General 2019 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Olerud363]

You’re both right.

 

His main flaws are defence and running. These are his glaring talent holes. Hard to fix.

 

His main fixable flaw is the hit trajectory. It should be easy enough to fix. So easy that you can reasonably assume it will get better.

 

Olerud is right that the groundball rate needs to be addressed. It could be a lot of wasted effort trying to get him to be a decent defender, but some attention to lifting the ball more would have big dividends. Orgfiller is probably right that Vlad already knows he should be hitting more dingers, it’s just not something he’s overly worried about right now.

 

Hmmmm

 

What a frustrating night... it was nice to see him hit the fifth deck homer barely foul... but 7 balls in play, 5 on the ground, a rally killing double play in the 13th,

 

I think what has got me going again is Eloy Jimininez... for a while Vlad and Eloy were the "struggling" rookies... I mean struggling just a bit... now Eloy has gone crazy in September.

 

His Rookie season is similar to my hero, John Olerud's. Olerud ended up with more fwar than Vlad SR. I have to check every time to make sure that is true.

 

Here is a question. With effort and guidance could Vlad Guerrero jr become as good of a defensive player and baserunner as John Olerud?? Either by becoming an average 3rd basemen, or a good 1st basemen??

 

Olerud's secret to 55 fWAR, is consistently good hitting, a couple of crazy years with batting titles, and not being too negative on basefunning and defense. Apparently he was occasionally a bit positive.

 

Could Guerrero JR. become as good a hitter as Olerud?? If he wants to keep up the ground ball thing, he'll have to spray it around a bit more and negate the shift... once in a while little Vladdy sends one down the first base line so maybe he can do it.

 

If he does both he'll beat his Dad in fWAR.

[Spanky99]

After reading about Vlad literally having never stepped foot in a gym before, I'm down to zero hope that he ever improves his fitness. He's a preternaturally gifted hitter, but the level of laziness required for a professional athlete to have literally never tried working out is off the charts. That's not a switch you just flip.

 

lol... you actually believed that?

[Spanky99]

ahhh so it was just Madani talking out of his ass. That's a relief to hear.

 

I googled it after Arash posted that, found plenty of him working out with weights.

[Spanky99]

[Terminator]

Vlad Jr already has 2 kids. I had friends from high school who had 2 kids by age 20 and their lives rarely worked out. I'm worried.

[Spanky99]

[Spanky99]

Vlad Jr already has 2 kids. I had friends from high school who had 2 kids by age 20 and their lives rarely worked out. I'm worried.

 

lol... why? He's following in dad's footsteps 8 kids with several women.

[Laika]

So happy for future Baltimore Oriole Anthony Alford, walking off his 2020 teammates last night

[Boxcar]

So happy for future Baltimore Oriole Anthony Alford, walking off his 2020 teammates last night

 

You know he's legit, now, right? s***** players combine to hit 0 home runs, ever.

[Bobthe4th]

Vlad Jr already has 2 kids. I had friends from high school who had 2 kids by age 20 and their lives rarely worked out. I'm worried.

 

TBF it’s unlikely that your friends were earning half a million dollars at that age!

[Spanky99]

So happy for future Baltimore Oriole Anthony Alford, walking off his 2020 teammates last night

 

Woohoo... more Intl' money.

[saskjayfan]

You know he's legit, now, right? s***** players combine to hit 0 home runs, ever.

 

who needs a sample size when your ego is the size of Texas. Alford is clearly bad at baseball. Alford makes some swing changes and has some pretty decent success at AAA in 250+ plate appearances and you dismiss this as being an insignificant sample size and then you reference 52 plate appearances spread out over 3 years in spot duty. What a hypocrite.

[BTS]

In his last 250 PA at AAA Alford had a 124 wRC+ on a 0.400 BABIP. He's 25 years old. I'm not impressed.

[Ex Player]

In his last 250 PA at AAA Alford had a 124 wRC+ on a 0.400 BABIP. He's 25 years old. I'm not impressed

Its not only his numbers, but its his age thats the biggest problem.

Highly unlikely he starts improving anytime soon

[Laika]

I have not looked at the data but Anthony Alford swings through an alarming number of pitches, particularly very hittable pitches in the zone. A swiss cheese swing from a guy with honestly, just average raw power.

