Offseason Roster Thread 2019-2020

[Abomination]

The reason they're rumoured to shed money is they're all in on Cole, just an fyi, they need to move someone like Darvish or Hendricks.

 

I wonder what teams are on Heyward's partial no trade?

[Grant77]

Sure, but the reason they're rumoured to shed money is they're all in on Cole, just an fyi, they need to move someone like Darvish or Hendricks.

 

Chatwood makes more than Hendricks next season.

[Spanky99]

Chatwood makes more than Hendricks next season.

 

Wow! Gotcha!

[jays4life19]

Jon Lester + Brennen Davis for Anthony Alford (or any non prospect). Then you don't let Lester pitch 200 innings so his option does not vest.

[Barkerfan23]

Sure, but the reason they're rumoured to shed money is they're all in on Cole, just an fyi, they need to move someone like Darvish or Hendricks.

 

The mlbtr article points to the Cubs being against the luxury tax and says nothing about cole. Please dont spread fake news

[TheHurl]

Jon Lester + Brennen Davis for Anthony Alford (or any non prospect). Then you don't let Lester pitch 200 innings so his option does not vest.

 

That's still $30M

[BTS]

Jon Lester + Brennen Davis for Anthony Alford (or any non prospect). Then you don't let Lester pitch 200 innings so his option does not vest.

 

If Lester is good enough to pitch 200 innings you'd maybe prefer to pay him 25M to pitch in 2021 than 10M to go away.

[jays4life19]

Damn i missed the 10M if option doesn't vest part.

[saskjayfan]

Jon Lester + Brennen Davis for Anthony Alford (or any non prospect). Then you don't let Lester pitch 200 innings so his option does not vest.

 

30 million dollars to acquire a prospect? I'd rather put 30 million dollars towards a quality free agent.

[BTS]

30 million dollars to acquire a prospect? I'd rather put 30 million dollars towards a quality free agent.

 

Lester isn't nothing. He'd get 15-20M on a 1-year deal if he were a FA. He's very unlikely to hit 200 IP, so you're pay 25M for one season of Lester (15M salary and 10M buyout), and upgrade from Alford to Brennan. It would be a good use of money IMO.

[jays4life19]

30 million dollars to acquire a prospect? I'd rather put 30 million dollars towards a quality free agent.

 

I missed the 10M part but with Lester you can bank on about 2 wins and Brennan Davis is legit but not worth the $$ with the buy out

[BTS]

I missed the 10M part but with Lester you can bank on about 2 wins and Brennan Davis is legit but not worth the $$ with the buy out

 

I think he's still worth it. Lester is overpaid by what? 5-7M? That's not too much cash to pay for Brennan Davis.

[Ray]

I'd quite comfortably do 3 years $60M for Ryu, and I don't think any other team beats that unless the Angels miss out on Cole and get desperate. Attach a vesting option for a 4th year and incentives for innings pitched. I truly think that would get it done.

 

Ryu, Lindblom, and Tsutsugo would be a great offseason all things considered. That would look much closer to a .500 team, and maybe with a couple breakouts even wildcard contention. I'd definitely be excited.

[Barkerfan23]

I'd quite comfortably do 3 years $60M for Ryu, and I don't think any other team beats that unless the Angels miss out on Cole and get desperate. Attach a vesting option for a 4th year and incentives for innings pitched. I truly think that would get it done.

 

Ryu, Lindblom, and Tsutsugo would be a great offseason all things considered. That would look much closer to a .500 team, and maybe with a couple breakouts even wildcard contention. I'd definitely be excited.

 

Ryu will stay on the west coast because 8ts a shorter flight back to Asia. Asian baseball players rarely pick the Jay's unless it's a necessity

[Ray]

Ryu will stay on the west coast because 8ts a shorter flight back to Asia. Asian baseball players rarely pick the Jay's unless it's a necessity

 

Toronto to Seoul is a 13 hr flight, same as LA to Seoul.

[saskjayfan]

I think he's still worth it. Lester is overpaid by what? 5-7M? That's not too much cash to pay for Brennan Davis.

