General 2018 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[BTS]

That doesn't mean Matt Boyd is good or anything to lose sleep over.

 

As for Tulo - I mean we got 4.1 WAR out of him over his first 172 games with the Jays - for what - say $25M? That's not bad value at all. I must have missed where everyone knew he'd go from a 2.9 WAR season to a 0 WAR season (missing 100 games) to missing all of 2018.

 

Tulo was acquired as a 30-year old struggling after major hip surgery who couldn't even stay healthy in his 20s, and yet was owed $98M through his age-36 season. It was an obvious landmine of a contract, and a clear a case as you'll see of mortgaging the future to win in the present.

[metafour]

Did people really flag the Tulo trade as a bad move the second it happened? That's not exactly what I remember. I mean s*** luck that Tulo's been hurt so much and truly seems to have regressed a lot, but we also unloaded Jose Reyes at the expense of Jeff Hoffman - who looks like a bust anyway.

 

I suspect there was just as many people questioning the David Price trade and to date, we haven't missed anyone from that trade.

 

I saw the Tulo trade as dumping Reyes (a dead weight contract) to get a guy who was figuratively just turning the clock back a year or so on Reyes, with an even longer contract that would become dead weight. This is basically exactly what ended up happening. It was a completely short-sighted move, which I guess you could excuse as "necessary" at the time, but anyone with a brain should have been able to foresee that a guy who couldn't stay healthy at all in his 20's (Tulo's injury history was historically bad) was going to be a complete mess in his 30's. Why the hell would you expect him to "age gracefully"? He was obviously going to fall off a cliff as no shortstop (a highly physically demanding position) can survive that many major injuries.

 

The majority of you falsely evaluate prospects given up. Its not a matter of whether or not the guys we traded away became anything or not. Prospects are like currency: the evaluation comes from what you used your currency on. AA's biggest mistake wasn't trading prospects away, it was that he kept acquiring overpaid declining veterans that ended up completely f***ing up our payroll flexibility. The fact that no one from that Marlins trade became a star player doesn't magically negate the fact that we added something like $60 million in payroll that ended up being horribly inefficient allocation of resources. Need I remind you all that a year after that trade we actually went into the season with Osuna and Castro up from A-ball to fill the bullpen, Norris in the rotation, and Pompey in the OF? Those were desperation moves because we had no more payroll flexibility to fill holes with valid options, so we were forced to rush up a bunch of kids to patch holes on the roster. Osuna ended up working out, the other 3 were flops. Trading your farm for Chris Sale is fine; the STUPID move is trading your farm for guys like Dickey (old and a fluke), Reyes and Johnson (injury risk and obvious significant decline risk in the case of Reyes who was an all-speed type of player that wouldn't age well), and then Tulo (monumentally bad injury history with tons of years left on his deal) who was actually brought in because we had to FIX the mistake that was Reyes.

[Jimcanuck]

AA's biggest mistake was that he didn't go ALL-IN enough. Should have dumped Tellez for Zobrist and made a couple other deals.

 

Especially now that everyone in the AL is a super team.

 

AA went ALL-IN more than any GM in my long memory.

[MarcoSanchez]

What I hate is that we started 0-2 in both the 2015 and 2016 ALCS.

[Brownie19]

Tulo was acquired as a 30-year old struggling after major hip surgery who couldn't even stay healthy in his 20s, and yet was owed $98M through his age-36 season. It was an obvious landmine of a contract, and a clear a case as you'll see of mortgaging the future to win in the present.

 

Yeah but f*** - even when he "didn't stay healthy" he was posting 5+ WAR season (except in 2012). He was a 170 wRC+ hitter in 2014 - the year before we got him. Even with his "struggle" returning from hip surgery, he was a .300/.348/.471 106 wRC+ hitter. There was a legitimate possibility that as he worked his way back from surgery that his hitting would improve (as his defense did).

 

You guys act like there was 0% change of that happening and that you all knew he'd be a pumpkin by 2016 - 2 years removed from being the best hitter in the NL. I just don't buy it.

