MLB 2019 Draft

[Angrioter]

Is Manoah a chubby dude?

[BlueRocky]

Is Manoah a chubby dude?

 

6-7, 270 lbs might be generous

 

 

Definitely interested.

 

Which ones? There’s like twenty pages of these things.

 

Guessing "starter ceilings" is pointless, and if you look at scouting reports vs. "projected ceilings" they often don't even make logical sense. Jackson Rutledge is 95-98+ while flashing two plus breaking balls...uhmm, if that clicks, he is obviously AT LEAST a #2 starter LMAO. Some reports even have his changeup as plus at times. I'd say the same for Manoah who feature two 65-grade pitches; a guy like that can pick up a changeup and grossly surpass whatever "mid-rotation starter" label you'll see thrown onto him.

 

Look at stuff; not a guesstimated "projected rotational ceiling" that is wrong 90% of the time anyway. At the end of the day rotational ceiling comes down to values that are unpredictable.

 

This is pretty much true. There’s no exact science to projecting these arms, as to why I’m not thrilled when we take pitchers with our highest selection.

Looking back at some previously draft years, the better pitchers were actually taken in the back half of the first round or later, and the can’t miss guys often end up missing. A lot of these scouting reports become a moot point.

But general consensus is this year’s draft is pretty weak in terms of top tier pitching talent.

 

I hear next year could be a stronger draft class with a deeper pool of arms, and we’re likely in the mix for a top 10 pick again

Edited May 17, 2019 by BlueRocky

[Ray]

BA scouting report on JJ Goss?

[BlueRocky]

Sup Ray, here you go

 

Rank 29

J.J. Goss

Cypress Ranch HS, HoustonRHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 185 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Texas A&M

Scouting Report: Goss entered his senior season as perhaps the best No. 2 pitcher on any high school team in the country, as righthander Matthew Thompson also plays for Houston’s Cypress Ranch High. Thompson was a first-team Preseason All-American, while Goss was voted to the second team. This spring, however, Goss has been the more impressive arm, routinely throwing in the 90-96 mph range with his fastball, a plus slider and changeup. Goss’ slider is in the low 80s with tight spin, and he has impressive feel for his mid-80s changeup with solid fading life. Prior to his senior season, Goss showed impressive strike-throwing ability and worked mostly in the upper 80s with excellent feel to spin, but a commitment to improving his body over the offseason has allowed his stuff to tick up to the point where his pure stuff is now comparable to the best high school pitchers in the class. With a 6-foot-3, 185-pound frame and plenty of athleticism—he also plays outfield for Cypress Ranch—Goss has room to add more weight as he continues to mature physically. The best of another deep crop of Texas A&M pitching recruits, Goss has played his way into Day 1 consideration, if he wasn’t there already, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Goss drafted in the first round thanks to his ability to throw strikes and the recent improvement in his pure stuff.

 

I was also looking at some arms in the back half, guys like Kirby and Priester maybe as an underslot option. Not likely to happen though, just curious.

[TheOutsider]

Which ones? There’s like twenty pages of these things.

 

The top four college pitchers plus Rutledge

[BlueRocky]

J4L already posted two of these but ok.

 

rank 8

Last: 7

Nick Lodolo

Texas ChristianLHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-6 | Wt: 180 | B-T: L-L

Commit/Drafted: Pirates '16 (1 comp)

Scouting Report: A first-team Preseason All-American, Lodolo is one of the few high-profile college pitching prospects with a long track record of starting in college. After the Pirates drafted Lodolo with the 41st overall pick in 2016 but failed to sign him, Lodolo made his way to Texas Christian, where he started 15 games as both as freshman and sophomore. Despite his durability, Lodolo was more solid than spectacular, posting a 4.35 ERA in 2017 and a 4.32 mark in 2018. He allowed more hits than scouts expected given his solid stuff, capped off by allowing more than 9.3 hits per nine innings as a sophomore. Lodolo has taken an impressive step forward as a junior, however. A 6-foot-6, 180-pound lefthander who still has room to fill out, Lodolo has pitched mostly off of two pitches this spring—a low-90s fastball that touches 94-95 mph with solid running life out of a lower arm slot and a sweepy breaking ball that flashes the makings of a plus pitch but needs more consistency. As a sophomore, Lodolo regularly showcased a changeup that had plus potential as well, but as his fastball command improved this spring (his walk rate went from 3.27 walks per nine innings in 2017 to 1.65 per nine through his first 10 starts in 2019), he has used the changeup less often. Lodolo’s stuff isn’t quite as loud as the typical top college starter of a draft class, but he is a high-probability major leaguer with above-average control of three pitches that are current average offerings but could be plus pitches in the future. He still has more projection than the typical three-year collegiate arm thanks to a lean body that can add more weight, and he was one of the best performers in the country through his first seven starts of the season before hitting a slight speed bump in April. Lodolo is a no-doubt starter who has proven to be a reliable Big 12 arm, but he profiles as a middle-of-the-rotation starter more than a No. 1 or No. 2 starter in the majors.

 

rank 11

Last: 14

Zack Thompson

Kentucky LHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 225 | B-T: L-L

Commit/Drafted: Rays '16 (11)

Scouting Report: Thompson ranked No. 308 on the 2016 BA 500, but his draft ranking was dinged by a sore shoulder that limited him as a high school junior. He turned down a significant signing bonus when the Rays drafted him in the 11th round, instead opting to head to Kentucky. He made an immediate impact for the Wildcats, starting during the midweek and relieving on the weekends. He beat Indiana in an NCAA regional and ranked 26th in the country with 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings as a freshman, but his sophomore season was not as smooth. He was working as Kentucky’s Saturday starter when he had to sit out seven starts while nursing a sore elbow. Thompson returned to pitch in early May and also pitched during the summer in both the Cape Cod League and for USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team. This spring, he’s been one of the best pitchers in the Southeastern Conference. He struck out nine or more hitters in nine of his first 11 starts this season, including 13 strikeouts in a complete-game shutout against Georgia. Thompson has one of the best swing-and-miss rates among this year’s college pitchers in part due to a 91-92 mph fastball that can reach 94 mph when he needs it. Thompson’s fastball earns 55 grades, with a few scouts willing to call it a true plus pitch. His 84-85 mph slider is a high-spin rate, above-average pitch and has some power to it, although it sometimes gets loopier and slower as well. His significantly slower mid-70s curveball is less consistent, ranging anywhere from fringe-average to above-average depending on the pitch. He doesn’t throw his changeup all that often, but when he does, it is an average pitch as well. Thompson’s delivery is solid and he has made significant strides with his control this year, improving it to average even if his command still wavers. As a four-pitch lefty with success in the SEC pitching on Friday nights, Thompson is one of the most talented starting pitchers in a thin class. Scouts typically project him as a future No. 4 starter, but he may fall slightly below his talent level because of his injury history.

