EE thread

[TheHurl]

They have less than $40M committed on the books this year after spending $86M last year. You could probably bump that up to $88-90M. They have a lot of money to spend and they're wide open at 1B/DH.

 

 

It's a solid call. They are building the team around power and pitching once again. I was thinking about my Bold Prediction for the year and I had the A's leading the AL in Starters ERA as one prediction. I like the depth they are building and it wouldn't surprise me if they are a 2018 contender.

[ensco]

Sandoval was entering his age-28 season. Cespedes was entering his age-30 season. Edwin is entering his age-34 season.

 

But when you look at what Sandoval projected to be over the next 5 years... I mean his peak year was 25 HRs or something. That's what EE will probably hit in year 4, even with the age impact.

 

I get that good 3B play has value EE doesn't bring, but Sandoval aged 31 isn't projecting out to be remotely close to EE as a hitter aged 37.

 

I only raise Cespedes because it's clear that the price of eggs for this kind of player in his prime is $25M per year

 

I think the 4/80 benchmark is wishful thinking. He will get more. Maybe a lot more. Not Davis money though (I agree Davis is worth more, but there is some injury risk with Davis).

 

I think the 5/110 people have it about right, (3x25, 1x20, 1x15), but it could go higher.

Edited November 16, 2016 by ensco

[LGBJ29]

But when you look at what Sandoval projected to be over the next 5 years... I mean his peak year was 25 HRs or something. That's what EE will probably hit in year 4, even with the age impact.

 

I get that good 3B play has value EE doesn't bring, but Sandoval aged 31 isn't projecting out to be remotely close to EE as a hitter aged 37.

 

I only raise Cespedes because it's clear that the price of eggs for this kind of player in his prime is $25M per year

 

I think the 4/80 benchmark is wishful thinking. He will get more. Maybe a lot more. Not Davis money though (I agree Davis is worth more, but there is some injury risk with Davis).

 

I think the 5/110 people have it about right, (3x25, 1x20, 1x15), but it could go higher.

 

I dont think using the Sandoval contract as a measurable is wise for you. He crashed and burned, that contract is an albatross, something the Jays surely want to avoid. His projections are moot at this point. As mentioned, Cespedes was 4 years younger (at time of contract) and was a + defender in the outfield, and still only signed for 3 years.

[Dr. Dinger]

Why would they do that?

 

Because they have a lot of payroll to spend and can be competitive this year with a couple key additions. Beane doesn't really do full strip-down rebuilds.

[Brownie19]

But when you look at what Sandoval projected to be over the next 5 years... I mean his peak year was 25 HRs or something. That's what EE will probably hit in year 4, even with the age impact.

 

I get that good 3B play has value EE doesn't bring, but Sandoval aged 31 isn't projecting out to be remotely close to EE as a hitter aged 37.

 

I only raise Cespedes because it's clear that the price of eggs for this kind of player in his prime is $25M per year

 

I think the 4/80 benchmark is wishful thinking. He will get more. Maybe a lot more. Not Davis money though (I agree Davis is worth more, but there is some injury risk with Davis).

 

I think the 5/110 people have it about right, (3x25, 1x20, 1x15), but it could go higher.

 

Welcome to the board. You're going to get lambasted on here if you keep citing HRs to compare hitters.

[Brownie19]

Why would they do that? They're in the middle of a rebuild. If I'm them I'm using that money towards player development where your ROI is wayy higher. Or take on a bad contract for a comp. balance pick/prosect.

 

If an international draft gets put in for next year you actually want to lose more too. Huge advantage to having the top few picks.

 

Shouldn't they be trying to sign up some of the middling FA's who won't command big years or dollars so they can deal them at the trade deadline for prospect porn? If I'm them, I'm targeting Reddick (assuming it's a reasonable 3 year deal), Gomez, Joyce, Logan, Castro, Pearce, Valbuena, Coghlan, Cashner, Morton and every other left handed reliever on the market.

[burlingtonbandit]

Because they have a lot of payroll to spend and can be competitive this year with a couple key additions. Beane doesn't really do full strip-down rebuilds.