[BTS]

Yeah but f*** - even when he "didn't stay healthy" he was posting 5+ WAR season (except in 2012). He was a 170 wRC+ hitter in 2014 - the year before we got him. Even with his "struggle" returning from hip surgery, he was a .300/.348/.471 106 wRC+ hitter. There was a legitimate possibility that as he worked his way back from surgery that his hitting would improve (as his defense did).

 

You guys act like there was 0% change of that happening and that you all knew he'd be a pumpkin by 2016 - 2 years removed from being the best hitter in the NL. I just don't buy it.

 

Of course it wasn't a 0% chance of him earning his contract. Generally, I'm averse to $100M long-term contracts for oft-injured 30-year olds though. Projecting the future is hard, but avoiding obvious potential landmines like that is a good way to remain perpetually competitive.

[Brownie19]

Of course it wasn't a 0% chance of him earning his contract. Generally, I'm averse to $100M long-term contracts for oft-injured 30-year olds though. Projecting the future is hard, but avoiding obvious potential landmines like that is a good way to remain perpetually competitive.

 

Yeah I get that, but he was coming off a 5.1 WAR season in 2014 (in only 91 games). I think it was realistic to expect this type of decline:

 

2016: 3.0

2017: 2.5

2018: 2.0

2019: 1.5

2020: 1.0

 

That's 10 WAR for $100M I'm not sure what they are valuing 1 WAR at these days. It was $9M per WAR last year and people generally thought that was on the rise back in 2015 (it may not be now). That isn't AWFUL value, especially if it improves your team at the right time - in 2015 and 2016 when you're making a push.

 

I agree it's not a great plan of attack to trade for 30 years old's who are owed $100M - but there was a decent chance this wouldn't turn out nearly as bad as it has. The drop in FA values doesn't help either.

[BTS]

Tulo trade was just a way for AA to use FA money on a star that would never sign here. I think at the time of the deal it would have been like signing Tulo to 5/100M from FA. And at the same time dumping Reyes.

 

I think the FA climate has changed drastically in the last year or so but back in 2013, there was no way to effectively use your payroll space in free agency. It was either overpay for a s*** player or just keep the money.

 

I think this was largely the basis for most of AA's trades that ate up payroll. We could trade for "star" players to consume payroll or just overpay the s*** bags that would actually come here in FA.

 

That's exactly what it was. Unfortunately that strategy amounts to spending prospect capital on free agent contracts after the selling teams have already benefitted from the first couple of years, when the player is closest to prime age. What we've seen in 2017 and 2018 is the natural result of a strategy that was doomed to be unsustainable.

[KevinGregg]

Yeah but f*** - even when he "didn't stay healthy" he was posting 5+ WAR season (except in 2012). He was a 170 wRC+ hitter in 2014 - the year before we got him. Even with his "struggle" returning from hip surgery, he was a .300/.348/.471 106 wRC+ hitter. There was a legitimate possibility that as he worked his way back from surgery that his hitting would improve (as his defense did).

 

You guys act like there was 0% change of that happening and that you all knew he'd be a pumpkin by 2016 - 2 years removed from being the best hitter in the NL. I just don't buy it.

 

I remember basically only Boxy was excited, everyone else was like "wait we gave up Hoffman for the corpse of Tulo?"

[BTS]

I remember basically only Boxy was excited, everyone else was like "wait we gave up Hoffman for the corpse of Tulo?"

 

I remember Dinger being super excited about acquiring the 'best shortstop on the planet'. Oops.

[Brownie19]

I remember basically only Boxy was excited, everyone else was like "wait we gave up Hoffman for the corpse of Tulo?"

 

He was 9 month removed from being the best hitter in the NL. A lot of hindsight prophets in here today.

 

Based on Tulo - I assume nobody wants to pay JD $20-25M a season over the next 3 or 4 years right? He's been injury prone. He looks like a corpse of himself right now. We all fully expect he'll be posting 0 WAR in 2020 right?

