Offseason Roster Thread 2016-17

[burlingtonbandit]

Anyone remember Gavin Floyd? Is he a write off at this point of does the team bring him back on a MiLB deal? I haven't seen his name mentioned anywhere.

 

I'd give him 1 or 2 Million to come back depending on his Lat injury. He's a good middle reliever and can provide some depth in the rotation.

[KingKat]

I'd give him 1 or 2 Million to come back depending on his Lat injury. He's a good middle reliever and can provide some depth in the rotation.

 

You'd give him another guaranteed contract? I don't think I would at this point but I'd be very interested in a MiLB deal.

[burlingtonbandit]

You'd give him another guaranteed contract? I don't think I would at this point but I'd be very interested in a MiLB deal.

 

I'd give him a million bucks if he's recovered from that injury last year. He had one of the highest whiff rates on the team.

[BlueJayWay]

Encarnacion might very well get 5/125 from someone. I wouldn't be surprised.

[BlueJayWay]

FWIW MLBTR predicts Edwin to go to Boston for 4 years, $92MM. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2016-17-top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions.html

[thatoneguy]

Holy s***... it was fun big guy! That ask is absurd.

 

Lol at the f***ing morons replying to that.

[Slade]

5/125 is exactly what I expected on the FA market. I'm sure teams will want the 5th year as an option but someone will give him a guaranteed 5th year.

[jaysguy44]

FWIW MLBTR predicts Edwin to go to Boston for 4 years, $92MM. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2016-17-top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions.html

 

Ew. I want no part of Jose

[Blitz]

I still think we're losing Joey & Edwin at this point... And Saunders isn't even qualified - so what's the thought on a guy like Josh Reddick for 3yrs @ 27-$30M to play RF???

[Slade]

Anyone have any interest in Lourdes Gurriel? Or will he get too much

 

I really hope we are looking into him but probably not.

[BlueJayWay]

That article has the Jays retaining Bautista and signing Morales as a DH. Morales doesn't have the draft pick attached.

[RealAccountant]

That article has the Jays retaining Bautista and signing Morales as a DH. Morales doesn't have the draft pick attached.

 

It seems disappointing that we wouldn't be in on anyone else

[RealAccountant]

Lol 3/33 for Saunders from Orioles

[Terminator]

Looking at mlbtraderumors predicted prices I would be interested to varying degrees in the following:

 

Aroldis Chapman – Five years, $90MM

Kenley Jansen – Five years, $85MM

Dexter Fowler – Four years, $64MM <--this would be a no brainer but I expect he gets closer to 90 mil

Jose Bautista – Three years, $51MM

Rich Hill – Yankees. Three years, $50MM

Josh Reddick – Giants. Three years, $36MM

Carlos Gomez – Three years, $36MM

Brett Cecil – Three years, $18MM

Brad Ziegler – Two years, $16MM

Jason Castro – Two years, $15MM <---assuming we could trade Martin)

Luis Valbuena – Two years, $14MM

Matt Holliday – One year, $10MM

Eric Thames – Two years, $10MM <---love this one

[Spanky99]

Lol at the f***ing morons replying to that.

 

No thanks, lol.

[Abomination]

Looking at mlbtraderumors predicted prices I would be interested to varying degrees in the following:

 

Aroldis Chapman – Five years, $90MM

Kenley Jansen – Five years, $85MM

Dexter Fowler – Four years, $64MM <--this would be a no brainer but I expect he gets closer to 90 mil

Jose Bautista – Three years, $51MM

Rich Hill – Yankees. Three years, $50MM

Josh Reddick – Giants. Three years, $36MM

Carlos Gomez – Three years, $36MM

Brett Cecil – Three years, $18MM

Brad Ziegler – Two years, $16MM

Jason Castro – Two years, $15MM <---assuming we could trade Martin)

Luis Valbuena – Two years, $14MM

Matt Holliday – One year, $10MM

Eric Thames – Two years, $10MM <---love this one

 

Outside of Chapman, Hill, and Jansen, those figures are WAY too low imo.

