MLB 2020 Draft

[Spanky99]

Look at it

 

 

Like I said Mike... that's an Olerud swing.

[Spanky99]

f*** it Veen, I'm in love with his swing! lol

[Deadpool]

I'd be quite happy with any of Lacy, Gonzales, Hancock or Veen.

 

 

 

Inb4 the Blue Jays take Garrett Mitchell, everyone is irate, then he turns out to be the best player in the draft!

 

I would be very okay with Garrett Mitchell, he's got his risks, but it wouldn't be outlandish for him to actually be the best player from this draft.

[Brownie19]

f*** it Veen, I'm in love with his swing! lol

 

I'm with you. I prefer Veen to Gonzales. There's not a good track record of 2nd basemen that high in the draft.

[CBlake]

Is Detmers a stretch at 5, like the notion of a polished lefty who will progress through the system quickly. High school kids are always the high reward, big risk types.

[Krylian]

Is Detmers a stretch at 5, like the notion of a polished lefty who will progress through the system quickly. High school kids are always the high reward, big risk types.

 

I don't want Detmers at 5. I don't feel his ceiling is as high as others available.

[Slade]

Is Detmers a stretch at 5, like the notion of a polished lefty who will progress through the system quickly. High school kids are always the high reward, big risk types.

 

I think that's a stretch, his stuff isn't as good as Hancock or Lacy and not a lot of projection left in his body. I always like the polished lefties but I think there are just better guys available in that spot.

 

This class is deep in arms this year. I wouldn't hate the pick but don't like the idea of passing on Veen or Gonzales.

[Spanky99]

What if the Royals take Emerson Hancock, and the choice was between Nick Gonzales or Zac Veen?

 

I want the next Christian Yelich or Cody Bellinger, booyah! Lets get Veen!

[Spanky99]

I think that's a stretch, his stuff isn't as good as Hancock or Lacy and not a lot of projection left in his body. I always like the polished lefties but I think there are just better guys available in that spot.

 

This class is deep in arms this year. I wouldn't hate the pick but don't like the idea of passing on Veen or Gonzales.

 

Agreed this was Longenhagen's thought on him the other day...

 

A Deep Dive on Reid Detmers

 

Unlike some of the players I just mentioned, I was not initially willing to move Louisville lefty Reid Detmers up based on his dominant four starts in 2020 (22 innings, 48 K, 6 BB). In fact, the opposite is true; I’m skeptical about his stuff playing to this level in pro ball. He doesn’t throw hard (88-93) and his fastball doesn’t clearly have the visual characteristics (points back to data acquisition hopes in third paragraph) consistent with fastballs that are effective against pro hitters despite mediocre velocity. I also worry because of how slow his curveball is, and because these kinds of big, looping curveballs that break like a cresting wave typically play best when paired with rising/riding fastballs, which Detmers’ does not appear to be.

 

There are totally reasonable counterarguments to this opinion — his curveball is freakish and he has mowed down big conference hitters since he set foot on campus — but I think they ignore the quality of big league hitters.

[Rusty_Savage]

Would Max Meyer be too much of a reach at 5?

[KevinGregg]

I know there is no such thing as a pitching prospect but I really want Hancock or Lacy. Theres nothing more exciting to me than a great pitcher and we actually have a chance to get someone who could one day be an ace.

[Spanky99]

I know there is no such thing as a pitching prospect but I really want Hancock or Lacy. Theres nothing more exciting to me than a great pitcher and we actually have a chance to get someone who could one day be an ace.

 

You mean like Pearson, SWR, or Manoah... anyhow, if either of those guys drop to us they'll likely be drafted by us.

[Brownie19]

How much weight do you guys put in the risk of drafting a pitcher - or even a second baseman at the 5th spot? I mean this a draft pick we cannot afford to f*** up. The track record of 2nd baseman selected in the top 10 isn't good and pitchers obviously come with more risk than positional players.

[Spanky99]

How much weight do you guys put in the risk of drafting a pitcher - or even a second baseman at the 5th spot? I mean this a draft pick we cannot afford to f*** up. The track record of 2nd baseman selected in the top 10 isn't good and pitchers obviously come with more risk than positional players.

 

BPA... whatever's on their board, I'd assume. A bat's always safer injury wise, but... I want Veen, if no one has heard that yet!

[glory]

I know nothing about amateur talent so I won't speak on the players themselves, but a 2B as a top 5 pick seems like a real bad idea. If it was a SS who had a chance to stick at short and had to move to 2B down the road, then that's more acceptable, but if it is strictly a 2B, there isn't much defensive wiggle room there. If offensive profile is similar, I'd take the CF over the 2B easily. Now, whether to draft a P or a position player is a different discussion. I hate pitching prospects (high volatility, get hurt easily, etc), but have to go with BPA.

[Spanky99]

I know nothing about amateur talent so I won't speak on the players themselves, but a 2B as a top 5 pick seems like a real bad idea. If it was a SS who had a chance to stick at short and had to move to 2B down the road, then that's more acceptable, but if it is strictly a 2B, there isn't much defensive wiggle room there. If offensive profile is similar, I'd take the CF over the 2B easily. Now, whether to draft a P or a position player is a different discussion. I hate pitching prospects (high volatility, get hurt easily, etc), but have to go with BPA.