[L54]

He was 9 month removed from being the best hitter in the NL. A lot of hindsight prophets in here today.

 

Based on Tulo - I assume nobody wants to pay JD $20-25M a season over the next 3 or 4 years right? He's been injury prone. He looks like a corpse of himself right now. We all fully expect he'll be posting 0 WAR in 2020 right?

 

Your dumn. Nobody thinks JD and Tulo’s injury histories are even remotely similar. You shouldn’t either.

[Jimcanuck]

I remember basically only Boxy was excited, everyone else was like "wait we gave up Hoffman for the corpse of Tulo?"

 

Nah the majority of board members were excited by the trade. BTS and some others questioned it. Others, me included, were on the fence.

[Brownie19]

Your dumn. Nobody thinks JD and Tulo’s injury histories are even remotely similar. You shouldn’t either.

 

2 years before we traded for Tulo

 

126 games played

91 games played

 

2 years before JD's free agency

 

113 games played

36 games played + whatever else he manages this year.

 

Tulo was 31 when we acquired him, JD will be 34 when he's a FA and nobody knows if his arm will ever return to 'normal'. You can point to what JD did between 2013 - 2016 all you want, but that's old news, especially seeing as he's further down the aging curve.

 

JD's gone from a 145-155 wRC+ hitter to 107 this year. Tulo went from a 133-170 wRC+ hitter to a 106 hitter the year we traded for him.

 

 

Sorry, but I fail to see why you think these situations aren't remotely close.

[Olerud363]

2 years before we traded for Tulo

 

126 games played

91 games played

 

2 years before JD's free agency

 

113 games played

36 games played + whatever else he manages this year.

 

Tulo was 31 when we acquired him, JD will be 34 when he's a FA and nobody knows if his arm will ever return to 'normal'. You can point to what JD did between 2013 - 2016 all you want, but that's old news, especially seeing as he's further down the aging curve.

 

JD's gone from a 145-155 wRC+ hitter to 107 this year. Tulo went from a 133-170 wRC+ hitter to a 106 hitter the year we traded for him.

 

 

Sorry, but I fail to see why you think these situations aren't remotely close.

 

I'm not sure either.... I mean I guess you can argue that Donaldson had a perfect health record between 2013 and 2016... though it wasn't quite perfect. He played through injury in September and the playoffs of 2016 but didn't miss games.

[MarcoSanchez]

I dont understand though, is Tulo dead? or has he given up like Rasmus?

 

They should at least let us know if he will play again this year.

[MarcoSanchez]

Just had a look, the worst organization in Baseball has turned Hoffman into a reliever. We can probably still get him back for like Clippard or something

[L54]

2 years before we traded for Tulo

 

126 games played

91 games played

 

2 years before JD's free agency

 

113 games played

36 games played + whatever else he manages this year.

 

Tulo was 31 when we acquired him, JD will be 34 when he's a FA and nobody knows if his arm will ever return to 'normal'. You can point to what JD did between 2013 - 2016 all you want, but that's old news, especially seeing as he's further down the aging curve.

 

JD's gone from a 145-155 wRC+ hitter to 107 this year. Tulo went from a 133-170 wRC+ hitter to a 106 hitter the year we traded for him.

 

 

Sorry, but I fail to see why you think these situations aren't remotely close.

 

Nice, if you make it the last three years for Tulo it looks like this:

 

47 games played

126 games played

91 games played

 

And for Donaldson:

 

155 games played

126 games played

36 games + ROS

 

And that folks, is today's lesson in sample size.

[Brownie19]

Nice, if you make it the last three years for Tulo it looks like this:

 

47 games played

126 games played

91 games played

 

And for Donaldson:

 

155 games played

126 games played

36 games + ROS

 

And that folks, is today's lesson in sample size.

 

Good point - I'm sure this is how the Jays will evaluate it.

 

Mark - "Well Ross - what do you think, should we offer JD a 4 year $100M deal? I don't know, those are his age 34-37 years and he's been hurt a lot over the past 2 years. This is pretty risky - some might say as risky as when AA took on Tulo in 2015."

