Donaldson Aug 31 Trade Thread

[Spanky__99]

Recency bias. JD didn't have a single trip to the DL in 4 straight seasons leading up to last year (2013-2016). He then made his first trip last season missing over 40 games and it lead the casuals to believe he was an injury risk... based on one injury. Now, it just so happens he got hurt again this season leading to all these "I told you so's" but to say that the front office or anyone else should have seen this coming based on one DL trip in 5 seasons is just asinine

 

Right, it makes no f***ing sense to me.

[Jimcanuck]

"This helped him miss only seven games in 2016 despite admittedly being hurt the entire year with a calf injury."

 

Sportsnet article from April 2017.

 

You guys haven't been paying attention. Donaldson has had issues with the calf for 3 years now. There was definitely an injury risk in the 2017 offseason, and the Jays had plenty of medical reports. It may be the reported low/lack of offers for JD is due to these same medical reports.

[Bobthe4th]

Why do people keep insisting on saying JD was an injury risk coming into this season? Age, I guess... but there was no history aside from his calf injury on his other leg last year? He was nowhere near a risk as the latter two, or any pitcher for that matter.

 

To clarify - no one is saying JD was always going to turn into Tulo. But he has had issues with his calves for years, and as you say he was no longer a young athlete.

[Bobthe4th]

"This helped him miss only seven games in 2016 despite admittedly being hurt the entire year with a calf injury."

 

Sportsnet article from April 2017.

 

You guys haven't been paying attention. Donaldson has had issues with the calf for 3 years now. There was definitely an injury risk in the 2017 offseason, and the Jays had plenty of medical reports. It may be the reported low/lack of offers for JD is due to these same medical reports.

 

I remember reading an article that said his calves were defective in some way (abnormally large?) at least 2 or 3 years ago after he had pulled up running the bases.

[Laika]

To be fair to everybody - what to do during the 2018 offseason would have been a very tough decision for the front office. It was probably close to a coin flip (retool vs. make modest investments to compete) and either avenue would have been justifiable.

 

The team was tied to a lot of veteran players who really would not have had much trade value. A rebuild would have been pretty awkward--who does the team even shop for good value last offseason aside from JD? Osuna, Stroman, Sanchez all had a bunch of years of control so they wouldn't have been obvious trade candidates in context. Happ probably had much less value last offseason than he was just dealt for at the deadline. I don't think Pearce would have had any value in the offseason. Same for Smoak - almost no trade value in that market. Others have said that JD might have had much less trade value than people are assuming, because the market was overflowing with 3B and other corner bat types.

 

The team would have projected for a win total somewhere between 81 and 86 (I am guessing) so if a couple of hypothetical things panned out competing was not out of the question.

[John_Havok]

To be fair to everybody - what to do during the 2018 offseason would have been a very tough decision for the front office. It was probably close to a coin flip (retool vs. make modest investments to compete) and either avenue would have been justifiable.

 

The team was tied to a lot of veteran players who really would not have had much trade value. A rebuild would have been pretty awkward--who does the team even shop for good value last offseason aside from JD? Osuna, Stroman, Sanchez all had a bunch of years of control so they wouldn't have been obvious trade candidates in context. Happ probably had much less value last offseason than he was just dealt for at the deadline. I don't think Pearce would have had any value in the offseason. Same for Smoak - almost no trade value in that market. Others have said that JD might have had much less trade value than people are assuming, because the market was overflowing with 3B and other corner bat types.

 

The team would have projected for a win total somewhere between 81 and 86 (I am guessing) so if a couple of hypothetical things panned out competing was not out of the question.

 

Shut up already. Revisionist history is easier to get mad at.

 

-signed, casual jays fans

[Jimcanuck]

To be fair to everybody - what to do during the 2018 offseason would have been a very tough decision for the front office. It was probably close to a coin flip (retool vs. make modest investments to compete) and either avenue would have been justifiable.

 

The team was tied to a lot of veteran players who really would not have had much trade value. A rebuild would have been pretty awkward--who does the team even shop for good value last offseason aside from JD? Osuna, Stroman, Sanchez all had a bunch of years of control so they wouldn't have been obvious trade candidates in context. Happ probably had much less value last offseason than he was just dealt for at the deadline. I don't think Pearce would have had any value in the offseason. Same for Smoak - almost no trade value in that market. Others have said that JD might have had much less trade value than people are assuming, because the market was overflowing with 3B and other corner bat types.

 

The team would have projected for a win total somewhere between 81 and 86 (I am guessing) so if a couple of hypothetical things panned out competing was not out of the question.

 

This is fair. In which case it simply becomes an assessment of the Jays 2018 chances and whether the risk of holding onto Donaldson is worth that chance.

 

The Donaldson injury risk, using a simple L-M-H scale, was M at least. The guy played through a calf injury the entire 2016 season, played injured again the first part of 2017, then missed a big chunk of 2017 games due to the same calf issue. Given that history I would grade his 2018 injury risk as somewhere between M and H.

 

And you all know what I thought of the Jays 2018 chances, so of course I was saying trade the guy the entire 2017 offseason.

[Spanky__99]

This is fair. In which case it simply becomes an assessment of the Jays 2018 chances and whether the risk of holding onto Donaldson is worth that chance.

 

The Donaldson injury risk, using a simple L-M-H scale, was M at least. The guy played through a calf injury the entire 2016 season, played injured again the first part of 2017, then missed a big chunk of 2017 games due to the same calf issue. Given that history I would grade his 2018 injury risk as somewhere between M and H.