 

rank 13

Last: 21

Alek Manoah

West VirginiaRHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-6 | Wt: 260 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Scouting Report: Manoah split time between starting and relieving during his first two seasons with West Virginia, but after a stellar campaign as a starter in the Cape Cod League last summer—when he posted a 2.70 ERA with 48 strikeouts in 33.1 innings—Manoah has made a successful transition to a full-time starting role this spring. Through his first 12 starts this season, Manoah has been one of the more dominant arms in the country, posting a 2.07 ERA with 108 strikeouts over his first 82.2 innings (11.76 strikeouts per nine innings) and the lowest walk rate (2.29 per nine) of his career. Manoah mostly works off of two pitches—a power fastball that sits in the mid- to upper 90s and a hard slider that projects as a second plus pitch. While Monoah has shown a changeup at times, he’s mostly been a two-pitch starter this season. He also entered the season with significant reliever risk because of his erratic control, large, 6-foot-6, 260-pound frame and questionable athleticism. However, he has started pitching exclusively out of the stretch and, as a result, has improved his strike-throwing ability enough to give him a real shot of sticking as a starter in pro ball. But while his walk rate is down significantly this season, Manoah still needs to refine his command—as evidenced by 17 hit batters over his first 12 starts—and teams will likely be concerned with how well he is able to manage his body moving forward. This list of major league starting pitchers who have had success at or near Manoah’s size is a short one, with CC Sabathia, Aaron Harang, Justin Masterson and Michael Pineda some of the names who qualify. Still, Manoah’s stuff compares nicely with most of the pitchers in the 2019 class, and he’s steadily improved his draft stock with each start. Manoah should be one of the first college pitchers drafted this June.

 

rank 14

Last: 15

Jackson Rutledge

San Jacinto (Texas) JCRHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-8 | Wt: 260 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Scouting Report: Rutledge entered the season as the second-ranked junior college prospect in the class after fellow righthander Carter Stewart because of his high school pedigree, tantalizing raw stuff and imposing, 6-foot-8, 260-pound frame. Out of high school, Rutledge had a solid, 90-93 mph fastball with impressive sinking life, but he needed to improve both his secondaires and overall control. Rutledge threw just 15.2 innings as a freshman at Arkansas before going down with a season-ending hip injury. Following the season, he decided to transfer to San Jacinto (Texas) JC and expected to enter the 2020 draft as a Kentucky commit. Those plans changed, however, when Rutledge came out this spring showing some of the best pure stuff of any pitcher in the country with improved control. Rutledge has regularly been into the upper 90s with his fastball, and he has held that velocity into the sixth and seventh innings of his starts throughout the season. In addition, he’s shown a pair of plus breaking balls in both a slider and curveball. Previously, Rutledge threw a hybrid breaking ball that was more slurve-like, but after interning with Pro Pitching Performance last summer (while he rehabbed from injury) Rutledge worked to differentiate those pitches with Rapsodo feedback and now has two distinct, swing-and-miss breaking pitches. He also has a changeup that could be a fourth above-average offering. While he isn’t facing the strongest competition, Rutledge struck out 123 batters through his first 12 starts and 77.2 innings (14.25 strikeouts per nine) this spring, with just 28 walks (3.25 walks per nine). Since his time in high school, Rutledge has significantly shortened his arm action. It’s now a incredibly tight and compact delivery, to the point that some scouts wonder how he’s able to generate and maintain his velocity. The upgrade in arm action has allowed him to improve his control, but scouts think he’ll need to continue refining his command when he faces stiffer competition at the pro level. Regardless, his pure stuff and the deception he creates with his delivery should give him plenty of room for error as he climbs the ladder. Rutledge has the upside of a No. 2 starter, but he carries some reliever risk due to his size and history of control problems.

 

rank 20

Last: 19

George Kirby

Elon RHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 205 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Mets '16 (32)

Scouting Report: One of the best strike-throwers in the country, Kirby formed an impressive one-two combination with righthander Kyle Brnovich at Elon this spring. Kirby is the higher-rated draft prospect, however, due to his slew of starter’s traits and solid four-pitch mix. While there are pitchers with louder pure stuff than the 6-foot-4, 201-pound righthander, Kirby is among the most likely 2019 draft prospects to make a major league impact because of his clean arm action and plus command. Through 11 starts and 71.2 innings this spring, Kirby had struck out 84 hitters and walked just five, which ranked as the best strikeout-to-walk ratio (16.8) in the country. While some scouts will critique the level of competition that Kirby faced in the Colonial Athletic Association and don’t expect him to miss many bats against better competition, it’s impossible to ignore his strike-throwing ability. There’s also his impressive 2018 in the Cape Cod League, where Kirby worked as a reliever and posted a 1.38 ERA over 13 innings, striking out 24 and walking only one. Kirby’s fastball has reached as high as 97 mph in the past, but this spring he’s worked mostly in the low 90s while touching 94-95 mph consistently. His fastball grades out as a plus offering because of his ability to spot it to both sides of the plate and elevate it when necessary. Kirby throws a curveball and a slider, and both pitches will flash plus at times, but they lack consistency right now and might be average pitches, at best, in a starting role. Kirby’s top offspeed pitch could be his mid-80s changeup, which he throws with conviction and consistently lands in the bottom of the strike zone. Kirby looks the part of a solid, middle- to back-of-the-rotation starter, and he should be selected in the middle of the first round this June.

[Boxcar]

I will be very upset if they go with a pitcher.