 

Lester at 30 mil for 1 year is a massive overpay, not 5 to 7 million. Lester isn't getting this team to the post season and if that's the goal so the whole 30 mil is a sunk cost. It's a waste of money. Put 30 mil towards a 4 year contract to Ryu. Brennan Davis is far from a can't miss prospect. 4 and 70 might land Ryu. I'd rather have Ryu for 4 years than a prospect for 30 mil

[sdyment]

Can someone make a Winter Meetings thread now. It’s time to consolidate. Thx 👍

[BTS]

Lester at 30 mil for 1 year is a massive overpay, not 5 to 7 million. Lester isn't getting this team to the post season and if that's the goal so the whole 30 mil is a sunk cost. It's a waste of money. Put 30 mil towards a 4 year contract to Ryu. Brennan Davis is far from a can't miss prospect. 4 and 70 might land Ryu. I'd rather have Ryu for 4 years than a prospect for 30 mil

 

Cole Hamels and Jon Lester are the same player and Hamels just got 18M for 1 year. Lester looks like a 7M overpay if you take on his 2020 salary (15M) and buyout (10M), and a 17M overpay if you also take on the 10M signing bonus he's due next year.

 

Davis is clearly worth 7M. If the Cubs were inclined to make this deal, the only actual question should be how much of that 10M signing bonus would Toronto be willing to pay down to facilitate a deal.

[BTS]

How many FA starters are clearly better than Jon Lester? Just Cole, Strasburg, and Ryu?

[Daniel Labude]

You would pay Ryu 30M / year for two years, where based on his history, there's a strong likelihood he spends a fair chunk of it on the DL during at least one non-compete season? That's just silly. I could see it (although I think it's a massive overpay) if he was the final piece of the puzzle, but that's not the case.

 

What?

 

I was saying if Ryu didnt have health problems and if we were at a point where we could spend on a pitcher like him...he still isnt worth 30 mil a year

[Spanky99]

Toronto to Seoul is a 13 hr flight, same as LA to Seoul.

 

How many FA starters are clearly better than Jon Lester? Just Cole, Strasburg, and Ryu?

 

lol...

[Spanky99]

Lets get excited... there's a huge + to this, just a wake up call, and point. God Bless!

[Bobthe4th]

What?

 

I was saying if Ryu didnt have health problems and if we were at a point where we could spend on a pitcher like him...he still isnt worth 30 mil a year

 

I think Abom just quoted the wrong person - assume he meant to quote the person you quoted who suggested the 2 year deal.

[Deadpool]

What?

 

I was saying if Ryu didnt have health problems and if we were at a point where we could spend on a pitcher like him...he still isnt worth 30 mil a year

 

Yeah, I can't see a world where Ryu is worth $30M. $20M is in the ballpark of where I'd go on him, depending on term.

[saskjayfan]

Cole Hamels and Jon Lester are the same player and Hamels just got 18M for 1 year. Lester looks like a 7M overpay if you take on his 2020 salary (15M) and buyout (10M), and a 17M overpay if you also take on the 10M signing bonus he's due next year.

 

Davis is clearly worth 7M. If the Cubs were inclined to make this deal, the only actual question should be how much of that 10M signing bonus would Toronto be willing to pay down to facilitate a deal.

 

Lester's salary is 20 this year not 15 and a 10 mil buyout. Spending 45 mil on a guy who isn't going to move the needle on getting to the playoffs is option one. Option 2 is putting 45 million dollars into ryu who is a guy you could build upon in year one to give you an outside shot at being competitive year one and each year for the next 4 you would have a real pitcher who could help you build a winner around.

 

Adding a prospect who may or may not help you win 2 or 3 years down the road should not be the mindset. We need to start putting pieces in place to compete and win.

[Laika]

Brennen Davis is one of the Cubs' only really intriguing prospects. I know this is all just hypothetical but they really aren't shipping him out to save money.

 

In looking to dump salary the Cubs will be trying to offload Darvish, Heyward, and Chatwood. They would give Lester away or pay some cash considerations for someone to take him. You might be able to talk them into offloading Kyle Hendricks' contract for a prospect, which is what I would be most interested in.

[BTS]

Lester's salary is 20 this year not 15 and a 10 mil buyout. Spending 45 mil on a guy who isn't going to move the needle on getting to the playoffs is option one. Option 2 is putting 45 million dollars into ryu who is a guy you could build upon in year one to give you an outside shot at being competitive year one and each year for the next 4 you would have a real pitcher who could help you build a winner around.

 

Adding a prospect who may or may not help you win 2 or 3 years down the road should not be the mindset. We need to start putting pieces in place to compete and win.

 

A few comments:

 

1. He's not owed 45M.

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/chicago-cubs/

 

He's owed:

- 15M 2020 salary

- 10M buyout on his 2021 vesting option

- a 2.5M signing bonus on December 31st, and 10M next September

 

He's owed 37.5M

 

2. I don't understand why you're resistant to the idea that Lester's 2020 season is worth close to 20M. It's a rubber arm that's a good bet for 2-3 wins and we just saw Hamels get 18M. I think it would be pretty silly to be upset if the team signed a free agent Lester for 1/18. And that would still leave team payroll at like 90M. If Ryu actually wants to play here, they could add him too.

