Should Osuna Start in 2017?

[dineke]

how much could we get for osuna in a trade...?

[BTS]

how much could we get for osuna in a trade...?

 

Recent comps are the Kimbrel and Giles trades. So lots.

[Governator]

Lol c'mon, a.) that doesn't have impact on who's better rn and b.) Who gives a s*** if he does? Appreciate what we have man.

 

I very much appreciate everything he does and will do but you don't think being stronger can impact performance? I'm not just referring to throwing a couple ticks harder, you can improve your stamina, balance, etc. not to mention experience. Is it possible Sanchez's off season workout contributed to some of his success?

[GD]

Recent comps are the Kimbrel and Giles trades. So lots.

 

Probably isn't worth it though. The holes we do have are probably fill-able by free agency fairly effectively and then our next biggest need is the bullpen anyway.

 

I very much appreciate everything he does and will do but you don't think being stronger can impact performance? I'm not just referring to throwing a couple ticks harder, you can improve your stamina, balance, etc. not to mention experience. Is it possible Sanchez's off season workout contributed to some of his success?

 

You are talking about his performance in the future. I am talking about his standing right now. Right now, he's not better than those 5-8 guys or w/e. Could he be in the context you're referring to? Of course.

 

We are agreeing but talking about two different things.

[BTS]

I very much appreciate everything he does and will do but you don't think being stronger can impact performance? I'm not just referring to throwing a couple ticks harder, you can improve your stamina, balance, etc. not to mention experience. Is it possible Sanchez's off season workout contributed to some of his success?

 

If I'm putting money on Osuna best days being either ahead of him or behind, I'm taking behind. Would anyone be surprised if his arm explodes?

[GD]

If I'm putting money on Osuna best days being either ahead of him or behind, I'm taking behind. Would anyone be surprised if his arm explodes?

 

I'd say it's probably random.

[Governator]

I'd say it's probably random.

 

Hey GD what's the best method to compare a closer's performance on a season by season basis? WPA? It seems like WAR isn't ideal. Just wondering how I can put a prop bet on Osuna having a better season over the next 3 years than what he's done so far in his career and the best way to judge it fairly.

[jays4life19]

Hey GD what's the best method to compare a closer's performance on a season by season basis? WPA? It seems like WAR isn't ideal. Just wondering how I can put a prop bet on Osuna having a better season over the next 3 years than what he's done so far in his career and the best way to judge it fairly.

 

Tips!

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2013/11/21/tips-a-new-era-estimator/

[Orgfiller]

Hey GD what's the best method to compare a closer's performance on a season by season basis? WPA? It seems like WAR isn't ideal. Just wondering how I can put a prop bet on Osuna having a better season over the next 3 years than what he's done so far in his career and the best way to judge it fairly.

 

The problem is the argument of how valuable context can be. WAR is great in that it eliminates context from the equation, just tells you how valuable the pitcher was, whether it was pitching 5-8 innings at a time, mopping up the mess from other starters or closing out critical games/pitching in almost exclusively high leverage. WPA and other similar context-based stats will tell you how much value the pitcher contributed when put into different indexes of leverage. This is where closers and similarly elite relievers will get a huge boost, because they usually pitch in the more valuable, game-changing high leverage situations.

 

Now, I don't know if any one of them is better than the other, a combination of both will probably be the optimal use here. However, something to consider is that a top tier reliever's WPA will basically be artificially boosted because they are generally inserted into the most important situations in a game. They got through that inning or that batter, which is great, but who's to say that a Joe Biagini couldn't have done that job more times than not rather than pitching the lower leverage mop up/trying to keep the lead/deficit to a max/min? This is how a guy like Zach Britton can have a higher WPA than every single American League pitcher, and every Nationa League pitcher, including Clayton Kershaw and other elite starters. Shouldn't that point to a flaw in context based stats? I think that's where we have to consider how much to take from each.

Edited October 23, 2016 by Orgfiller

[fatcowxlive]

Diaz, Kimbrel. Then there's a few guys in Osuna's tier who Osuna is probably better than but it's too close to definitively say.

 

Which isn't a slight to Osuna. He's awesome. Just shouldn't get carried away.

 

Kimberl since he left Atlanta is not better than Osuna for sure. This season he has a BB/9 of over 5, strikeouts are attractive but I don't think I can hate anything more than a walk late in a close game

[Spanky99]

The problem is the argument of how valuable context can be. WAR is great in that it eliminates context from the equation, just tells you how valuable the pitcher was, whether it was pitching 5-8 innings at a time, mopping up the mess from other starters or closing out critical games/pitching in almost exclusively high leverage. WPA and other similar context-based stats will tell you how much value the pitcher contributed when put into different indexes of leverage. This is where closers and similarly elite relievers will get a huge boost, but they usually pitch in the more valuable, game-changing high leverage situations.

 

Now, I don't know if any one of them is better than the other, a combination of both will probably be the optimal use here. However, something to consider is that a top tier reliever's WPA will basically be artificially boosted because they are generally inserted into the most important situations in a game. They got through that inning or that batter, which is great, but who's to say that a Joe Biagini couldn't have done that job more times than not rather than pitching the lower leverage mop up/trying to keep the lead/deficit to a max/min? This is how a guy like Zach Britton can have a higher WPA than every single American League pitcher, and every Nationa League pitcher, including Clayton Kershaw and other elite starters. Shouldn't that point to a flaw in context based stats? I think that's where we have to consider how much to take from each.

 

He asked specifically about closers.

[Orgfiller]

He asked specifically about closers.

