Trade for Yasiel Puig (NJH #5)

[Laika]

This will be the fifth of many offseason threads where I'll take a stance and advocate for the Blue Jays to make (or not make) a specific move.

I may not actually think Toronto should make every move, but I'll lay out the case for it in order to generate discussion.

 

Toronto should trade for Yazl Pweeg

 

Yasiel Puig is one of the most popular, famous, exciting, gif-worthy, and most importantly, talented players in Major League Baseball.

 

He is an other-worldly physical talent and a social media genius #PuigYourFriend.

 

In 2013 he took the baseball world by storm: .398 wOBA, 4.1 fWAR (in 432 PA), highlight after highlight.

In 2014 he showed no obvious signs of slowing down and his BB and K rates were actually a bit better. He ended up with 5.4 fWAR in a full season. He was a franchise player.

 

Puig only spent 40 games in AA in 2013 before zooming up to Los Angeles, but even with limited looks at the Cuban defector scouts weren't shy to put tags on him like "cathedral ceiling" and "Bo Jackson". All of his tools were earning scouting grades in the 60-80 range. Jason Parks of BP also loved him but was slightly more tepid, giving Puig only an average future hit tool and opining that the speed would only play as average at best due to his linebacker body.

 

But Puig is a magnet for drama. In 2013 he was arrested TWICE for reckless driving after going 100mph and doubling the speed limit. Questions about his makeup and maturity have been pervasive since his first day in the big leagues (he was given number 66 in reference to 666, el Diablo - his reputation preceded him). Ex-teammates have said that he is "the worst person in baseball", outside executives have said anonymously that Puig is a clubhouse nightmare and the Dodgers have been open to trading him since his rookie year. In 2015 a current Dodgers player said about trading Puig, ""We've talked about this... At this point, it would be addition by subtraction." Puig has been fined and disciplined by his own team multiple times. Reportedly, he is frequently lazy, doesn't work hard, and clashes with teammates. This past year he was demoted and immediately posted snapchats partying in AAA after a meaningless win.

 

Ironically, Puig has managed to endear himself to baseball fans while burning bridges with his colleagues. Aside from Dodgers fans frustrated with his performance and last-gen baseball fans who still get their news in print, baseball fans in general seem to absolutely adore Yasiel. His childish personality might have something to do with this.

 

There have also been chronic injury issues. It seems like Puig strains his hamstring a couple of times every year, necessitating a trip to the DL.

 

And perhaps these character cracks and injuries have truly affected his performance.

 

From 2015 to 2016 he was just the 69th best OUTFIELDER, minimum 600 PA, in baseball. With just 2.5 fWAR in 679 MLB PA across those two years he was barely an average player.

 

His wRC+ plummeted from 150+ to the 107 range. His plate discipline numbers got much worse: his K-BB% fell from 8.9% in 2014 to 13.6% in 2016.

 

His performance has fallen off a cliff.

 

In some ways, the drop in production may have been predictable and it might have less to do with attitude, injuries, and makeup than people think. Puig's BABIP marks in 2013 and 2014 were .383 and .356 - extremely lofty figures that had people with basic baseball statistical acumen calling for significant regression to the mean. His BABIP the last two years has been right around .300, the rough league average.

This is a neat little narrative but it might be an oversimplification. Puig was getting plus and double plus grades on his hit tool while he was beasting and he was a spray hitter with serious power and decent speed. It wouldn't have been weird to see his true-talent BABIP fall into the .350 range, alongside elite hitter like Trout, Miggy, and Votto. And that's certainly what Puig looked like - an elite hitter.

 

The Dodgers have fallen short of playoff glory the last few years, and are clearly frustrated with Puig. They have the names on their depth chart to piece together a viable outfield without Yasiel; Joc Pederson, Andrew Toles, Andre Ethier, Trayce Thompson, Kike Hernandez, Rob Segedin. Adding a right handed hitting platoon OF might be all they need, if Puig leaves the fold.

 

Puig projects for 3.3 fWAR next year. His projection would probably have as much variance as anyone in baseball.

He is under control for two more full seasons and owed just 6.5M in 2017 and 7.5M in 2018.

He has significant value on paper, although it is extremely difficult to peg how MLB GMs would factor his externalities into his value.

 

Clearly Toronto needs corner outfielders.

Is Yasiel Puig a damaged goods landmine, or the buy-low opportunity of a GM's lifetime?

 

It's hard not to think that getting Puig out of Los Angeles would be good for him. If you buy the media consensus that he has the mind of a 16 year old, then less distractions would be great. If you don't care about the spin about his mental makeup, then a change of scenery could still be a great thing for a 26 year old who has taken a couple of steps backwards in his baseball development.