 

3. This conversation is silly because the framework of the deal clearly makes sense. The question to be addressed is how much of the signing bonuses and buyout Chicago would pay down, and what the sweetener is for Toronto. If the structure of the deal is Lester + Davis + cash for a fringe guy without value, the deal ranges from great to terrible depending on how much cash is coming Toronto's way. If the Cubs are paying down the entire 22.5M in bonus/buyout cash and Toronto is only on the hook for his 15M salary, the deal is a heist. If the Cubs don't pay anything and Toronto is on the hook for 37.5M, the deal is bad: they'd be paying like 20M for Brennan Davis. Somewhere in the middle there might be common ground. Or maybe not.

[Ex Player]

Toronto to Seoul is a 13 hr flight, same as LA to Seoul

I learned something new today

[xposbrad]

A few comments:

 

1. He's not owed 45M.

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/chicago-cubs/

 

He's owed:

- 15M 2020 salary

- 10M buyout on his 2021 vesting option

- a 2.5M signing bonus on December 31st, and 10M next September

 

He's owed 37.5M

 

2. I don't understand why you're resistant to the idea that Lester's 2020 season is worth close to 20M. It's a rubber arm that's a good bet for 2-3 wins and we just saw Hamels get 18M. I think it would be pretty silly to be upset if the team signed a free agent Lester for 1/18. And that would still leave team payroll at like 90M. If Ryu actually wants to play here, they could add him too.

 

3. This conversation is silly because the framework of the deal clearly makes sense. The question to be addressed is how much of the signing bonuses and buyout Chicago would pay down, and what the sweetener is for Toronto. If the structure of the deal is Lester + Davis + cash for a fringe guy without value, the deal ranges from great to terrible depending on how much cash is coming Toronto's way. If the Cubs are paying down the entire 22.5M in bonus/buyout cash and Toronto is only on the hook for his 15M salary, the deal is a heist. If the Cubs don't pay anything and Toronto is on the hook for 37.5M, the deal is bad: they'd be paying like 20M for Brennan Davis. Somewhere in the middle there might be common ground. Or maybe not.

 

Blue Jays don't need to buy wins for next year, or even the following really. I can't see 37.5m for him bringing that back in profits for the team, 2 wins or so for the current roster is nothing, it's not like attendance will shoot up 25%. No chance. The same reason this team wouldn't go crazy to add an expensive veteran bat or arm on 1 year deal. Maybe if it was an under 30 guy, and you throw in club options so it's a 4 or 5 year deal, but contention isn't a reality the next year or two. They are better off testing internal options to see who breaks out so they have a base in 2 years to build off.

[BTS]

Blue Jays don't need to buy wins for next year, or even the following really. I can't see 37.5m for him bringing that back in profits for the team, 2 wins or so for the current roster is nothing, it's not like attendance will shoot up 25%. No chance. The same reason this team wouldn't go crazy to add an expensive veteran bat or arm on 1 year deal. Maybe if it was an under 30 guy, and you throw in club options so it's a 4 or 5 year deal, but contention isn't a reality the next year or two. They are better off testing internal options to see who breaks out so they have a base in 2 years to build off.

 

Oakland won 68, 69, and 75 games from 2015 to 2017. People were wondering out loud if Billy Beane had lost it. They then put up consecutive 97-win seasons.

 

The Rays were under 0.500 for 4 straight years. Nobody saw them as contenders in 2018, but they've won 90 and 96 games the last two years.

 

The Twins lost 103 games in 2016. The last three years they've won 85, 78, and 101 games.

 

The Cubs won 73 games in 2014. They gave Jon Lester a big contract that offseason, even though everyone thought they were a couple years from contention. They won 97 games the following year and the WS in 2016.

 

The Braves won 72 games in 2017. Nobody saw them as contenders in 2018, but their young guys pushed and they've won consecutive division titles.

 

The point I'm trying to make is that this team isn't Miami or Baltimore. There is a plethora of very talented MLB-ready talent. It wouldn't be that surprising if the lineup, supplemented by a piece or two this offseason, ends up being one of the better groups of position players in baseball this year. It's not the most likely outcome, but it wouldn't be shocking in the same way it would be shocking if Baltimore ended up having top-10 lineup.

 

If you have an opportunity to add 2020 wins while subtracting nothing from the future, you do it. There is no reason to sit on a 70M payroll in 2020 if there are opportunities to add 30M in short-term deals that pushes the win projection up by 4-5. Probably it won't have playoff implications. But there's a small chance that it could. Winning 83 games on a 70M payroll should be a fireable offense.