Happ traded to NYY for Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney

[Pendleton]

Many in this thread were clamouring to have Giovanny Gallegos to be a big part of this trade and the Yankees traded him to St. Louis for very little. We surely could have had him if we were at all interested. I'm curious to see how he does with the Cards.

 

There was one person suggesting Gallegos as a third piece but good try.

 

Also since you brought up the proposal, remember how you said it wasn't nearly enough, but it turned out to be much more than the actual return? Good times

Edited July 29, 2018 by Pendleton

[Grant77]

There was one person suggesting Gallegos as a third piece but good try.

 

Also since you brought up the proposal, remember how you said it wasn't nearly enough, but it turned out to be much more than the actual return? Good times

 

No, I don't remember that. McKinney is a more valuable piece than Contreras in my opinion. If we wanted a high upside arm with zero track record that is 5+ years away, we could have simply traded away an excess reliever to St. Louis for the bonus money.

[Boxcar]

No, I don't remember that. McKinney is a more valuable piece than Contreras in my opinion. If we wanted a high upside arm with zero track record that is 5+ years away, we could have simply traded away an excess reliever to St. Louis for the bonus money.

 

I mean, I can see the argument in that he's much more of a known quantity, but he kinda sucks. He's a first round pick and yet 3 orgs have already given up on him. Seems like a positive outcome for McKinney is a back up OF that we could get on FA for a million bucks or so. In that case, I'd much rather gamble on talent when I wouldn't be missing out on much with the alternative.

[Pendleton]

No, I don't remember that. McKinney is a more valuable piece than Contreras in my opinion. If we wanted a high upside arm with zero track record that is 5+ years away, we could have simply traded away an excess reliever to St. Louis for the bonus money.

 

Given that McKinney really isn't very interesting, we would have been way better off with a young arm high upside arm + interesting reliever combination if the opportunity was there. LF prospect without a carrying tool who has been traded multiple times and tumbling down to the back end of their prospect ranking vs SP prospect with high upside thought to be one of their bigger risers - not even close for me.

[Grant77]

I mean, I can see the argument in that he's much more of a known quantity, but he kinda sucks. He's a first round pick and yet 3 orgs have already given up on him. Seems like a positive outcome for McKinney is a back up OF that we could get on FA for a million bucks or so. In that case, I'd much rather gamble on talent when I wouldn't be missing out on much with the alternative.

 

I still see starter upside in McKinney. The power is for real and he's still putting up a 120 wRC+ in AAA with an unusually low BABIP. He looks to me like a Justin Upton type who can hit 30 bombs with a decent average and make modest contributions on defense.

 

As for the low A lottery tickets, I just don't place a ton of value on them unless they are can't miss top 100 guys with off the charts stuff, which Contreras certainly is not. You're talking a good 5 years and maybe more before we see any contributions, not to mention the fact that most of these guys flame out before even reaching AAA. I get the appeal that he could be a 3+ WAR starter someday, but there's just so much risk.

[Pendleton]

I still see starter upside in McKinney. The power is for real and he's still putting up a 120 wRC+ in AAA with an unusually low BABIP. He looks to me like a Justin Upton type who can hit 30 bombs with a decent average and make modest contributions on defense.

 

As for the low A lottery tickets, I just don't place a ton of value on them unless they are can't miss top 100 guys with off the charts stuff, which Contreras certainly is not. You're talking a good 5 years and maybe more before we see any contributions, not to mention the fact that most of these guys flame out before even reaching AAA. I get the appeal that he could be a 3+ WAR starter someday, but there's just so much risk.

 

Ah, I see your going to stick to your side using the argument of your insanely high projection of McKinney that doesn't line up with any current scouting opinions, got it.

[Boxcar]

I still see starter upside in McKinney. The power is for real and he's still putting up a 120 wRC+ in AAA with an unusually low BABIP. He looks to me like a Justin Upton type who can hit 30 bombs with a decent average and make modest contributions on defense.

 

As for the low A lottery tickets, I just don't place a ton of value on them unless they are can't miss top 100 guys with off the charts stuff, which Contreras certainly is not. You're talking a good 5 years and maybe more before we see any contributions, not to mention the fact that most of these guys flame out before even reaching AAA. I get the appeal that he could be a 3+ WAR starter someday, but there's just so much risk.

