Jays Farm: Sleeper, Bust, New Legit Guy

[P2F]

I believe these have always been the three options of the past.

 

Pick a sleeper, a bust, and a new legit guy. This has always been a bit ambiguous, but it's just for fun anyway. Open to interpretation.

 

Let's go!

[Bobthe4th]

Sleeper: Connor Law

New legit: Forest Wall

Bust: Anthony Kay

[Orgfiller]

Sleeper: Thomas Hatch. He's only been with us for a short time but I think the Jays have unlocked his changeup as a legitimate pitch and he's hitting 96 in short stints. We could see him debut this season and I'd be pretty excited. HM: Maximo Castillo, I think he's really been overlooked, his minor league success at his age is very intriguing

 

Bust: Griffin Conine. That K rate just won't play and I think it's telling that despite him otherwise crushing A ball the Jays never called him up. HM: Patrick Murphy, I actually quite like him but the injuries + new delivery stuff has me concerned, I hope he's able to put those behind him

 

New Legit Guy: Edisson Gonzalez, don't hate him because he's listed as a pole stick, at worst that just means there's mass to be added. HM: Michael Dominguez, I think it was BlueRocky who put me on to this guy on the podcast. He seems interesting!

[P2F]

Sleeper: Thomas Hatch. He's only been with us for a short time but I think the Jays have unlocked his changeup as a legitimate pitch and he's hitting 96 in short stints. We could see him debut this season and I'd be pretty excited. HM: Maximo Castillo, I think he's really been overlooked, his minor league success at his age is very intriguing

 

Bust: Griffin Conine. That K rate just won't play and I think it's telling that despite him otherwise crushing A ball the Jays never called him up. HM: Patrick Murphy, I actually quite like him but the injuries + new delivery stuff has me concerned, I hope he's able to put those behind him

 

New Legit Guy: Edisson Gonzalez, don't hate him because he's listed as a pole stick, at worst that just means there's mass to be added. HM: Michael Dominguez, I think it was BlueRocky who put me on to this guy on the podcast. He seems interesting!

 

Whoa. You and I share the exact same taste in prospects evidently. Great list!

[BlueRocky]

Sleeper:

Griffin Conine: He led all blue jays prospects last year in home runs even after returning from a 50 game suspension. Most impressively he does it to all fields while still seeing deep counts and drawing 10%+ walks.

 

He put up a 169 wRC+ in his first season in Lansing. The K% is a concern but I think it’ll settle down to @25%, the eye is good and bat is good, it’s more about pitch selection with him. I really like the power in his bat and the guys down in Lansing rave about him. His power is potentially 70-grade while gunning down runners from RF with 97mph throws. The best OF arm in the system. He could be our version of Joey Gallo.

 

 

 

Bust:

Rowdy Tellez: I just don’t see him ousting other first baseman options.. especially if Vlad moves there. Shaw or Gurriel might also see time there. The power is good but he simply doesn’t hit or get on-base enough. He’s also not consistent enough to be a full-time DH. I’m cheering for the guy, but I don’t see a long term future here.

 

Teoscar Hernandez: Sorry dude not a fan.

 

 

New legit guys (MLB):

Danny Jansen: His defensive metrics have been solid, but the bat has been inconsistent in his rookie season. His incredible minor league numbers offensively have not yet translated, but I think he’ll do better in 2020.

He had 68 wRC+ and still produced 1.4 fWAR in 2019. If he hits closer to 90-100 wRC+ while keeping that defence he’s easily a 2-3 WAR catcher.

 

 

Cavan Biggio: I’ve been all over Biggio since double-A. He should be fine at second base, let him play there instead of moving him around every other day. His numbers should continue to improve, his walk rates and pitch recognition is incredible, he just needs to find that power stroke from AA/AAA. He should do great with all the short porches in right field over the AL east. I like him batting behind Bichette and in-front of Gurriel and Vlad, Biggio getting on base is something we’ll see often. I see a 3+ WAR player here.

 

 

Anthony Kay: I think if Kay can keep the HRs down, he has the stuff to be a solid backend starter. It’s so easy to forget he was pretty highly touted just a year ago and even got invited to the MLB Futures game (same as Pearson). His FB can tick up to the mid-90s and at times show a good curve and changeup. I think he can pickup a few things from the vets like Ryu or Shoemaker and develop more consistency.

