick and Hoglund has interest at multiple spots in this area, with the biggest bonus coming either here or a dozen picks later when clubs' second picks come up. I would expect Miami to line up the next tier of prep bats, which is long and will start coming off the board in a few picks.

 

 

17. Cincinnati Reds

Bubba Chandler, SS/RHP, North Oconee HS (Georgia), Clemson commit

 

Cincinnati has extra picks, and that has led to them being tied to a number of players, but along with the Angels and Braves, they are mentioned most with Chandler. It sounds like Cincy would consider Chandler as a two-way player, and let him hit first then adjust based on results. Florida prep outfielder Jay Allen is a target for their next pick (but now it looks like he won't get there), and Florida prep outfielder James Wood is connected to their third and/or fourth picks.

 

 

18. St. Louis Cardinals

Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State

 

College arms Bednar, Hoglund and Wicks all fit the bill here, as do some of the more contact-oriented bats like Allen, Williams, Black and Norby.

 

 

19. Toronto Blue Jays

Jay Allen, CF, John Carroll Catholic HS (Florida), Florida commit

 

Toronto was in heavy at a Florida prep All-Star game to see Allen (where he played well). He's in play at the two picks before this and with Tampa Bay's picks just below, so this is the spot to take Allen if the Jays want him. Wake righty Ryan Cusick and Florida outfielder Jud Fabian are also frequently mentioned here.

 

 

20. New York Yankees

Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian HS (Florida), Florida commit

 

As usual, the Yankees are tied to a number of players this spring both because they have a lot of high-level scouts and people pay attention when they're in the yard. They've shied away from prep arms at their top picks in the past, but it looks like they're taking a longer look this year. If Painter gets much further down than this, he is a leading candidate (along with Hoglund) to be floated to a big bonus in the 30s. Bednar, Nebraska SS/RHP Spencer Schwellenbach and some of the prep bats a few picks ahead have been tied here.

 

 

21. Chicago Cubs

Jud Fabian, CF, Florida

 

The Cubs seem to be embracing variance more in recent years, and Fabian has that in spades with his massive upside and uneven spring. He may be a tough sign much lower than this, but it seems like someone will meet his price.

 

 

22. Chicago White Sox

Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge HS (Indiana), Indiana commit

 

Montgomery and SoCal prep SS Max Muncy have been tied to the White Sox most and at least one of them will be here, possibly both. After years of picking near the top with more conservative college prospects, teams expect the White Sox to make an upside play here.

 

 

23. Cleveland Indians

Carson Williams, SS/RHP, Torrey Pines HS (California), Cal commit

 

Williams fits the model teams well, with compelling two-way talent, a high-contact approach, a shortstop fit and he's young for the class. He'll begin as a hitter (that's his preference), but a number of teams prefer him on the mound. A falling college arm (Madden, Wicks, Bednar) or contact-oriented college bat (Black, Del Castillo, Norby) could make sense given Cleveland's history.

 

 

24. Atlanta Braves

Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State

 

Bednar has landing spots all over the 20s after a strong stretch run, including here to Atlanta. Schwellenbach, McGreevy and the college infielders (Black and Norby) also fit the specs here.

 

 

25. Oakland Athletics

Tyler Whitaker, RF, Bishop Gorman HS (Nevada), Arizona commit

 

Oakland has mostly been tied to prep bats, with Whitaker getting the most run. Alex Mooney is another one who could make it to their its pick.

 

 

26. Minnesota Twins

Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami

 

The Twins have leaned on big exit velocity power bats in recent drafts, so South Alabama's Ethan Wilson and Pennsylvania dual-sport outfielder Lonnie White Jr. both fit, but Minnesota has been tied to Del Castillo after a weak spring. He was seen by some as a top-10 prospect before the season began and could be a quick-moving bat for a team with good development.