 

Yeah but then after they win 75-80 games you are stuck with Edwin's bad years so I don't see the point in that. They've basically done that exact thing for 2 years now and the franchise's outlook doesn't look any better than it did. Its time to tear it down and rebuild.

 

In the market I'm not sure the fan support is going to be all that better with a low 80s win team compared to a 70s win team. I think they are way better off in investing that $ in sports science, player development, FO executives than to make the team go from 72 to 78 wins.

[burlingtonbandit]

Shouldn't they be trying to sign up some of the middling FA's who won't command big years or dollars so they can deal them at the trade deadline for prospect porn? If I'm them, I'm targeting Reddick (assuming it's a reasonable 3 year deal), Gomez, Joyce, Logan, Castro, Pearce, Valbuena, Coghlan, Cashner, Morton and every other left handed reliever on the market.

 

I don't think I would sign anyone to a 3 year deal but definitely the 1 year contracts like Hill signing last year. Seems like they can get pitchers to come there given their ballpark so I'd check in on the guys like Cashner who want to re-establish their value.

[Brownie19]

I wonder if Cashner could be dominant out of the pen....He passes the old eye test every time I see him.

[LGBJ29]

Out of curiosity I wanted to see what the chances were of Edwin's contract ending up like Pujols if he were to get 5 years. Around the same age their numbers are shockingly similar

 

Edwin age 33 season:

.263/.357/.529 -- wOBA .373 -- 134 wRC+ -- 3.9 WAR

 

Pujols age 32 season:

.285/.343/.516 -- wOBA .360 -- 133wRC+ -- 3.6 WAR

 

Pujols decline started strongly after his age 32 season. Now, not all players age so poorly as guys like Ortiz and Beltran hit well into their late 30's. However, going north of 20M is a scary thought for any team with how quickly it could go sour.

[ensco]

Welcome to the board. You're going to get lambasted on here if you keep citing HRs to compare hitters.

 

Thanks. I know. Long time lurker. It happened to be a close proxy, in this particular case.

 

I should have used WAR because it just makes the point more clearly - EE has a higher WAR than Cespedes (or Davis did last year)

 

I think the issue of age related dropoff is pretty significant in 30 year olds also, as the Pujols post noted.

[ensco]

I dont think using the Sandoval contract as a measurable is wise for you. He crashed and burned, that contract is an albatross, something the Jays surely want to avoid. His projections are moot at this point. As mentioned, Cespedes was 4 years younger (at time of contract) and was a + defender in the outfield, and still only signed for 3 years.

 

Sorry but the Sandoval contract is a meaningful data point. It's what the market was recently, for a player with question marks (Sandoval's issues were well known pre the contract), when multiple teams bid.

 

The fact that Sandoval was a bust is a point, sure, but there is no evidence that the market pricing structure has changed (in fact, it's probably more insane in competitive situations, ie Price last year)

[Governator]

Out of curiosity I wanted to see what the chances were of Edwin's contract ending up like Pujols if he were to get 5 years. Around the same age their numbers are shockingly similar

 

Edwin age 33 season:

.263/.357/.529 -- wOBA .373 -- 134 wRC+ -- 3.9 WAR

 

Pujols age 32 season:

.285/.343/.516 -- wOBA .360 -- 133wRC+ -- 3.6 WAR

 

Pujols decline started strongly after his age 32 season. Now, not all players age so poorly as guys like Ortiz and Beltran hit well into their late 30's. However, going north of 20M is a scary thought for any team with how quickly it could go sour.

 

 

 

Anything is plausible but there is a massive risk difference between a 10 year contract that doesn't end until a player is 42 and a 4 or 5 yr contract that ends at 37/38... but yea any contract > $20M over 5 years+ obviously comes with a big risk when players are already in their 30s.

 

I also don't think it's fair to bring up the worst value to contract in the bigs as a comparison. Beltre signed a 5 year deal at age 32 and provided 5+ WAR throughout the contract.

[LGBJ29]

Sorry but the Sandoval contract is a meaningful data point. It's what the market was recently, for a player with question marks (Sandoval's issues were well known pre the contract), when multiple teams bid.