[jays4life19]

I doubt he signs but he would be a fun selection:

 

79

Last: 81

Spencer Jones

La Costa Canyon HS, Carlsbad, Calif. LHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-7 | Wt: 212 | B-T: L-L

Commit/Drafted: Vanderbilt

Scouting Report: Jones entered the season as one of the best two-way players in the class as a 6-foot-7, 212-pound lefthander with massive upside on the mound as well as surprising athleticism and feel to hit as a first base prospect. His season was cut short after he underwent surgery to repair a small fracture in his elbow, but Jones did recover soon enough to hit for his La Costa Canyon team late in the season. While teams seriously looked at Jones as both a pitcher and hitter, his upside is highest on the mound, where he has reached the mid-90s with his fastball and sat in the 89-93 mph range last summer. He also showed a mid- to upper-70s curveball with 12-to-6 break and tremendous depth that projects as a plus offering in the future. Jones doesn’t have the quickest arm, but his delivery is surprisingly in-sync for a prep pitcher of his size who has only been pitching seriously for a year and a half—a testament to his above-average athleticism and body control. Offensively, Jones has solid feel for the barrel and decent strike-zone recognition, although he will chase pitches at times. He’s an above-average runner at the moment, and some scouts believe he could develop plus raw power in the future as his body continues to mature. Jones figures to be a tough sign out of Vanderbilt, especially with his injury this spring, and he could turn into a first round-caliber prospect in a few years if he adds the physicality that most scouts think is coming. Jones should be a legitimate two-way player with the Commodores.

 

Hitting:

 

Pitching:

[TheOutsider]

J4L already posted two of these but ok.

 

Thanks! I'd actually be on board with both Lodolo (unlikely to fall?) and Thompson if the Jays' front office doesn't think they've found their next Groshans (aka high school hitter they really love), but just going off the reports I'd have to say I prefer Corbin Carroll.

[Pendleton]

Can one of you post Gunnar Henderson's report?

[jays4life19]

Can one of you post Gunnar Henderson's report?

 

36

Last: 39

Gunnar Henderson

Morgan Academy, Selma, Ala. SS

Notes:

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 194 | B-T: L-R

Commit/Drafted: Auburn

Scouting Report: The top prospect in Alabama, Henderson is a physical, 6-foot-3, 194-pound shortstop with high upside both offensively and defensively. At the plate, Henderson has the potential for an average hit tool with current above-average power that could turn into plus power down the line. His body has improved this spring, as he’s grown into his 6-foot-3 frame with even more room to continue to add strength. Defensively, teams are still mixed in regards to Henderson’s future. For a rangier kid without elite quickness, some scouts believe Henderson will need to move to third base, where he has plus defensive potential with solid hands and 60-grade arm strength. Others, however, have seen him handle shortstop well and believe he has enough athleticism to remain there, where he could be an average defender. To meet those aspirations, Henderson will need to shorten up some of his actions in the infield—he can get long with his throwing motion at times—and also improve his footwork and ability to throw from multiple angles. He has allowed the game to speed up on him at times, but he should at least get a chance at shortstop at the next level before moving to third base. He has enough hitting ability and power to profile well at either position. An Auburn commit, Henderson could go off the draft board at some point on Day 1.

[BlueRocky]

Thanks! I'd actually be on board with both Lodolo (unlikely to fall?) and Thompson if the Jays' front office doesn't think they've found their next Groshans (aka high school hitter they really love), but just going off the reports I'd have to say I prefer Corbin Carroll.

 

I still very much prefer a high upside bat.

This draft seems solid in position player talent. If a team ahead of us picks a pitcher, that's just an extra bat we can choose from.

Guys like Vaughn and Bishop may fall a couple spots, which will mix up the order a lot. And if Texas really goes under-slot at #8 even more possibilities open up for our pick at 11.

I don't think position matters as much as getting the best guy available. If a guy completely rakes in the minors, they will always find a spot for him to play, or he can also become a very valuable trade chip.

 

For example if we got Nolan Gorman last year, and he's been absolutely raking. And two years down the road we realize he's getting blocked by Vlad and we can't find playing time for him, we can package him up for a front rotation starter, like what Red Sox did for Chris Sale or Astros did for Verlander. You wanna get as many blue chippers as possible regardless where they're playing in college/HS.

[Brownie19]

Apparently Carter Stewart's going to pitch in Japan...

 

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Carter Stewart has signed with Fukuoka of the Japanese Pacific League.

Stewart was the eighth pick of the 2018 draft, but did not sign with the Braves after concerns rose over his asymptomatic wrist issue. He filed a grievance to become a free agent, but the Braves won and Stewart elected to attend Eastern Florida State College; a two-year school that made him eligible for the 2019 draft. The stuff hasn't been as good this spring as it was last year -- Stewart was widely considered the top prep pitcher in the class -- but he still had some first-round talk. It now appears we may be seeing Stewart beginning his career in the JPL instead.

[z3r0s]

as long as this doesn't lock him into their control, this is a pretty awesome way to develop yourself. May or may not give him the best chance for success, but it should be one hell of a ride either way.

[Slade]

So he has to be getting paid pretty well considering he was still going to be a comp/second rounder. Boras has talked about guys playing in Japan before didn't really expect anyone this young to consider it.

[Spanky__99]

Apparently Carter Stewart's going to pitch in Japan...

 

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Carter Stewart has signed with Fukuoka of the Japanese Pacific League.

Stewart was the eighth pick of the 2018 draft, but did not sign with the Braves after concerns rose over his asymptomatic wrist issue. He filed a grievance to become a free agent, but the Braves won and Stewart elected to attend Eastern Florida State College; a two-year school that made him eligible for the 2019 draft. The stuff hasn't been as good this spring as it was last year -- Stewart was widely considered the top prep pitcher in the class -- but he still had some first-round talk. It now appears we may be seeing Stewart beginning his career in the JPL instead.

 

This news is fascinating, so they'll have 10 years of control, they likely have a verbal agreement to when they'd post him depending on the contract.

[BlueRocky]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-mlb-draft-prospects-with-best-tools/

 

2019 MLB Draft Prospects With Best Tools

 

BEST HITTER

 

High School

1. Riley Greene

2. Corbin Carroll

3. Brett Baty

 

College

1. Andrew Vaughn

2. Adley Rutschman

3. J.J. Bleday

 

Scout's take on Andrew Vaughn: "He has a preternatural feel for the strike zone, tremendous power, looseness and a complete offensive profile overall."

 

BEST POWER

 

High School

1. Rece Hinds

2. Brett Baty

3. Bobby Witt Jr.

 

College

1. Andrew Vaughn

2. Hunter Bishop

3. Kody Hoese

 

Scout's take on Rece Hinds: "Biggest raw juice in the draft. Nobody can hit a ball as far as this kid."

 

BEST SPEED

 

High School

1. James Beard

2. Dasan Brown

3. CJ Abrams

 

College

1. Greg Jones

2. Gabe Holt

3. Jake Mangum

 

Scout's take on Greg Jones: "80 run tool. The best run tool I've ever seen live. He ran like a 3.9 from the righthanded batter's box. It's legit."