 

His flashy personality might even fit in OK on the Blue Jays, where Marcus Stroman is unabashedly trying to start a personal fashion brand with his fame and Josh Donaldson is a loud-as-hell, in-your-face dirtbag.

 

Personally, I think Puig's swing has undergone some mechanical adjustments or declines in the last couple of years that are at least partially responsible for his poor performance. The below two gifs come from when Puig was good and when he sucked, respectively.

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/PuigIn1.gif

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/PuigIn2.gif

 

I'm not a scout or a hitting coach but I follow a handful of them on the twitter so listen to me here. Puig is loading earlier and loading differently in the first swing. In the second gif he loads later and he's not ready to hit. I think his swing is also flatter, and I think he's been making concerted efforts in his MLB career to keep his front elbow down to avoid "chicken-winging" - this is a cue that mistaken hitting coaches give to keep swings from upper-cutting, on the false pretense that flat swings are objectively good. Puig should be loading early and swinging for damage - just like the Blue Jays core hitters of the last half decade. He's a f***ing athlete, let him swing like a f***ing athlete god dammit.

 

So what would he cost? Well, the Dodgers are shrewd and they know what he's worth on paper. They also know that they would be selling low, and they don't HAVE to trade him. But there is significant buzz to indicate that they are open to the idea, and last year during the waiver-trade deadline period there was nearly an expectation that he would get dealt to fuel their playoff run.

 

The thing with the Dodgers depth chart is that they don't really need anything. I'm sure they would be happy to absorb even more prospect capital and make some incremental upgrades on their team. One thing that might be lacking from their longer-term depth chart is a real CF. Joc Pederson has been adequate but he might not have the body or profile to stay in CF long term. Maybe a package could start with Anthony Alford. Or, if the Dodgers fail to bring back Kenley Jansen or land another big RP in free agency, they could have interest in Osuna.

 

Governator made a great point:

 

I think we'd all be on board acquiring Puig but I think the cost here is interesting. If LA aren't able to re-sign Rich Hill it seems they'd be after an ace this off-season and they have the resources to acquire pretty much the best trade arm available (Sale/Archer/Verlander). So it's probably in their best interest to keep Puig as an option for that package before moving him for prospects. Just my thought.

 

Toronto might have to get creative or get involved in a 3-way to land this guy.

 

There is enough information here to see that Yasiel Puig is still extremely intriguing. Every "reason" that he has been underperforming couples as a factor that could be corrected so that he'll return to being a five tool behemoth.

 

This guy is 26 years old. He still has that cathedral ceiling that was visible in his first two seasons. He has two cheap years of control left. Change the scenery, fix the swing, profit.

 

Trade for Yasiel Puig.

 

#MakeYasielGreatAgain

#MYGA

 

Edited November 26, 2016 by Laika

[Jonn]

Would love to have Puig. Problem is the Dodgers are asking for a ton and they destroyed his value repeatedly. They are going to have to accept an L at some point. Hope we are the team that benefits.

[Dr. Dinger]

Into it.

[Pendleton]

I'd be in favor of this depending on the price.

[Governator]

I think we'd all be on board acquiring Puig but I think the cost here is interesting. If LA aren't able to re-sign Rich Hill it seems they'd be after an ace this off-season and they have the resources to acquire pretty much the best trade arm available (Sale/Archer/Verlander). So it's probably in their best interest to keep Puig as an option for that package before moving him for prospects. Just my thought.

[JG34]

Yes plz

[Laika]

I think we'd all be on board acquiring Puig but I think the cost here is interesting. If LA aren't able to re-sign Rich Hill it seems they'd be after an ace this off-season and they have the resources to acquire pretty much the best trade arm available (Sale/Archer/Verlander). So it's probably in their best interest to keep Puig as an option for that package before moving him for prospects. Just my thought.

 

I think you're correct. If Toronto REALLY wants to get Puig it might take some creativity and a 3-way trade, or a follow up trade, with the team that can give LA that top end arm.

[Jimcanuck]

Very risky, can he get by on talent alone if he doesn't care enough to put the work in?

 

Risk - reward decision. What are you willing to give up for him, NJH?

[Gary]

I'd love to see it, but Gibby wouldn't have the patience for Puig. $100 says they'd get into a fist fight within the first 60 games.

[Frenchsoup]

Maybe in 5 years when he matures

[Dr. Dinger]

Maybe in 5 years when he matures

 

He'll be out of baseball by then

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Back in the Real World.... Not gonna happen ya'll !!!

 

Dreamer ... Ain't nothing but a Dreamer.

 

Book it ... End of Thread!!! Lol

 

Have a Nice Day!!! Go Jays Go !!!

