Around Baseball 2018

[jays4life19]

Gross. Kershaw is possibly not even a star SP anymore given the velocity drop and limited arsenal. I'm expecting a Felix level drop off in production for this guy.

 

Well, i was just guessing what the market would give him not necessarily what i think he's worth going forward.

 

Anyways, looks like i was wrong and it's going to be a 3 year deal.

[Laika]

I wouldn't trade Julian Merryweather for Clayton Kershaw at 3/$90M+

[Abomination]

I wouldn't trade Julian Merryweather for Clayton Kershaw at 3/$90M+

 

I find it hard seeing him not earning that contract. He'll probably average in the 4 WAR range for the next 3 years, more if he sorts his back out.

[glory]

Kershaw's deal is 3/93.

[G-Snarls]

[P2F]

So the Dodgers basically added an additional year of Kershaw at $28M, IIRC.

 

If he plays out the duration of this contract in his current role, I'll be shocked. His back looks like it's f***ed - or, at least, he's pitching like it is.

[Abomination]

Kershaw's deal is 3/93.

 

Plus incentives apparently.

 

I'm not too high on this from Kershaw's perspective, unless the incentives are fairly significant. Maybe the market just isn't there for him after some health issues the last few years, but I feel like hitting the market as the best SP in a weak FA year could have netted him an extra 4 years at 25M / year above what he got. Maybe he ends up getting that anyway, but a major injury could cost him a ton.

 

From the Dodgers perspective, this makes a lot of sense imo. They don't want him to leave this offseason while they're in the middle of an elite compete phase, and they probably don't want to pay him many additional years in case he's about to break down. This couldn't have worked out much better for them.

[Laika]

I find it hard seeing him not earning that contract. He'll probably average in the 4 WAR range for the next 3 years, more if he sorts his back out.

 

Steamer doesn't even think he's a 4 WAR dude next year.

[BTS]

Charlie Morton won’t gets QO? Weird.

[glory]

Kershaw taking that deal might be a sign that he knows his days as an elite pitcher are over. No way he settles for that otherwise.

[jaysblue]

Charlie Morton won’t gets QO? Weird.

 

Astros probably don't want to pay him close to 18M for one season if he accepted. Didn't he say he wanted to retire in the next year or so as well?

 

Makes him a more attractive option on the FA market now. He likely get a two-year deal around $30M.

[jaysblue]

Kershaw taking that deal might be a sign that he knows his days as an elite pitcher are over. No way he settles for that otherwise.

 

His days of being an elite pitcher are over. I don't see him being a Top 5-10 arm in baseball anymore moving forward.

[Ray]

Exactly? Meh.

 

High OBP, high contact player with 15-20 HR power in an OF filled with strikeout magnets like Grichuk and Hernandez. Has mashed at Rogers Center (1.198 OPS in 72 PA). Exactly might've been strong, but for a team that was bottom third in OBP and Contact%, it would be a nice fit.

[jaysblue]

High OBP, high contact player with 15-20 HR power in an OF filled with strikeout magnets like Grichuk and Hernandez. Has mashed at Rogers Center (1.198 OPS in 72 PA). Exactly might've been strong, but for a team that was bottom third in OBP and Contact%, it would be a nice fit.

 

Also, he's very fragile. Not a guarantee to play 150 games.

[Laika]

High OBP, high contact player with 15-20 HR power in an OF filled with strikeout magnets like Grichuk and Hernandez. Has mashed at Rogers Center (1.198 OPS in 72 PA). Exactly might've been strong, but for a team that was bottom third in OBP and Contact%, it would be a nice fit.

 

I'm not sure why his ability to make contact matters relative to the rest of the team. It's not like lowering the team strikeout rate by a few points would have some magical synergistic effect on run scoring. I understand why these arguments are attractive to people but I don't really assume that they have any merit.

[jaysguy44]

Fire sale in Cleveland?

[Ray]

I'm not sure why his ability to make contact matters relative to the rest of the team. It's not like lowering the team strikeout rate by a few points would have some magical synergistic effect on run scoring. I understand why these arguments are attractive to people but I don't really assume that they have any merit.

 

Of course it wouldn't have a magical effect. It's simply a step forward in the right direction. You get better by adding good players, and Michael Brantley is a good player.

[Orgfiller]

Plus incentives apparently.

