General 2019 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Laika]

We will not be able to just sign either pitcher. No one wants to come here.

 

Price will be at ~ 2 WAR for a while yet. We need that. We have lots of money. The prospects coming back would take the sting out of the salary.

 

JBJ could be extended, or traded for more prospects. And to trade Wag and Teoscar, or some combination, would clear out a lot of the log jam.

 

What is a terrible route is just having faith that we can sign someone like Ryu. #thoughtsandprayers

 

jesus christ

 

#thoughtsandprayers for your parents, man

[Stangstag]

Shatkins will never give Ryu $88/4 or $100/5. $100/4? You crazy?

 

Ryu has a considerably higher risk of falling apart than Tulo when he was acquired.

 

Yeah I just don’t think that Ryu is the FA we should splurge on. Way too many question marks with the health. Would rather overpay for the top-tier players like Rendon, Cole etc, but the free agent market for pitching has been pretty bonkers this year.

 

Not worth it just to spend for the sake of spending

[Deadpool]

We will not be able to just sign either pitcher. No one wants to come here.

 

Price will be at ~ 2 WAR for a while yet. We need that. We have lots of money. The prospects coming back would take the sting out of the salary.

 

JBJ could be extended, or traded for more prospects. And to trade Wag and Teoscar, or some combination, would clear out a lot of the log jam.

 

What is a terrible route is just having faith that we can sign someone like Ryu. #thoughtsandprayers

 

It's not unreasonable that Teo could out WAR Price next season, so no, I'm not even considering this.

 

If we were to take Price back, it would be for someone just outside Todd's Top 4000 prospects, AND we'd be getting back 2 of their top 10 (probably 1 and 2, since their system sucks balls).

[saskjayfan]

If getting Ryu entails an $80M+ investment then I would more than happy with Toronto turning their focus to Keuchel.

 

Keuchel has not been getting a lot of focus in Blue Jays land because the need is a top of the rotation starter and Dallas Keuchel ostensibly seems to be trending towards a mid-rotation option, or worse. He is almost 32, averaged about 88mph on the fastball last year, and he had a 4.72 FIP.

 

Based on the negatives MLBTR said in their Ryu article today that their initial prediction of a 3/$39M contract for Keuchel still seems reasonable. That's a stone's throw from tacking one extra year onto the Tanner Roark contract.

 

But I think there is some under the radar value with Keuchel. He has averaged 89.1mph in his career so his 88.4mph mean in 2019 was not far off his normal - he just was not able to reach back for the 90mph+ as often. The late start and abnormal spring might have had something to do with it.

 

Keuchel's K and BB numbers in 2019 were generally in line with his career marks. He still had an ERA under 4 and on his bWAR was a healthy 2.1 in his 112.2 IP. His DRA on BP was a decent 4.25, good for 1.9 WARP in his abbreviated season. So if he had have pitched a full season with his rate stats he would have approached or surpassed 3 wins by any measure other than fWAR.

 

He's a year younger than Ryu. He offers the promise and potential of stability that Ryu lacks. Yeah, there is less upside - Ryu is coming off a 5 WAR season and that upside is palpable for him and very likely not part of Keuchel's package anymore.

 

Remember that Toronto's main goal is rotation stabilization, it's not exactly to add a playoff Ace. Even if Keuchel is a #3/4 for the rest of his career, if he could reliably be that for the duration of his contract then he'd be a great signing, and in 2019 he could be the veteran leader the pitching staff needs. Toronto traded for Mark Beuhrle before his age 34 season and I think we can all agree Buehrle's 3 years with the organization were excellent.

 

If we think about a 3 or 4 year contract for Keuchel it's not hard to envision him being the grizzled veteran lefty that stabilizes the 2021 or 2022 rotation as this young core finally blossoms into a playoff team. The new Bark Meuhrle.

