Offseason Roster Thread 2016-17

[metafour]

You know what sucks Shapiro could never do what AA did 2 years ago. Acquired an MVP candidate in his prime for pieces

 

AA couldn't do that again either; hence why all of his other trades for "MVP candidates" (Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, RA Dickey, Troy Tulowitzki) proved to be colossal flops. The man made a once-in-a-lifetime trade.

 

Remember when we were acquiring an "MVP candidate" in Tulowitzki?

[saskjayfan]

AA couldn't do that again either; hence why all of his other trades for "MVP candidates" (Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, RA Dickey, Troy Tulowitzki) proved to be colossal flops. The man made a once-in-a-lifetime trade.

 

Remember when we were acquiring an "MVP candidate" in Tulowitzki?

 

We got rid of Reyes in that deal..and tulo is a very good player...there was nothing wrong with the Tulo deal

[metafour]

We got rid of Reyes in that deal..and tulo is a very good player...there was nothing wrong with the Tulo deal

 

We got rid of Reyes by acquiring a player with an even bigger/longer contract. Tulo has been a ~2-3 WAR defensive player here. It was an alright trade, but hardly anything incredible considering that we've got 4 years left wherein you better pray that his defense doesn't decline, because his hitting has already regressed to league-average level.

[Grant77]

It changes everything, are you serious? Shapiro's analysis found that most hitters/sluggers start falling off significantly at age ~35/36, therefore signing 30 year old Bourn until age 34 or 32 year old Swisher until 36 theoretically made sense because it should have limited "dead contract years" to at most a year or so for both players (with more risk on Bourn because he was a speed-driven player). That is drastically different from going long-term at INFLATED MARKET VALUE on a player like EE who is already 34 and could start declining significantly even a year from now...a thought that isn't even that ridiculous considering that he actually regressed metrically THIS season (~4-5% jump in strikeout rate, ~15 point drop in wRC+ relative to his norm the past ~4 seasons). The scary thought on EE is him giving you 5-6 WAR the next two seasons and then being stuck with a DH making ~$40-60+ million over the last 2-3 years of his contract while he gives you ~1-2 WAR per year.

 

If he was against signing players past their prime, he wouldn't have signed Bourn and Swisher. This is a different team in a different on the field and financial situation. If you think you are smarter than everyone else and can predict that Shapiro won't even try then go for it, but I think it's a fool's errand.

 

In my opinion, he sees value in every type of player and doesn't write them off because of some sort of silly age limit that you imagined. If EE is willing to take a number close to that value then a deal will get done.

[wamco]

If trading anyone in rotation to make room for osuna, make it liriano

[BlueJaysGirl]

We got rid of Reyes in that deal..and tulo is a very good player...there was nothing wrong with the Tulo deal

 

So true. At the time Reyes was a black hole defensively, and was annoying to even watch. We got rid of him which was awesome.

[ChrisS]

We got rid of Reyes by acquiring a player with an even bigger/longer contract. Tulo has been a ~2-3 WAR defensive player here. It was an alright trade, but hardly anything incredible considering that we've got 4 years left wherein you better pray that his defense doesn't decline, because his hitting has already regressed to league-average level.

The trade worked out in our favour. Tulo is an asset to the team and a leader.

[Captain Adama]

And the Tulo contract could easily become an unmovable one if he continues to decline. Don't think this trade was a steal.

[Brownie19]

If trading anyone in rotation to make room for osuna, make it liriano

 

Except he has the least trade value of our 5 starters...

[Captain Adama]

Except he has the least trade value of our 5 starters...

 

It's like you have to give up value if you want it in return.

[metafour]

The trade worked out in our favour. Tulo is an asset to the team and a leader.

 

He's an asset in that we just wound the clock back a few years on Jose Reyes; albeit he's not as useless from an attitude standpoint. A year or two from now this could easily be a situation wherein you're sitting on ~2+ years of extremely overpaid (while under performing) Troy Tulowitzki, which is exactly where we were sitting with Reyes.

 

Asdrubal Cabrera was a better SS this season and he signed with the Mets for 2 years, $18.5 million last offseason.

[Captain Adama]

He's an asset in that we just wound the clock back a few years on Jose Reyes; albeit he's not as useless from an attitude standpoint. A year or two from now this could easily be a situation wherein you're sitting on ~2+ years of extremely overpaid (while under performing) Troy Tulowitzki, which is exactly where we were sitting with Reyes.

