MLB 2019 Draft

[BlueRocky]

I agree draft strength doesn’t work the same way compared to NBA/NFL.

 

It has more to do with predictability of where the talent is. It doesn’t bode well for high drafting teams when the best talent end up being 3rd and 5th round picks and exceed their projections while most of the first round picks turn out fodder in the minors or replacement level. This has actually happened many times in the past.

 

Many drafts in the past had their best talent not in the first round and BA did a study on this. They released a list of the top drafts over the past few decades and list them by how many HoF and highest WAR produced by each draft. In summary, they said teams have gotten better at evaluating draft talent now compared to 1980-1990s because the real high WAR guys tend not to fall deeply unnoticed. verseus how much of the top talent get actually drafted in the 1st round.

 

The best draft in recent memory was 2011:

3. 2011 Draft

First Round: 190 WAR

 

This draft class was so ridiculously deep that emerging big leaguers like Trevor Story, Blake Snell, Mike Clevinger and Brandon Nimmo are snubbed from the lists below. The Red Sox found MVP Mookie Betts in the fifth round.

 

First Pick: Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pirates

 

First-Round Standouts: SS Francisco Lindor, 3B Anthony Rendon, OF George Springer, RHP Gerrit Cole, RHP Trevor Bauer, RHP Jose Fernandez, RHP Sonny Gray, 2B Javier Baez

Edited May 25, 2019 by BlueRocky

[P2F]

I kind of hope the Jays draft Baty for reasons.

[TheOutsider]

Strong agree here.

 

The strength of the top end of a draft can also change dramatically in retrospect with one or two big flops.

 

2014 is really a draft to look back on. Interesting how the best players ended up being 7, 8, 10, 13, and 25.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2014&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

 

I remember that draft very well. I also remember very clearly how much people on this board didn't want the Jays to pick Trea Turner, which is funny now that you can look back with hindsight.

[Angrioter]

Just from a casual perspective, it seems to me that Baty and Carroll both seem like they are dropping because of stupid scouty stuff that makes no sense and are obvious market inefficiencies; Carroll for his height and Baty for his age. Obviously I'm not proficient in this area but if these are the only knocks on these two guys, I expect them to have two of the better careers going forward where I'd probably peg a guy like Bobby Witt to bust.

 

Pujols (Old) and Altuve (Small)

[Angrioter]

I remember that draft very well. I also remember very clearly how much people on this board didn't want the Jays to pick Trea Turner, which is funny now that you can look back with hindsight.

 

This board really hate Trea. 😂

[Carlos Danger]

I was at a Memorial Day weekend BBQ/Party yesterday. Matt Allan was pitching against a local high school recently and some friends at the party are familiar with him/know him.. They seem to think he will go to Gainesville... (Gators) He is already a commit. So, seems a risky pick... One mock draft has the Giants picking him.. Edited May 27, 2019 by Carlos Danger

[Pendleton]

I was at a Memorial Day weekend BBQ/Party yesterday. Matt Allan was pitching against a local high school recently and some friends at the party are familiar with him/know him.. They seem to think he will go to Gainesville... (Gators) He is already a commit. So, seems a risky pick... One mock draft has the Giants picking him..

 

Every top HS player has a college commitment in place.

[Carlos Danger]

Every top HS player has a college commitment in place.

 

I understand that. However, many for the right money will forgo their commitment. I am not sure in this case he will from what I was hearing, or it would take boo coo dollars above slot.

[Laika]

Every top HS player has a college commitment in place.

 

And it is super common for everyone around said players to emphasize how strong their college commitment is, as a transparent group effort to increase their leverage with MLB teams.

[Carlos Danger]

And it is super common for everyone around said players to emphasize how strong their college commitment is, as a transparent group effort to increase their leverage with MLB teams.

 

True. However, many examples and with the Blue Jays, where they didn’t sign and ended up going to College. The comp pick the team got next year was not equal or above the talent level available at previous yrs pick.

 

I would be very careful is what I am saying.

[metafour]

I understand that. However, many for the right money will forgo their commitment. I am not sure in this case he will from what I was hearing, or it would take boo coo dollars above slot.