 

When are we going to compete and who's going to be in the rotation? I like Ryu a tick more and would go 4 and 80. Keuchel does get a crap ton of ground balls. It's hard to judge guys when they miss spring training and get a late start. I think his walk rate improves a bit over last year. I think Keuchel can be a solid number 3 type contributor. It would be nice to get one or the other.

[saskjayfan]

We will not be able to just sign either pitcher. No one wants to come here.

 

Price will be at ~ 2 WAR for a while yet. We need that. We have lots of money. The prospects coming back would take the sting out of the salary.

 

JBJ could be extended, or traded for more prospects. And to trade Wag and Teoscar, or some combination, would clear out a lot of the log jam.

 

What is a terrible route is just having faith that we can sign someone like Ryu. #thoughtsandprayers

 

You're not going to pay 32 mil for 2 wins and give something back. If the Red Sox want to eat salary and we can get him for 3 and 60 for a C prospect fine. Price pitched with a cyst that required minor surgery to repair. He actually pitched reasonably well given the fact that he was pitching in some pain. I think Price has some 4+ win season's in him. I don't think he was every really comfortable in Boston. I can't see us giving anything up though, and Boston has to eat the salary.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

jesus christ

 

#thoughtsandprayers for your parents, man

 

Solid baseball point.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

You're not going to pay 32 mil for 2 wins and give something back. If the Red Sox want to eat salary and we can get him for 3 and 60 for a C prospect fine. Price pitched with a cyst that required minor surgery to repair. He actually pitched reasonably well given the fact that he was pitching in some pain. I think Price has some 4+ win season's in him. I don't think he was every really comfortable in Boston. I can't see us giving anything up though, and Boston has to eat the salary.

 

I don't think you read all of my posted thoughts on this. Price, JBJ and 1-2 Boston prospects for Hernandez, Zoiks and I dunno, Alford. I would never suggest we take Price and all of his salary. That's silly.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

It's not unreasonable that Teo could out WAR Price next season, so no, I'm not even considering this.

 

If we were to take Price back, it would be for someone just outside Todd's Top 4000 prospects, AND we'd be getting back 2 of their top 10 (probably 1 and 2, since their system sucks balls).

 

Interesting. You are higher on Teoscar than most. And probably the FO. I get the feeling they don't feel he's the answer in CF.

 

And I am a Teoscar fan. That was just a spitball return on the trade idea. My salient thought is that the FO wants Price and JBJ. I dunno what we need to lose to get that done. And no, I would be super pissed if we ate all of the salary for no additions.

[Deadpool]

Interesting. You are higher on Teoscar than most. And probably the FO. I get the feeling they don't feel he's the answer in CF.

 

And I am a Teoscar fan. That was just a spitball return on the trade idea. My salient thought is that the FO wants Price and JBJ. I dunno what we need to lose to get that done. And no, I would be super pissed if we ate all of the salary for no additions.

 

Price was worth 2.3 WAR last season, and Teo 1.2, and that was after his abysmal first half. If he plays as well all season in 2020 as he played after he was recalled in 2019, he should be in the ~2-3 WAR area. Price hasn't hit 3 WAR since 2016.

[Rusty_Savage]

I don't get wanting to trade for a guy on the downside of his career who makes 32 million a year when you can sign a better pitcher for less money

[saskjayfan]

Price was worth 2.3 WAR last season, and Teo 1.2, and that was after his abysmal first half. If he plays as well all season in 2020 as he played after he was recalled in 2019, he should be in the ~2-3 WAR area. Price hasn't hit 3 WAR since 2016.

 

I see the upside in Teo. It wouldn't shock me if Teo did produce more wins than Price. I certainly wouldn't include Teo in a Price deal, but Price also put up 2.3 wins in only 107 innings pitching in less than ideal circumstances. I think price could bounce back and put up 4 wins.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

I don't get wanting to trade for a guy on the downside of his career who makes 32 million a year when you can sign a better pitcher for less money

 

Who would that be? What ~ 2 WAR pitchers out there do you think we have a legit shot at?

