Trade Josh Donaldson?

[jays_fever]

What's the point of having an MVP type player if the rest of your team is ass. Gotta rebuild this mother.

 

He's incredibly fun as a player for me to watch? lol that's all I said and people are taking it as if I think prospects are useless.

[Governator]

He's incredibly fun as a player for me to watch? lol that's all I said and people are taking it as if I think prospects are useless.

 

 

I'd rather have an incredibly fun team to watch for years.

[jays_fever]

I'd rather have an incredibly fun team to watch for years.

 

And the prospects we get for Donaldson are going to guarantee that? You guys are drinking the prospect cool aid way to hard

[wamco]

Agreed

[Jimcanuck]

And the prospects we get for Donaldson are going to guarantee that? You guys are drinking the prospect cool aid way to hard

 

not really. we just know the key component to building a winner is through the draft, farm system

 

building a winner through free agency and trading prospects is possible, but short lived

[Angrioter]

Bautista prime for Profar or Dom Brown

[Daniel Labude]

I'm surprised I'm the only one who voted to sign him. We'll probably never have another MVP type player on this team in the next 10 years

 

Trade him now...sign him in a year and a half!

[bones10]

Except the Jays would be paying him for his past rather than what they expect in the future. Aka, why Tulo makes $20mm a year right now and why the Jays would dump him for a ham sandwich if any team was willing to take his salary.

 

Please dont ever compare JD to Tulo.

[baubau]

Please dont ever compare JD to Tulo.

 

JD, like Tulo, is white.

 

http://weknowmemes.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/fight-me-u-lil-bitch.jpg

[bones10]

JD, like Tulo, is white.

 

http://weknowmemes.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/fight-me-u-lil-bitch.jpg

 

Tulo, unlike JD, is an over payed, overrated, often-injured, baseball player.

[glory]

Please dont ever compare JD to Tulo.

 

He didn't have Donaldson's peak, but six 5.0+ WAR seasons in his 20's is pretty damn good.

 

He got his contract for what he did in the past, and it turns out, players do in fact decline when they get older.

[KingKat]

Tulo, unlike JD, is an over payed, overrated, often-injured, baseball player.

 

Tulo is not overrated, he's just past his prime. Donaldson will be too some day (and probably fairly soon if not already).

[Brownie19]

Bautista prime for Profar or Dom Brown

 

Can we trade Jose for Profar now? I guess not b/c of the Texas BS. Too bad.

[Abomination]

Tulo is not overrated, he's just past his prime. Donaldson will be too some day (and probably fairly soon if not already).

 

Certainly he's past his prime, but I'm not sure that's the main driving factor. I don't have home/road splits on pitches for when he was in Coors to know how much that played into it, but there's some really interesting numbers from the past few years.

 

Tulo typically has murdered the fastball. Since 2009, the years he's had the most trouble have all coincided with fairly large increases in fastball movement he's faced, with this year having by far the most vertical AND horizontal movement yet. Similarly with the slider, there's also a sharp change in movement this year, and Tulo's numbers versus it have dropped drastically. I haven't dived into it far enough to do a proper analysis, but I did find it really interesting.

[Brownie19]

Certainly he's past his prime, but I'm not sure that's the main driving factor. I don't have home/road splits on pitches for when he was in Coors to know how much that played into it, but there's some really interesting numbers from the past few years.

 

Tulo typically has murdered the fastball. Since 2009, the years he's had the most trouble have all coincided with fairly large increases in fastball movement he's faced, with this year having by far the most vertical AND horizontal movement yet. Similarly with the slider, there's also a sharp change in movement this year, and Tulo's numbers versus it have dropped drastically. I haven't dived into it far enough to do a proper analysis, but I did find it really interesting.

 

I would render a guess that most hitters struggle when facing fastballs and sliders with more movement than normal.

 

wRC+ is park adjusted (I believe) and he put up a lot of seasons between 130 and 170 while in Colorado - although that's not to say the confidence/success he had there didn't help his overall numbers.

[Jimcanuck]

Eye test says Tulo simply struggling to catch up to fastballs, movement or no movement.

 

Should have moved him the offseason after he was acquired, like I kept telling ya all.

[Abomination]

I would render a guess that most hitters struggle when facing fastballs and sliders with more movement than normal.

 

Quite likely, but they may not all equally. It seems like more than just a coincidence. It also seems like league wide, the fastball movement hasn't changed as much (but the slider sure has). It could be the particular pitchers we have in our division that are mostly responsible for it.

[Governator]

Eye test says Tulo simply struggling to catch up to fastballs, movement or no movement.

 

Should have moved him the offseason after he was acquired, like I kept telling ya all.

 

I'd say Tulo was a big reason we made the postseason last year. If memory serves me right, he went on a 3 month tear hitting the ball while playing outstanding D. Replacing his production with Goins would have sunk us out of the WC no doubt. There's still a good chance he has a solid second half and becomes more movable in the off season. He also has a no trade clause and probably couldn't have been moved regardless knowing he was already on a contender.

