General 2019 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Jimcanuck]

Based on run differential Jays win 71 games this year. Add 10 WAR for the three newcomers replacing three replacement level shitbags. A full season of the young guys adds 5 WAR. You're up to 86 wins right there which in a normal year is in the thick of contention.

 

As I said, there is a chance, but Boxy said after signing those guys the playoffs would be a certainty.

 

Cole and Roark would get us extremely close to a playoff team. Sign Moustakas for third and that's playoffs.

[Spanky99]

As I said, there is a chance, but Boxy said after signing those guys the playoffs would be a certainty.

 

And you said it was ridiculous, twice.

[Krylian]

What does this even mean?

 

Seems pretty clear.

 

What would disappoint you more...the Jays not even making a serious attempt at Cole....OR....them not actually signing him?

 

Clearly it would be the not trying. The pursuit of Cole is entirely in the Jays control. Whether he signs is in Cole's hands. Can't get mad at the Jays if they go balls deep with an offer and Cole decides he wants to go elsewhere.

[Boxcar]

As I said, there is a chance, but Boxy said after signing those guys the playoffs would be a certainty.

 

Nothing in baseball is a certainty, idiot. You can be a playoff calibre team and miss the playoffs, see Boston.

[Jimcanuck]

Nothing in baseball is a certainty, idiot. You can be a playoff calibre team and miss the playoffs, see Boston.

 

Communicate better, then.

[Laika]

No you aren't. You said with certainty that Cole, Roark, and Moose mean the playoffs in 2020. Hey it could happen, but the probability is far lower than the certainty you claim.

 

Jim, the master of strawmen.

[Boxcar]

Communicate better, then.

 

I think that you are literally the only person who missed the point of my post. Have you considered that perhaps the problem here is with you?

[Dick_Pole]

As I said, there is a chance, but Boxy said after signing those guys the playoffs would be a certainty.

 

I look forward to him providing details for his thesis as he said he would.

[DigitalRock]

After reading about Vlad literally having never stepped foot in a gym before, I'm down to zero hope that he ever improves his fitness. He's a preternaturally gifted hitter, but the level of laziness required for a professional athlete to have literally never tried working out is off the charts. That's not a switch you just flip.

 

Yeah that was disappointing when he stated that. You would think it would have crossed his mind or someone close to him would have said something.

[Jimcanuck]

I look forward to him providing details for his thesis as he said he would.

 

What is this about?

 

If you are referring to my master's thesis, it is dynamic finite element analysis of deep buried drainage and geosynthetics. Deep buried would apply to the base of landfills, for example. Dynamic finite element analysis means the element geometry changes with each load increment for more accurate modelling results. This is different than the standard SEM with static geometry.

 

The research has value because if drainage elements at the base of landfills were to fail, groundwater over a very large area would be contaminated / undrinkable.

 

This was in the early 1990's.

[Boxcar]

What is this about?

 

If you are referring to my master's thesis, it is dynamic finite element analysis of deep buried drainage and geosynthetics. Deep buried would apply to the base of landfills, for example. Dynamic finite element analysis means the element geometry changes with each load increment for more accurate modelling results. This is different than the standard SEM with static geometry.

 

The research has value because if drainage elements at the base of landfills were to fail, groundwater over a very large area would be contaminated / undrinkable.

 

This was in the early 1990's.

 

No one cares, Jim

[Abomination]

What is this about?

 

If you are referring to my master's thesis, it is dynamic finite element analysis of deep buried drainage and geosynthetics. Deep buried would apply to the base of landfills, for example. Dynamic finite element analysis means the element geometry changes with each load increment for more accurate modelling results. This is different than the standard SEM with static geometry.

 

The research has value because if drainage elements at the base of landfills were to fail, groundwater over a very large area would be contaminated / undrinkable.

 

This was in the early 1990's.

 

Do you mean changing the size of the grid elements along the edge of the area of interest for each increment, or actually changing their fundamental shape? I'm trying to figure out how the second scenario would work, and it's got me curious now.

[Jimcanuck]

Do you mean changing the size of the grid elements along the edge of the area of interest for each increment, or actually changing their fundamental shape? I'm trying to figure out how the second scenario would work, and it's got me curious now.

 

Changing the shape; the location of each node of the element changes based on the calculated deflection from each load increment. The analysis has to be re-run multiple times, each time with the adjusted geometry and the next load increment. Load increment had to be kept small or the computer algorithm became unstable. Quite tedious.

 

This was in the early 1990's using AFENA, pioneering software from Australia used for geotechnical research. I had to so some re-coding. It was in Fortran.

 

Probably only relevant for geotechnical modelling, where deflections can be significant.

 

Don't ask too many questions, I haven't done that type of work in years.

[Abomination]

Changing the shape; the location of each node of the element changes based on the calculated deflection from each load increment. The analysis has to be re-run multiple times, each time with the adjusted geometry and the next load increment. Load increment had to be kept small or the computer algorithm became unstable. Quite tedious.

 

This was in the early 1990's using AFENA, pioneering software from Australia used for geotechnical research. I had to so some re-coding. It was in Fortran.

 

Probably only relevant for geotechnical modelling, where deflections can be significant.

 

Don't ask too many questions, I haven't done that type of work in years.

 

Ah, I think I understand. I had it pictured slightly differently, and couldn't figure out how that would translate between runs.

[Spanky99]

Brunt interviews Ross Atkins... *Video*

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/ross-atkins-sits-stephen-brunt-looks-back-blue-jays-season/

[bones10]

Biggio is almost at 3 fWAR in less than 100 games, good season.

[Grant77]

Biggio is almost at 3 fWAR in less than 100 games, good season.