 

No offense, but college baseball fans are literally useless as a "source" on the signability of high school prospects. For one, very few of them know anything about the MLB draft in general, and secondly, they are highly biased towards whatever school they support. So no s***, Florida Gator fans think that he's going to make it to campus. The reality? If he's a first round pick, there is a 95%+ chance that he's signing. And if there was actually talk about him not signing, why has it not been reported by any draft writer who would certainly know more about the situation than Joe Schmoe the Gators fan? We already know that Al Leiter's kid has a $4+ million dollar tag that makes him a difficult sign...I haven't heard anything about obscene demands from Allen, which means that he should be signable.

 

None of this matters as he is highly unlikely to be in play for us at #11 anyway.

[Carlos Danger]

No offense, but college baseball fans are literally useless as a "source" on the signability of high school prospects. For one, very few of them know anything about the MLB draft in general, and secondly, they are highly biased towards whatever school they support. So no s***, Florida Gator fans think that he's going to make it to campus. The reality? If he's a first round pick, there is a 95%+ chance that he's signing. And if there was actually talk about him not signing, why has it not been reported by any draft writer who would certainly know more about the situation than Joe Schmoe the Gators fan? We already know that Al Leiter's kid has a $4+ million dollar tag that makes him a difficult sign...I haven't heard anything about obscene demands from Allen, which means that he should be signable.

 

None of this matters as he is highly unlikely to be in play for us at #11 anyway.

 

Not just Gator fans amigo... Personal friends and family..

 

Tyler Beede...!!

[BlueRocky]

We’re not really connected to Matt Allan at all, and if we do go the pitching route I think they’re leaning towards Rutledge, Manoah, and Thompson.

 

I’ve also heard from a scout that they’d much rather take Brennan Malone and his stuff/upside/frame than Allan even though he might be the higher rated prep arm.

 

The only 1st round guy with serious signability concerns I’m hearing is Jack Leiter. Without those issues he might be a top 15 pick. Not only because of the bloodlines and pitchability, but he has one of the nastiest breaking balls in the entire draft paired with a mid 90s FB. Also just turned 19 and very polished for his age. Rumor say he only wants to go Yankees or Mets though and wants more than 4M++, and Vanderbilt is a difficult commit to break.

 

Our slot value at 11 is $4,547,500

 

True. However, many examples and with the Blue Jays, where they didn’t sign and ended up going to College. The comp pick the team got next year was not equal or above the talent level available at previous yrs pick.

 

I would be very careful is what I am saying.

 

Just for the record, having the no. 5 and no. 12 pick in next year’s draft isn’t the end of the world. We could do some serious damage in picking up two blue chip guys next year in that scenario, hence why I’m not shying away from picking Carroll even if he has some signability concerns which might slip him down to Arizona.

 

Teams with two picks that high can often set rippling dominos down the entire 1st round, and that’s also some serious pool money for one draft (13M+, we have $8,463,300 in 2019)

Edited May 28, 2019 by BlueRocky

[Boxcar]

True. However, many examples and with the Blue Jays, where they didn’t sign and ended up going to College. The comp pick the team got next year was not equal or above the talent level available at previous yrs pick.

 

I would be very careful is what I am saying.

 

Are you sure?

[Carlos Danger]

We’re not really connected to Matt Allan at all, and if we do go the pitching route I think they’re leaning towards Rutledge, Manoah, and Thompson.

 

I’ve also heard from a scout that they’d much rather take Brennan Malone and his stuff/upside/frame than Allan even though he might be the higher rated prep arm.

 

The only 1st round guy with serious signability concerns I’m hearing is Jack Leiter. Without those issues he might be a top 15 pick. Not only because of the bloodlines and pitchability, but he has one of the nastiest breaking balls in the entire draft paired with a mid 90s FB. Also just turned 19 and very polished for his age. Rumor say he only wants to go Yankees or Mets though and wants more than 4M++, and Vanderbilt is a difficult commit to break.

 

Our slot value at 11 is $4,547,500

 

 

 

Just for the record, having the no. 5 and no. 12 pick in next year’s draft isn’t the end of the world. We could do some serious damage in picking up two blue chip guys next year in that scenario, hence why I’m not shying away from picking Carroll even if he has some signability concerns which might slip him down to Arizona.

 

Teams with two picks that high can often set rippling dominos down the entire 1st round, and that’s also some serious pool money for one draft (13M+, we have $8,463,300 in 2019)

 

Some mock drafts have him going to the Giants one slot below us at #10.

