Around Baseball 2019

[BTS]

Some Khris Davis quotes:

 

“It’s not a good thing being a free agent right now,” Davis said. “It’s going to impact it a lot. That’s the way the business is. I’m already 31 so I don’t know if I’m too old, there’s a lot of things that run through my head for it.”

 

“I don’t want to break the bank. I want to be happy playing baseball. I’m not trying to max out the dollars,” Davis said. “$16 million, this is the top for me. I don’t want more than that. I’ll probably have to take a cut, and that’s fine, as long as I’m here.”

 

MLB's economic system isn't working when players coming off the best year of their career are going into their last year of arb talking about the paycut they expect to take in free agency.

[Grant77]

Some Khris Davis quotes:

 

 

 

 

 

MLB's economic system isn't working when players coming off the best year of their career are going into their last year of arb talking about the paycut they expect to take in free agency.

 

In the recent past he surely could have expected a contract approaching the Ryan Howard extension.

[Daniel Labude]

It's like players think age doesnt matter in valuing a contract

[Pendleton]

Surprised that a guy with a line of .262/.344/.428 over four seasons, with the ability to play multiple positions (albeit none of them well), had to settle for a non guaranteed deal (Dietrich)

[Spanky__99]

It's like players think age doesnt matter in valuing a contract

 

It's like owners don't understand they have players squeezed through their prime years, there has to be a compromise or were heading for a lengthy strike.

 

They have to come to a compromise, ownership/FO's already milking the f*** out of talent, players are their product, you don't treat them like s***.

[Spanky__99]

Surprised that a guy with a line of .262/.344/.428 over four seasons, with the ability to play multiple positions (albeit none of them well), had to settle for a non guaranteed deal (Dietrich)

 

It's really starting to get under my skin.

[John_Havok]

It's like owners don't understand they have players squeezed through their prime years, there has to be a compromise or were heading for a lengthy strike.

 

They have to come to a compromise, ownership/FO's already milking the f*** out of talent, players are their product, you don't treat them like s***.

 

Don't kid yourself, owners know damn well they are squeezing hundreds of millions in surplus value from players in their 1st 6 years when you look at the league as a whole.

 

And since they also all now know that long term big dollar contracts are almost never worth surplus value, they choose to use that knowledge to pay free agents less than they used to, while simultaneously enjoying massive surplus value from the guys in their first 6 years.

 

It's one of the unintended realities of analytics with the way the CBA was drawn up long ago. Now the owners are getting the cake and eating it too while the players enjoy table scraps comparitively to what the owners are raking in.

[BTS]

Don't kid yourself, owners know damn well they are squeezing hundreds of millions in surplus value from players in their 1st 6 years when you look at the league as a whole.

 

And since they also all now know that long term big dollar contracts are almost never worth surplus value, they choose to use that knowledge to pay free agents less than they used to, while simultaneously enjoying massive surplus value from the guys in their first 6 years.

 

It's one of the unintended realities of analytics with the way the CBA was drawn up long ago. Now the owners are getting the cake and eating it too while the players enjoy table scraps comparitively to what the owners are raking in.

 

Yeah. The cat isn’t going back in the bag in terms of bad long-term deals for old free agents, but the other side of the coin has to be more compensation for arb and pre-arb players.

[Spanky__99]

Don't kid yourself, owners know damn well they are squeezing hundreds of millions in surplus value from players in their 1st 6 years when you look at the league as a whole.

 

And since they also all now know that long term big dollar contracts are almost never worth surplus value, they choose to use that knowledge to pay free agents less than they used to, while simultaneously enjoying massive surplus value from the guys in their first 6 years.

 

It's one of the unintended realities of analytics with the way the CBA was drawn up long ago. Now the owners are getting the cake and eating it too while the players enjoy table scraps comparitively to what the owners are raking in.

 

That was my point, mate?

[Jimcanuck]

So basically FA is the new market inefficiency?

[bendera3]

If I'm Tony Clark I'm demanding arbitration after the 2nd year in the next CBA. They will have to give a little but this is getting ridiculous.

[Spanky__99]

If I'm Tony Clark I'm demanding arbitration after the 2nd year in the next CBA. They will have to give a little but this is getting ridiculous.

 

Speak of the devil... https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/mlbpa-executive-director-tony-clark-criticizes-rob-manfred/

 

 

s*** slinging has begun... this going to get ugly.