 

Best Strike Zone Judgment

 

High School

1. Corbin Carroll

2. Riley Greene

3. Brett Baty

 

College

1. Logan Wyatt

2. Andrew Vaughn

3. Adley Rutschman

 

Scout's take on Logan Wyatt: "As good as it gets at tracking the baseball. Incredible batting eye."

 

Best Defensive Catcher

 

High School

1. Jonathan French

2. Ethan Hearn

3. Logan Tanner

 

College

1. Adley Rutschman

2. Cooper Johnson

3. Shea Langeliers

 

Scout's take on Adley Rutschman: "He makes the toughest position look the easiest ... He's a better catcher than Austin Hedges."

 

Best Defensive Infielder

 

High School

1. Bobby Witt Jr.

2. Nasim Nunez

3. Yordys Valdes

 

College

1. Bryson Stott

2. Cam Shepherd

3. Logan Davidson

 

Scout's take on Bobby Witt Jr.: "One of the most talented high school shortstops I have seen in a long time. And great intangibles. Makeup is off the chart. He has poise and tools."

 

Best Defensive Outfielder

 

High School

1. Corbin Carroll

2. Jerrion Ealy

3. Sammy Siani

 

College

1. Jake Mangum

2. Zach Watson

3. Dominic Fletcher

 

Scout's take on Corbin Carroll: "Great routes. Really good instincts to the ball. He stays in center field. He shows you a 55-60 (grade) arm with good carry."

 

Best Fastball

 

High School

1. Daniel Espino

2. Brennan Malone

3. Matthew Allan

 

College

1. Jackson Rutledge

2. Ryne Nelson

3. Alek Manoah

 

Scout's take on Daniel Espino: "90-grade fastball because of not just the velo -- it's the movement ... He has a low release point with a high-spin fastball ... His fastball swing-and-miss rate is really, really good."

 

Best Breaking Ball

 

High School

1. Matthew Allan

2. Jack Leiter

3. Daniel Espino

 

College

1. Zack Thompson

2. Jackson Rutledge

3. Ryne Nelson

 

Scout's take on Matthew Allan: "Guys who can throw a good curveball, they have feel and wrist flexibility ... He might have two 70-grade pitches with the fastball and curveball."

 

Best Changeup

 

High School

1. Hunter Barco

2. Jimmy Lewis

3. Jack Leiter

 

College

1. Ethan Small

2. Nick Lodolo

3. Ryan Pepiot

 

Scout's take on Hunter Barco: "It's in there -- I guarantee it ... His change-up is going to be plus, I promise you."

 

Best Control

 

High School

1. Jack Leiter

2. Blake Walston

3. JJ Goss

 

College

1. George Kirby

2. Garrett Stallings

3. John Doxakis

 

Scout's take on George Kirby: "Kirby is pretty simple ... He fills the zone and can throw strikes with every pitch."

 

Best Athlete

 

High School

1. Jerrion Ealy

2. CJ Abrams

3. Bobby Witt Jr.

 

College

1. Hunter Bishop

2. Logan Davidson

3. Greg Jones

 

Scout's take on Jerrion Ealy: "He's a freak. Multi-sport guy ... but his athleticism, arm strength, power and bat speed stand out. Dynamite athlete."

[BlueRocky]

Keoni Cavaco

Rank #32

 

Eastlake HS, Chula Vista, Calif.3B

Notes:

Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 185 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: San Diego State

Scouting Report: One of the class’ biggest pop-up players in 2019, Cavaco wasn’t seen much over last year’s summer showcase circuit, though a few scouts saw him in the fall and were intrigued by his exciting toolset. But Cavaco started turning heads quickly this spring, gaining the attention of crosscheckers and scouting directors thanks to a projectable, 6-foot-1, 185-pound frame and plus power. Cavaco has a chance to reach 70-grade power as he continues to fill out, but big power isn’t his only selling point. He’s currently an above-average runner with above-average defensive ability at third base, and he has plus arm strength as well. With above-average or better tools across the board, Cavaco offers plenty of upside, but his hitting ability will be the biggest question mark and where teams are most split. Without an extensive track record, scouts are unsure how his bat will consistently play against high-level pitching. He has plus bat speed, but scouts have seen him swing and miss against average high school pitching a bit too much, and he currently doesn’t have the best plate coverage on the outer half. Cavaco has the tools to go as high as the back of the first round, but it might take a team with multiple Day 1 picks or a more optimistic report on his future hit tool to draft him that high given his lack of track record. Cavaco is a San Diego State commit.

 

High school prep bat mocked in backend of first round.. 70 grade power bat, infielder, above average tools across the board. Questions about his hit tool, huge pop-up in draft stock, rumors of an underslot pick.

 

Where have I heard this before?

 

Just for the record, I fully expect all the mock drafts and speculation to be pointless as Atkins pulls a name out nobody has ever heard of.

[Ray]

John Sickels underrated draft prospects (The Athletic)

 

Earlier this month we looked at top college prospects and then top high school prospects for the 2019 MLB draft

 

Let’s continue the draft coverage today with a look at some other potential early picks.

 

OTHER POTENTIAL EARLY PICKS

 

Tommy Henry, LHP, University of Michigan: Consistent performer, 3.38 ERA with 90/20 K/BB in 80 innings this year, very similar to past seasons, low-90s fastball, very good slider and changeup, strong pitchability, classic number four starter type, could sneak into second round.

 

Will Holland, SS, Auburn University: Athleticism projects well at shortstop, viewed as possible first round pick six months ago coming off strong Cape Cod League but hit poorly this spring (.248/.378/.420), hurting his stock; still flashes enough power and speed to be interesting.

 

Seth Johnson, RHP, Campbell University: 4.79 ERA with 69/27 K/BB in 56 innings this spring is unappealing but he’s a converted shortstop with a low-90s fastball and a slider, curve, and changeup that are all quite promising; will need time but there’s good ceiling here.

 

Greg Jones, SS, University of North Carolina-Wilmington: Switch-hitter with blazing speed (80-grade, 35 steals this year), .337/.482/.526 on the season; defense erratic and there’s questions about hitting at higher levels but more multi-category potential than many college bats, possible second-rounder.

 

Jack Kochanowicz, RHP, Harriton HS, Rosemont, Pennsylvania: Projectable cold-weather arm stands 6-6, already throws low-90s with more velocity possible, curveball and changeup also auspicious, University of Virginia commit but fresh arm may attract teams early enough to keep him from college.