[Grant77]

Looking at mlbtraderumors predicted prices I would be interested to varying degrees in the following:

 

Aroldis Chapman – Five years, $90MM

Kenley Jansen – Five years, $85MM

Dexter Fowler – Four years, $64MM <--this would be a no brainer but I expect he gets closer to 90 mil

Jose Bautista – Three years, $51MM

Rich Hill – Yankees. Three years, $50MM

Josh Reddick – Giants. Three years, $36MM

Carlos Gomez – Three years, $36MM

Brett Cecil – Three years, $18MM

Brad Ziegler – Two years, $16MM

Jason Castro – Two years, $15MM <---assuming we could trade Martin)

Luis Valbuena – Two years, $14MM

Matt Holliday – One year, $10MM

Eric Thames – Two years, $10MM <---love this one

 

Not interested in Pearce, Joyce, or Beltran? I'm pretty iffy on that much for Gomez and 5 years for relievers, but I agree with the rest.

[Terminator]

Not interested in Pearce, Joyce, or Beltran? I'm pretty iffy on that much for Gomez and 5 years for relievers, but I agree with the rest.

 

Definitely interested in Pearce I've been tooting his horn all offseason I just missed him. Beltran at one for 14 is ok.

[burlingtonbandit]

Looking at mlbtraderumors predicted prices I would be interested to varying degrees in the following:

 

Aroldis Chapman – Five years, $90MM

Kenley Jansen – Five years, $85MM

Dexter Fowler – Four years, $64MM <--this would be a no brainer but I expect he gets closer to 90 mil

Jose Bautista – Three years, $51MM

Rich Hill – Yankees. Three years, $50MM

Josh Reddick – Giants. Three years, $36MM

Carlos Gomez – Three years, $36MM

Brett Cecil – Three years, $18MM

Brad Ziegler – Two years, $16MM

Jason Castro – Two years, $15MM <---assuming we could trade Martin)

Luis Valbuena – Two years, $14MM

Matt Holliday – One year, $10MM

Eric Thames – Two years, $10MM <---love this one

 

Why would you want to downgrade the team so much by trading Martin and singing Castro? Martin makes a pretty big difference behind the plate with his game calling as we saw Grilli and Liriano go from crap to above average pitchers with the switch.

[Grant77]

Definitely interested in Pearce I've been tooting his horn all offseason I just missed him. Beltran at one for 14 is ok.

 

That's why I asked lol.

 

Looking at the honourable mentions section, I'd be all over Pagan, Suzuki, Rasmus, Tazawa, Anderson, and Uehara for less than 1/6 as well.

[Terminator]

Why would you want to downgrade the team so much by trading Martin and singing Castro? Martin makes a pretty big difference behind the plate with his game calling as we saw Grilli and Liriano go from crap to above average pitchers with the switch.

 

I don't really think it's a downgrade. Castro is one of the top pitch framers in the game. Martin is slipping in that area. There is a significant chance that Castro outproduces Martin next season.

[G-Snarls]

Just sign good players to cheap contracts

 

It's f'n simple

[BTS]

So, with everyone advocating giving the biggest relief contract ever to Jansen/Chapman, should we admit that we were maybe too hard on JPR for BJ Ryan? He was unquestionably on that level when Toronto gave him 5/47 after 2005. Then his arm exploded.

[KingKat]

So, with everyone advocating giving the biggest relief contract ever to Jansen/Chapman, should we admit that we were maybe too hard on JPR for BJ Ryan? He was unquestionably on that level when Toronto gave him 5/47 after 2005. Then his arm exploded.

 

Are people really that hard on JPR for that? It was a good signing and so was Burnett.

[BTS]

Are people really that hard on JPR for that? It was a good signing and so was Burnett.

