Charlie Montoyo Egregious Mistake Tracking Thread

[Brownie19]

Osuna (tanking his own value) for Giles, Paulino, and Perez was also a pretty good move especially if Giles gets flipped again and Perez becomes anything at all.

 

If Sopko is a even half decent the Martin trade will turn out great factoring in the idea was to open playing time for Jansen.

 

Pearce for Santiago Espinal trade was basically a win for both sides, considering his injury history and Espinal is not a bad lottery ticket.

 

Axford for Copping was basically a free asset.

 

Granderson for Demi Orimoloye was another lotto ticket swap.

 

Also this is not a direct trade acquisition, but letting Encarnacion walk and drafting Nate Pearson and convincing Bichette to sign with us might be the biggest supporting moves to the Vladdy era that took years to pay off.

 

s*** - I knew I missed a few inconsequential trades!

[Ray]

s*** - I knew I missed a few inconsequential trades!

 

People seem to forget the Liriano/McGuire/Ramirez for Drew Hutchison trade which was fantastic. Liriano put up a sub 3 ERA down the stretch and kept us alive in that wildcard game, plus we added two Top 100 guys to our depleted farm at the time. All for Drew Hutchison.

[Brownie19]

People seem to forget the Liriano/McGuire/Ramirez for Drew Hutchison trade which was fantastic. Liriano put up a sub 3 ERA down the stretch and kept us alive in that wildcard game, plus we added two Top 100 guys to our depleted farm at the time. All for Drew Hutchison.

 

Those types of facts won't be tolerated in here Ray.

[Terminator]

What is this nonsense? Let's break it down.

 

Good:

Woodman for A.Diaz trade

A.Diaz for Thornton trade

Dominic Leone & Conner Greene for Grichuk

Pillar for Hansen, Law & Juan De Paula (Pillar's been worth -0.1 WAR for the Giants, while Law's been worth 0.2 WAR for the Jays. Pillar sucks)

 

Bad:

Happ for Drury & McKinney

Liriano for Teoscar

Rodrigo Orozco for Socrates Brito

 

Inconclusive:

Oh for Spanberger & Wall

Loup for Jacob Waguespack

Martin for Andrew Sopko and Ronny Brito

JD for Merryweather

 

You're going to rip Atkins for the return they got when trading key assets such as Liriano, Rodrigo Orozco and a 1/8 of a season of Happ? C'mon man.

 

I mean f***...even if all the trades under "inconclusive" fail (which most of them will) - there's been no value or assets traded away outside of an 1/8 of a season of JD and Happ. When you factor in that we ended up with Grichuk and Thornton for NOTHING - I find it pretty hard to rip Atkins.

 

Let's wait until they actually have assets before we rip what they are getting in return for them. The cupboards were f***ing bare here when they arrived.

 

I feel like this is the 3rd time I've had to explain this.

 

The trades have been fine. They've traded a bunch of crap and got little in return. Looks like 2 guys might stick in Grichuk (an average regular who we have since locked up long term) and Thornton (a backend starter).

 

They've basically ignored FA, despite prices being ridiculously low, so they could play Teoscar, McKinney, Gurriel, Drury, etc., none of which are panning out. It's almost remarkable that they've rolled the dice with over half the lineup and haven't hit on a single guy this year. Their moves to patch the rotation have been just as disastrous. Jonathan Davis being the leadoff hitter, making emergency May trades for Edwin Jackson and starting a knuckleballer like Feireband....yeesh.

 

The end result is a s***** team with TONS of holes, a good but top heavy farm system that won't be able to patch all the holes, and a clean slate with the payroll. I'm not seeing a quick path back to .500 (or even being decent) here, especially with a bad rotation and bullpen that is only going to get worse once we trade Stroman and Giles.