 

Jimmy Lewis, RHP, Lake Travis HR, Austin, Texas: Another prep arm of interest, also stands 6-6, throws a touch harder than Kochanowicz but also has more experience; curveball and changeup look quality, athletic, good mound presence, LSU commit and will need to go early to avoid college but it’s possible.

 

Bryce Osmond, RHP, Jenks HS, Oklahoma: Athletic moundsman also plays shortstop but will pitch in pro ball; fastball as high as 95-96 though can be erratic; slider and changeup project well, usually throws strikes, home-state commit to Oklahoma State Cowboys but should be signable early enough.

 

Ryan Pepiot, RHP, Butler University: From Butler University in Indianapolis, 3.92 ERA in 78 innings with 126/44 K/BB; very high whiff rate, 92-96 MPH heat combined with plus changeup; needs to sharpen breaking stuff and refine command but the Ks will stand out to many clubs.

 

Chase Strumpf, 2B, UCLA: Hitting .289/.431/.469 this spring, which feels a touch disappointing but he has a good track record with wooden bats and has an excellent approach that should translate well to pro ball; glove is average but playable; second round potential.

 

Matthew Thompson, RHP, Cypress Ranch HS, Houston, Texas: Projected as possible first rounder a few months ago; stock slipped a bit due to inconsistent velocity but can hit 95 on the right day; slider gets slurvy but plus at times; Texas A&M commit, could still go in second round.

 

Mike Toglia, 1B, UCLA: Strumpf’s teammate at UCLA, hitting .316/.390/.617 with 13 homers; 6-5 switch-hitter with plus power, not a pure hitter and has contact concerns but few players in this class offer as much power; also has a very good glove at first base and could play outfield.

 

Anthony Volpe, SS, Delbarton HS, Morristown, New Jersey: Positives here are impressive contact hitting, superior instincts, high-energy play, and renowned makeup and intelligence; negatives are lack of power and expensive Vanderbilt commit, second round pick on talent.

 

Blake Walston, LHP, New Hanover HS, North Carolina: Insanely projectable at 6-4, 175 pounds; upper-80s fastball on most days, not hard to imagine him throwing 96 someday; also has hopeful curve and changeup; North Carolina State commitment and will need to go early to avoid school.

 

Davis Wendzel, 3B, Baylor University: You have to love the numbers (.385/.500/.647, 11 steals, eight homers, 27 walks); fans love his beard; scouts are fond of his feel for hitting, plate discipline, superior defense; lack of big raw power keeps him out of first round but will go soon after that.

 

Kendall Williams, RHP, IMG Academy: Low-90s heat may increase as he matures physically; already has plus curveball, solid slider and changeup, notably good mound aptitude; second rounder if not higher for a team that likes the projection but Vanderbilt commit adds monetary intrigue.

[Boxcar]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-mlb-draft-prospects-with-best-tools/

 

2019 MLB Draft Prospects With Best Tools

 

Where's the best command category?

[Slade]

John Sickels underrated draft prospects (The Athletic)

 

Davis Wendzel is a guy a love, I don't think it's likely he get gets to the second round.

 

The BA report.

 

Notes:

Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 185 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Red Sox '18 (37)

Scouting Report: A teammate of 2017 No. 1 pick Royce Lewis at California’s JSerra High, Wendzel quickly found his home at Baylor. The hirsute Wendzel boasts one of the fullest beards and longest mullets in college baseball, making him easily recognizable. Big 12 coaches have noticed his consistent ability to barrel baseballs, and he’s also proven to be one of the most reliable defenders in the conference. Scouts liked Wendzel last year as a draft-eligible sophomore, but he was clear about his intentions to return to Baylor for his junior year. That’s why he slid to the 37th round to the Red Sox. He’ll likely not make it out of the second round this year, as he’s a well-rounded third baseman with a lengthy track record of hitting. Wendzel has more hitting ability than power, although evaluators believe he has the potential to get to average power eventually. He projects as an above-average hitter despite a less than picture perfect swing. There’s some length to his front arm as he begins his swing by dropping his hands in the beginning of his load, then powers it through the zone. But his excellent pitch recognition and strike-zone awareness make it work. Defensively, he’s an above-average third baseman with an above-average, accurate arm who is very reliable—he’d made only one error all year as of mid-May. He’s sneakily athletic and has even slid over to shortstop from time to time for the Bears. Wendzel doesn’t have the power potential of some of the other top third baseman in the class, but scouts’ comfort level with his well-rounded game will ensure he goes high in the draft.

 

 

Edited May 23, 2019 by Slade

[BlueRocky]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-mlb-draft-prospects-chat-with-carlos-collazo-52319/

 

2019 MLB Draft Prospects Chat With Carlos Collazo (5/23/19)

 

BlueRocky (Canada):

 

How high is Corbin Carroll’s ceiling? We know about his speed and concerns about his size. But is he a plus defender at center field? Will he be able to hit for power? Thanks!

 

Carlos Collazo: If Carroll hits and taps into the solid-average power that some scouts think he has there’s no reason that he couldn’t be an All-Star type player at the next level. He is a plus defender in center field, and we recently had him on our best tools list as such, but really the only knock on his game is his size. He does everything else really well and I’m particularly impressed with his plate discipline and patience in the box. If he’s hitting for a high average, getting on base, playing a plus center field and taking advantage of the juiced major league balls… that’s a very valuable player. We’ll have to see what his offensive game looks like at the next level of course, but I have really come away impressed with Carroll every time I’ve gotten to see him in person.

 

BlueRocky (Canada):

 

Last year teams seem to have missed out on Nolan Gorman and Nico Hoerner. Are there any guys you think in the first round that are a bit underrated and should get more top 15 considerations?

 

Carlos Collazo: While I understand the history of players his age in the first round, I think sometimes people go too far criticizing Brett Baty for his age. He’s an extremely special bat and since you brought up Gorman, has been comped to him this spring, though they have two different styles of play and body types. I really like Jack Leiter as a pitching prospect, he does everything you want to see from a prep arm and might be the best pure pitcher in the class. If he was a few inches taller I’m sure we’d be talking about him in a different light—though he’s already talked about in the top group of prep arms. But every year you’re going to have players who pan out and do better than what was expected at draft time. Just the nature of the beast.

 

Matthew (Toronto):

 

Opinion seems pretty divided on where Baty might go. I've seen people discuss him going anywhere between 10th overall and 20th overall. Where do you see him falling to? Also, do you see teams curbing some of these traditional biases (age, height, etc.) anytime soon?