[Deadpool]

I don't get wanting to trade for a guy on the downside of his career who makes 32 million a year when you can sign a better pitcher for less money

 

We don't want Price, we want the prospects that come with Price and would be taking him back to get them.

[saskjayfan]

We don't want Price, we want the prospects that come with Price and would be taking him back to get them.

 

What prospects do you really want to target from the Redsox?

[TheHurl]

Red Sox are still the projected 3rd best team in the AL (and it's close between them and the Astros and Yankees) and have new management. Never has the ownership group actually said that they will be below the luxury tax. It's what we thought when they brought in Chaim, but I don't see them handing over assets with zero return.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Red Sox are still the projected 3rd best team in the AL (and it's close between them and the Astros and Yankees) and have new management. Never has the ownership group actually said that they will be below the luxury tax. It's what we thought when they brought in Chaim, but I don't see them handing over assets with zero return.

 

I don't think any GM would hand over assets for free. The days of GM's like Dave Stewart are over.

[Deadpool]

What prospects do you really want to target from the Redsox?

 

None specifically, it's more of a thought experiment of what it would take to swallow the Price deal.

[Deadpool]

I don't think any GM would hand over assets for free. The days of GM's like Dave Stewart are over.

 

It's not free though, Price's salary is a debit and his productivity is a credit, and right now he's deeply in the red. The theory is that they're selling a bad asset, not that they're giving up a positive one for nothing.

[TheHurl]

It's not free though, Price's salary is a debit and his productivity is a credit, and right now he's deeply in the red. The theory is that they're selling a bad asset, not that they're giving up a positive one for nothing.

 

but from a purely baseball side it's positive for the team. Considering the replacements are like Shawaryn and Weber. Price gets them down closer to getting below the tax but it's still not assured. He also was a top 20 pitcher for the first half last year. It takes someone taking on enough of the payroll that it gets them off the luxury tax run, and not hurting their team chances.

[Key22]

If getting Ryu entails an $80M+ investment then I would more than happy with Toronto turning their focus to Keuchel.

 

Keuchel has not been getting a lot of focus in Blue Jays land because the need is a top of the rotation starter and Dallas Keuchel ostensibly seems to be trending towards a mid-rotation option, or worse. He is almost 32, averaged about 88mph on the fastball last year, and he had a 4.72 FIP.

 

Based on the negatives MLBTR said in their Ryu article today that their initial prediction of a 3/$39M contract for Keuchel still seems reasonable. That's a stone's throw from tacking one extra year onto the Tanner Roark contract.

 

But I think there is some under the radar value with Keuchel. He has averaged 89.1mph in his career so his 88.4mph mean in 2019 was not far off his normal - he just was not able to reach back for the 90mph+ as often. The late start and abnormal spring might have had something to do with it.

 

Keuchel's K and BB numbers in 2019 were generally in line with his career marks. He still had an ERA under 4 and on his bWAR was a healthy 2.1 in his 112.2 IP. His DRA on BP was a decent 4.25, good for 1.9 WARP in his abbreviated season. So if he had have pitched a full season with his rate stats he would have approached or surpassed 3 wins by any measure other than fWAR.

 

He's a year younger than Ryu. He offers the promise and potential of stability that Ryu lacks. Yeah, there is less upside - Ryu is coming off a 5 WAR season and that upside is palpable for him and very likely not part of Keuchel's package anymore.

 

Remember that Toronto's main goal is rotation stabilization, it's not exactly to add a playoff Ace. Even if Keuchel is a #3/4 for the rest of his career, if he could reliably be that for the duration of his contract then he'd be a great signing, and in 2019 he could be the veteran leader the pitching staff needs. Toronto traded for Mark Beuhrle before his age 34 season and I think we can all agree Buehrle's 3 years with the organization were excellent.

 

If we think about a 3 or 4 year contract for Keuchel it's not hard to envision him being the grizzled veteran lefty that stabilizes the 2021 or 2022 rotation as this young core finally blossoms into a playoff team. The new Bark Meuhrle.