 

Also, if we didn't sign a pick, not guaranteed at 12 next year. Depends if others teams have issues also. However, yes we would be around there give or take one or two spots.

 

Regardless, I agree, doubt we will be targeting a high-school pitcher this year.

[BlueRocky]

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1&type=3

 

Fangraphs isn’t always accurate, but they have Alek Manoah as the only 45+ FV pitcher behind Lodolo.

His stuff sits 94-97 and T98 with a 60/65 grade FB and SL, projected average CH and command. He’s also drawing notice in the college scene with much success, his team is now in the tournament as the 15th seed and he’s their Ace. If Manoah’s body type wasn’t a concern he’d safely be a top 10 pick.

 

I’ve been reading up articles on Jackson Rutledge and he’s an interesting case.

The kid is listed 6-8, 260 lbs so he isn’t your typical bean pole either. When he had his hip injury, he went to intern at P3 where he ran the Rapsodo machines and tracked data, there he learned to rebuild his pitch mechanics and tweaking the spin efficiency on his pitches.

 

The result is he broke his slurvey breaking ball into two distinct pitches: A nasty slider with hard bite and a more tradional curveball.

 

Fangraph says Rutledge sits 95-98, T100 with a 65 FB, 60 SL, 55 CB, 50 CH, and 45 CMD. The command part is probably factoring in to his reliever risk, but they also said that about Nate Pearson. He’s also coming out of a JuCo program and just turned 20.

 

I would still go position player, but if you’re going to gamble on a stud pitcher you want the guy with the highest ceiling unless his health concerns are too much to stomach.

Edited May 28, 2019 by BlueRocky

[Rusty_Savage]

True. However, many examples and with the Blue Jays, where they didn’t sign and ended up going to College. The comp pick the team got next year was not equal or above the talent level available at previous yrs pick.

 

I would be very careful is what I am saying.

 

Marcus Stroman >>>>> Tyler Beede

[Krylian]

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1&type=3

 

Fangraphs isn’t always accurate, but they have Alek Manoah as the only 45+ FV pitcher behind Lodolo.

His stuff sits 94-97 and T98 with a 60/65 grade FB and SL, projected average CH and command. He’s also drawing notice in the college scene with much success, his team is now in the tournament as the 15th seed and he’s their Ace. If Manoah’s body type wasn’t a concern he’d safely be a top 10 pick.

 

I’ve been reading up articles on Jackson Rutledge and he’s an interesting case.

The kid is listed 6-8, 260 lbs so he isn’t your typical bean pole either. When he had his hip injury, he went to intern at P3 where he ran the Rapsodo machines and tracked data, there he learned to rebuild his pitch mechanics and tweaking the spin efficiency on his pitches.

 

The result is he broke his slurvey breaking ball into two distinct pitches: A nasty slider with hard bite and a more tradional curveball.

 

Fangraph says Rutledge sits 95-98, T100 with a 65 FB, 60 SL, 55 CB, 50 CH, and 45 CMD. The command part is probably factoring in to his reliever risk, but they also said that about Nate Pearson. He’s also coming out of a JuCo program and just turned 20.

 

I would still go position player, but if you’re going to gamble on a stud pitcher you want the guy with the highest ceiling unless his health concerns are too much to stomach.

 

We're not allowed to use the term command anymore.

[Laika]

We're not allowed to use the term command anymore.

 

Message board police reporting for duty.

 

You can use command or control all you want. They are synonyms. Just don't try to say they are different things!

[Krylian]

Message board police reporting for duty.

 

You can use command or control all you want. They are synonyms. Just don't try to say they are different things!

 

Thank you for the clarification. I will adjust accordingly.

[TheOutsider]

Message board police reporting for duty.

 

You can use command or control all you want. They are synonyms. Just don't try to say they are different things!

 

When people use them to mean different things, I just interpret it as 'the pitcher they're talking about has little command but can get away with it, that's why they think he's got control, even though that word doesn't mean anything significant'.

[Ray]

The Athletic Mock Draft v2 just posted today has us taking Jackson Rutledge.