[TheHurl]

Speak of the devil... https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/mlbpa-executive-director-tony-clark-criticizes-rob-manfred/

 

 

s*** slinging has begun... this going to get ugly.

 

Should be an interesting ride. The PA has spent so much time working for those that need it the least (the vets) and have f***ed the minor leaguers completely. The market finally is correcting itself (it's been 19 years since Bill James published a study that concluded that a players best 5 year stretch would be age 25 to 29), and if the PA makes this about the FA period they are going to get wrecked. Start focusing on service time, service time manipulation and earlier arbitration. Oh yeah and dump Tony Clark

[Spanky__99]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/padres-reportedly-offering-250mm-or-more-to-manny-machado-bryce-harper.html

 

 

8:08PM: Rival general managers have been told that Machado’s offer from the Padres is at least eight years/$240MM with deferred money, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). Some other GMs, however, have been told that Machado has been offered $280MM.

 

7:42PM: The Padres are thought to have offered Manny Machado a contract in the neighborhood of eight years and $250MM, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link), while the club has reportedly issued an even larger offer to Bryce Harper. The exact total of the Machado offer is, as Heyman noted, an estimate, as that deal could include deferred money or some adjustment based on California’s higher taxation rates. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (also via Twitter) believes the Padres’ offer to Machado is beyond the $250MM mark, though Acee isn’t certain about the number of years involved in the contract.

 

While still short of the potential record-setting numbers thrown around for both Harper and Machado prior to the start of free agency, and even seemingly still shy of the $300MM threshold, it’s worth noting that only three contracts in baseball history (Giancarlo Stanton’s record $325MM deal with the Marlins, and Alex Rodriguez’s deals with the Rangers and Yankees) have topped the $250MM plateau. The Padres’ two offers are more akin to the type of long-term deals many expected the two free agent superstars to receive en masse this winter.

 

Either deal would represent easily the biggest contract in the history of the Padres franchise, far outpacing the $144MM signed by Eric Hosmer last offseason. While San Diego has never traditionally been a big spender, MLBTR’s Rob Huff recently made the case that the team is capable of handling the giant contract required to land Machado or Harper. Hosmer and Wil Myers (at admittedly hefty salaries) are the only contracts on the books beyond the 2020 season, plus the Padres have an inexpensive core of talent headed to the big leagues in the form of their top-rated minor league system. Between some creative contractual measures like deferrals, opt-outs, a dual option (a recent favorite of Scott Boras, Harper’s agent), there certainly seems to be room to fit a mega-contract under San Diego’s payroll going forward.

 

Padres executives have personally met with both Harper and Machado in recent weeks, and San Diego’s late entry as a suitor for both players seems to have been inspired by the fact that both are still on the market this deep into the offseason. In short, the Padres could be a classic “mystery team” scenario — the unexpected club that emerges as a late bidder and potentially walks away with a star. It should be noted that the Padres surprised many by signing Hosmer last year, and also when they landed James Shields in February 2015, during A.J. Preller’s news-making (and ultimately ill-fated) first offseason as San Diego’s general manager.

 

Reports from earlier today suggested that the Phillies were considered as the favorites to sign Harper, though connected teams like the White Sox, Giants, and Nationals hadn’t yet been ruled out. Machado’s market has been more limited, with only the Phillies and White Sox known to be clear bidders, and the Yankees perhaps on the outskirts looking for a shorter-term deal. The White Sox had reportedly made a bid of seven years and $175MM to Machado, though his agent strongly denied those numbers were accurate.

[glory]

Seriously, fixing this is pretty easy. Pay players more during years 0-6. That's it. Whether it's starting arb after year one/two, or increasing the minimum to be in the millions, etc. Teams would still be getting insane amounts of surplus value, while the players get paid more than $500k a year for the first three years. Then by the time free agency comes, the players may have already made $50m+, and may not be as adamant about the 10/300 type deals since they were paid reasonably during their primes.

 

Clark is the worst. Not sure how he keeps his job. Free agency isn't the problem. If teams are getting smarter about aging curves, then you can't force them to overpay for diminishing returns. But you can force them to pay more during years 0-6, and that better be Clark's focus, or he's a moron.

 

On another note, I'm glad the Jays are rebuilding for 2022. The lockout will happen after 2021, so once again, impeccable timing.