[Grant77]

Grant - that was meant to be a bit of a joke.....although Law's been better for us than Pillar's been for SF. You have no idea if he had 'real' trade value. No idea why you'd suggest that. For those suggesting he had value to the current club. I can buy that to some extent (fans love him)...but let's be honest, he's posting a -0.4 WAR through the first quarter of this year. He hasn't actually provided value to anyone this season. I'm sure it won't end this bad/quickly for Pillar, but he's probably looking at a 1.0 WAR season at best.

 

We can only assume that Pillar had trade value that corresponds to his projections and salary, which was a lot more than we got. The fact that he has struggled with SF is irrelevant at this point.

 

If you are right and Law turns into something then that's great, but he has pitched like crap and isn't a major league calibre pitcher in my opinion.

[P2F]

I thought some of you guys knew a lot better than to use ~150 PA to completely close the book on MLB players, but I guess I was wrong.

 

There are some truly awful takes in this thread and pretty much all of the other ones.

 

Do the Jays suck? Most likely.

Are there any long-term building blocks here? Very few.

But there could still be some decent to good assets among the players that have struggled in the early-going.

 

Let's not kill ourselves just yet.

[Spanky99]

I thought some of you guys knew a lot better than to use ~150 PA to completely close the book on MLB players, but I guess I was wrong.

 

There are some truly awful takes in this thread and pretty much all of the other ones.

 

Do the Jays suck? Most likely.

Are there any long-term building blocks here? Very few.

But there could still be some decent to good assets among the players that have struggled in the early-going.

 

Let's not kill ourselves just yet.

 

Thank you!

[Ex Player]

I enjoy watching baseball even when we have a s*** team, so it doesnt matter much to me

[Ray]

The trades have been fine. They've traded a bunch of crap and got little in return. Looks like 2 guys might stick in Grichuk (an average regular who we have since locked up long term) and Thornton (a backend starter).

 

They've basically ignored FA, despite prices being ridiculously low, so they could play Teoscar, McKinney, Gurriel, Drury, etc., none of which are panning out. It's almost remarkable that they've rolled the dice with over half the lineup and haven't hit on a single guy this year. Their moves to patch the rotation have been just as disastrous. Jonathan Davis being the leadoff hitter, making emergency May trades for Edwin Jackson and starting a knuckleballer like Feireband....yeesh.

 

The end result is a s***** team with TONS of holes, a good but top heavy farm system that won't be able to patch all the holes, and a clean slate with the payroll. I'm not seeing a quick path back to .500 (or even being decent) here, especially with a bad rotation and bullpen that is only going to get worse once we trade Stroman and Giles.

 

It's almost like they want to see what they have in their own young players to see who'll stick and who won't as opposed to unnecessarily paying free agents when they don't need to. Most teams in rebuilds don't spend on free agents/make big trades until their competitive window is either open or close to being so.

 

The Feirebend/Jackson situation is a result of 4 of our other MLB capable starts being injured. You take 4 starters out of any rotation and you'll have a mess on your hands. The Yankees have had a similar amount of injuries to their rotation and they literally had to start Chad Green the other day. And they're actually competing.

 

You'd also be surprised at how quickly teams with good farm systems turn around. The 2014 Astros/Cubs, all lost ~90 games only to make the playoffs the next season. Both of them also had 2 of the youngest teams in the league giving younger players a shot to see who could and couldn't stick, just like we're doing now.

[Brownie19]

We can only assume that Pillar had trade value that corresponds to his projections and salary, which was a lot more than we got. The fact that he has struggled with SF is irrelevant at this point.

 

If you are right and Law turns into something then that's great, but he has pitched like crap and isn't a major league calibre pitcher in my opinion.

 

0.2 WAR in 8 innings....same as Sam Gavigilio has provided in 32 innings! hard to imagine.

[Terminator]

The Feirebend/Jackson situation is a result of 4 of our other MLB capable starts being injured. You take 4 starters out of any rotation and you'll have a mess on your hands. The Yankees have had a similar amount of injuries to their rotation and they literally had to start Chad Green the other day. And they're actually competing.