 

Carlos Collazo: Well, Nick Madrigal just got $6,411,400 in last year's draft, so maybe the bias against height is already going away, with some of the numbers smaller guys are putting up in the majors and how the ball is traveling there. As for age, some teams are more concerned about it than others. For some it almost sounds like it's a deal-breaker, whereas other teams will use age more as a tie-breaker with two comparable talents. We've talked about the bias against R-R first baseman around the office as well, so it'll be interesting to see where Vaughn and Spencer Torkelson (2020) end up going in the draft and how they do after the fact. That range you suggested for Baty sounds right, I think I've referenced it in previous mocks. And there's an outside shot he sneaks into the top 10 though I wouldn't say it's likely, necessarily.

 

 

Andrew (Alberta):

 

Do you have an idea of who the Jays have zoned in on for their first round pick this year? Carroll? Baty? Manoah? Rutledge? Or will it be someone further down the board like Groshans in 2018? Thanks

 

Carlos Collazo: I think there's a group of around 8-10 players they are really bearing down on. After the top 7-8 players get off the board this class really opens up a bit and Toronto is in a spot where a number of guys are all close, talent-wise. All of the names you mentioned are players they've been doing their homework on and could make sense at 11. I would add Bryson Stott and Zach Thompson to that list as well. Groshans paid off nicely in 2018 and they caught some people off guard (including me), but it might be tougher to go underslot and try and slide a guy this year with Arizona in between their picks with four of their own.

 

 

Ram (Vancouver):

 

Hi Carlos! Thanks for doing this. I haven't heard much about Jaxx Groshans despite him having a good season, hitting decently well at the cape code league, and playing a premium position at Catcher. What are the reports on him and where do you see him going? Any chance the Jays take him in the later rounds so they have both the Groshans brothers?

 

Carlos Collazo: I mentioned this on twitter the other day (@CarlosACollazo for the subtle plug) but I think teams are split on his ability to catch, though he has risen boards this spring that's to a great hitting season. See him more as a day two guy though. Maybe early day two to someone who likes his defense.

[BlueRocky]

Updated BA mock May 24, 2019

Draft is in 10 days, June 3rd.

1

Adley Rutschman

Oregon StateC

Notes:

We’re not going to spend too much time explaining this one, as Rutschman is still the top talent in the class and the overwhelming favorite to go with this pick. He’s already rocking black and orange pretty well.

 

2

Bobby Witt Jr.

Colleyville (Texas) Heritage HS SS

Notes:

Like the preceding pick, Witt Jr. is the favorite here at No. 2. The Royals like Witt enough that even if Rutschman somehow falls, they’d have to think long and hard about their choice.

 

3

CJ Abrams

Blessed Trinity (Roswell, Ga.) HS SS

Notes:

Abrams' name continues to be most common with the White Sox at No. 3, giving them back-to-back shortstops at the top of the draft, although Abrams has a much different profile than 2018 first-round pick Nick Madrigal.

 

4

J.J. Bleday

Vanderbilt OF

Notes:

Bleday could be in the mix a spot higher given how well he’s closed out the season, but the Marlins were rolling deep during Vanderbilt’s game against Auburn in the SEC Tournament, when he went 5-for-5 with a pair of doubles. It's worth noting that Marlins brass, again headlined by Derek Jeter, also watched Hunter Bishop on Thursday night.

 

5

Andrew Vaughn

California 1B

Notes:

It sounds like Detroit really likes Riley Greene, but in this situation it would be hard to pass up Vaughn. Like Greene, Vaughn is a bat-first prospect with weaker supplemental tools, but his bat is much more proven and possesses much more impact potential. Getting Vaughn here could give the organization another fast-moving, impact prospect to go along with 2018 No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize.

 

6

Riley Greene

Hagerty (Oviedo, Fla.) HS OF

Notes:

Most sources we talk to think that Greene is in the group of six players already mentioned that will be off the board first, in some order.

 

7

Nick Lodolo

Texas Christian LHP

Notes:

While the top six players have been established for some time now, Lodolo has finished the season strong—to the point that some include him with the top tier of players and don’t think there’s a chance he’s available when the Rangers are on the clock with the No. 8 pick. The Reds have been tied to Lodolo for a while now and would be happy to take him here, although if one of the six hitters in front happens to fall, they’d likely go that route instead. If Lodolo goes here, it will set a draft record. The latest the first pitcher off the board has been drafted is sixth overall, when the Blue Jays selected Ricky Romero with that pick in 2005.

 

8

Jackson Rutledge

San Jacinto (Texas) JC RHP

Notes:

Rumors continue to swirl that Texas is looking for an underslot deal here. Perhaps they can make that happen with Rutledge, who would become the highest drafted JuCo pitcher this century. The deal might not be too sweet though, as teams from this range through 14 sound heavily interested in the 6-foot-8 flamethrower. The success that Nate Pearson is having after being drafted out of JC of Central Florida in the first round in 2017 could give teams more confidence in Rutledge. They share some similarities as big, hard-throwing righthanders who went to Division I programs before transferring to junior colleges and seeing their draft stock explode.

 

9

Hunter Bishop

Arizona State OF

Notes:

This might be the ideal scenario for Atlanta, who has been tied to Hunter Bishop throughout the spring. The Braves are also in on Rutledge and have scouted prep outfielder Corbin Carroll heavily, though this is probably the high mark for Carroll at this point. In Bishop, the Braves would get one of the toolsiest college players in the class, and while his strikeout rate might be a concern, his power and upside make him worth any risk that comes with his less-than-ideal track record.

 

10

Bryson Stott

Nevada-Las Vegas SS

Notes:

Things start to open up more here, but the Giants sound interested in Stott, West Virginia righthander Alek Manoah and the top prep pitcher in the class, Matthew Allan.

 

11

Alek Manoah

West Virginia RHP

Notes:

It sounds like Toronto is targeting a number of college pitchers here, and in this scenario they get their pick of the group, sans Lodolo. Manoah is coming off of a big performance against Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship. It’s also possible that Toronto is another team looking for an underslot deal, similar to what they did a year ago with Jordan Groshans.

 

12

Zack Thompson

Kentucky LHP

Notes:

The 11 names that are off the board in front of New York are the ones we’ve been hearing most frequently in the 1-11 range. Some teams are lower on Stott than the Giants and Blue Jays, while others think Kentucky lefthander Zack Thompson needs to be in this group. With him available here, the Mets could get a pitcher comparable in talent to Manoah and Lodolo, though his medical history could make things more complicated. From here on out we’re in dicier territory and the board can open up in a big way.