 

The fact that Sandoval was a bust is a point, sure, but there is no evidence that the market pricing structure has changed (in fact, it's probably more insane in competitive situations, ie Price last year)

 

My point is using the worst contract in baseball doesn't strengthen your argument regarding EE's value

[Brownie19]

Thanks. I know. Long time lurker. It happened to be a close proxy, in this particular case.

 

I should have used WAR because it just makes the point more clearly - EE has a higher WAR than Cespedes (or Davis did last year)

I think the issue of age related dropoff is pretty significant in 30 year olds also, as the Pujols post noted.

 

But Cespedes and Davis were both coming off a 6.3 and a 5.6 WAR season when they were FA's. Edwin is steady Eddie around 4 WAR. Cespedes and Davis were younger and coming off much better years (Davis was also 1 year removed from a 7 WAR season), which explains why Cesepedes got $25M AAV and Davis got $23M AAV. That alone almost proves that EE should be in the $20M AAV range.

[LGBJ29]

Anything is plausible but there is a massive risk difference between a 10 year contract that doesn't end until a player is 42 and a 4 or 5 yr contract that ends at 37/38... but yea any contract > $20M over 5 years+ obviously comes with a big risk when players are already in their 30s.

 

I also don't think it's fair to bring up the worst value to contract in the bigs as a comparison. Beltre signed a 5 year deal at age 32 and provided 5+ WAR throughout the contract.

 

I wasn't trying to say Edwin's contract could become as ugly as Pujols, my point was identifying they had near identical seasons around the same age when Pujols really started to decline, emphasizing the potential risk for the next 4-5 years at a high AAV

I literally used Beltran as an example as the other end of the spectrum at the end of my post?

 

Edit: you said Beltre, my bad. The difference with Beltre is that a lot of his value comes from his defence. He was a steady 130 wRC+ guy (which to his credit he maintained). Edwin is more one-dimensional and last year we saw a reasonable dip in his wRC+ and an inflated K%

[fatcowxlive]

Sandoval was entering his age-28 season. Cespedes was entering his age-30 season. Edwin is entering his age-34 season.

 

And Cespedes -- who's closer to Edwins age can play defence as well. I feel like Edwin is getting looked at as a full time DH who can spot at 1B, so the demand from teams drops from a potential of 30 (Cespedes) to 15, less buyers = less money.

 

Actually now that I wrote it out I'm surprised Cespedes got only $5M more than what we offered Edwin on a shorter term, what we gave would be in tune with the market and more than fair. How about this, for arguments sake if you had to choose one, would you take Cespedes at 3/75 (no opt-out lets say) in his age 30 season or Edwin at 4/80 entering age 34 season? Bias aside I think I'd take Cespedes, even at lets say 4/$100

[ensco]

But Cespedes and Davis were both coming off a 6.3 and a 5.6 WAR season when they were FA's. Edwin is steady Eddie around 4 WAR. Cespedes and Davis were younger and coming off much better years (Davis was also 1 year removed from a 7 WAR season), which explains why Cesepedes got $25M AAV and Davis got $23M AAV. That alone almost proves that EE should be in the $20M AAV range.

 

Davis was one year removed from a 0.8 WAR (but I totally get that you get paid for "recency")

 

I'll put it another way - it's just about whether there is an auction or not. I think there is. I'm convinced that there will be enough interest, real and perceived, from the free spending teams like the Red Sox, that Eddie will get the high end.

[Spanky99]

If the Birds offered 4/80 that's more than fair... Good Luck EE!

[Spanky99]

If the Birds offered 4/80 that's more than fair... Good Luck EE!

 

In saying that^^^ Kizler/Kinzler(SP?) was shown on SN tonight, and said the door isn't closed, and never said if the rumoured numbers were true of false, but did say EE wants to come back and loves T.O(they're still talking), where he wants to be... please EE sign it up, bro! We love you too!

[Spanky99]

If we offered 4/80 for EE then we have to at least be kicking the tires on Cespedes.

 

One would think.