 

I hear you but that's not a good excuse IMO. When you sign injury prone 30-somethings like Buccholz and Shoemaker don't get caught with your pants down when they get hurt.

[Terminator]

I thought some of you guys knew a lot better than to use ~150 PA to completely close the book on MLB players, but I guess I was wrong.

 

There are some truly awful takes in this thread and pretty much all of the other ones.

 

Do the Jays suck? Most likely.

Are there any long-term building blocks here? Very few.

But there could still be some decent to good assets among the players that have struggled in the early-going.

 

Let's not kill ourselves just yet.

 

Who do you specifically think will be a decent to good asset?

 

-Jansen should be solid

-Teoscar has almost 900 PAs and little to show for it, turning 27 this year

-Drury has 1200 and has performed even worse than Teoscar with the bat, turning 27 this year too

-McKinney has almost 300 PAs and a negative half WAR to his name, going to be 25 this year

-Tellez is actually an average bat but that's not good enough given his poor defense and baserunning

-Gurriel in 300 PAs is replacement, he'll be 26 in less than 5 months

-Surely you don't mean Urena, might have a decent glove though

-Then there are the Brito and Davis' of the team who are barely worth mentioning

 

So yeah, you say some of these guys will be decent or good but I can't tell who are you actually talking about other than Jansen.

[Ray]

I hear you but that's not a good excuse IMO. When you sign injury prone 30-somethings like Buccholz and Shoemaker don't get caught with your pants down when they get hurt.

 

It's not really an excuse. It's the reality of a situation. Their rotation has been hit harder on the injury front than most teams. Most teams don't exactly have good 8th starters.

[Ray]

-Jansen should be solid

-McKinney has almost 300 PAs and a negative half WAR to his name, going to be 25 this year

 

Billy McKinney: 278 PA, 97 OPS+

Danny Jansen: 218 PA, 77 OPS+

 

So Jansen should be solid despite the fact that McKinney has actually been a better hitter through a nearly comparable number of PA. If you want to give Jansen more rope because of him catching, fine. But it's unfair to write of McKinney as what he is when he's been a better hitter than Jansen so far.

[Ex Player]

-Tellez is actually an average bat but that's not good enough given his poor defense and baserunning

Average bat?? Not sure I agree with that, Tom.

He's on course to hit between 25 to 30 homers, thats not average

[Terminator]

Billy McKinney: 278 PA, 97 OPS+

Danny Jansen: 218 PA, 77 OPS+

 

So Jansen should be solid despite the fact that McKinney has actually been a better hitter through a nearly comparable number of PA. If you want to give Jansen more rope because of him catching, fine. But it's unfair to write of McKinney as what he is when he's been a better hitter than Jansen so far.

 

You have to consider minor league numbers as well and McKinney hasn't exactly shined there either. On top of it, he's in the bottom 5% of exit velocity this year which is actually kind of hard to believe. I just don't see what there is to like with him right now.

[Terminator]

Average bat?? Not sure I agree with that, Tom.

He's on course to hit between 25 to 30 homers, thats not average

 

He's slashing .248/.302/.467. League average this year is .244/.319/.418 but that includes NL teams and their pitchers hitting. Rowdy is basically an average bat. Could get to solidly above average but even then he's one of the slowest runners in the league and a poor fielder.

[Ex Player]

He's slashing .248/.302/.467. League average this year is .244/.319/.418 but that includes NL teams and their pitchers hitting. Rowdy is basically an average bat. Could get to solidly above average but even then he's one of the slowest runners in the league and a poor fielder

He's still only 24 though. Wont hit his peak for another 4 to 5 years.

I think in the end he'll turn into good slugger

[Ray]

You have to consider minor league numbers as well and McKinney hasn't exactly shined there either. On top of it, he's in the bottom 5% of exit velocity this year which is actually kind of hard to believe. I just don't see what there is to like with him right now.