 

I don't think I've ever seen anyone call Ryan a good signing. Every discussion about JP has people mocking that deal, with nobody defending it. Burnett yes.

[Laika]

So, with everyone advocating giving the biggest relief contract ever to Jansen/Chapman, should we admit that we were maybe too hard on JPR for BJ Ryan? He was unquestionably on that level when Toronto gave him 5/47 after 2005. Then his arm exploded.

 

BJ Ryan was one of their highest paid players though. It's not so much that the contract was horrible in a nutshell. Just bad for a mid-market team.

 

BJ Ryan should have been a luxury piece on a rich team. In 2008 he took up more payroll than Roy Halladay

[wamco]

Ten years later and relievers still aren't getting 5 year deals so far

[Terminator]

So, with everyone advocating giving the biggest relief contract ever to Jansen/Chapman, should we admit that we were maybe too hard on JPR for BJ Ryan? He was unquestionably on that level when Toronto gave him 5/47 after 2005. Then his arm exploded.

 

I was thinking about that earlier today. I'd need to look back at it and see how good Ryan actually was and how much relievers were getting paid.

 

Conventional wisdom (at least through sabremetric side of things) on relievers has gone through some serious changes though too. It seems like back then we all thought that 200 IP was more valuable than 70. Therefore RP shouldn't really get paid much. Teams like the Rays then started taking that to the extreme and building bullpens was basically finding gems off the scrap heap.

 

But now with these elite relievers throwing 2 innings a game in the playoffs the conventional wisdom is kind of changing again.

 

As for me, I'm starting to kind of land in the middle in that I think that elite relievers might only be worth that much money if they are on a high-end team projected to win a lot of games. Paying top dollar for a guy to throw 70 innings when you are projected at 80-85 wins or so isn't going to make as much sense as perhaps paying a starter similar money to throw 180-200 innings. But playoff baseball is different than regular season baseball. Paying an elite reliever can give you surplus value that can be hard to attain as a 92-95 win team. Also helps in the playoffs more as the elite reliever can throw 2 innings nearly every game. Seems like a good way to help a team add win probability in the playoffs.

[BTS]

BJ Ryan was one of their highest paid players though. It's not so much that the contract was horrible in a nutshell. Just bad for a mid-market team.

 

BJ Ryan should have been a luxury piece on a rich team. In 2008 he took up more payroll than Roy Halladay

 

Would be analogous to like Seattle or the White Sox giving Kenley Jansen 5/85, and then trying to compete in 2017 on a mid-range payroll. Maybe not the ideal move for them, but not obviously terrible either.

[BTS]

I was thinking about that earlier today. I'd need to look back at it and see how good Ryan actually was and how much relievers were getting paid.

 

Conventional wisdom (at least through sabremetric side of things) on relievers has gone through some serious changes though too. It seems like back then we all thought that 200 IP was more valuable than 70. Therefore RP shouldn't really get paid much. Teams like the Rays then started taking that to the extreme and building bullpens was basically finding gems off the scrap heap.

 

But now with these elite relievers throwing 2 innings a game in the playoffs the conventional wisdom is kind of changing again.

 

As for me, I'm starting to kind of land in the middle in that I think that elite relievers might only be worth that much money if they are on a high-end team projected to win a lot of games. Paying top dollar for a guy to throw 70 innings when you are projected at 80-85 wins or so isn't going to make as much sense as perhaps paying a starter similar money to throw 180-200 innings. But playoff baseball is different than regular season baseball. Paying an elite reliever can give you surplus value that can be hard to attain as a 92-95 win team. Also helps in the playoffs more as the elite reliever can throw 2 innings nearly every game. Seems like a good way to help a team add win probability in the playoffs.

 

It's crazy how fast things change in baseball. 15 years ago we all thought closers were super valuable, then WAR came out and we all though relievers were a waste of money, now we think that WAR undervalues the contributions of elite relievers, and think they're pretty valuable again.