 

Hopefully we can get some real outfielders and let Biggio settle in as a full time 2B. I think he can be even better on both sides of the ball.

[Olerud363]

Hopefully we can get some real outfielders and let Biggio settle in as a full time 2B. I think he can be even better on both sides of the ball.

 

What do you propose doing with Grichuk and Gurriel?? It seems there is only 1 outfield spot, and it would be replacing Hernandez/Fisher.

 

However Hernandez/Fisher platoon is like the definition of what a moneyball team might try... they are at a low point...

 

Why not just go with Grichuk, Gurriel, Fisher/Hernandez ?? What player do you propose replacing Fisher/Hernandez with and how much of a WAR increase will they be over Fisher/Hernandez??

[glory]

I suspect Shatkins will go with Gurriel/Hernandez/Grichuk in the OF with Fisher at DH and Alford as the 4th OF next season. I think the team clearly needs another OF but don't think we will see one next season. They'll give the current group one more chance next year.

[Jimcanuck]

I suspect Shatkins will go with Gurriel/Hernandez/Grichuk in the OF with Fisher at DH and Alford as the 4th OF next season. I think the team clearly needs another OF but don't think we will see one next season. They'll give the current group one more chance next year.

 

I agree with this. Can't see Fisher pushed down the depth chart by a new OF acquisition, after half a season.

[Orgfiller]

Thornton officially finishes his season with 154 innings and 2 WAR, excellent find by the FO in a team that's lacking pitching depth. Thornton is inconsistent but shows flashes of being a valuable ~4th starter, and as a rookie we'll take that performance going forward and hope that he can iron out the kinks with regards to his command.

[Spanky99]

Thornton officially finishes his season with 154 innings and 2 WAR, excellent find by the FO in a team that's lacking pitching depth. Thornton is inconsistent but shows flashes of being a valuable ~4th starter, and as a rookie we'll take that performance going forward and hope that he can iron out the kinks with regards to his command.

 

I've been arguing with stiffs all year, he could be a decent SP.

[Thaddeus Malice]

I suspect Shatkins will go with Gurriel/Hernandez/Grichuk in the OF with Fisher at DH and Alford as the 4th OF next season. I think the team clearly needs another OF but don't think we will see one next season. They'll give the current group one more chance next year.

 

Oh God, I do not want to watch Derek Fisher be the DH next year. After three years of consistently failing miserably when given a shot at hitting in the big leagues, I think it's ok to start assuming he's a AAAA guy who's going to wind up in Japan. I'm sure he'll have a fine career there, but there's no need for him here.

 

If the FO isn't spending this winter, I'd rather they at least search for another bargain project they can flip for prospects then give Fisher his fourth chance.

[Spanky99]

Oh God, I do not want to watch Derek Fisher be the DH next year. After three years of consistently failing miserably when given a shot at hitting in the big leagues, I think it's ok to start assuming he's a AAAA guy who's going to wind up in Japan. I'm sure he'll have a fine career there, but there's no need for him here.

 

If the FO isn't spending this winter, I'd rather they at least search for another bargain project they can flip for prospects then give Fisher his fourth chance.

 

He's had 418 AB's spread out over them years, don't be obtuse. He'll be their next year, as an OF.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Thornton officially finishes his season with 154 innings and 2 WAR, excellent find by the FO in a team that's lacking pitching depth. Thornton is inconsistent but shows flashes of being a valuable ~4th starter, and as a rookie we'll take that performance going forward and hope that he can iron out the kinks with regards to his command.

 

2 WAR is incredible. I think maybe he has a really good shot at a spot last year.

[BTS]

Thornton officially finishes his season with 154 innings and 2 WAR, excellent find by the FO in a team that's lacking pitching depth. Thornton is inconsistent but shows flashes of being a valuable ~4th starter, and as a rookie we'll take that performance going forward and hope that he can iron out the kinks with regards to his command.

 

Yup. Still controllable for 5 more years, and is a clear rotation cog at this point, even if only an SP5 on a good team. Nice piece.

[Barkerfan23]

Fisher has options. he should be starting the season in AAA, no questions asked.

 

This team needs a proper CF, Assuming Grichuk, Hernandez & Grichuk are on this team, there isn't room for Fisher or Mckinney.

[Thaddeus Malice]

He's had 418 AB's spread out over them years, don't be obtuse. He'll be their next year, as an OF.

 

And they've been really bad AB's. He'd have more AB's during that span if at any point during those years he'd shown he could at least kind of hit MLB pitching. He didn't and he continues to very consistently not. 150 games and 0.0 WAR to show for it.

 

He has struck out 152 times during those 418 PA's. I'd love for him to have shown something, but thus far he hasn't shown anything at all.

[Spanky99]

And they've been really bad AB's. He'd have more AB's during that span if at any point during those years he'd shown he could at least kind of hit MLB pitching. He didn't and he continues to very consistently not. 150 games and 0.0 WAR to show for it.

 

He has struck out 152 times during those 418 PA's. I'd love for him to have shown something, but thus far he hasn't shown anything at all.

 

Or conduit playing time, I'm fair, see what the Birds do.

[saskjayfan]

What do you propose doing with Grichuk and Gurriel?? It seems there is only 1 outfield spot, and it would be replacing Hernandez/Fisher.

 

However Hernandez/Fisher platoon is like the definition of what a moneyball team might try... they are at a low point...

 

Why not just go with Grichuk, Gurriel, Fisher/Hernandez ?? What player do you propose replacing Fisher/Hernandez with and how much of a WAR increase will they be over Fisher/Hernandez??

 

Mookie betts in 2021 and the increase in WAR will be a lot! Dare to dream.