 

AAA numbers:

Jansen: .884 OPS

McKinney: .823 OPS

 

I'll concede the .60 point difference, but still not enough to give up on someone.

[Ray]

He's still only 24 though. Wont hit his peak for another 4 to 5 years.

I think in the end he'll turn into good slugger

 

Nah don't you get it? 300 PA is all that's needed to write off a player as what he is. There's absolutely no way that any player ever will improve.

[Ex Player]

Plus he's built like a brick shithouse. When Mae interviewed him after the game she looked she could fit inside him 3 times

[wk680]

Plus he's built like a brick shithouse. When Mae interviewed him after the game she looked she could fit inside him 3 times

 

It occured to me yesterday, that Tellez has a body very reminiscent of Big Pappi (and just hit an Ortiz-esque long single to straight away center field). Yeah that slow baserunning is a concern but man he hits the ball hard.

[P2F]

Who do you specifically think will be a decent to good asset?

 

-Jansen should be solid

-Teoscar has almost 900 PAs and little to show for it, turning 27 this year

-Drury has 1200 and has performed even worse than Teoscar with the bat, turning 27 this year too

-McKinney has almost 300 PAs and a negative half WAR to his name, going to be 25 this year

-Tellez is actually an average bat but that's not good enough given his poor defense and baserunning

-Gurriel in 300 PAs is replacement, he'll be 26 in less than 5 months

-Surely you don't mean Urena, might have a decent glove though

-Then there are the Brito and Davis' of the team who are barely worth mentioning

 

So yeah, you say some of these guys will be decent or good but I can't tell who are you actually talking about other than Jansen.

 

My point was a general one - that we should all know better than to use such a small sample of PA to entirely write off these guys. I saw a lot of optimism around here six weeks ago and that's all but gone now, so we must be using the first 48 games to determine that the players we were previously hopeful for are actually awful.

 

Personally, I'm still just as hopeful as ever that Jansen becomes a star and that a couple of Drury, Hernandez, Gurriel, Tellez, and McKinney become average players. I also still think there could be a little more offensively in the tank for Grichuk than we've seen so far. Pannone, too, I think could make an excellent relief pitcher in either a long-man or setup role.

 

In hindsight, the writing was on the wall for this season when the Jays drafted Elvis Luciano in the Rule 5 draft with the intention of keeping him on the major league club all season. I know this season has been pretty unwatchable for some lengthy spells, I know that the team is not where we hoped it would be regarding the supporting cast, I know that we may be further away from contention than we had hoped, and I know that a season like this one tends to bring out the worst types of fans and the worst in some of the best posters. But let's not lose sight of the fact that this team is rebuilding, as we knew before the season began. There are some very interesting close-proximity prospects on the way such as Biggio, Bichette, Murphy, and Pearson, and we'll soon learn how good they are. This season is about determining what the Jays have in types like Drury, Gurriel, Hernandez, Tellez, McKinney, Davis, Urena, etc., so the FO knows what they need to add to this team when the young core is ready and has established itself.

 

Did this nothing approach they chose absolutely have to be taken? I honestly don't think it did, but, from a business standpoint, it makes a lot of sense to cut as many costs as possible if the team executives don't believe the team can compete with the likes of the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox. They clearly didn't believe that this team could. Fault them for that if you like, but it is what it is.

 

You might call me an optimist, but for what it's worth, I wouldn't label myself as one - more of a realist. I feel like we need to wait out this season to see where we're at. We might see a couple or more of the supporting cast emerge as viable to average major league players. Of course, maybe there's literally nobody worth a damn on this roster but Vlad, Smoak, Stroman, Giles, and maybe Grichuk, and at the end of the season we can look back and have a good laugh at this post.

