Donaldson Aug 31 Trade Thread

[Krylian]

TBF those two statements are mutually exclusive. Shapiro’s history and attitude suggests he is risk averse, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

 

Not necessarily good either.

 

It's like the difference between playing to win and playing not to lose. You need a little risk in your life. I'm glad my wife will take some risk in the bedroom. I play to win.

[Boxcar]

Wow! You figure he gets that much AAV and term, considering his injuries?I was thinking he'd be lucky to get a one year prove it deal for around $15 million.

 

Donaldson has a pretty recent history of being a top 5 player in the game. A team could look at a contract like that as a pretty worthy gamble. I don't think he'll sign a 1 year deal.

[Todd Van Anus]

I'm glad my wife will take some risk in the bedroom. I play to win.

We need details here.

[Boxcar]

Lol

 

What are you laughing at?

[saskjayfan]

Donaldson has a pretty recent history of being a top 5 player in the game. A team could look at a contract like that as a pretty worthy gamble. I don't think he'll sign a 1 year deal.

 

so you're saying we should have kept him and offered him the QO.

[Jimcanuck]

TBF those two statements are mutually exclusive. Shapiro’s history and attitude suggests he is risk averse, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

 

His history is with a team with a relatively low budget though.

[Todd Van Anus]

Donaldson has a pretty recent history of being a top 5 player in the game. A team could look at a contract like that as a pretty worthy gamble. I don't think he'll sign a 1 year deal.

 

It'll be one of the more interesting offseason stories to watch, that's for sure.

[Boxcar]

so you're saying we should have kept him and offered him the QO.

 

Having the information I have, yes. I don't know what information the FO has. I discussed this on the podcast, and I think we all agreed that QO is obviously the way to go assuming we know everything about the situation. We do not, however.

 

I also think people are massively overrating the usefulness of a comp pick. They rarely turn into a useful player.

[TheHurl]

so you're saying we should have kept him and offered him the QO.

 

He is saying that they didn't value the pick higher than the $1m and the player they intend to get. Not to mention the additional time and PR effort

[Boxcar]

He is saying that they didn't value the pick higher than the $1m and the player they intend to get. Not to mention the additional time and PR effort

 

Also the risk that JD would accept the QO if they think his calves have turned him into Tulo Jr.

[Bobthe4th]

Not necessarily good either.

 

It's like the difference between playing to win and playing not to lose. You need a little risk in your life.

 

His history is with a team with a relatively low budget though.

 

Yeah, the real test will be in 2 or 3 years (hopefully!) when we have a very good young team. Will this front office trade prospect capital, and/or pay to secure top free agents?

[Krylian]

We need details here.

 

Based on your name, you like to take risks too.

[Krylian]

Having the information I have, yes. I don't know what information the FO has. I discussed this on the podcast, and I think we all agreed that QO is obviously the way to go assuming we know everything about the situation. We do not, however.

 

I also think people are massively overrating the usefulness of a comp pick. They rarely turn into a useful player.

 

That may be true, but you still take the lottery ticket when you can get it. This is that risk conversation again. Is it worth taking the risk that he'll turn down the QO.

 

Again, depending on what the criteria is for this PTBNL, we may end up getting a better piece than we could have in the 70-80 range anyway.

[admin]

I'm gonna guess 3/75 and he doesn't sign until near ST.

 

I'd probably take a guess around there too. But I guess all depends on what he does here on out. If he's s*** and misses more time then I wouldn't be surprised if he took a one year deal. If he destroys it I wouldn't be surprised to see 5+ years.

[glory]

QO only means something if he declines it. If he accepts and they feel his injuries might be recurring then you can’t qualify him again and who knows what his value will be next trade deadline. All that for close to $20m in what should be a sub .500 season.

 

As long as the ptbnl is equivalent to a 2nd round lotto ticket then it’s probably for the better.

[Boxcar]

That may be true, but you still take the lottery ticket when you can get it. This is that risk conversation again. Is it worth taking the risk that he'll turn down the QO.

 

Again, depending on what the criteria is for this PTBNL, we may end up getting a better piece than we could have in the 70-80 range anyway.

 

I don't think people are really appreciating how little value there is in a 40-50 pick; you're getting an org guy 90+% of the time. Yeah, the return for Donaldson might not be great but the odds that we'll get something worse than that comp pick are so remote.

 

Like, what if JD plays the rest of the season and lands us T-Mac? Certainly in the realm of possibility given the known stipulations of the PTBNL around Donaldson's health. Half a season of Chapman got Torres, so I don't think we should necessarily give up hope that we get something good if Donaldson plays the rest of the season.

[Agk47]

I don't know why Josh would have sour grapes. He had an injury that should have taken 5 or 6 weeks to heal. The team rushed him back so they could trade him and he re-injured himself and it cost him 3 months. Sure it's his walk year, but really what did he lose?

 

What did he lose, everything you just said.

 

Easily 50 million in guaranteed dollars.

 

Josh is a huge d bag, but our management did him dirty in a most incompetent way.

[Agk47]

If the return is less than the draft pick compensation the Jays would have gotten for Donaldson, I'm going to be pretty salty.

 

Yup my first thought.

 

Look back at the last two Cleveland drafts, one of their 2nd 3rd or 4th rd picks that the jays value as equal to or slightly better than roughly the 35th pick in next years draft is probably coming back our way.