 

He's talking about this fella... http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=215167, this fella... http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=210126 and this fella... http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=210224

[Brownie19]

BPA... whatever's on their board, I'd assume. A bat's always safer injury wise, but... I want Veen, if no one has heard that yet!

 

I know nothing about amateur talent so I won't speak on the players themselves, but a 2B as a top 5 pick seems like a real bad idea. If it was a SS who had a chance to stick at short and had to move to 2B down the road, then that's more acceptable, but if it is strictly a 2B, there isn't much defensive wiggle room there. If offensive profile is similar, I'd take the CF over the 2B easily. Now, whether to draft a P or a position player is a different discussion. I hate pitching prospects (high volatility, get hurt easily, etc), but have to go with BPA.

 

Gonzales had been playing SS this year, but it does sound like it's a given he's a 2nd baseman. If that's the case, than much like Tork, you better LOVE the bat as there's no fall back value defensively. Like Glory said, if he's a SS, who they think will have to move to 2nd, 3rd (or even CF) then those options are a lot more enticing.

 

There just isn't a lot of track record of 1st or 2nd basemen going top 5 in the draft. It makes me pause. Maybe you could argue Gonzalez is like Anthony Rendon?

 

Spank - I'm with you. I want Veen, although there's obviously also risk with high school kids too. I was just curious what people thought about the risks of certain types of players.

[BlueRocky]

I know there is no such thing as a pitching prospect but I really want Hancock or Lacy. Theres nothing more exciting to me than a great pitcher and we actually have a chance to get someone who could one day be an ace.

How much weight do you guys put in the risk of drafting a pitcher - or even a second baseman at the 5th spot? I mean this a draft pick we cannot afford to f*** up. The track record of 2nd baseman selected in the top 10 isn't good and pitchers obviously come with more risk than positional players.

Gonzales had been playing SS this year, but it does sound like it's a given he's a 2nd baseman. If that's the case, than much like Tork, you better LOVE the bat as there's no fall back value defensively. Like Glory said, if he's a SS, who they think will have to move to 2nd, 3rd (or even CF) then those options are a lot more enticing.

 

There just isn't a lot of track record of 1st or 2nd basemen going top 5 in the draft. It makes me pause. Maybe you could argue Gonzalez is like Anthony Rendon?

 

Spank - I'm with you. I want Veen, although there's obviously also risk with high school kids too. I was just curious what people thought about the risks of certain types of players.

 

The Blue Jays definitely don’t want to miss on this pick, they haven’t drafted this high since Vernon Wells in ‘97 and Romero in ‘05. But they also need to weigh floor vs upside or else you’ll end up in another situation drafting Deck McGuire and missing on Chris Sale (2010). If given a choice I would gamble on higher upside at least you can dream on.

 

Gonzales has probably the most sure-thing bat in this draft class. Yes he’s been exclusively playing SS this season, though most scouts think it’s a stretch, SS is not out of the question. I think you draft him as a SS and give him a shot there. There isn’t a lot of track record of second baseman in the top 10, but scouts have drawn comparisons to Keston Hiura (+plate discipline) and Carlos has mentioned a Dustin Pedroia comp, we could do worst.. that’s a legit top-of-the-order bat.

 

If we had to put hit/power grades on the top 3 college guys, my best estimate would be:

 

Spencer Torkelson: 55 hit / 70 power

Austin Martin: 65 hit / 50 power

Nick Gonzales: 60 hit / 60 power

 

If you look at pure draft history in the past decade, top 10 college lefties have been generally busts outside a rare exception like David Price, while righties have a half & half mix of stars and busts. By this account, Asa Lacy would be a no-no, but of course every prospect is unique and it’s silly to judge a prospect in that regard. In this specific case though, I would still prefer Emerson Hancock despite the industry ranking.

Edited April 28, 2020 by BlueRocky

[max silver]

Gonzales had been playing SS this year, but it does sound like it's a given he's a 2nd baseman. If that's the case, than much like Tork, you better LOVE the bat as there's no fall back value defensively. Like Glory said, if he's a SS, who they think will have to move to 2nd, 3rd (or even CF) then those options are a lot more enticing.

 

There just isn't a lot of track record of 1st or 2nd basemen going top 5 in the draft. It makes me pause. Maybe you could argue Gonzalez is like Anthony Rendon?

 

Spank - I'm with you. I want Veen, although there's obviously also risk with high school kids too. I was just curious what people thought about the risks of certain types of players.

 

If Gonzalez bat is as legit as it appears to be, you would be able to put together a pretty crazy offensively minded infield. Imagine Groshans, Bichette, Gonzalez and Guerrero Jr. manning the infield, that team would put up some ridiculous offensive numbers.

[BlueRocky]

If Gonzalez bat is as legit as it appears to be, you would be able to put together a pretty crazy offensively minded infield. Imagine Groshans, Bichette, Gonzalez and Guerrero Jr. manning the infield, that team would put up some ridiculous offensive numbers.