 

I don't disagree with that in principle if you see McKinney in the way you do. I generally agree that the lottery ticket types are overrated, I'd almost always rather have a more sure thing, especially given the timeline the Jays have for getting back to a competitive window.

[Boxcar]

Ah, I see your going to stick to your side using the argument of your insanely high projection of McKinney that doesn't line up with any current scouting opinions, got it.

 

Scouts are wrong all the time. It's just Grant's opinion.

 

I mean, given his opinion at least his argument makes sense.

[Pendleton]

Scouts are wrong all the time. It's just Grant's opinion.

 

I mean, given his opinion at least his argument makes sense.

 

Yes I understand that and don't take the word of any one scout or even the general scouting consensus as gospel. Obviously we'll have to agree to disagree if his opinion is based on being higher on McKinney than virtually anyone.

 

It does seem convenient that he's taking that stance on McKinney now rather than having to admit he was overshooting on a projected return for Happ but who am I to judge?

[Laika]

I still see starter upside in McKinney... He looks to me like a Justin Upton type who can hit 30 bombs with a decent average and make modest contributions on defense.

 

lol spicy comp

 

grant is a troll I guess... probably was all along

[BTS]

Grant, do you follow baseball anymore?

 

If so, it’s OK to just say you were wrong about the team getting significantly more than the Drury, Contreras, Gallegos package. I understand why someone might prefer the McKinney deal, but doubling down to the point that you’re throwing Justin Upton comes on McKinney is undignified.

[AdamGreenwood]

Inverse relationship between power and walk rate.

 

Josh Bell seems to be the same sort of player. Can't put it all together at the same time.

[Boxcar]

Yes I understand that and don't take the word of any one scout or even the general scouting consensus as gospel. Obviously we'll have to agree to disagree if his opinion is based on being higher on McKinney than virtually anyone.

 

It does seem convenient that he's taking that stance on McKinney now rather than having to admit he was overshooting on a projected return for Happ but who am I to judge?

 

At least we probably got a new board meme out of this. I can see "Justin Upton type" going places.

[Stoneyen]

Why are people so high on Drury and simultaneously down on McKinney? The have basically the same offensive projections, except McKinney is 2 years younger and hasn't had 1100 PA of below average batting at the MLB level.

 

I'm not gonna pretend to know anything about McKinney's defense, but Drury has set quite a low bar. I guess my question is why are many on this board optimistic about a breakout for Drury to be an average player, but are also writing off Mckinney as no more than a 4th OF or so.

[glory]

One thing I noticed about McKinney's milb numbers is that he hits a lot of line drives and fly balls. That seems like a good thing, but outside of that I have no idea what his upside is.

[King]

A 27 year old 1B with no track record of success in the majors is hardly my idea of valuable. Most teams have one of those guys.

 

It's also highly doubtful that they were shopping Gallegos specifically for bonus money. Shreve was the prize for St. Louis, who can't spend the bonus money effectively anyways. Their bullpen has been awful.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/white-sox-acquire-caleb-frare-from-yankees.html

 

It looks like they are in fact, shopping relievers for bonus money.

[Grant77]

I think you guys are really overstating the actual results that Justin Upton has achieved in the last several years.

 

For the record, he's averaged 29 HR per 700 PA with a .268 avg and pretty neutral D.

 

Here's what I said about McKinney:

 

"I still see starter upside in McKinney. The power is for real and he's still putting up a 120 wRC+ in AAA with an unusually low BABIP. He looks to me like a Justin Upton type who can hit 30 bombs with a decent average and make modest contributions on defense."

 

If that kind of upside for McKinney seems ridiculous to you guys then so be it. I'm just not seeing a huge difference from the guy who was a top 100 prospect, outside of some BABIP luck.

 

He's achieved strikingly similar results to Clint Frazier at the same age on the same team outside of BABIP, actually. Very similar K/BB and power numbers with more line drives and flyballs. Fangraphs gives McKinney a better present and future hit tool, with Frazier having better power.

Edited July 30, 2018 by Grant77

[Jimcanuck]

I think you guys are really overstating the actual results that Justin Upton has achieved in the last several years.