 

13

Shea Langeliers

Baylor C

Notes:

Minnesota continues to get tied to college bats, and in this scenario Langeliers could be the best option. Clemson shortstop Logan Davidson and Texas Tech third baseman Josh Jung could make sense here, while the Twins also might like Elon righthander George Kirby, who’s starting to get pushed up boards.

 

14

George Kirby

Elon RHP

Notes:

It’s sounding more and more likely that Philadelphia doesn’t get a shot at Rutledge, although if he does make it to No. 14 he would likely be the pick. The Phillies are being linked heavily with Thompson and Kirby, and there have been some rumors that they are intrigued with Davidson as well.

 

15

Matthew Allan

Seminole HS, Sanford, Fla. RHP

Notes:

Allan could go off the board in the 10-15 range, and GM Billy Eppler was at one of Allan’s recent starts. Eppler has also seen North Carolina prep lefthander Blake Walston, but he would make more sense for their second-round pick.

 

16

Corbin Carroll

Lakeside HS, Seattle OF

Notes:

Another pivot point for the draft, the D-backs can push their pool money around if they want, forcing a player who starts to slide down to No. 16. That could be the case with Carroll, who plenty of teams in front of the D-backs like and have scouted heavily. Carroll fits Arizona’s preference for track record and a high quality hit tool.

 

17

Brett Baty

Lake Travis (Texas) High 3B

Notes:

It’s harder to pin down Baty than most players because some teams’ draft models will penalize his age and simply have him off boards, but he makes sense throughout the teens. The Nationals might have wanted a pitcher who’s already off the board, and they could go after a prep arm or one of the college bats as well.

 

18

Brennan Malone

IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla. RHP

Notes:

Malone checks some of the boxes that the Pirates have previously gone after with prep arms early in the draft, and this is the range that his name, and Quinn Priester’s, start to come up more. Logan Davidson could still be a possibility here.

 

19

Logan Davidson

Clemson SS

Notes:

We’re hearing college hitters with St. Louis lately, so Davidson, North Carolina’s Michael Busch, Jung and fellow shortstop Will Wilson could all make sense with this pick. The Cardinals also sound like one of the teams interested in projectable Puerto Rican shortstop Matthew Lugo. They had evaluators go see him late in the process, but that seems a bit rich at No. 19.

 

20

Josh Jung

Texas Tech 3B

Notes:

A run on the second-tier college bats could start in the late teens and early 20s.

 

21

Quinn Priester

Cary-Grove HS, Cary, Ill. RHP

Notes:

After having gone the college bat route at No. 9, the Braves could add yet another high-upside arm to their system in Priester or Malone, if he falls. They should still be in on the college bats going around this range as well.

 

22

Michael Busch

North Carolina 1B/OF

Notes:

After targeting pitching last year, there’s no obvious arm in this scenario for the Rays to go after here, unless they are infatuated with prep pitchers J.J. Goss or Daniel Espino. Both of those names fit here on talent, but they have been mentioned closer toward the supplemental round.

 

23

Kameron Misner

Missouri OF

Notes:

Misner’s tools are comparable to Hunter Bishop’s, but his performance has been lacking this spring with a passive approach that's led to too many strikeouts. Sources believe a team in the 20s will stop Misner's fall, however, simply based on his tools and upside. We'll continue to sing the Rockies' development team's praises here and say there are as well-equipped as any to figure him out.

 

24

Will Wilson

NC State SS

Notes:

We’ve mocked Busch here plenty of times and think Cleveland still likes his track record and feel to hit if he gets here. Will Wilson has some of those same traits and has more defensive value as a middle infielder.

 

25

Gunnar Henderson

Morgan Academy, Selma, Ala. SS

Notes:

We’re sticking with last mock’s pick of Henderson here.

 

26

Anthony Volpe

Delbarton HS, Morristown, N.J.SS

Notes:

Volpe’s name has been mentioned more and more in the back of the first round. He checks a lot of the same boxes that Carroll does with the No. 16 pick in the sense that he has a polished hit tool and solid track record of hitting. And maybe we can't help ourselves from giving Arizona another prep shortstop with this pick.

 

27

Kody Hoese

Tulane 3B

Notes:

The Cubs might covet a number of the hitters who are already off the board, but Hoese is among the nation’s leaders in home runs and sounds like a lock to go somewhere in the back of the first or the supplemental first round. Campbell righthander Seth Johnson’s name begins to get mentioned around here.

 

28

Keoni Cavaco

Eastlake HS, Chula Vista, Calif. 3B

Notes:

It’s tough to get much specific information on the Brewers this deep into the first round, but Cavaco’s name has been thrown around a lot in the first round and the Brewers might covet his upside and toolset. With the second-lowest bonus pool in the class an underslot deal here could make sense. Perhaps a prep pitcher like Kendall Williams out of Florida or Bryce Osmond out of Oklahoma?

 

29

Greg Jones

SS UNC-Wilmington

Notes:

We’re hearing a lot of noise about Jones to the Athletics at this point, and this continues their recent strategy of going for high-upside players in the first round.

 

30

Tyler Callihan

Providence HS, Jacksonville 3B

Notes:

We’ve mocked Callihan to the Yankees before, and it still makes some sense today based on how strong he finished the season. Rece Hinds could make some sense as well as Cavaco if he lasts this long.

 

31

Blake Walston

New Hanover HS, Wilmington, N.C. LHP

Notes:

Walston could realistically go toward the end of the first round or in the supplemental first round given the late-season attention he garnered.

 

32

Daniel Espino

Georgia Premier Academy, Statesboro, Ga. RHP

Notes:

There are few teams who develop pitchers like the Astros, so perhaps they are the team best-suited to harness Espino’s elite pure stuff.

 

33

Seth Johnson

Campbell RHP

Notes:

Johnson doesn’t have the longest track record of performance and is new to the mound, but he’s got loads of upside and athleticism.

 

34

Braden Shewmake

Texas A&M SS

Notes:

Given the number of picks the D-backs have in the first round, it would be surprising to see them not take a college bat. Shewmake has always hit and done it against good competition. Others that could make sense here are UCLA’s duo of Chase Strumpf or Michael Toglia or Baylors’ Davis Wendzel, perhaps? It’s the last pick of the first round, so don’t judge us if it’s wrong.

 

 

[Spanky__99]

Updated BA mock May 24, 2019

Draft is in 10 days, June 3rd.