 

I would add Orelvis Martinez, Miguel Hiraldo, and Alejandro Kirk to this mix. Maybe even Gabriel Moreno and Otto Lopez based on their development. It would be nice to genuinely have a legit position player come up through the system annually, kinda like the Cardinals.

[Spanky99]

I would add Orelvis Martinez, Miguel Hiraldo, and Alejandro Kirk to this mix. Maybe even Gabriel Moreno and Otto Lopez based on their development. It would be nice to genuinely have a legit position player come up through the system annually, kinda like the Cardinals.

 

Or the Jays run under Gillick.

[BlueRocky]

Would Max Meyer be too much of a reach at 5?

 

Not too high if you are convicted in his ceiling. He throws mid to upper 90s, touches triple digits and has a plus-plus slider. Kyle Glaser actually mocked Max Meyer ahead of Emerson Hancock recently in the baseball america podcast.

 

The smaller frame and lack of track record is what’s keeping him from being a top 5 lock. He’s the fastest riser in the 2020 class and looked very impressive in the shortened season, but guys at the top of the draft tend to have fewer question marks.

 

His draft stock would’ve been higher if COVID didn’t end college baseball early, with 10 weeks of scouting suddenly missing from their profile. Even with the 10 extra weeks it’s not a huge sample of Meyer as a starter. I’ve heard comps like Marcus Stroman, though not really a perfect comp, Meyer touches 97-98 with regularity.

 

It’s more likely a team in the 8-15th pick would be comfortable taking that gamble and he could turn out to be really good.

Edited April 28, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Beans]

BPA... whatever's on their board, I'd assume. A bat's always safer injury wise, but... I want Veen, if no one has heard that yet!

 

... Do you like his swing?

[Spanky99]

... Do you like his swing?

 

f***ing Love IT!!! KGJ/Johnny O/Yelly and Cody 2.0...

[Beans]

lol, I know, me too!

[BlueRocky]

Agreed this was Longenhagen's thought on him the other day...

 

A Deep Dive on Reid Detmers

 

Unlike some of the players I just mentioned, I was not initially willing to move Louisville lefty Reid Detmers up based on his dominant four starts in 2020 (22 innings, 48 K, 6 BB). In fact, the opposite is true; I’m skeptical about his stuff playing to this level in pro ball. He doesn’t throw hard (88-93) and his fastball doesn’t clearly have the visual characteristics (points back to data acquisition hopes in third paragraph) consistent with fastballs that are effective against pro hitters despite mediocre velocity. I also worry because of how slow his curveball is, and because these kinds of big, looping curveballs that break like a cresting wave typically play best when paired with rising/riding fastballs, which Detmers’ does not appear to be.

 

There are totally reasonable counterarguments to this opinion — his curveball is freakish and he has mowed down big conference hitters since he set foot on campus — but I think they ignore the quality of big league hitters.

 

Detmers had 48 strikeouts to 6 walks in 22 innings and 4 starts this year.. that’s a ridiculous 19.64 K/9 and 2.45 BB/9.

 

If you think that’s an anomaly, Detmers led the nation last season with 167 strikeouts to 33 walks in 113.1 IP, good for 13.29 K/9 over a full season.. as a starter.

 

In comparison, Hancock had 97 Ks and Lacy had 130 Ks.

 

Guys with low-90s velo don’t get highly touted and generally fall into the mid-first round, but you can’t argue with the results. Whatever team takes Detmers in the 8-20 range is probably gonna be happy with their pick.

Edited April 28, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Spanky99]

lol, I know, me too!

 

I know you know, lol. What I know! f*** that swing is sweet!

[Spanky99]

Detmers had 48 strikeouts to 6 walks in 22 innings and 4 starts this year.. that’s a ridiculous 19.64 K/9 and 2.45 BB/9.

 

If you think that’s an anomaly, Detmers led the nation last season with 167 strikeouts to 33 walks in 113.1 IP, good for 13.29 K/9 over a full season.. as a starter.

 

In comparison, Hancock had 97 Ks and Lacy had 130 Ks.

 

Guys with low-90s velo don’t get highly touted and generally fall into the mid-first round, but you can’t argue with the results. Whatever team takes Detmers in the 8-20 range is probably gonna be happy with their pick.

 

Possibly, that was Eric, mate? I wouldn't take em at 5.

[Krylian]

Detmers had 48 strikeouts to 6 walks in 22 innings and 4 starts this year.. that’s a ridiculous 19.64 K/9 and 2.45 BB/9.

 

If you think that’s an anomaly, Detmers led the nation last season with 167 strikeouts to 33 walks in 113.1 IP, good for 13.29 K/9 over a full season.. as a starter.

 

In comparison, Hancock had 97 Ks and Lacy had 130 Ks.

 

Guys with low-90s velo don’t get highly touted and generally fall into the mid-first round, but you can’t argue with the results. Whatever team takes Detmers in the 8-20 range is probably gonna be happy with their pick.

 

How projectable are those results in the MLB given the average FB.

[Spanky99]

How projectable are those results in the MLB given the average FB.

 

Yeah, they make em out like a guy that's maturing early, like what they said of Stroman. Who knows...