 

 

27. San Diego Padres

Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic HS (Connecticut), UConn commit

 

Mozzicato has skyrocketed in the past few weeks to now being likely to go on the first day (36 picks). Like anyone they're considering (and like with another northeastern prep lefty Anthony Solometo), GM A.J. Preller has gone to see Mozzicato. McGreevy and rising prep SS Jackson Merrill have also been mentioned here.

 

 

28. Tampa Bay Rays

Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State

 

Another prevalent connection in this range is the Rays with Tennessee prep IF Cooper Kinney, but I'm projecting them to take Kinney at their next pick (34th overall), provided the Dodgers at the next pick end up passing. Black and Norby are both Tampa Bay's type and rival clubs expect a college pick here, then a prep and/or overpay at the next one. Prep RHP Michael Morales, prep 3B Wes Kath, prep CF Jay Allen and McGreevy have all been mentioned here, along with Eastern Illinois SS Trey Sweeney. Extra picks really capture the imagination of the industry.

 

 

29. Los Angeles Dodgers

Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest

 

Cusick probably belongs in this area on talent and some have said he reminds them of the Dodgers top pick last year, Louisville RHP Bobby Miller. The Dodgers have been tied to a number of upside types who could use a tweak or two to unlock their potential, since the Dodgers are arguably the best in baseball at that.

 

A couple notable names didn't make this projection for various reasons. There's enough in the medical history (and velocity) with Miami Ohio RHP Sam Bachman and East Carolina RHP Gavin Williams to cause teams to pause, as those are the two best indicators of future health. Those players aren't for everyone (opinions vary, some teams have guys already mentioned in this mock taken off their boards for medical concerns) but could sneak into the top 29 in the right situation.

 

Prices for prep prospects haven't been indicated in many cases, but there's far too many top-two round talents for them all to get paid, so scouts have said to expect some surprising stuff at the end of Day 1 and early in Day 2. Some 22-year-olds (Tommy Mace, Robert Gasser or Andrew Abbott) or medical risks could go dozens of picks higher than their true talent to lock in an underslot bonus, then float a prep prospect to a later pick once that prepster has already sailed past the area where slot recommendation equals their demands. My last full mock will be two rounds to try to account for some of these situations, or strong connections at second-round picks.

 

A couple more rising-out-of-nowhere prospects since my last stock watch who could sneak into the top couple of rounds or get big bonuses later: Iowa prep RHP Brody Brecht (6-foot-4 Hawkeyes wide receiver commit has been into the upper-90s but might be a tough sign) and South Dakota prepsters CF Chase Mason (great athlete with power/speed combo) and RHP Bransen Kuehl (a candidate for a second third-round-level bonus in a later round).

Edited June 18, 2021 by Slade

[Scion]

Safe is usually associated with high floor, but low ceiling

 

I know, that is what I said. I'm questioning the validity of the association, not that the perception exists.

[Spanky99]

Thanks Slade, cheers!

[metafour]

Can anyone post BA's newest mock that just released?

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

[Spanky99]

Paging Slade, paging Dr. Slade!

[Slade]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

 

By Carlos Collazo

 

The inaugural MLB Draft Combine wraps up this weekend and shortly after that, most teams will begin lining up their draft boards, meeting with their scouting departments and trying to gauge signability for players throughout the class.

 

Things could shift more once dollar figures start being thrown around, but the evaluation process for the 2021 class is largely finished.

 

RELATED: You can see all of our draft rankings, analysis & more in our new draft tracker

 

Teams have the luxury of fully scouting the College World Series with the July 11 draft date, but outside of that teams are trying to figure out how their additional time is best utilized. Similarly, advisors are trying to weigh the pros and cons of sending players to various summer leagues, new pre-draft events (like the combine) and team workouts.

 

Related: Updated BA 500 Draft Rankings

 

It’s been about a month since our last mock draft update and even with that time, the board looks quite similar. Uncertainty still looms at the top of the class, with teams behind the Pirates gaining no real clarity or confidence in who Pittsburgh is settling on for the first overall pick.

