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Posted

Shohei Otani will leave hundreds of millions of dollars on the table to play in MLB next season

 

Jeff Passan, MLB columnist, Yahoo Sports, Sep 13, 2017, 2:31 AM

 

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It isn’t about the money. Athletes reflexively say this, and sports fans roll their eyes, because

of course it’s about the money. It’s always about the money. Then along comes Shohei Otani,

23 years old, the finest baseball player Japan has produced in years, maybe decades, a once-

in-a-generation sort who can throw 102 mph and hit tape-measure home runs, a player whose

free-market value would start at $200 million if Major League Baseball didn’t restrict the

signings of international players under 25 to barely $10 million.

 

Only Otani, it seems, does not mind the prospect of giving up literally hundreds of millions of

dollars to play in the greatest league in the world. Multiple reports out of Japan on Wednesday

morning there said the same thing: Otani, who has been called the Japanese Babe Ruth, will

enter the posting system this winter and play for a major league team in 2018. This came as

no surprise to the general managers and scouts who have flocked in recent weeks to watch

him pitch for the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters. It also didn’t lessen their excitement any.

 

“It’s really happening,” one GM said, half-mocking, half-giddy at the prospect of the 23-year-

old spicing up the free-agent market this winter. And fascinating as his courtship would be in

normal circumstances, the prospect of the best player available signing one of the most

piddling contracts makes it unlike any free agency sports has seen: One where it literally isn’t

about the money.

 

If it were, Otani would wait two years, bide his time with the Fighters and arrive in the major

leagues a true free agent, able to sign with whomever he wants for however much he desires.

Instead, MLB’s new collective-bargaining agreement limits the teams to hard-capped bonus

pools between $4.75 million and $5.75 million to spend from July 2 until June of next year. A

team can trade for up to 75 percent of its bonus-pool value, meaning the New York Yankees

and Boston Red Sox, both of whom have acquired international bonus money, can have a

maximum of $8.3 million. The eight teams with $5.75 million to spend can deal for up to

$10.1 million total, though three of them are restricted from signing any player for over

$300,000 because of penalties from exceeding past pools.

 

Eleven teams in all, including the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres and

Houston Astros, face the $300,000 ceiling, complicating his decision even more. Otani

considered signing with the Dodgers out of high school. The Cubs, with Jake Arrieta’s pending

free agency and huge raises coming for their position players, covet Otani. San Diego has

spent as much time as any team aside from the Texas Rangers pursuing relationships with

Otani and trying to strengthen its Japanese pipeline. The Astros have sent a delegation of

officials to Japan and, like every other team, cannot conceive of having what one scout calls

“one of the five best pitchers in the world” for such a bargain.

 

The process for Otani to come to MLB would work as follows: First, the league and Nippon

Professional Baseball need to agree on a new posting system, according to sources. While the

current version caps the posting fee paid to the Japanese team at $20 million, the sides

continue to negotiate new terms and are expected to settle on a new deal before November,

sources said. The fee is likely to remain flat, allowing Otani to shop for his preferred team, as

opposed to the past, when it was part of a blind bidding and handcuffed the player to the

major league team that bid the most.

 

Once Nippon Ham posts Otani – something to which they’ve agreed already, according to the

Japanese reports – he will have a window during which he can choose his new team. The

international money will be treated as a signing bonus, and Otani – who in the world’s second-

best league last season posted a 1.86 ERA, struck out 174 in 140 innings and hit

.322/.416/.588 with 27 home runs – will sign a minor league contract.

 

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Posted

So this stupid cap could have potentially deprived us of ever seeing Otani in MLB (if he got injured in the next two years).

 

I'd really like to see that nonsense scrapped.

Posted

Dodger or Yankee.

 

Hopefully Dodger so he doesn't destroy us for next decade plus. You would see the intrigue of an AL Team so he could DH though.

Posted
Dodger or Yankee.

 

Hopefully Dodger so he doesn't destroy us for next decade plus. You would see the intrigue of an AL Team so he could DH though.

 

Aren't the Dodgers over their bonus pool restricting them from signing him?

Posted
Aren't the Dodgers over their bonus pool restricting them from signing him?

 

Yes, they're restricted to a maximum of a $300k bonus for any one international player.

Posted
Dodger or Yankee.

 

Hopefully Dodger so he doesn't destroy us for next decade plus. You would see the intrigue of an AL Team so he could DH though.

 

I thought too that an AL team would make more sense since then he can DH more often, but on the flipside, an AL team would have to give up the DH in games he starts, which might suck for them late-game. A lot of it I think will come down to whichever team is able and willing to give him the most play-time as a batter, so it won't necessarily be whichever team has the most international cap room.

Posted
Yes, they're restricted to a maximum of a $300k bonus for any one international player.

 

How much room do we have?

Posted
How much room do we have?

 

It's a $4.75 million total pool for us. We can trade to obtain up to 75% more though.

Posted
It's a $4.75 million total pool for us. We can trade to obtain up to 75% more though.

 

Spent $3.475 million of it on Eric Pardinho, Miguel Hiraldo, and 2 other IFA's. This is not counting the unreported amounts we spent on 12 other IFAs on top of that. So not much to work with unless we trade for bonus pool money.