 

For the record, he's averaged 29 HR per 700 PA with a .268 avg and pretty neutral D.

 

Here's what I said about McKinney:

 

"I still see starter upside in McKinney. The power is for real and he's still putting up a 120 wRC+ in AAA with an unusually low BABIP. He looks to me like a Justin Upton type who can hit 30 bombs with a decent average and make modest contributions on defense."

 

If that kind of upside for McKinney seems ridiculous to you guys then so be it. I'm just not seeing a huge difference from the guy who was a top 100 prospect, outside of some BABIP luck.

 

He's achieved strikingly similar results to Clint Frazier at the same age on the same team outside of BABIP, actually. Very similar K/BB and power numbers with more line drives and flyballs. Fangraphs gives McKinney a better present and future hit tool, with Frazier having better power.

 

the way i read what you wrote, you are projecting justin upton numbers on mckinney. not that that is his ceiling

[Grant77]

the way i read what you wrote, you are projecting justin upton numbers on mckinney. not that that is his ceiling

 

To be clear, I think those types of numbers are attainable if he reaches his potential and the power translates to the big leagues.

[Boxcar]

To be clear, I think those types of numbers are attainable if he reaches his potential and the power translates to the big leagues.

 

After guys like Judge, Turner, Chapman, Altuve, Betts, etc. I'm not comfortable putting a ceiling on anyone. The Justin Upton comps are just not there for me, however. I'd be thrilled with a useful bench piece but obviously hopefully he's more than that.

[Laika]

After guys like Judge, Turner, Chapman, Altuve, Betts, etc. I'm not comfortable putting a ceiling on anyone.

 

This is why I prefer language like "95th percentile outcome" instead of ceiling. Talking in absolutes is dumb.

 

Billy McKinney could hit .260 consistently with 30+HR per year in like... his 99.8th percentile outcome.

 

His 95th percentile, or "reasonable ceiling", is probably something closer to Michael Brantley

[onwego]

Flashback to Billy McKinney, a small guard with the run-and-gun Nuggets in the early 1980s.

[Krylian]

Flashback to Billy McKinney, a small guard with the run-and-gun Nuggets in the early 1980s.

 

I'm assuming that was the black Billy McKinney.

[TheHurl]

Flashback to Billy McKinney, a small guard with the run-and-gun Nuggets in the early 1980s.

 

The Crazed Hummingbird

[onwego]

The Crazed Hummingbird

 

 

saw him play a few times on the visiting team at the SilverDome, always made an effort to see Alex English play when he was within road trip distance, and World B. Free as well....

[King]

Many in this thread were clamouring to have Giovanny Gallegos to be a big part of this trade and the Yankees traded him to St. Louis for very little. We surely could have had him if we were at all interested. I'm curious to see how he does with the Cards.

 

They got 1 million in international bonus money which allows them to sign a top pitching prospect. Voit is no slouch either. Doubt we'd have been able to meet their need if they were shopping Gallegos and Shreve for international bonus money.

 

 

I think Gallegos was the third piece in the proposed deal you're talking about after Drury and Roancy Contreras.

 

A 27 year old 1B with no track record of success in the majors is hardly my idea of valuable. Most teams have one of those guys.

 

It's also highly doubtful that they were shopping Gallegos specifically for bonus money. Shreve was the prize for St. Louis, who can't spend the bonus money effectively anyways. Their bullpen has been awful.

 

There was one person suggesting Gallegos as a third piece but good try.

 

Also since you brought up the proposal, remember how you said it wasn't nearly enough, but it turned out to be much more than the actual return? Good times

 

No, I don't remember that. McKinney is a more valuable piece than Contreras in my opinion. If we wanted a high upside arm with zero track record that is 5+ years away, we could have simply traded away an excess reliever to St. Louis for the bonus money.

 

I mean, I can see the argument in that he's much more of a known quantity, but he kinda sucks. He's a first round pick and yet 3 orgs have already given up on him. Seems like a positive outcome for McKinney is a back up OF that we could get on FA for a million bucks or so. In that case, I'd much rather gamble on talent when I wouldn't be missing out on much with the alternative.