 

While the top of the board will look similar to those who have kept up with our mocks, there are a few notable players who are getting some late helium throughout the industry, including South Carolina prep outfielder Will Taylor, Mississippi State righthander Will Bednar, Indiana prep shortstop Colson Montgomery and East Carolina righthander Gavin Williams.

 

Players who could easily be fixtures in the first round but didn’t find a home in this mock draft include Mississippi righthander Gunnar Hoglund, Florida outfielder Jud Fabian, New Jersey high school flamethrower Chase Petty and prep outfielders Jay Allen (Florida) and Joshua Baez (Massachusetts).

 

Without further preamble, here’s Mock Draft V 5.0:

 

Position

 

All

Keyword

FILTER

29 Matches

 

1-25

SEE FULL LIST COLLAPSE ALL

Updated on: 6/25/2021

1

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Marcelo Mayer

Eastlake HS, Chula Vista, Calif.SS

Notes:

It sounds like Pittsburgh is still heavily considering a group of 3-4 players that includes Mayer, Jack Leiter, Jordan Lawlar and Henry Davis. We’ve heard rumors about Davis as a potential underslot option for the Pirates for some time now, and that also seems like a possibility with Kahlil Watson, though his likelihood of landing in the No. 1 spot seems less than the other names.

 

Mayer seems to be the favorite of the group to become the No. 1 pick, with perhaps Lawlar and Leiter the second most likely of the group to wind up being the selection. There’s been a solid amount of Mayer speculation however, so we’re going with the sweet-swinging lefthanded bat out of Southern California.

 

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Jordan Lawlar

Dallas Jesuit HSSS

Notes:

The same names mentioned with the Pirates are mentioned here, though names like Henry Davis and Kahlil Watson seem to become more likely at No. 2 than No. 1 based on what we’re hearing now. Watson has real heat at this spot, and has gotten more chatter in general at the top of boards in recent weeks than Lawlar, but some in the industry wonder if Lawlar’s season simply finishing earlier has helped cool the chatter about him specifically.

 

We still think the Rangers are in on the local product, who is the No. 1 player on the BA 500. If Lawlar doesn’t go in the first two spots, there’s a chance he gets to the 5-10 range—though again, that could also be a function of the timing of his season.

 

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Jackson Jobe

Heritage Hall HS, Oklahoma City, Okla.RHP

Notes:

If Mayer is available at this spot, it seems like the Tigers would jump at the chance to get him. With a potential floor of No. 3, it seems like Mayer has the highest range of outcomes of any player in the class. Obviously, Mayer isn’t available in this situation, so the attention turns to two other names who are consistently linked to Detroit: Jobe and Georgia shortstop Brady House.

 

House has been linked to the Tigers throughout the spring and we continue to hear that the organization really likes him, but they also seem to like Jobe—who pitch for pitch might grade out better than any arm in this year’s draft class. It would be unwise to forget about Leiter at this spot as well, but the three high school players are the common names we hear tied to the Tigers.

 

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4

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Jack Leiter

VanderbiltRHP

Notes:

Leiter’s name seems to be in play in each of the first three spots, but there’s also been a lot linking Boston and Leiter here at No. 4. A month ago we had Leiter at this spot but noted that both he and teammate Kumar Rocker had raised a few questions. Leiter has put up stupid numbers in his last three starts since then: 21 innings, three earned runs, nine hits, 36 strikeouts, six walks.

 

If Leiter isn’t available here the Red Sox might become a bit of a wild card, though both Lawlar and Louisville catcher Henry Davis would make sense on talent—though we haven’t heard much specifically linking those players to Boston. This is the presumed floor for Leiter at this point.

 

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5

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Kahlil Watson

Wake Forest (N.C.) HSSS

Notes:

Baltimore is linked to all of the top four high school shortstops and it sounds like Mike Elias has spent some real time on Watson, who has a ton of heat late and is a real possibility to come off the board in multiple spots in front of this pick.