 

I have no problem with Keuchel - if the team figures that Nate Pearson is going to be an ace or number 2 starter and Manoah is going to be a top of the rotation starter along with him then Keuchel can slot in as the number 3 starter and can serve as a mentor to the young guys - perhaps like Mark Buehrle.

 

I mean if he is healthy - he is a solid #3 and maybe you can offer $45m/3 - and you add performance bonuses for IP or something to get it to a possible $54m/3. He probably has to get more dollars and years than Roark given his stature in the game. Then maybe try Ryu at $72m/4 if you get outbid you get outbid - but the team would look a whole helluva lot better as

 

1. Ryu

2. Keuchel

3. Shoemaker

4. Roark

5. Pearson

 

Long relievers and spot starters: Thornton, Waguespack, Borucki, SRF, Kay, Zeuch, Anderson

 

Indeed, all of these guys can go 4 innings+ and in today's game that sort of 2 starters per start model might not be that bad. Roark goes 5 Borrucki goes 4. Some will be in the minors of course but still - a lot of decent #4 and #5 depth here. If the Jays hit - and play remotely competent defense then at least there is cause for optimism. If Pearson becomes a bonafide Gerrit Cole kind of Ace and Vlad becomes the Frank Thomas .330 50 home run bat he is supposed to be then things look better really fast.

[saskjayfan]

I have no problem with Keuchel - if the team figures that Nate Pearson is going to be an ace or number 2 starter and Manoah is going to be a top of the rotation starter along with him then Keuchel can slot in as the number 3 starter and can serve as a mentor to the young guys - perhaps like Mark Buehrle.

 

I mean if he is healthy - he is a solid #3 and maybe you can offer $45m/3 - and you add performance bonuses for IP or something to get it to a possible $54m/3. He probably has to get more dollars and years than Roark given his stature in the game. Then maybe try Ryu at $72m/4 if you get outbid you get outbid - but the team would look a whole helluva lot better as

 

1. Ryu

2. Keuchel

3. Shoemaker

4. Roark

5. Pearson

 

Long relievers and spot starters: Thornton, Waguespack, Borucki, SRF, Kay, Zeuch, Anderson

 

Indeed, all of these guys can go 4 innings+ and in today's game that sort of 2 starters per start model might not be that bad. Roark goes 5 Borrucki goes 4. Some will be in the minors of course but still - a lot of decent #4 and #5 depth here. If the Jays hit - and play remotely competent defense then at least there is cause for optimism. If Pearson becomes a bonafide Gerrit Cole kind of Ace and Vlad becomes the Frank Thomas .330 50 home run bat he is supposed to be then things look better really fast.

 

Just go out and pay Ryu the same contract bumgarner got. 5 and 85.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Just go out and pay Ryu the same contract bumgarner got. 5 and 85.

 

I think it would take more. I am not sure 5/100 in TO gets it done.

 

But 40,40,10,10 and 10 might.

[Krylian]

Just go out and pay Ryu the same contract bumgarner got. 5 and 85.

 

You're assuming that gets it done

[Spanky99]

I think it would take more. I am not sure 5/100 in TO gets it done.

 

But 40,40,10,10 and 10 might.

 

Jesus Christ... *face palm*

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Jesus Christ... *face palm*

 

Solid baseball thought #mate

[Spanky99]

Solid baseball thought #mate

 

That thought was in concern of yours, pretty simple. #mate

[SaskJaysFan_2]

That thought was in concern of yours, pretty simple. #mate

 

But me on your ignore list, mate, instead of posting shizzle that a 4-year old would #mate

[Spanky99]

But me on your ignore list, mate, instead of posting shizzle that a 4-year old would #mate

 

[SaskJaysFan_2]

 

Huh. Another solid baseball post, mate. Seriously, put me on ignore.

[Todd]

What in the hell are the blue jays waiting for.