 

I like his chances as a long term backend guy. And there’s nothing wrong with that. In world where Tanner Roark gets 24M/2yr and Chase Anderson’s getting 8.5/9.5M per year, we need guys like this.

 

 

 

Rising Prospects:

Alek Manoah: He’s got an electric fastball and a wipeout slider. Other secondaries improving. His stuff should play at Dunedin, I think he’s a top 100 prospect mid season. Has touched upper-90s in Vancouver.

 

Adam Kloffenstein: He’s grown a lot since we drafted him with Groshans. The raw stuff started to translate into results second half of his season in Vancouver. I like his pitch mix and he uses his 2-seamer well. The slider at times look devastating. @6-5, 240 he’s got the frame to throw gas like Pearson & Manoah. I think his stock will really go up by the time he reaches double-A.

 

Orelvis Martinez: Obvious reasons. The hit tool is mature beyond a typical 17-18 year old and the power tool is plus. Guy has speed for triples and playing a decent SS. Let’s see him in Lansing and cement his spot on the top 100s.

 

Miguel Hiraldo: Guys down in Lansing that enjoyed Otto Lopez will be thrilled to have Hiraldo this year. He can play all over the diamond but probably settle 2B/3B. Guy has five tools and real upside with the stick. Not as much power as a Groshans or Martinez but possibly higher floor. Still really young.

 

Josh Winckowski: If he stays healthy this year, he should be dominant in the FSL and perhaps NH, maybe get some love from other prospect lists. His FB is up several ticks to mid-90s, touches upper 90s. His secondaries have been polished, particularly the slider and changeup. The stuff is there, let’s see it in a higher level.

Edited February 28, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Spanky99]

Sleeper - Miguel Hiraldo/Josh Winckowski

 

New Legit - Adam Kloffenstein/Anthony Kay

 

Bust - Anthony Alford/Yennsy Diaz

[max silver]

Sleeper:

Julian Merryweather: this is the year we finally see the guy stay on the field and get a first hand look at the stuff. Reports last year had his fastball up to 100 MPH, so far in spring he's been reported to be sitting mid-upper 90's in limited action. He might be able to be a nice mid-season bullpen addition after the Jays finally move on from the silly notion of stretching him out as a starter

 

Dasan Brown: the guy had a decent debut in rookie ball putting up a 148 WRC+. He is a player with tools for days, but is super raw at this point. With potentially 80 grade speed if the bat is even average this guy could still be a star.

 

Bust:

Joey Murray: Trick pitch guys always leave me skeptical at best. Murray may have two good pitches with his "invisiball" and a decent curveball, but ultra-low velocity guys like this have a very small margin for error with regards to pitch location. His ultimate test will be in AAA if the Jays are able to find room for him in the rotation there, there is a huge logjam of deserving starters that need innings, Murray is just one of many. I have suspicions he is going to end up exposed in AAA and homeruns are going to be an issue. Hopefully he can prove me wrong.

 

New Legit Guy:

Riley Adams: The bat looks to be legit with him beginning to unlock his power potential. Reports about his defense are generally positive as well, including a very high caught stealing percentage. If he keeps the strikeouts under control he has potential to be a good MLB starting catcher very soon.

[TheHurl]

Sleeper: Kendall Williams. Gonna hit 100 on the gun. Finally a kid from Mississippi going to live up to their potential.

 

Bust: Can I pick Pardinho for a 3rd year in a row (although 2 years ago I called him a future bust. Now I'll call him post-bust. I legitimately like most other Jays prospects, so I'll pick Kirk just to piss off Boxy and the Jays COTF curse has not officially been broken.

 

New Legit Guy: Manoah. Three level jump this year. All Star every level.

[Pendleton]

Sleeper -

Really liked the upside of the Kendall Williams pick. If it all comes together he'll shoot up the rankings rather quickly.

 

Digging a bit deeper, IFA signing Estiven Machado got a really intriguing report from BA and he looks to have some really quick hands.

 

Bust -

I think Rowdy will fade into AAAA power guy obscurity. Reese is in for a tough year, Conine runs into a wall due to the contact issues.