[Deadpool]

In his last 250 PA at AAA Alford had a 124 wRC+ on a 0.400 BABIP. He's 25 years old. I'm not impressed.

 

As shown last night, he has the speed to beat out a lot of grounders that would be outs for most players, which could lead to a higher than average BABIP (probably not .400, but still...) He's got great speed, and can play D, and might bring an average/slightly below average bat with him, and he makes the league min. I don't see a downside to keeping him as the 26th man next year (given our current options).

[Deadpool]

I have not looked at the data but Anthony Alford swings through an alarming number of pitches, particularly very hittable pitches in the zone. A swiss cheese swing from a guy with honestly, just average raw power.

 

Did you notice the subtle, but appreciable difference in his stance/setup last night vs/ the previous ABs? He seemed a lot less rigid, and wasn't turning his back as much to the pitcher.

[Laika]

Did you notice the subtle, but appreciable difference in his stance/setup last night vs/ the previous ABs? He seemed a lot less rigid, and wasn't turning his back as much to the pitcher.

 

No I didn't notice. You'll have to do a gif side-by-side now that you brought it up (gifs or it didn't happen)

 

I wouldn't put any stock in it though. Inconsistent players will have inconsistent mechanics.

[BTS]

As shown last night, he has the speed to beat out a lot of grounders that would be outs for most players, which could lead to a higher than average BABIP (probably not .400, but still...) He's got great speed, and can play D, and might bring an average/slightly below average bat with him, and he makes the league min. I don't see a downside to keeping him as the 26th man next year (given our current options).

 

I don't think there's much chance he's an average bat. If he can put up a wRC+ around 85 and if his defense in CF is elite, than he'll Pillar his way to some 2-win seasons before his legs slow down. He's currently projected for a wRC+ in the 60s, and I don't think you can ever really expect even a highly rated minor league outfielder to be an elite defender, so I'm expecting him to be more of a fast Ryan Goins.

[Dick_Pole]

If the Jays are not signing two starting pitchers that are a significant upgrade over what they currently have on the roster this off-season then there is no reason to not give Alford another life next year, good player or not.

 

I obviously hope the alternative takes place and that this team does not boot another year of cheap control of its core and actually does something to compete. Unlike the pessimists who seems to get off being pessimists. Especially the "players don't sign in Toronto" crowd.

[Krylian]

Cashman said the Yankees weren't very high on Stroman and didn't want to include Frazier in a deal. Said he didn't see Stroman as a difference maker and that he'd likely be in their pen in the post season.

[Olerud363]

I don't think there's much chance he's an average bat. If he can put up a wRC+ around 85 and if his defense in CF is elite, than he'll Pillar his way to some 2-win seasons before his legs slow down. He's currently projected for a wRC+ in the 60s, and I don't think you can ever really expect even a highly rated minor league outfielder to be an elite defender, so I'm expecting him to be more of a fast Ryan Goins.

 

Kevin Pillar was a .325 .367 .470ish hitter in the minors. Alford .260 .360 .390ish with at least twice the k rate.

 

You could argue that Pillar under-performed his minor league numbers though.

 

So in a weird way Alford's route to success would be to become a Pillar... hold a .300 on base and close to .400 slugging with great defense and baserunning, though his average would be much lower, more walks and ks.

 

That's his route to success... I assume the probability of that route is low.

[glory]

It's a pick your poison scenario. Either you go with the two players who can actually play CF but won't hit much (Alford/Davis) or go with the players who haven't proven they can hit yet but hitting is practically all the value they will provide (Fisher, Teoscar, McKinney). None of them sound all that appealing.

 

Fisher and Alford are out of options. Both can make the 2020 team with the extra roster spot. McKinney and Davis have options left. I'm interested to see how married they are to Hernandez. He's hit the best out of all of them but he's been pretty lukewarm as a hitter overall and he's striking out a ton.

[Orgfiller]

What's with everyone believing that all Fisher could bring to the table is hitting? Have you seen him run? The guy is incredibly fast and isn't nearly as poor of an outfielder as you guys are making him out to be. That's not me saying I think he'll put it together, but he has just as many tools as Alford has for instance.