 

Beyond shortstops, the Orioles still seem to be considering a wide range of players including everyone linked above—though we’re more skeptical about whether or not that includes Jobe. Harry Ford or Matt McLain could be dark horse candidates, and it’s worth pointing out that this decision-making group has shown a willingness to grab players further down the board on underslot deals to spread more money to later picks.

 

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Henry Davis

LouisvilleC

Notes:

Arizona might love Watson to get here at this spot, but there’s a real chance he doesn’t make it. Arizona seems unlikely to take either Jobe or House here, but Davis has a lot of the hitting traits the D-backs have targeted in recent years.

 

It’s both telling about this year’s class and potentially a sneaky value for Arizona to get the top college hitter in the class with the sixth overall pick. There’s some thinking that this spot could be the floor for Davis.

 

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Kumar Rocker

VanderbiltRHP

Notes:

Rocker’s name hasn’t gotten much play among the top five picks (just Detroit as a big maybe) recently, so it sounds like the 6-10 range or perhaps even beyond that is his most likely spot to come off the board.

 

It sounds like the Royals could be interested in any of the high school shortstops, so House could make sense at this spot since he’s still on the board, and an interesting dark horse candidate is South Carolina prep outfielder Will Taylor.

 

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8

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Brady House

Winder-Barrow HS, Winder, Ga.SS

Notes:

The main House link among the top five picks is Detroit, and with the Tigers selecting Jobe in this mock, that means House falls into the second half of the top 10. This would give Colorado back-to-back, power-oriented prep bats after taking Florida high school outfielder Zac Veen a year ago—though House’s track record of hitting is more extensive and he’ll stick on the dirt.

 

It might be interesting to see how Bill Schmidt’s promotion to interim general manager impacts how the team will run the draft—though Schmidt is a longtime voice in the organization who’s led the department since 1999, so perhaps this is more of a footnote than anything.

 

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9

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Will Taylor

Dutch Fork HS, Irmo, S.C.OF

Notes:

Taylor has gotten a lot of helium of late and the Angels are one of the teams that's worked him out in recent weeks. The Clemson football/baseball commit has gotten some buzz among the top 10 picks and it sounds like he’ll be a tough sign if he doesn’t go in a pretty good spot.

 

Outside of Taylor, the Angels are frequently linked with prep players including Georgia products Harry Ford and Bubba Chandler. Perhaps New Jersey high school outfielder Benny Montgomery could also make sense, as another athletic high school hitter who is getting some back-of-the-top-10 buzz. It's a bit of a tough draw for the Angels in this mock, with each of the top eight players in the class going off the board in front of them.

 

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10

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Sal Frelick

Boston CollegeOF

Notes:

It sounds like New York really likes Colson Montgomery, but if it wants him it might have to take him here given the amount of heat he has late in the first round. Frelick makes more sense for this pick on talent, but it’s worth pointing out that New York has been an aggressive ‘underslot early and overpay later’ team in recent years. Don’t be surprised if the Mets get creative.

 

It’s not a perfect comparison, but a Montgomery play has some similarities to the team’s Brett Baty pick in 2019. He was older for the class (Montgomery will be 19.4 on draft day) and a lefthanded-hitting, powerful prep infielder who the Mets took at No. 12 and gave an underslot bonus. They then got prep righthanders Josh Wolf and Matt Allan for overslot bonuses in the second and third rounds. Still, there’s a bit of a gap between where Baty was viewed on talent in that draft vs. Montgomery now and it might be too rich for No. 10.

 

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11

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Ty Madden

TexasRHP

Notes:

Power college arms like Madden and Sam Bachman have been frequently linked with the Nationals recently, and that could also mean this is a landing spot for Rocker in the scenario that he slides this far—which seems unlikely but is much more possible than we ever would have thought a few months ago.

 

We also think the Nationals could take Jobe if he made it here, and they were also heavy on Florida righthander Andrew Painter early in the spring, though this seems high for him currently.

 

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12

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Matt McLain

UCLASS

Notes:

Both of the two college names in front of this pick are mentioned with the Mariners, along with Colton Cowser and McLain, who is the pick in this version.