 

Uh, okay. Well, the following relievers had a higher WPA than Kenley Jansen, in that order:

 

-Zach Britton

-Andrew Miller

-Sam Dyson

-Mark Melancon

-Jeremy Jeffress

-Roberto Osuna

-Aroldis Chapman

-Will Harris

-Seung Hwan Oh

-AJ Ramos

-Dan Otero

-Cody Allen

-Mychal Givens

-Christopher Devenski

-Tyler Thornburg

-Mauricio Cabrera

-Nate Jones

-Joe Blanton

-Jeurys Familia

-Robbie Ross Jr.

-Addison Reed

 

Notice also the lack of Dellin Betances and Edwin Diaz in that list. I think that should speak a bit about the reliability of WPA as a better tool of measuring reliever success during a season.

[Spanky99]

Uh, okay. Well, the following relievers had a higher WPA and than Kenley Jansen, in that order:

 

-Zach Britton

-Andrew Miller

-Sam Dyson

-Mark Melancon

-Jeremy Jeffress

-Roberto Osuna

-Aroldis Chapman

-Will Harris

-Seung Hwan Oh

-AJ Ramos

-Dan Otero

-Cody Allen

-Mychal Givens

-Christopher Devenski

-Tyler Thornburg

-Mauricio Cabrera

-Nate Jones

-Joe Blanton

-Jeurys Familia

-Robbie Ross Jr.

-Addison Reed

 

Right sorry(you're specifically talking about WPA), I said earlier in the thread, that I'd think using SIERA/xFIP/WPA and RE24, throw it in a plot, you'd end up with a telling story. (Lame, I know) I also forgot about TIPS. Well played, jays4life19.

[jaysblue]

Sergio Santos was a great closer when here.

[GD]

Hey GD what's the best method to compare a closer's performance on a season by season basis? WPA? It seems like WAR isn't ideal. Just wondering how I can put a prop bet on Osuna having a better season over the next 3 years than what he's done so far in his career and the best way to judge it fairly.

 

WAR is perfectly fine. The problem isn't how you evaluate the talent, it's the talent. Relievers are random.

[Spanky99]

WAR is perfectly fine. The problem isn't how you evaluate the talent, it's the talent. Relievers are random.

 

Am I wrong, then?

[Spanky99]

WPA and other similar context-based stats will tell you how much value the pitcher contributed when put into different indexes of leverage. This is where closers and similarly elite relievers will get a huge boost, but they usually pitch in the more valuable, game-changing high leverage situations.

 

Sorry Org, I also missed this, I've been up well over 24 hrs... we're saying the same thing(I think). My Derp.

[GD]

Am I wrong, then?

 

About what

[Orgfiller]

About what

 

Why did you change your pic you bastard, now I can't tell if it's you or SpeedyGose posting.

[Spanky99]

Is WAR really the best way to evaluate a relief pitcher?

 

Meh... it gives you a basic idea, but looking at SIERA/xFIP/WPA and RE24 would be more information/beneficial.

 

About what

 

That^^^ I forgot about TIPS, re-reading that article from JFAS was boner inducing.

[Spanky99]

Why did you change your pic you bastard, now I can't tell if it's you or SpeedyGose posting.

 

GD has the Goggles, simple, lol.

[dineke]

Kimberl since he left Atlanta is not better than Osuna for sure. This season he has a BB/9 of over 5, strikeouts are attractive but I don't think I can hate anything more than a walk late in a close game

 

Didn't know kimbrel was not kimbrel anymore. Great trade by boston lol.

[Governator]

So I would bet up to $50, if we have any degenerate gamblers on here, that Osuna will put up a more valuable season over the next 3 years than he has this year at 1.8 fWAR. Any takers?

 

Only 12 relievers put up 2 fWAR or greater this season and 9 of them were >10K/9 pitchers, unlike Osuna.

 

If you want to use a different stat to measure performance we can discuss that.

 

Edit we can use a 3rd party to judge it instead of using WAR to get a more accurate analysis.

[Spanky99]

So I would bet up to $50, if we have any degenerate gamblers on here, that Osuna will put up a more valuable season over the next 3 years than he has this year at 1.8 fWAR. Any takers?

 

Only 12 relievers put up 2 fWAR or greater this season and 9 of them were >10K/9 pitchers, unlike Osuna.

 

If you want to use a different stat to measure performance we can discuss that.

 

Edit we can use a 3rd party to judge it instead of using WAR to get a more accurate analysis.

 

http://i.imgur.com/FOwZ77O.gif

[GD]

That^^^ I forgot about TIPS, re-reading that article from JFAS was boner inducing.

 

Like not really. None of those stats are context adjusted so it's not really too different from just looking at FIP/xFIP. Some are better at looking at true talent but the year to year variance is still going to be high because the variance in true talent actually is high.

[Spanky99]

Like not really. None of those stats are context adjusted so it's not really too different from just looking at FIP/xFIP. Some are better at looking at true talent but the year to year variance is still going to be high because the variance in true talent actually is high.

 

So as the saying goes, RP's are volatile, gotcha. Even with elite relievers, top 5 or so?

[ElNik2013]

The biggest hurdle would be that he'd have to give up his save celebration, or would he celebrate after every 3rd out on an inning? We know complete games would be out of the question for awhile.

 

Tough one...

[King]

Ben Nicholson-Smith ‏@bnicholsonsmith 21s22 seconds ago

#BlueJays have no intention of stretching Roberto Osuna out as a starter next spring per Atkins

 

/thread

[L54]

Mods lock this bitch up

[BTS]

Yeah, it's over. Osuna will never start here.