[jaysblue]

Any predictions on what kind of contract he might get this offseason? Probably depends how he performs in the next couple months.

 

1-year-contract worth $20-25 M to reestablish his value. He's going to be 33 next season. Similar to what Adrian Beltre did when he signed a one-year contract with Boston and then went out and signed a big deal with the Rangers the following offseason.

 

Only way he gets a 2-3 year deal is if he tears the cover off the ball over the final two months and carries Cleveland's lineup in the postseason. Otherwise, he's only getting a one-year deal with a club/player option. I think some posters are overvaluing his value on the open market right now.

[jaysblue]

Donaldson has a pretty recent history of being a top 5 player in the game. A team could look at a contract like that as a pretty worthy gamble. I don't think he'll sign a 1 year deal.

 

It's a new market for free agents. I think 3-4 years ago, he would easily get that. Now with the way the market has gone in the last 2-3 years, not so much.

 

I think if he goes and proves he's healthy in September and October and puts up numbers showing a resemblance of when he was an MVP, then I think you could see a team take that gamble perhaps like the Cardinals or Cleveland. I don't think you'll have teams lining up to sign him for 2-3 years though. I think majority of his offers will only be for 1 year. He'll follow the same route Adrian Beltre took.

[Boxcar]

1-year-contract worth $20-25 M to reestablish his value. He's going to be 33 next season. Similar to what Adrian Beltre did when he signed a one-year contract with Boston and then went out and signed a big deal with the Rangers the following offseason.

 

Only way he gets a 2-3 year deal is if he tears the cover off the ball over the final two months and carries Cleveland's lineup in the postseason. Otherwise, he's only getting a one-year deal with a club/player option. I think some posters are overvaluing his value on the open market right now.

 

You might be right, but there's been a few times we thought a guy would sign a 1 year deal for those reasons but still got a multi-year one. I think the beltre deal is a little different as he wasn't quite the impact player Donaldson was prior to his time in Boston.

[glory]

I don't think people are really appreciating how little value there is in a 40-50 pick; you're getting an org guy 90+% of the time. Yeah, the return for Donaldson might not be great but the odds that we'll get something worse than that comp pick are so remote.

 

Like, what if JD plays the rest of the season and lands us T-Mac? Certainly in the realm of possibility given the known stipulations of the PTBNL around Donaldson's health. Half a season of Chapman got Torres, so I don't think we should necessarily give up hope that we get something good if Donaldson plays the rest of the season.

 

Comp pick for JD would have been in the 70’s, which makes your point even stronger. Giving him the QO for a chance at a pick in the 70’s sounds absurd, especially if they didn’t want him to accept it.

[jaysblue]

I'd probably take a guess around there too. But I guess all depends on what he does here on out. If he's s*** and misses more time then I wouldn't be surprised if he took a one year deal. If he destroys it I wouldn't be surprised to see 5+ years.

 

No way he's getting a deal of 5+ years after this season lol. I doubt he was going to get more than 5 years even if he became a FA after 2017. Many teams these days are taking a cautious and rational approach when it comes to FA's above 30.

 

If he was healthy, I could have seen him get 5 years/$125 million this offseason from a veteran team with a window open now. Even if he destroys it for a month or two now, I think the most is a 2-3 year worth $75 million and even that I think would be tough.

[Carlos Danger]

The idea that Shatkins is risk averse is dumb. No GM is going to take significant risks in a rebuild phase.

 

Most of Cleveland's knowledgeable fan base believe they don't think Shapiro makes/signs off on the Miller deal that ultimately was the key trade that brought them one game from winning the World Series.

 

I concur.

[gruber92]

What are you laughing at?

 

Donaldson will not get a three year term, let alone at 25mil per. Imo, he's looking at something like 1/20 with a team option with an outside shot at getting 2/40 guaranteed. Nothing more.

[Boxcar]

Donaldson will not get a three year term, let alone at 25mil per. Imo, he's looking at something like 1/20 with a team option with an outside shot at getting 2/40 guaranteed. Nothing more.

 

Ok, I accept that possibility. Doesn't mean you're right and especially given your track record, there's no reason to laugh at a different opinion.

[gruber92]

Ok, I accept that possibility. Doesn't mean you're right and especially given your track record, there's no reason to laugh at a different opinion.

 

 

Wow, laughing at other's opinions? You're actually saying this? C'mon man..

[TheHurl]

Jays are sending $2.7 to the Indians. Wonder what the significance of that number is. Maple Boner alert

[Spanky__99]

I wonder if the Jays can get a return of value near the 75-80 pick they'd receive when JD turns down the QO, sure doesn't sound like he wants to stick around? Doesn't sound like the Jays want to risk giving up 18 million either with a roster crunch left behind. They could always trade him tonight for a PTBNL with stipulations depending on how he performs the rest of the way and into the post-season, meh... who knows.

 

Called it., sorta...

[Boxcar]

 

 

 

Wow, laughing at other's opinions? You're actually saying this? C'mon man..

 

I don't laugh at reasonable opinions. I laugh at half baked theories based on no evidence. Say, Kevin Pillar becoming a perennial all star based on one ST game. I'd never say anything crazy like that and then double down on every opportunity.