 

Given that McKinney really isn't very interesting, we would have been way better off with a young arm high upside arm + interesting reliever combination if the opportunity was there. LF prospect without a carrying tool who has been traded multiple times and tumbling down to the back end of their prospect ranking vs SP prospect with high upside thought to be one of their bigger risers - not even close for me.

 

I still see starter upside in McKinney. The power is for real and he's still putting up a 120 wRC+ in AAA with an unusually low BABIP. He looks to me like a Justin Upton type who can hit 30 bombs with a decent average and make modest contributions on defense.

 

As for the low A lottery tickets, I just don't place a ton of value on them unless they are can't miss top 100 guys with off the charts stuff, which Contreras certainly is not. You're talking a good 5 years and maybe more before we see any contributions, not to mention the fact that most of these guys flame out before even reaching AAA. I get the appeal that he could be a 3+ WAR starter someday, but there's just so much risk.

 

Ah, I see your going to stick to your side using the argument of your insanely high projection of McKinney that doesn't line up with any current scouting opinions, got it.

 

Grant, do you follow baseball anymore?

 

If so, it’s OK to just say you were wrong about the team getting significantly more than the Drury, Contreras, Gallegos package. I understand why someone might prefer the McKinney deal, but doubling down to the point that you’re throwing Justin Upton comes on McKinney is undignified.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/white-sox-acquire-caleb-frare-from-yankees.html

 

It looks like they are in fact, shopping relievers for bonus money.

 

I think you guys are really overstating the actual results that Justin Upton has achieved in the last several years.

 

For the record, he's averaged 29 HR per 700 PA with a .268 avg and pretty neutral D.

 

Here's what I said about McKinney:

 

"I still see starter upside in McKinney. The power is for real and he's still putting up a 120 wRC+ in AAA with an unusually low BABIP. He looks to me like a Justin Upton type who can hit 30 bombs with a decent average and make modest contributions on defense."

 

If that kind of upside for McKinney seems ridiculous to you guys then so be it. I'm just not seeing a huge difference from the guy who was a top 100 prospect, outside of some BABIP luck.

 

He's achieved strikingly similar results to Clint Frazier at the same age on the same team outside of BABIP, actually. Very similar K/BB and power numbers with more line drives and flyballs. Fangraphs gives McKinney a better present and future hit tool, with Frazier having better power.

Grant..... you were wrong. More than once! Admit it.

[Terminator]

This trade is good for the Yankees. But the jays got the short end of this trade.

Besides this team needs pitching prospects. Not these to morons.

 

Todd was right again!

[Ray]

Drury DFA'd, McKinney claimed by the Brewers. Pretty much puts a bow on this trade.

 

Probably one of the more glaringly bad trades during Shapiro/Atkin's tenure, but even great front offices make mishaps all the time. They've still made a lot more good trades than bad. The same processes and methods of evaluation landed us Teoscar Hernandez, Thomas Hatch, Derek Fisher, Randal Grichuk, Santiago Espinal for practically nothing, and all of them are contributing to this winning team. Not to mention, in retrospect, they really seemed to have knocked the Stroman and Donaldson trades out of the park.

 

In fact, the only two trades I would categorize as absolute losses would be

 

Solarte for Edward Olivares

Happ for Drury/McKinney.

[dineke]

And the Yankees went a plucked Urshela from us and he turned into a better than either Drury or McKinney. Infruriating

[wilko]

Drury DFA'd, McKinney claimed by the Brewers. Pretty much puts a bow on this trade.

 

Probably one of the more glaringly bad trades during Shapiro/Atkin's tenure, but even great front offices make mishaps all the time. They've still made a lot more good trades than bad. The same processes and methods of evaluation landed us Teoscar Hernandez, Thomas Hatch, Derek Fisher, Randal Grichuk, Santiago Espinal for practically nothing, and all of them are contributing to this winning team. Not to mention, in retrospect, they really seemed to have knocked the Stroman and Donaldson trades out of the park.

 

In fact, the only two trades I would categorize as absolute losses would be

 

Solarte for Edward Olivares

Happ for Drury/McKinney.

 

Solarte was a bum so any return is a win. The Happ deal was a roll of the dice that didn't pan out for the Jays.