 

Also this little tidbit is interesting:

 

Only eight clubs as of now have the ability to give a signing bonus of more than $1 million through next June: Texas ($3,535,000), the New York Yankees ($3.25 million), Pittsburgh ($2,266,750), Minnesota ($1,895,000), Arizona ($1,867,500), Miami ($1.74 million), Detroit ($1,072,000) and Seattle ($1,057,500).
Posted

Hoping the fact that he can apparently hit really well will make him want to play in the National League

 

Cause f*** the Red Sox and Yankees

Posted
Remember when the Jays signed Darvish and BJMB exploded?

 

Man it wasn't just the BJMB it was the media to. There was a Leafs game on that night and all the attention was on the Jays. It was a great night until we didn't sign him haha

Posted
Man it wasn't just the BJMB it was the media to. There was a Leafs game on that night and all the attention was on the Jays. It was a great night until we didn't sign him haha

 

Who was that Fishercats (?) reporter who tweeted, in no uncertain wording, that the Jays were the winning bid?

Posted

If he is expecting to get alot of ABs why would he go to the National league? He would only get to hit once every 5 days and a couple of times pinch hitting in between.

In the American league, he could pitch every 5 days and DH or pinch hit the rest of the time.

Posted
If he is expecting to get alot of ABs why would he go to the National league? He would only get to hit once every 5 days and a couple of times pinch hitting in between.

In the American league, he could pitch every 5 days and DH or pinch hit the rest of the time.

 

I've always wanted to see a guy good enough to do this because it would be so cool, but really do you think a good AL team would really use him to DH and especially make some sort of commitment to him to do so? I just can't see it.

Posted
I've always wanted to see a guy good enough to do this because it would be so cool, but really do you think a good AL team would really use him to DH and especially make some sort of commitment to him to do so? I just can't see it.

 

It'll be interesting to see how good his bat is. I know he's considered to be a better pitcher than hitter, but a team could possibly play him full time outfield, and have him also be the closer. That's assuming he's allowed to warm up in the pen between innings if he's a player already in the game, which I'm not sure is permitted.

Posted
I've always wanted to see a guy good enough to do this because it would be so cool, but really do you think a good AL team would really use him to DH and especially make some sort of commitment to him to do so? I just can't see it.

 

Considering his cost, if his pitching alone turns out to be as good as everyone thinks he is, anything else is a bonus. If his bat isnt good enough, he doesnt DH anymore.

Posted
Who was that Fishercats (?) reporter who tweeted, in no uncertain wording, that the Jays were the winning bid?

 

Kevin gray

Posted

Here's what I never understood. If you're a player, why don't you negotiate a deal with the team that they don't choose to tender you a contract after X years (less than the 6 required for FA). Would the MLB crack down on this? I don't see why, as it isn't subverting rules to benefit the team.

 

Surely some team would agree to this in order to get a talent like Otani for even 2-3 years.

Posted
Here's what I never understood. If you're a player, why don't you negotiate a deal with the team that they don't choose to tender you a contract after X years (less than the 6 required for FA). Would the MLB crack down on this? I don't see why, as it isn't subverting rules to benefit the team.

 

Surely some team would agree to this in order to get a talent like Otani for even 2-3 years.

 

I don't know if MLB would allow it, or if they could block it. Dunno how the rules are structured. What I expect to see happen, is Otani will be given the majority of his money in his final season before arbitration, which will dramatically push up his arbitration amount (assuming he pitches well).

Posted
Hoping the fact that he can apparently hit really well will make him want to play in the National League

 

Cause f*** the Red Sox and Yankees

 

You realize he can hit more in the American League. The DH rule will allow him to pitch every 5 days and hit every day. In the NL He gets pinch hits unless He plays a position. He signs in NY or Texas.

Posted
You realize he can hit more in the American League. The DH rule will allow him to pitch every 5 days and hit every day. In the NL He gets pinch hits unless He plays a position. He signs in NY or Texas.

 

Or Seattle, or Anaheim, or Toronto....... Even if you just limit it to the AL (which is wrong IMO), considering that money is far from the biggest deciding factor, he could sign with almost anyone.

Posted
give me his projections in terms of next year and at his peak. if he signed in the AL, will he actually be deployed as a pitcher and DH or are we talking about an ace-potential pitcher who can hold his own in inter-league matches and as a spot pinch hitter?
Posted

I have read many think he has Ace upside as a pitcher. Expectations vary as a hitter but I have seen some puttimg his ceiling as a 30/30 right fielder.

 

Apparently he wants to play in the field so a team willimg to let him try might have a leg up.

 

Olney has said recently that the Jays do not plan to pursue him heavily. That being said, they had 8 or 10 front office personelle over there scouting him and apparently Dan Evans has been working on him for years and badly wants him. There have been many reports on how players love playing for the Jays passionate fanbase and representing the whole country. Maybe that (and taking over some joey bays endorsement deals) could be enough to sway him. He clearly is not all about the money.

Posted

 

BP Toronto‏

@BProToronto

 

A #BlueJays source opens up about the club's pursuit of Japanese phenom Shohei Otani. More: https://buff.ly/2f6eiAF

 

Interesting. This definitely sounds more promising.

Posted
Interesting. This definitely sounds more promising.

 

If you're not willing to get into crazy money you're not getting him. Im not saying we should, but this is really a non-story for me.

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