Edited May 23, 2019 by P2F

[glory]

Billy McKinney: 278 PA, 97 OPS+

Danny Jansen: 218 PA, 77 OPS+

 

So Jansen should be solid despite the fact that McKinney has actually been a better hitter through a nearly comparable number of PA. If you want to give Jansen more rope because of him catching, fine. But it's unfair to write of McKinney as what he is when he's been a better hitter than Jansen so far.

 

One is considered a positive defensive player at a critical defensive position with a minor league track record of very good offensive performance (K/BB rate in particular) and was a top prospect in baseball as of the start of this season, while the other plays a s*** OF, has no base running value, and even in the minors was pulling off sub-.300 OBP's in AAA. I don't think it needs to be explained why Jansen would get more rope than McKinney.

 

What you're basically saying is "this fringe guy has no redeeming qualities but it's only 150 plate appearances so it's too early". I mean, you can use that logic with anyone. Teoscar, McKinney, Brito, Hanson. Just as you did by bringing up McGuire and Ramirez earlier. Those guys do not project to be anything beyond bench players (McGuire moreso). Just because you can rattle off a bunch of names it doesn't mean any of those guys are good. That's where the disagreement comes from in this thread. Yeah, Atkins acquired a s*** ton of prospects in the past two years. How many of them are any good? Majors or Minors? Any top 100's? Anyone you can reasonably project to be a starting player on a playoff contender down the road? That's a pretty important distinction.

 

If we are just stockpiling a bunch of back end 40 man roster depth, and throwing a party because we didn't give up much to get those players, that's not good.

[Brownie19]

Average bat?? Not sure I agree with that, Tom.

He's on course to hit between 25 to 30 homers, thats not average

 

We don't use HR's to judge abilities around here Rob. FWIW, Tellez has a wRC+ of 109 after his HR tonight. He's 9% better than the average hitter. That's not good enough when you factor in his awful base running and defense. That said, I love his swing path and strength. If he can drop his K% to the low 20's and increase the BB% to the 10 range, he could develop into a 120 wRC+ hitter - which would provide some value to this team moving forward. Time will tell.

[Brownie19]

One is considered a positive defensive player at a critical defensive position with a minor league track record of very good offensive performance (K/BB rate in particular) and was a top prospect in baseball as of the start of this season, while the other plays a s*** OF, has no base running value, and even in the minors was pulling off sub-.300 OBP's in AAA. I don't think it needs to be explained why Jansen would get more rope than McKinney.

 

What you're basically saying is "this fringe guy has no redeeming qualities but it's only 150 plate appearances so it's too early". I mean, you can use that logic with anyone. Teoscar, McKinney, Brito, Hanson. Just as you did by bringing up McGuire and Ramirez earlier. Those guys do not project to be anything beyond bench players (McGuire moreso). Just because you can rattle off a bunch of names it doesn't mean any of those guys are good. That's where the disagreement comes from in this thread. Yeah, Atkins acquired a s*** ton of prospects in the past two years. How many of them are any good? Majors or Minors? Any top 100's? Anyone you can reasonably project to be a starting player on a playoff contender down the road? That's a pretty important distinction.

 

If we are just stockpiling a bunch of back end 40 man roster depth, and throwing a party because we didn't give up much to get those players, that's not good.

 

Holy f***. Who do you think he was going to trade to get a Top 100 prospect? He's traded a pile of guys with little to no value for a bunch of fringy prospects/players. Somehow, he ended up with Grichuk and Thornton + a bunch of lottery tickets.

 

They inherited a team with very little trade value on it. That's the reality man.

[Laika]

I have long thought that Rowdy's ceiling was basically Yonder Alonso.

 

I think I am prepared to move that up a bit at this point. He clearly has way more raw power than Alonso.

 

If he can find a way to reel in that MLB K rate (MiLB rate was not that bad) then I could see a few 2 WAR seasons in his 20s.