 

As has been the case for several years, college names seem to be all the rage for Seattle and that includes hitters like those we’ve mentioned as well as arms like Michael McGreevy, Will Bednar, Jordan Wicks and Gunnar Hoglund. McGreevy is interesting because he has a lot of similarities to George Kirby, who the Mariners picked at No. 20 in 2019, but this might be near the high point for McGreevy and the college bats disappear pretty quick.

 

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13

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Benny Montgomery

Red Land HS, Lewisberry, Pa.OF

Notes:

As we mentioned in the Angels pick, Benny Montgomery seems to be getting some legitimate attention in the back of the top-10 picks, and he’s been rumored to go off the board in the 10-20 range for months now.

 

At this point it could be between Montgomery and Taylor for the first high school outfielder off the board, which is a bit surprising as the industry typically hammers right-right high school outfield profiles. However, both Montgomery and Taylor are no-doubt center field profiles with excellent toolsets and athleticism, which changes the calculus on that stigma.

 

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Harry Ford

North Cobb HS, Kennesaw, Ga.C

Notes:

Like Montgomery, Ford has some traction among the top 10 picks and it sounds like he’s not going to fall much further than around 15 or so. Sure the Giants have taken catchers in recent years, but Ford is a bit of a different cat and could play all over the field.

 

The Giants were in pretty heavy on Bubba Chandler early in the season, so he could be an option, as could most of the top college players available on the board.

 

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15

New Brewers Logo (1)

Colton Cowser

Sam Houston StateOF

Notes:

This would represent good value for the Brewers by getting one of the safer college bats in the middle of the first round. The Frelick/McLain/Cowser trio is unlikely to be separated by too many picks, wherever they go.

 

We’ve heard Milwaukee is linked to Ford as well, so if he doesn’t go right in front of them like this mock has it, he could be an option.

 

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16

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Jordan Wicks

Kansas StateLHP

Notes:

Miami has done a great job with lefthander Jake Eder so far this season and they could have a chance to get the top lefthander in the class at this spot. Athletic high school hitters are also mentioned with the Marlins, so check out each of the high school bats in the 9-14 range of this mock, Bubba Chandler or Florida outfielder Jay Allen or perhaps a more bat-oriented profile like Mississippi shortstop Peyton Stovall or Indiana shortstop Colson Montgomery.

 

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17

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Bubba Chandler

North Oconee HS, Bogart, Ga.RHP/SS

Notes:

Cincinnati has a lot of slot money to work with thanks to a few comp round picks, so they should have the ability to get creative if they want. If Chandler doesn’t go to the Angels, the 15-25 range seems like a likely landing spot. The Reds are more commonly tied to high school names and this could be a potential landing spot for Florida high school righthander Andrew Painter.

 

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18

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Will Bednar

Mississippi StateRHP

Notes:

Bednar might have more helium than any college player in the class after how he’s looked in the College World Series, including a 15-strikeout game against Texas where he allowed one hit over six innings. At this point no one would be surprised to see him go off the board inside the top-20 picks. Another option could be Mississippi RHP Gunnar Hoglund. It has been difficult to find a landing spot for Hoglund (who could go anywhere in the teens or 20s), but St. Louis seems like a potential landing spot, especially after taking lefthander Zack Thompson out of Kentucky at No. 19 in the 2019 draft.

 

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19

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Andrew Painter

Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, Fla.RHP

Notes:

We’ve heard the Blue Jays tied to two of the better high school players in Florida recently, in Painter and Jay Allen. Painter’s range seems quite wide, which is common for prep righthanders, but the Blue Jays sound like a team that has invested a lot of looks into him. This could be a nice addition to a farm system that has one of the best collections of bats in baseball. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Toronto add yet another catcher to that farm system either, with Ford or Joe Mack.