[L54]

I think derp

[jays_fever]

Is Ryan McBroom an actual player lol

[wamco]

Agreed

[Brownie19]

You forgot to give him a leg kick for Christmas...

[Laika]

You forgot to give him a leg kick for Christmas...

 

I see flaws in his legs, actually.

 

In the first gif you'll notice that the back foot comes off the ground and moves back a few inches. You want this to happen!

 

In the second swing he is trying to "squash the bug" and his foot stays on the dirt and turns. Ugh. A terrible cue.

 

His front leg also stays elevated a bit more in the first swing.

[Dr. Dinger]

I see flaws in his legs, actually.

 

In the first gif you'll notice that the back foot comes off the ground and moves back a few inches. You want this to happen!

 

In the second swing he is trying to "squash the bug" and his foot stays on the dirt and turns. Ugh. A terrible cue.

 

His front leg also stays elevated a bit more in the first swing.

 

He should look at some tape of breakout masher Ryon Healy.

[SAAviour]

I think JD and Tulo could teach him about being a professional and things like studying video.

I bet with his talent he has a monster year or two before his next pay day as well, it's amazing how the prospect of $20 mil a year could motivate an immature talent like Puig.

I'm for acquiring him even though it's a big gamble. He'd be a great Bautista replacement in right field. Then sign Bautista or EE for first base and we're golden.

[Brownie19]

I don't think you post 160 and 148 wRC+ seasons at age 22 and 23 and then completely turn into a pumpkin. He's exactly the type of player we should try and acquire. However, it's a bit two fold. You might be able to get him at a reasonable price due to his off-field issues....but the off-field issues are the only reason he's available in the first place.

 

If many opine it would take Stroman to get Eaton (who's been significantly better over the past 2 years and is under control longer, at a reasonable rate), then is it safe to assume the cost for Puig should be SIGNIFICANTLY less? There in lies the true x-factor in this entire discussion. Puig's ceiling is higher, but if the cost is near equal - you take Eaton 100% of the time.

[fatcowxlive]

I'll be honest I didn't read the post, but that picture in the end of the post sold me on your idea

[saskjayfan]

I see flaws in his legs, actually.

 

In the first gif you'll notice that the back foot comes off the ground and moves back a few inches. You want this to happen!

 

In the second swing he is trying to "squash the bug" and his foot stays on the dirt and turns. Ugh. A terrible cue.

 

His front leg also stays elevated a bit more in the first swing.

 

What do you learn about a guys swing from two gifs....absolutely nothing. The first swing his timing was better, the second his lower half was quick and he was way out in front. There's a lot to like about Puig's swing. He doesn't have a long looping swing. There are some thing professional hitting coaches and players for that matter could work with him on and he could have a big turn around. His natural gifts are undeniable and the foundation of his swing is pretty solid. A couple minor tweaks could be all he needs to get back on track. Let's leave those tweaks to the professionals.

[Laika]

What do you learn about a guys swing from two gifs....absolutely nothing. The first swing his timing was better, the second his lower half was quick and he was way out in front. There's a lot to like about Puig's swing. He doesn't have a long looping swing. There are some thing professional hitting coaches and players for that matter could work with him on and he could have a big turn around. His natural gifts are undeniable and the foundation of his swing is pretty solid. A couple minor tweaks could be all he needs to get back on track. Let's leave those tweaks to the professionals.

 

No, if I'm not personally allowed to overhaul Puig's swing then they aren't allowed to trade for him. This is a deal breaker for me.

[Jimcanuck]

No, if I'm not personally allowed to overhaul Puig's swing then they aren't allowed to trade for him. This is a deal breaker for me.

 

Who would you give up for him?

[Atothe]

Who would you give up for him?

 

Certainty more than Anthony Alford lol, wtf Todd

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Who would you give up for him?

 

I would give nothing and Doubt that the Jays and Shatkins will either!

[Jimcanuck]

Who would you give up for him?

 

C'mon NJH, it's not enough to simply say.... the Jays should target this guy or that guy.

 

One could make a similar post about dozens upon dozens of MLB'ers.

[GD]

C'mon NJH, it's not enough to simply say.... the Jays should target this guy or that guy.

 

One could make a similar post about dozens upon dozens of MLB'ers.

 

Lazy liberal Jim always wanting people to do work for him smh

[Jimcanuck]

Lazy liberal Jim always wanting people to do work for him smh

 

Holding the OP to account

[Laika]

Who would you give up for him?

 

I discussed this in the piece. I mentioned Alford and/or Osuna as possible centrepieces but also stated that Los Angeles' needs are few and they don't line up with Toronto so it's tough to speculate.

 

I don't see the point in making a full hypothetical.