 

And you all know what I thought of the Jays 2018 chances, so of course I was saying trade the guy the entire 2017 offseason.

 

Wrong leg, Jim.

 

Actually, why do I bother, I'm dumn...

[Jimcanuck]

Wrong leg, Jim.

 

Actually, why do I bother, I'm dumn...

 

Left calf, right calf, who cares. The guy has chronic calf issues.

 

Just admit it, you were wrong.

[Boxcar]

Wrong leg, Jim.

 

Actually, why do I bother, I'm dumn...

 

I ask myself that every day.

[Spanky__99]

Left calf, right calf, who cares. The guy has chronic calf issues.

 

Just admit it, you were wrong.

 

No, no I wasn't. He still has a career moving forward you dolt. His injuries were unfortunate, nothing more or less. If you want to call him a risk now, I concur. Not last season, it was the 1st time he missed any significant MLB time, holy f***. Is it hard? You throw so much s*** at a wall, something might stick, you remind me of ju1ced and the resident psychopath. Great company.

Edited September 6, 2018 by Spanky99

[Jimcanuck]

No, no I wasn't. He still has a career moving forward you dolt. His injuries were unfortunate, nothing more or less. If you want to call him a risk now, I concur. Not last season, it was the 1st time he missed any significant MLB time, holy f***.

 

Well i called him an injury risk last off season. We know who turned out right, and who was wrong.

[Spanky__99]

Well i called him an injury risk last off season. We know who turned out right, and who was wrong.

 

You're an idiot.

[Krylian]

You're an idiot.

 

That may be so, but Donaldson did get hurt.

[Spanky__99]

That may be so, but Donaldson did get hurt.

 

And?

[Boxcar]

That may be so, but Donaldson did get hurt.

 

The equivalent of "I won the lottery, so I knew what the right numbers were."

[Jimcanuck]

The equivalent of "I won the lottery, so I knew what the right numbers were."

 

Except I didn't make a prediction. Last offseason I was saying JD should be traded in part due to the injury risk. And the loss of trade value if the risk is realized.

 

Which is exactly what happened.

[Krylian]

The equivalent of "I won the lottery, so I knew what the right numbers were."

 

Yup. Even a blind squirrel...But even so, he was still right. Now tell him to predict something bold for 2019.

[Jimcanuck]

Yup. Even a blind squirrel...But even so, he was still right. Now tell him to predict something bold for 2019.

 

Devo Travis bounces back, delivers at least 2 WAR.

[5ToolPhenom]

You answered your own questing when you posted "why take the risk?"

 

There's far more risk in signing more big money FAs than there is in doing what they did, given they already had a core of high piad aging veterans. The Jays will never be the team that signs the Harpers, Stanton or Machados in free agency when Rogers owns them.

 

You say they should have been able to read the tea leaves better, but they did absolutely nothing to hurt the longterm outlook, and arguably made that outlook even better with the myriad of depth acquisitions, low risk vets and then dumping everyone they could dump aside from Estrada and Morales. You don't need the #1 pick to rebuild, baseball drafts are so much of a crap shoot it's far more likely than other sports you can get a guy anywhere from 1-10 that can be a cornerstone. Plus with actual attention to international talent, there's not as much need to tank outright IMO.

 

To me, that's reading the tea leaves right. They took on zero contract risk, improved the long term outlook, and have financial flexibility to add some low risk high reward guys again in 2019.

 

One thing that people need to understand is, there is no such thing as satisfying the casual fan base. To a casual fan, you need to spend like crazy every year or you're not trying, therefore they mad. Spend like crazy and win for a couple seasons, then realize they're up to their necks in anchors and have no flexibility it means you didn't spend wisely enough and they mad. Tank and they mad because who wants to watch a bad team for 3 years? The casual fan base doesn't understand how many levels of pro ball there are below the majors and hve virtually no clue about what is needed to build a sustainable team.

 

When I said "why take the risk" I was referring to waiting until the trade deadline as opposed to trading the vets before the beginning of the season when we would've got greater value.

 

I understand what you're saying, but they could have acquired a haul if they traded Donaldson in the off-season and they could've sped up the time-frame of the rebuild by starting at the beginning of this season as opposed to wasting at-bats on players who have no future here. Doing the least they could in the off-season and then hoping for the most isn't a smart strategy.

 

I'm just not sure I buy the narrative that they were forced to cater to the casual fans. If that were the case we would've seen Vladdy up this year.

[Spanky__99]

[Deadpool]

When I said "why take the risk" I was referring to waiting until the trade deadline as opposed to trading the vets before the beginning of the season when we would've got greater value.

 

Really though? That's not always the case. I'm guessing we got more for Happ at the deadline than we would have gotten for him last offseason...

 

Most teams don't know their exact needs until the season is underway, so you're not always going to get the best deals in the offseasn.

[Ray]

[Pendleton]

 

My soul hurts

[Jimcanuck]

 

damn!

[mtljaysfan]

 

That really hurts if it's true.

[Spanky__99]

 

Oh my...

[Krylian]

 

That could never happen. Shatkins is the almighty Lord.

[Jimcanuck]

That could never happen. Shatkins is the almighty Lord.

 

2nd player is probably better than the one guy we ended up getting from Cleve

 

They gambled and lost

[Spanky__99]

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