 

Pipeline did their 2nd one last night, with us selecting Corbin Carroll.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mlb-mock-draft-on-may-23

 

11. Blue Jays: Corbin Carroll, OF, Lakeside HS (Seattle)

 

Carroll, one of the better high school hitters in this class who also has plus speed, has not had his name mentioned up this high previously. Toronto might be hoping one of the top 10 above gets to it, but if not, it could be open season and there are those in the scouting department who love Carroll’s bat and athleticism.

[BlueRocky]

Couple rumor points:

 

- D-Backs might be using their large pool money to entice prep guys like Corbin Caroll into signability issues, which might make teams pass on him and he could slide to 16 for a steal, similar to Matthew Liberatore last year.

- Texas at no. 8 rumored to be going underslot deals, someone might be bumped to 11 in this scenario that might not have been there otherwise.

- Toronto has been heavily scouting guys like Caroll but seems to also lean towards college pitching, looking at guys like Manoah and Thompson. Not sure if Kirby would be also considered but I would as that guy is a strikeout machine.

- Rutledge, also a Toronto target, getting some helium because of success from Nate Pearson is interesting. No. 8 is the highest I’ve seen him mocked.

[jmomcc]

Talking myself into Carroll hard and I’ve literally never seen more than a 5 min video lol.

 

He sounds perfect though. Hit tool is where it is at with the juiced ball.

[BlueRocky]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/elite-bats-elevate-2019-mlb-draft-class-belies-lack-of-depth/

 

Elite Bats Elevate 2019 MLB Draft Class, Belies Lack Of Depth

 

By Carlos Collazo on May 23, 2019

 

Everyone agrees: Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman is the top player in the 2019 draft. Multiple scouts told Baseball America that Rutschman is the most talented No. 1 draft prospect since Bryce Harper in 2010.

 

Rutschman is a complete player who is a plus hitter with plus power, plus arm strength, plus receiving ability and outstanding makeup and leadership attributes that teams covet in catchers.

 

He should make the Orioles’ decision at No. 1 easy.

 

"Perennial all-star, man,” one crosschecker said of Rutschman. "He’s the best combination of tools and makeup I’ve ever scouted. He makes the toughest position look the easiest. His natural feel to nurture a staff is unbelievable. His aptitude is an 80 (on the 20-80 scouting scale). Makeup is an 80.”

 

Texas high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has been famous in scouting circles for years thanks to a robust arsenal of plus or better tools, an innate feel for the game and major league bloodlines.

 

Extending the line of impact hitters is California’s Andrew Vaughn. His feel to hit and hit with power should help him transcend an atypical profile as a 6-foot, righthanded-hitting first baseman at a position where the average big leaguer is 6-foot-3 and often bats lefthanded or switch-hits.

 

While scouts endorse the talent at the top of the 2019 draft board, the overall depth of the class is down, providing a stark contrast to the deep 2018 class.

 

The shallow nature of the draft is most obvious in a lack of college pitchers. "Absolutely one of the worst college pitching classes that I’ve seen,” one scout said.

 

Even mid-rotation arms are tougher to find than usual. Many pitchers at the top of the class either lack prototype first-round stuff (Nick Lodolo, George Kirby) or have significant reliever risk (Alek Manoah, Jackson Rutledge) or injury concerns (Zack Thompson, Carter Stewart) or simply lack track record (Seth Johnson).

 

"It’s a good situation for these hitters that there is no pitching,” one AL scouting director said. "There’s not a lot of competition in the top five. You don’t have four Friday night guys you compare the hitters to.”

 

Draft history suggests that teams value college pitchers too much to completely ignore the demographic, which could artificially push a few arms up the board. The fewest number of college pitchers drafted in the first round in the last 20 years is six, which happened in 2015, when Dillon Tate, Tyler Jay and Carson Fulmer went fourth, sixth and eighth overall.

 

History also suggests that one team will reach for a pitcher because the first pitcher typically comes off the board in the top five picks. The only exception to that rule occurred in 2005, when the Blue Jays drafted Cal State Fullerton lefty Ricky Romero No. 6 overall.

 

There’s a lot of talk about the lack of college pitching talent in this draft, but there’s also speculation that it’s top heavy and lack depth. This might not be a great year to go fishing for an underslot value.

 

This might be one of those drafts with a consensus no. 1, a strong early first round, then talent sharply falls off. Seems wiser to just take best talent available, highschool or college, and address our pitching elsewhere.

 

Overall it’s gauged as average to below average draft strength after the top of the crop. Next year seems like a strong draft and have some elite pitching at the top.

Edited May 25, 2019 by BlueRocky

[metafour]

This might be one of those drafts with a consensus no. 1, a strong early first round, then talent sharply falls off. Seems wiser to just take best talent available, highschool or college, and address our pitching elsewhere.

 

Overall it’s gauged as average to below average draft strength after the top of the crop.

 

Actually, the idea of "strong" and "weak" MLB drafts has more or less proven to be a false narrative because apart from being able to judge the relative strength of the first 20 or so picks, everything after that generally tends to even out on a year to year basis due to the unpredictable nature of evaluating baseball prospects. This supposedly terrible college pitching class will inevitably produce at least one pitcher taken after the first two rounds who ends up being an above average MLB regular. It happens every year. It has been shown that they can do a fairly good job of judging the overall strength of the TOP prospects on a year to year basis, but even something like the last pick in the first round shows fairly consistent success rates regardless of how "strong" or "weak" the draft is perceived to be.

[Laika]

Actually, the idea of "strong" and "weak" MLB drafts has more or less proven to be a false narrative because apart from being able to judge the relative strength of the first 20 or so picks, everything after that generally tends to even out on a year to year basis due to the unpredictable nature of evaluating baseball prospects. This supposedly terrible college pitching class will inevitably produce at least one pitcher taken after the first two rounds who ends up being an above average MLB regular. It happens every year. It has been shown that they can do a fairly good job of judging the overall strength of the TOP prospects on a year to year basis, but even something like the last pick in the first round shows fairly consistent success rates regardless of how "strong" or "weak" the draft is perceived to be.

 

Strong agree here.

 

The strength of the top end of a draft can also change dramatically in retrospect with one or two big flops.

 

2014 is really a draft to look back on. Interesting how the best players ended up being 7, 8, 10, 13, and 25.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2014&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

[Boxcar]

Just from a casual perspective, it seems to me that Baty and Carroll both seem like they are dropping because of stupid scouty stuff that makes no sense and are obvious market inefficiencies; Carroll for his height and Baty for his age. Obviously I'm not proficient in this area but if these are the only knocks on these two guys, I expect them to have two of the better careers going forward where I'd probably peg a guy like Bobby Witt to bust.