 

He's trending up! 0.7 WAR in his first 65 MLB games is really nice for a prospect of his calibre. He has a freaking .352 career wOBA! All of that while suffering through contact problems that might be correctable.

[Ex Player]

We don't use HR's to judge abilities around here Rob. FWIW, Tellez has a wRC+ of 109 after his HR tonight. He's 9% better than the average hitter. That's not good enough when you factor in his awful base running and defense. That said, I love his swing path and strength. If he can drop his K% to the low 20's and increase the BB% to the 10 range, he could develop into a 120 wRC+ hitter - which would provide some value to this team moving forward. Time will tell

If you can hit around 30 homers a year you will always have a job in MLB, regardless of the other stats you mention.

Maybe not always with a contender, but always on some team somewhere.

 

Like I said earlier, Tellez is only 24, its his first full year in the majors, you have to give it a few years to assess how good he will become. He is certainly not an average hitter IMO

[Brownie19]

If you can hit around 30 homers a year you will always have a job in MLB, regardless of the other stats you mention.

Maybe not always with a contender, but always on some team somewhere.

 

Like I said earlier, Tellez is only 24, its his first full year in the majors, you have to give it a few years to assess how good he will become. He is certainly not an average hitter IMO

 

Go ask Yasmany Tomas how that's working out for him (https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=17171&position=OF)

 

or Adam Duvall or Eric Thames

[BTS]

My point was a general one - that we should all know better than to use such a small sample of PA to entirely write off these guys. I saw a lot of optimism around here six weeks ago and that's all but gone now, so we must be using the first 48 games to determine that the players we were previously hopeful for are actually awful.

 

Personally, I'm still just as hopeful as ever that Jansen becomes a star and that a couple of Drury, Hernandez, Gurriel, Tellez, and McKinney become average players. I also still think there could be a little more offensively in the tank for Grichuk than we've seen so far. Pannone, too, I think could make an excellent relief pitcher in either a long-man or setup role.

 

In hindsight, the writing was on the wall for this season when the Jays drafted Elvis Luciano in the Rule 5 draft with the intention of keeping him on the major league club all season. I know this season has been pretty unwatchable for some lengthy spells, I know that the team is not where we hoped it would be regarding the supporting cast, I know that we may be further away from contention than we had hoped, and I know that a season like this one tends to bring out the worst types of fans and the worst in some of the best posters. But let's not lose sight of the fact that this team is rebuilding, as we knew before the season began. There are some very interesting close-proximity prospects on the way such as Biggio, Bichette, Murphy, and Pearson, and we'll soon learn how good they are. This season is about determining what the Jays have in types like Drury, Gurriel, Hernandez, Tellez, McKinney, Davis, Urena, etc., so the FO knows what they need to add to this team when the young core is ready and has established itself.

 

Did this nothing approach they chose absolutely have to be taken? I honestly don't think it did, but, from a business standpoint, it makes a lot of sense to cut as many costs as possible if the team executives don't believe the team can compete with the likes of the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox. They clearly didn't believe that this team could. Fault them for that if you like, but it is what it is.

 

You might call me an optimist, but for what it's worth, I wouldn't label myself as one - more of a realist. I feel like we need to wait out this season to see where we're at. We might see a couple or more of the supporting cast emerge as viable to average major league players. Of course, maybe there's literally nobody worth a damn on this roster but Vlad, Smoak, Stroman, Giles, and maybe Grichuk, and at the end of the season we can look back and have a good laugh at this post.

 

I think the growing concern is about how bad the position players have looked collectively. We're May 23rd now and they've combined for 0 fWAR. That doesn't necessarily mean that there are issues identifying MLB-caliber talent, but I think given the fact that none of us really know anything about Ross Atkins other than that Mark Shapiro trusts him, it's pretty reasonable that some alarm bells are being set off. Maybe everyone is just about to take off and this is all moot, but I'll be pretty concerned if we get to the halfway point of the season and the bats are still hovering at replacement level collectively.