 

Ross - "But he was healthy in 2016 at age 31"

 

Mark - "What the f*** does that have to do with anything Ross"

 

 

 

JD's started 129 of a possible 248 games over the past 2 years (52%) and now seemingly can't throw. At age 34, he's as risky and injury prone as Tulo was when we traded for him. Or at least close enough to make a comparison.

[Slade]

[Spanky99]

Good point - I'm sure this is how the Jays will evaluate it.

 

Mark - "Well Ross - what do you think, should we offer JD a 4 year $100M deal? I don't know, those are his age 34-37 years and he's been hurt a lot over the past 2 years. This is pretty risky - some might say as risky as when AA took on Tulo in 2015."

 

Ross - "But he was healthy in 2016 at age 31"

 

Mark - "What the f*** does that have to do with anything Ross"

 

 

 

JD's started 129 of a possible 248 games over the past 2 years (52%) and now seemingly can't throw. At age 34, he's as risky and injury prone as Tulo was when we traded for him. Or at least close enough to make a comparison.

 

You just pulled an Olerud... kid's spinning off on you.

[Spanky99]

 

I wonder how many team's are salivating at buying reasonably low, it'll be interesting! I'm starting to believe they won't, sorry Hurl.

[Brownie19]

You just pulled an Olerud... kid's spinning off on you.

 

[tercet]

What is the fascination with Lourdes Gurriel? He has been terrible in the minors, terrible in the majors.

[Bobthe4th]

What is the fascination with Lourdes Gurriel? He has been terrible in the minors, terrible in the majors.

 

Haha, not sure if serious?

 

He's 24, has 5 and a half years left on a 7 year contract, can play multiple positions, has played less than one season's worth of games since coming over, and has significant more upside than the trash we've been using as the 25th man / utility guy (Urshela, Gift etc).

 

Why would you not have him on the 25 man now that the playoffs are almost certainly out of reach?

[John_Havok]

Haha, not sure if serious?

 

He's 24, has 5 and a half years left on a 7 year contract, can play multiple positions, has played less than one season's worth of games since coming over, and has significant more upside than the trash we've been using as the 25th man / utility guy (Urshela, Gift etc).

 

Why would you not have him on the 25 man now that the playoffs are almost certainly out of reach?

 

He's probably trolling for a bet.... or maybe has misinterpreted any positive comments about LG Jr as being people thinking he's the second coming of Alomar - which is definitely not the case.

 

I'm not sure of anyone here who has the opinion other than he MAY become an average regular at best, with the bonus of some positional flexibility.

 

Nobody here that I've seen has projected anything better than that.

 

He does have above average exit velocity in his limited 90 PA sample size so far at 92.4 mph. Mlb average is 88.7. But his K and BB rates are an issue at 23.3 and 2.2 % respectively

[L54]

What is the fascination with Lourdes Gurriel? He has been terrible in the minors, terrible in the majors.

 

Who is fascinated with him? I think everyone around here understands what kind of player he is

[Bobthe4th]

He's probably trolling for a bet.... or maybe has misinterpreted any positive comments about LG Jr as being people thinking he's the second coming of Alomar - which is definitely not the case.

 

I'm not sure of anyone here who has the opinion other than he MAY become an average regular at best, with the bonus of some positional flexibility.

 

Nobody here that I've seen has projected anything better than that.

 

He does have above average exit velocity in his limited 90 PA sample size so far at 92.4 mph. Mlb average is 88.7. But his K and BB rates are an issue at 23.3 and 2.2 % respectively

 

Yeah exactly.

 

I'm probably higher on him than most as I think he could end up being the the replacement for Travis at 2B, but that's a best case scenario IMO.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

I think he ends up better than Travis at 2B. Healthier, too. Win/win.

[John_Havok]

I think he ends up better than Travis at 2B. Healthier, too. Win/win.

 

Better than pre-injury Travis or post-injury Travis?

 

There's quite a difference