 

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20

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Sam Bachman

Miami (Ohio)RHP

Notes:

Plenty of names have been tied to the Yankees, so they are tricky to figure out and it should be clear that at this point every team is difficult to peg. The number of players who are in legitimate consideration at the back of the first round is usually wide and this year perhaps wider than normal. A power arm like Bachman could go higher than this and just in terms of stuff, this would be great value for a New York organization that has never lacked for high-octane fastballs.

 

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21

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Joe Mack

Williamsville East HS, East Amherst, N.Y.C

Notes:

Mack wasn’t great out of the gate but he is getting some late upward momentum for his play. The Cubs have been tied to a few prep bats including Colson Montgomery, as well as the college arms that are coming off the board around this range like Bednar, Michael McGreevy and Gavin Williams.

 

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22

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Colson Montgomery

Southridge HS, Huntingburg, Ind.SS

Notes:

The White Sox have been linked to plenty of power-oriented prep bats, including Montgomery, James Wood, Peyton Stovall and Wes Kath. Montgomery seems to be one of the hottest names in recent weeks with plenty of landing spots, but both Chicago teams are mentioned most frequently with him.

 

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23

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Michael McGreevy

UC Santa BarbaraRHP

Notes:

McGreevy could easily be off the board 10 picks or so in front of this spot, but his fastball characteristics could allow him to fall a bit. He doesn’t have the rising fastball that everyone is obsessed with in the big league game right now, but It’s hard to not see a McGreevy/Cleveland fit making sense considering his command and age—he’ll turn 21 just three days before the draft. Hitterish preps like Mack and Peyton Stovall could make sense as well. Cleveland hasn’t been afraid to go after prep righthanders, so maybe they’d kick the tires on Petty, but he doesn’t seem like their type.

 

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24

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Gavin Williams

East CarolinaRHP

Notes:

Williams has some helium in a similar manner to Bednar, but to a lesser extent. He could go throughout the 20s and the Braves are consistently tied to college arms like McGreevy, Bednar, Ryan Cusick or Tommy Mace. They were heavy on Massachusetts prep outfielder Joshua Baez early in the season, but we haven’t heard that link as much lately. Spencer Schwellenbach is a name that gets tied to Atlanta as well.

 

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25

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Wes Kath

Desert Mountain HS, Scottsdale, Ariz.3B

Notes:

Oakland has been tied to Will Taylor and multiple Las Vegas high school players recently including Tyler Whitaker and Wes Kath. Michigan shortstop Alex Mooney is another prep hitter who has some connections to the A’s.

 

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26

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Adrian Del Castillo

MiamiC

Notes:

Del Castillo is a polarizing player even in this range, but Minnesota has found success with catchers who don’t get great defensive evaluations as amateurs and could value his bat and underclass track record more than others. Jud Fabian and Ethan Wilson could make sense for the Twins as well—the team is constantly tied to college bats, but every one on the board in this range has pretty significant question marks. Each of Trey Sweeney, Tyler Black and Connor Norby has been getting some late first buzz, but most in the industry seem to think they fit better right after the first. Still, you know the saying: college bats rise.

 

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27

New Padres Logo

Anthony Solometo

Bishop Eustace Prep, Pennsauken, N.J.LHP

Notes:

San Diego is tough to figure out because GM AJ Preller is seemingly everywhere, but we consistently hear the team tied heavily with Solometo, who should be in contention with fellow Northeast arm Frank Mozzicato for the first prep lefthander off the board. We had Solometo in this spot in our last mock and feel no reason to come off that pick today. Any high school player with loud tools would make sense for the Padres in any year as well.

 

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Connor Norby

East Carolina2B

Notes:

The Rays are linked to all sorts of demographics, but could be a team that jumps at a college performer like Norby, who controls the zone well and had one of the better offensive seasons in college baseball. Alex Mooney is a dark horse candidate for Tampa Bay as well and it sounds like the Rays could be on the long list of teams interested in Colson Montgomery, too

 

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29

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Carson Williams

Torrey Pines HS, San DiegoSS

Notes:

Mozzicato seems to just keep moving up boards, and there’s a chance he gets into the back half of the first round. We hear the Dodgers are tied to other preps like Carson Williams, Chase Petty and Lorenzo Carrier. Keep in mind the Dodgers don’t pick again until the back of the third round at pick 101 and have the second-smallest bonus pool after the Astros. That could limit how creative they’re able to get in terms of sliding players around or handing out over/underslot bonuses.