 

New Legit Guy -

Moreno is on track to be a top 100 guy by mid season so I'm not sure if he counts here or not. Manoah is getting enough love already so I'm going to go with Kloff. His 2019 season was pretty encouraging and it wouldn't be surprising to see a big step forward into legit status this year.

[Boxcar]

Sleeper: Kendall Williams. Gonna hit 100 on the gun. Finally a kid from Mississippi going to live up to their potential.

 

Bust: Can I pick Pardinho for a 3rd year in a row (although 2 years ago I called him a future bust. Now I'll call him post-bust. I legitimately like most other Jays prospects, so I'll pick Kirk just to piss off Boxy and the Jays COTF curse has not officially been broken.

 

New Legit Guy: Manoah. Three level jump this year. All Star every level.

 

You're wrong about basically everything so your prediction is comforting

[Laika]

Kevin Smith and Julian Merryweather are my upper-minors sleepers. Lots of talent and tools there despite the recent setbacks.

 

Luis Quinones is my low-minors deep sleeper. You won't see him on any lists. He got suspended for PEDs in September so he'll barely pitch this year. But he throws hard!

 

One of Kloffenstein or Williams is bound to bust.

 

I still don't know what new legit guy means, but I think Leonardo Jimenez could catch some helium and fly up the rankings.

[Captain Adama]

I just want to say I take full credit for predicting the Kevin Smith bust last year.

 

Sleeper: Otto Lopez finally taps into his power and wrecks High A and Double A

Bust Riley Adams, he's the catching version of Conine. Adam Kloffenstein is my next guess.

Legit New Guy I guess Joey Murray? The guy has quietly wrecked every level of the minors he's been at with a decent age/level ratio. I guess legit new guy means he'll probably make a few top 100 lists this year

[saskjayfan]

Sleeper - Yorman Rodriguez

Bust - Derek Fisher

Legit new Guy - Alejandro Kirk(fatty can hit!)

[TheHurl]

You're wrong about basically everything so your prediction is comforting

 

i haven't been wrong on a bust prediction ever I don't think. Don't make me truly curse your fat little friend.

[BillyTheKid]

Sleeper - Yorman Rodriguez

Bust - Derek Fisher

Legit new Guy - Alejandro Kirk(fatty can hit!)

 

To be that fat at 21 and playing pro ball, gotta be doing a lot of s*** wrong... the talent is gonna get wasted

[Orgfiller]

To be that fat at 21 and playing pro ball, gotta be doing a lot of s*** wrong... the talent is gonna get wasted

 

[Boxcar]

i haven't been wrong on a bust prediction ever I don't think. Don't make me truly curse your fat little friend.

 

So you're basically Tercet

[saskjayfan]

To be that fat at 21 and playing pro ball, gotta be doing a lot of s*** wrong... the talent is gonna get wasted

 

For the life of me I don't understand how you can get that fat when your job is to play sports. I'm going on the hope that the organization steps in and gets some sort of jenny craig program in place for him. I know the eye test means nothing to anyone around here, but I just really like his swing. I hope fatty sheds a few pounds and because he has a lot of talent.

[The Cats Ass]

 

He was a generational fatty.

[Laika]

For the life of me I don't understand how you can get that fat when your job is to play sports. I'm going on the hope that the organization steps in and gets some sort of jenny craig program in place for him. I know the eye test means nothing to anyone around here, but I just really like his swing. I hope fatty sheds a few pounds and because he has a lot of talent.

 

It's baseball. Not exactly the most athletically demanding sport.

 

He's a minor leaguer - they make like $80 / week and only get fed hot dogs and grilled cheese by the org.

[Brownie19]

Man - just reading this gets me really excited to watch our system develop over the next 2-3 years. I love following our farm as much as I do the big club.

[Krylian]

It's baseball. Not exactly the most athletically demanding sport.

 

He's a minor leaguer - they make like $80 / week and only get fed hot dogs and grilled cheese by the org.

 

That would be a good argument if they were all fat.

[Laika]

That would be a good argument if they were all fat.

 

It's a good argument because the only goal of the argument was to help saskjaysfan "understand how you can get that fat when your job is to play sports" and mission was accomplished.