[jays4life19]

JFL19 mock draft just went live. He has us taking Corbin Carroll

 

1.Baltimore: Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State

2.Kansas City: Bobby Whitt Jr, SS, Heritage HS

3.Chicago White Sox: JJ Bledlay, OF, Vaderbilt

4.Miami Marlins: Hunter Bishop, OF, Arizona St

5.Detroit Tigers: Riley Greene, OF, Hagerty HS

6.San Diego: C.J Abrams, SS, Trinity HS

7.Cincinnati: Andrew Vaughn, 1B, California

8.Texas: Brad Baty, 3B, Lake Travis HS

9.Atlanta: Nick Lodolo, LHP, Texas Christian

10.San Francisco: Bryson Stott, SS, UNLV

11.Toronto: Corbin Carroll, OF, Lakeside HS

12.New York Mets: Alek Monoah, RHP, West Virginia

13.Minnesota: Shae Langeliers, C, Baylor

14.Philadelphia: Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto JC

15.LA Angels: Zack Thompson, LHP, Kentucky

16.Arizona: Matthew Allan, RHP, Seminole HS

17.Washington: Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech

18.Pittsburgh: George Kirby, RHP, Elon

19.St Louis: Logan Davidson, SS, Clemson

20.Seattle: Anthony Volpe, SS, Delbarton HS

21.Atlanta: Kameron Misner, OF, Missouri

22.Tampa Bay: Brennan Malone; RHP, IMG Academy

23.Colorado: Gunnar Henderson, SS, Morgan Academy.

24.Cleveland: Will Wilson, SS, NC State

25.LA Dodgers: Daniel Espino, RHP, Georgia Premier

26.Arizona: Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary Grove HS

27.Chicago Cubs: Michael Busch, 1B/OF, North Carolina

28.Milwaukee: Maurice Hampton, CF, Memphis University HS

29.Oakland: Greg Jones, SS, UNC Wilmington

30.New York, Tyler Callihan, 3B, Providence HS

31.LA Dodgers: Kody Hoese, 3B, Tulane

32.Houston Astros: Seth Johnson, RHP, Campbell

[BlueRocky]

The Athletic Mock Draft v2 just posted today has us taking Jackson Rutledge.

 

No. 11: Toronto Blue Jays

 

Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto Junior College

 

The most basic description of Rutledge immediately calls to mind the Jays’ current top pitching prospect, Nate Pearson. A guy with some real helium after a dominant JuCo season (134 strikeouts to 30 walks over 82.2 innings with a 0.88 ERA), Rutledge has big-league size (he’s 6-foot-8) and the stuff to go with it, regularly sitting in the upper 90s. Though the Jays might be reluctant to take a pitcher this high, it’s currently their biggest organizational need, and Pearson’s success might buoy their confidence just enough to go the JuCo route again. — Andrew Stoeten (@AndrewStoeten)

 

I listen to his pod a fair bit, not surprised with this pick.

 

Manoah went 9 to the Braves, Baty went 18 and Carroll went 32.

 

This wasn’t a concensus or a top list, it was a The Athletic beat-writers collaboration mock draft. So take it as it is.

Edited May 28, 2019 by BlueRocky

[Vdubfan]

Anybody want to post Keith Law's new mock?

[Brownie19]

Anybody want to post Keith Law's new mock?

 

I mean I guess we could. I am a little short on toilet paper.

[Todd]

A couple other mock drafts have the blue jays taking Alek Monoah. Which is what they need more pitching then

any other thing. And More solid outfield prospects. Because the so called top outfield prospect is a big fat bust.

Anthony Alford.

[KevinGregg]

A couple other mock drafts have the blue jays taking Alek Monoah. Which is what they need more pitching then

any other thing. And More solid outfield prospects. Because the so called top outfield prospect is a big fat bust.

Anthony Alford.

 

Drafting pitching is too risky because they can just get hurt and lose 2 years to TJ at any time. We've got a ton of good infield prospects in the system, and I expect Shatkins will trade for some established pitchers who are currently healthy once it's time to compete again, rather than trying to find several guys in the draft who will all be healthy and effective at one time several years down the road.

[Boxcar]

Thank you for the clarification. I will adjust accordingly.

 

Can you tell me the name of a pitcher with great command and average control?

[Boxcar]

I mean I guess we could. I am a little short on toilet paper.

 

I wouldn't even waste 2 ply on Keith Law