 

I'm not too high on this from Kershaw's perspective, unless the incentives are fairly significant. Maybe the market just isn't there for him after some health issues the last few years, but I feel like hitting the market as the best SP in a weak FA year could have netted him an extra 4 years at 25M / year above what he got. Maybe he ends up getting that anyway, but a major injury could cost him a ton.

 

From the Dodgers perspective, this makes a lot of sense imo. They don't want him to leave this offseason while they're in the middle of an elite compete phase, and they probably don't want to pay him many additional years in case he's about to break down. This couldn't have worked out much better for them.

 

I think you're vastly underestimating what Kershaw throwing 90 and getting rocked in the playoffs after back-to-back seasons with serious back injuries which lead to declining velocity and performance meant for his value. He was not getting this good a deal in the open market IMO, this is a high risk/high reward deal for both parties, and if he bounces back he'll still be a 33 year old ace with substantial financial security to do whatever he wants at that point.

 

No one is giving out a 7 year deal to this version of Kershaw in my opinion, certainly not at $25M per.

[Bobthe4th]

mlbtraderumors.com free agent predictions

 

FWIW they have us signing Trevor Cahill for 2 years and $22m.

 

Also predicting $420m for Harper, and $390m for Machado!

[glory]

Fire sale in Cleveland?

 

Apparently they will listen to offers for anyone except Lindor and Ramirez.

[Abomination]

mlbtraderumors.com free agent predictions

 

FWIW they have us signing Trevor Cahill for 2 years and $22m.

 

Also predicting $420m for Harper, and $390m for Machado!

 

I pity the team that gives either of those guys that kind of contract. Unless it's Boston or New York. f*** them.

 

I'd maybe be okay with 2/22 for Cahill if the second year is vesting based on innings pitched (say 150+).

[Abomination]

Steamer doesn't even think he's a 4 WAR dude next year.

 

Well, pretty damn close. It's also assuming a fairly steep age regression from what I can tell, which if his health improves is likely to be more than cancelled out. I stand by my opinion that it's a good deal for LA and a bad one for Kershaw, unless Kershaw knows something catastrophic about his health that we don't.

[Bobthe4th]

I pity the team that gives either of those guys that kind of contract. Unless it's Boston or New York. f*** them.

 

I'd maybe be okay with 2/22 for Cahill if the second year is vesting based on innings pitched (say 150+).

 

Heyman has the more reasonable (!) figures of $330-374m for Harper and $300-325m for Machado:

 

[Bobthe4th]

 

Ryu did get one in the end.

[Spanky99]

 

Ryu did get one in the end.

 

Out of those guys listed, I could really only see Ryu accepting, maybe Grandal. We'll see within 10 days, regardless.

[Bobthe4th]

Out of those guys listed, I could really only see Ryu accepting, maybe Grandal. We'll see within 10 days, regardless.

 

Yeah I agree. I was also a bit surprised that Brantley didn’t get a QO.

[BTS]

I don’t understand the decisions not to qualify Morton or Brantley. Both of those guys should have had value on a 1/18 deal. I’d be disappointed if Shatkins wouldn’t offer some assets for either player on that contract, and they’re one of many teams that could use help from Morton or Brantley.

[Pendleton]

I don’t understand the decisions not to qualify Morton or Brantley. Both of those guys should have had value on a 1/18 deal. I’d be disappointed if Shatkins wouldn’t offer some assets for either player on that contract, and they’re one of many teams that could use help from Morton or Brantley.

 

Yeah I feel like both are going to be offered multi year deals in the ballpark of that number, so I don't understand the decision at all.

[Spanky99]

I don’t understand the decisions not to qualify Morton or Brantley. Both of those guys should have had value on a 1/18 deal. I’d be disappointed if Shatkins wouldn’t offer some assets for either player on that contract, and they’re one of many teams that could use help from Morton or Brantley.

 

Strange, no doubt.

[jaysblue]

I don’t understand the decisions not to qualify Morton or Brantley. Both of those guys should have had value on a 1/18 deal. I’d be disappointed if Shatkins wouldn’t offer some assets for either player on that contract, and they’re one of many teams that could use help from Morton or Brantley.

 

Cleveland must be strapped for cash. Heard they even want to deal EE and maybe one of Kluber or Carrasco.

 

Astros probably didn't want to pay that high AAV on Morton if he accepted. I think he gave the hint that he wanted to retire soon anyways, so he might have accepted the QO. Plus, I'm sure the Astros want to target another arm via free agency or trade and didn't want to commit one of those spots and that much cash to Morton this early in the offseason.