[Slade]

Scouting reports.

 

Andrew Painter

Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, Fla.RHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-6 | Wt: 230 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Florida

Age At Draft: 18.3

 

BA Grade: 60 | Risk: Extreme

Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 60

 

Painter established himself as the top pitcher in the high school class last summer and entered the season as the sole unanimous selection on Baseball America’s preseason All-America Team, as voted on by scouting directors. He was never the hardest thrower on the field, but it is difficult to find a pitcher in this year’s class who checks as many boxes as Painter—which has led to comparisons to 2020 prep righthander Mick Abel. Painter is a 6-foot-6, 230-pound righty with a buttery smooth delivery and a tremendously loose, easy arm action that should give him above-average or plus command in the future. It’s rare to put 60-grade control on a prep arm, but some scouts have even gone as far as putting 70 grades on his future control. In terms of stuff, Painter has a four-pitch mix that’s above-average or better across the board. This spring, Painter has run his fastball up into the upper 90s at his peak, and he’s held 94-95 mph deep into his outings, which is a solid tick up from the low 90s range he settled into last summer. His best secondary is a changeup in the low 80s that scouts put plus grades on, and he throws both a curveball and a slider. Painter’s breaking stuff has been inconsistent at times, but he’s shown enough flashes and general feel for spin for both to project as above-average in the future. Painter was just OK during his first few starts of the season, which caused him to lose his grip on the “consensus top prep arm” label of the class that he entered the season with. Despite that, and despite the industry’s general hesitance to spend significant draft capital on high school righthanders, Painter checks all of the boxes to become a first-round pick and shouldn’t make it to campus at Florida. Calvary Christian had three players drafted in the 2010s (Luke Jackson, Jake Eder, Raynel Delgado) but Painter should become the highest drafted of the bunch, and the highest ever for the program.

 

 

Joe Mack

Williamsville East HS, East Amherst, N.Y.C

Notes:

Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 203 | B-T: L-R

Commit/Drafted: Clemson

Age At Draft: 18.6

RapScore: 50

 

BA Grade: 55 | Risk: Extreme

Hit: 50 | Power: 60 | Run: 40 | Field: 55 | Arm: 60

 

Mack's older brother, Charles, was a sixth-round pick of the Twins in 2018 who signed for $500,000 out of high school and has reached Low-A Fort Myers. A Clemson commit like his older brother was, Joe will get drafted higher than Charles did and should be one of the top two catchers off the board along with Harry Ford from Georgia. He has consistently performed at a high offensive level on the major national showcase circuit the last three years, including one of the strongest summers among the top 2021 players last year despite not having a high school season last spring due to the pandemic. This spring, Mack's high school baseball season didn't start until May 14, just days after Mack was playing for the school's volleyball team in the state finals. Through the early weeks of the season, Mack looked like a hitter who was still getting his rhythm and timing back in the batter's box, with more swing and miss than he showed last summer. Given Mack's track record and unusual circumstances, scouts generally haven't seemed concerned. Those highest on Mack see an advanced hitter with good bat speed and a chance to hit for plus power in his prime, though others see more of a hit-first offensive profile with average power. A below-average runner, Mack isn't a polished defender, but he made significant progress behind the plate in 2020, increasing his chances to stick behind the plate. He is quick and a solid athlete for a catcher with an explosive lower half, good hands and plus arm strength to dial in pop times in the 1.9-second range in games. With Mack in first-round consideration, there should be a throng of national-level scouts at the rest of his games through mid June to evaluate him now that he's had more time to get back up to game speed.

[Spanky99]

Is it me, or is that an unusually high number of HS kids?