[ensco]

btw for any player that a team in Texas, Florida, Arizona want, given the relative tax rate ... the Jays start with a ~25-30% disadvantage,

 

If EE is offered 5/100 from Texas or Miami, Jays need to be at 5/125 or something to match

 

Seeing what Reddick got definitely makes me think EE will blast through $25M AAV btw. Reddick got 25-50% more in total dollars than he would have got 2-3 years ago. The market is just insane.

[Governator]

btw for any player that a team in Texas, Florida, Arizona want, given the relative tax rate ... the Jays start with a ~25-30% disadvantage,

 

If EE is offered 5/100 from Texas or Miami, Jays need to be at 5/125 or something to match

 

Seeing what Reddick got definitely makes me think EE will blast through $25M AAV btw. Reddick got 25-50% more in total dollars than he would have got 2-3 years ago. The market is just insane.

 

Not how it works. I believe you pay your state tax based on residency where you live 6 months of the year. No surprise spring training is in FL and AZ. The season is literally 1 day shy of the threshold and even so your home games don't total 6 months. I think you also pay some tax per game so you pay to each state through the year but it's a far cry from 30% of guaranteed contract. It's a big misconception and why many players have their primary home of residence in AZ or FL.

 

Edit:. Also I don't know where you came with 25-30%? US federal tax is 40%, Canada's is 33%+13% for Ontario. It's a 6% difference between ours and a tax free state.

Edited November 18, 2016 by Governator

[saskjayfan]

One would think.

 

Time to sign EE, trade for votto or sign cespedes.

[Brownie19]

Not how it works. I believe you pay your state tax based on residency where you live 6 months of the year. No surprise spring training is in FL and AZ. The season is literally 1 day shy of the threshold and even so your home games don't total 6 months. I think you also pay some tax per game so you pay to each state through the year but it's a far cry from 30% of guaranteed contract. It's a big misconception and why many players have their primary home of residence in AZ or FL.

 

Edit:. Also I don't know where you came with 25-30%? US federal tax is 40%, Canada's is 33%+13% for Ontario. It's a 6% difference between ours and a tax free state.

 

Directly from the depths of his ass.

[Eye_corn]

Hi-You All-Long time reader.First time poster.I'm not much of a talker.I just like to get an opinion you wouldn't get elsewhere

But I got two cents here.Honestly the time to sign EE was last spring.They chose to gamble and lost.What would he have cost last spring.You will see him in another teams jersey on opening day.That is the way it goes.But that's not the way it had to go.Thanks Shapiro for playing craps with our star player.

[Krylian]

Hi-You All-Long time reader.First time poster.I'm not much of a talker.I just like to get an opinion you wouldn't get elsewhere

But I got two cents here.Honestly the time to sign EE was last spring.They chose to gamble and lost.What would he have cost last spring.You will see him in another teams jersey on opening day.That is the way it goes.But that's not the way it had to go.Thanks Shapiro for playing craps with our star player.

 

Maybe...but you could say that they gambled and won with not signing Bautista in the spring too.

 

Hindsight is....what do they say......20/20?

 

P.S. Welcome to the site.

[jays4life19]

Hi-You All-Long time reader.First time poster.I'm not much of a talker.I just like to get an opinion you wouldn't get elsewhere

But I got two cents here.Honestly the time to sign EE was last spring.They chose to gamble and lost.What would he have cost last spring.You will see him in another teams jersey on opening day.That is the way it goes.But that's not the way it had to go.Thanks Shapiro for playing craps with our star player.

 

Welcome!

It works both ways though. What if he gave Joey Bats a huge extension last spring...that wouldn't be looking so hot right now.

[jays4life19]

Dammit Krylian lol

[BTS]

Hi-You All-Long time reader.First time poster.I'm not much of a talker.I just like to get an opinion you wouldn't get elsewhere

But I got two cents here.Honestly the time to sign EE was last spring.They chose to gamble and lost.What would he have cost last spring.You will see him in another teams jersey on opening day.That is the way it goes.But that's not the way it had to go.Thanks Shapiro for playing craps with our star player.

 

Can you please use spaces after periods? Thx.