[Jimcanuck]

I'd say Tulo was a big reason we made the postseason last year. If memory serves me right, he went on a 3 month tear hitting the ball while playing outstanding D. Replacing his production with Goins would have sunk us out of the WC no doubt. There's still a good chance he has a solid second half and becomes more movable in the off season. He also has a no trade clause and probably couldn't have been moved regardless knowing he was already on a contender.

 

He was good June/July 2016, very average or below average other months. Below average offensively for the year, ending up at 2.8 WAR from defense.

 

As I said back then, it didn't have to be Goins as the replacement.

[Governator]

He was good June/July 2016, very average or below average other months. Below average offensively for the year, ending up at 2.8 WAR from defense.

 

As I said back then, it didn't have to be Goins as the replacement.

 

 

Tulo put up 4 wins above Goins and again, he very likely couldn't be traded regardless.

[TholesWeirdEye]

Eye test says Tulo simply struggling to catch up to fastballs, movement or no movement.

 

Should have moved him the offseason after he was acquired, like I kept telling ya all.

 

Who's going to take that contract?

[Abomination]

Who's going to take that contract?

 

I wonder if the Tigers would swap him and Verlander? They'd save some money assuming Verlander's last year becomes guaranteed, and might have an easier time moving Tulo's contract later if they chose to considering Tulo's reasonable final year.

 

Verlander would be an upgrade to our rotation, even with his struggles.

[burlingtonbandit]

He was good June/July 2016, very average or below average other months. Below average offensively for the year, ending up at 2.8 WAR from defense.

 

As I said back then, it didn't have to be Goins as the replacement.

 

If he had regular batted ball luck he would have been a 4Win player.

[Slade]

I wonder if the Tigers would swap him and Verlander? They'd save some money assuming Verlander's last year becomes guaranteed, and might have an easier time moving Tulo's contract later if they chose to considering Tulo's reasonable final year.

 

Verlander would be an upgrade to our rotation, even with his struggles.

 

I don't think Detroit even considers it of the two Verlander is always going to be more valuable. His contract is also worth less assuming his 2020 option doesn't vest which requires him to be in the top 5 for a Cy Young in 2019 and if he is in top 5 you have him again. If Detroit was interested in trading Verlander I'm sure they wouldn't have to take a bad contract back.

[Spanky99]

It ain't happening...

[Spanky99]

/Thread

[wk680]

That is correct. He was an MVP. There's a very very slim chance he ever approaches that again. You'd be signing a depreciating asset....which, I mean, isn't a terrible thing - but only if you do it at the right price...and it's extremely unlikely you could sign him based on what he'll be (as someone will overpay).

 

It was thought that someone would 'overpay" for Encarnacion, but that never happened. Between the FA experiences of EE and JB along with some others this past offseason, Donaldson may be willing to listen to reason, not a silly agent or MLBPA or whoever else may want to talk him into holding out for a king's ransom.

 

Trading Donaldson could easily fit into a retool if he brings back a near MLB ready 3B like Devers. Unless JD signs a team friendly contract in the offseason (and I don't see why he would) shopping him to see what's out there is sensible.

 

Obligatory everyone is available for the right price, but I'd be disappointed if any of Stroman, Sanchez or Osuna were traded.

 

Question is what is a team friendly contract in this case? I was thinking that IF he can have a good finish to this season, and the Jays intend to try to remain competitive in 2018, while infusing youth to the roster in a step-wise manner, they should make a run at signing Donaldson. I would offer him 4 years / $125M (starting in 2018) with a 5th year option for $30M or $5M buyout.

[bones10]

Tulo is not overrated, he's just past his prime. Donaldson will be too some day (and probably fairly soon if not already).

 

I mean the guy played like what, one full season ever? I'd say hes def overrated by a lot by casuals in the time that we've had him.

[John_Havok]

It was thought that someone would 'overpay" for Encarnacion, but that never happened. Between the FA experiences of EE and JB along with some others this past offseason, Donaldson may be willing to listen to reason, not a silly agent or MLBPA or whoever else may want to talk him into holding out for a king's ransom.

 

There's a lot of differences between the upcoming Donaldson situation, an the EE and JB situations of last year which would make it far more likely that someone pays for Donaldson rather than those other 2.

 

Most notably, Donaldson still plays great D at a pretty important position , is younger and can reliably be projected around 20+ WAR over his next 5 seasons assuming health.

[wk680]

There's a lot of differences between the upcoming Donaldson situation, an the EE and JB situations of last year which would make it far more likely that someone pays for Donaldson rather than those other 2.

 

Most notably, Donaldson still plays great D at a pretty important position , is younger and can reliably be projected around 20+ WAR over his next 5 seasons assuming health.

 

OK 20 WAR (an optimistic outcome) at about $8M per, is worth about $160M. My suggestion of a contract that could get him $155M is in line with that. If someone else is willing to overpay above that, they would be pretty foolish. If the Jays can't sign him this offseason, they should definitely try hard to trade him.