[Laika]

What's with everyone believing that all Fisher could bring to the table is hitting? Have you seen him run? The guy is incredibly fast and isn't nearly as poor of an outfielder as you guys are making him out to be. That's not me saying I think he'll put it together, but he has just as many tools as Alford has for instance.

 

They are dumb and creating a substrate of a false narrative in which Anthony Alford is more attractive to the organization.

[BTS]

What's with everyone believing that all Fisher could bring to the table is hitting? Have you seen him run? The guy is incredibly fast and isn't nearly as poor of an outfielder as you guys are making him out to be. That's not me saying I think he'll put it together, but he has just as many tools as Alford has for instance.

 

I've been wondering this too. Fisher has graded out as a plus outfielder and average baserunner in almost a full season of MLB time. I haven't seen a single game of his, but I'm pretty sure people are overreacting to him losing a ball in the sun and having it hit him in the face.

[Krylian]

They are dumb and creating a substrate of a false narrative in which Anthony Alford is more attractive to the organization.

 

Black is beautiful

[Bobthe4th]

Fisher has been awful for us, but it’s a short sample size, and it’s far too early to write him off. Atkins likes him, maybe he turns it around next year. If not he can be non-tendered at the end of 2020.

 

McKinney has shown nothing in the majors, but has options. He should start 2020 at AAA. Ditto Davis.

 

Hernandez is in a similar contract situation to Fisher, he gets next season to improve.

 

Grichuk has had an awful season, but isn’t going anywhere with his contract, and could easily bounce back.

 

Gurriel needs to continue to play well next year to secure his long term place in the outfield but he’s been one of the few good stories this year (despite beginning the season as such a liability that he was demoted).

 

Alford has never had a chance in the majors, despite being a former top prospect. Would have been the perfect time to give him a month of starts to see if he could bat ok enough to get his defensive talents in the team. If he failed, there’s no downside and he’s dfa in the offseason.

 

Conclusion - our outfield f***ing sucks.

[Jimcanuck]

Fisher has been awful for us, but it’s a short sample size, and it’s far too early to write him off. Atkins likes him, maybe he turns it around next year. If not he can be non-tendered at the end of 2020.

 

McKinney has shown nothing in the majors, but has options. He should start 2020 at AAA. Ditto Davis.

 

Hernandez is in a similar contract situation to Fisher, he gets next season to improve.

 

Grichuk has had an awful season, but isn’t going anywhere with his contract, and could easily bounce back.

 

Gurriel needs to continue to play well next year to secure his long term place in the outfield but he’s been one of the few good stories this year (despite beginning the season as such a liability that he was demoted).

 

Alford has never had a chance in the majors, despite being a former top prospect. Would have been the perfect time to give him a month of starts to see if he could bat ok enough to get his defensive talents in the team. If he failed, there’s no downside and he’s dfa in the offseason.

 

Conclusion - our outfield f***ing sucks.

 

Also the easiest position to improve.

[Deadpool]

I don't think there's much chance he's an average bat. If he can put up a wRC+ around 85 and if his defense in CF is elite, than he'll Pillar his way to some 2-win seasons before his legs slow down. He's currently projected for a wRC+ in the 60s, and I don't think you can ever really expect even a highly rated minor league outfielder to be an elite defender, so I'm expecting him to be more of a fast Ryan Goins.

 

If you go back to the pre-season posts, I wanted Pillar traded because I thought Alford would put up similar numbers, and would cost less. I still stand by that, I feel given the playing time he'll D and Speed his way to a couple of WAR. I don't expect him to be an allstar, just a useful piece, and better than McKinney.

 

What's with everyone believing that all Fisher could bring to the table is hitting? Have you seen him run? The guy is incredibly fast and isn't nearly as poor of an outfielder as you guys are making him out to be. That's not me saying I think he'll put it together, but he has just as many tools as Alford has for instance.

 

Fisher has LOOKED awful in the OF when I've watched him, he certainly fails the eye test. I don't think there's really enough of a sample size to judge his numbers on D, but I've seen some bad routes and some awkward plays beyond just the ball to the face bit.