[BTS]

Seriously, fixing this is pretty easy. Pay players more during years 0-6. That's it. Whether it's starting arb after year one/two, or increasing the minimum to be in the millions, etc. Teams would still be getting insane amounts of surplus value, while the players get paid more than $500k a year for the first three years. Then by the time free agency comes, the players may have already made $50m+, and may not be as adamant about the 10/300 type deals since they were paid reasonably during their primes.

 

Clark is the worst. Not sure how he keeps his job. Free agency isn't the problem. If teams are getting smarter about aging curves, then you can't force them to overpay for diminishing returns. But you can force them to pay more during years 0-6, and that better be Clark's focus, or he's a moron.

 

On another note, I'm glad the Jays are rebuilding for 2022. The lockout will happen after 2021, so once again, impeccable timing.

 

Increasing the cost of a player's first 6 years would also make teams think twice about leaving league average vets on the FA market in order to gamble on unproven kids.

[Abomination]

Increasing the cost of a player's first 6 years would also make teams think twice about leaving league average vets on the FA market in order to gamble on unproven kids.

 

Increase minors pay to at least 50k, increase the mlb min to 1M. Start arbitration in the season following the first callup, while taking into account service time in the arbitration process (ie, emergency or September callups wouldn't have much effect). Allow arbitration to also decrease pay if merited. Limit MLB contracts to 4 years, with the team they last played for being allowed to offer 5. If you've played at least 7 years for a particular team, that team can add an extra year to their offer.

[Spanky__99]

Increase minors pay to at least 50k, increase the mlb min to 1M. Start arbitration in the season following the first callup, while taking into account service time in the arbitration process (ie, emergency or September callups wouldn't have much effect). Allow arbitration to also decrease pay if merited. Limit MLB contracts to 4 years, with the team they last played for being allowed to offer 5. If you've played at least 7 years for a particular team, that team can add an extra year to their offer.

 

If they want to save baseball from plummeting, I agree on each and every point. Pitch it, Abom.

[Pendleton]

The Brewers will apparently try Moose out at 2B in ST and switch Shaw back to 3B if the former proves he can handle the keystone.

[Spanky__99]

[Boxcar]

The Padres are so dumb. Ugh, please no Harper or Machado to Chicago or SD.

[baubau]

The Padres are so dumb. Ugh, please no Harper or Machado to Chicago or SD.

 

I hope they get one and that way they can make dumb moves, like TRADE FOR STROMAN.

 

 

 

 

 

yes i know i am dreaming but dammit let me!

[Bobthe4th]

Increase minors pay to at least 50k, increase the mlb min to 1M. Start arbitration in the season following the first callup, while taking into account service time in the arbitration process (ie, emergency or September callups wouldn't have much effect). Allow arbitration to also decrease pay if merited. Limit MLB contracts to 4 years, with the team they last played for being allowed to offer 5. If you've played at least 7 years for a particular team, that team can add an extra year to their offer.

 

I don’t know about that, a lot of veterans hate arbitration as if it goes to a hearing you basically have to listen to your team list all your flaws. If arbitration came in for young players just starting their careers I’d want the process to be a lot more objective.

[Bobthe4th]

Just as big a deal for the game as wages, is teams not calling up elite prospects in seasons where the team isn’t competitive. Ideally that’s exactly when elite prospects should be playing, as any rookie mistakes they make aren’t that important.

 

Service time manipulation has to be addressed! Perhaps a change to rule 5, reducing the years allowed to stay off the 40 man for top prospects? Not sure how a top prospect would be defined though.

[Boxcar]

Rob Manfred has more important issues to address, imo. For example, I think the term "service time" is problematic because it's a dog whistle for slavery. The term "playing with the team totally voluntarily time" is more appropriate and I think changes to the language of many terms have to happen before any of the CBA is addressed. It's 2019 ffs.

[Krylian]

Rob Manfred has more important issues to address, imo. For example, I think the term "service time" is problematic because it's a dog whistle for slavery. The term "playing with the team totally voluntarily time" is more appropriate and I think changes to the language of many terms have to happen before any of the CBA is addressed. It's 2019 ffs.

 

While Manfred's at it, are there any gender biases that need to be cleaned up with respect to wording? People can identify with anything nowadays. Need to make sure that's reflected.

[BTS]

Carlos Martinez shut down for two weeks. The rumours about the cards considering moving him to the pen make a bit more sense now.

[Spanky__99]

Carlos Martinez shut down for two weeks. The rumours about the cards considering moving him to the pen make a bit more sense now.

 

.

[glory]

Machado signs with the Padres.

 

[P2F]

Wow!