 

Asdrubal Cabrera was a better SS this season and he signed with the Mets for 2 years, $18.5 million last offseason.

 

Exactly, it was a win now move that was a terrible move value wise.

[metafour]

Exactly, it was a win now move that was a terrible move value wise.

 

And its not like we just flipped the contracts of Reyes/Tulo; we gave up two top pitching prospects to get it done. Hoffman and Castro probably end up disappointing just like every pitching prospect ever in Colorado, but those two could have easily been elite relief options for us even if they never worked out as starters. Colorado literally used up all of Tulo's prime years, paid him a huge contract to keep him there, and then got another team to pay two top prospects to eat the ugly back end of his contract wherein he's no longer an elite player, all for the price of eating some of Reyes' contract, which wasn't even a big deal considering that they are rebuilding and therefore they can afford to pay a guy to just leave.

[fatcowxlive]

And the Tulo contract could easily become an unmovable one if he continues to decline. Don't think this trade was a steal.

 

I'm pretty sure it is unmovable already, didn't he have a clause in his contract that when traded away from Colorado he he'll have a full no-trade clause?

[Captain Adama]

I'm pretty sure it is unmovable already, didn't he have a clause in his contract that when traded away from Colorado he he'll have a full no-trade clause?

 

That's true, but hypothetically, even if he didn't have a NTC, I doubt any team would want to pick him up unless the Jays eat a good portion of his salary.

[Abomination]

That's true, but hypothetically, even if he didn't have a NTC, I doubt any team would want to pick him up unless the Jays eat a good portion of his salary.

 

I doubt they'd have to eat much contract, unless they wanted to get a high end return. Heck, if Tulo were to hit the free agent market right now, he'd probably get pretty close to his current remaining contract.

[jays4life19]

Regardless of how the trade works out, the process of the Tulo trade was very solid. He was coming off back to back 5 win seasons, including a likely MVP season if not for injury and hit 170 wRC+. Hoffman was not striking anyone out despite having "stuff" and Castro looked like a RP at best. It was selling high on the prospects before they lost their "shine" (and yes I'm aware Hoffman started to improve once in the Rockies system) while getting one of the best players in the game (which projections were very high on going forward) and dumping a s*** bag in Reyes.

[Captain Adama]

I doubt they'd have to eat much contract, unless they wanted to get a high end return. Heck, if Tulo were to hit the free agent market right now, he'd probably get pretty close to his current remaining contract.

 

yeah this is the mindset I'm thinking of.

[metafour]

Heck, if Tulo were to hit the free agent market right now, he'd probably get pretty close to his current remaining contract.

 

You think he'd get $74 million over his age 32-36 years after 2.3 and 2.8 WAR seasons the last two seasons? That seems like an awful lot for an injury-prone ageing player who is almost all-defense now.

[jays4life19]

You think he'd get $74 million over his age 32-36 years after 2.3 and 2.8 WAR seasons the last two seasons? That seems like an awful lot for an injury-prone ageing player who is almost all-defense now.

 

A plus defender who hits league average at SS is quite valuable and hard to find.

[Abomination]

You think he'd get $74 million over his age 32-36 years after 2.3 and 2.8 WAR seasons the last two seasons? That seems like an awful lot for an injury-prone ageing player who is almost all-defense now.

 

Around that range, yeah.

[metafour]

Regardless of how the trade works out, the process of the Tulo trade was very solid. He was coming off back to back 5 win seasons, including a likely MVP season if not for injury and hit 170 wRC+. Hoffman was not striking anyone out despite having "stuff" and Castro looked like a RP at best. It was selling high on the prospects before they lost their "shine" (and yes I'm aware Hoffman started to improve once in the Rockies system) while getting one of the best players in the game (which projections were very high on going forward) and dumping a s*** bag in Reyes.

 

Except that Tulowitzki looked like utter crap in his last half season with the Rockies, which kind of kills the entire claim that we were getting "one of the best players in the game". His 1.5 seasons so far in Toronto have confirmed that he is a shell of his former self; its almost as if Colorado knew what it was doing by dumping him while people still thought that he was a 5 win player.

 

I'm not going to get into Hoffman/Castro. Its not like our best starter isn't a guy who had "stuff" yet couldn't strike batters out in the minor leagues. Like I said, I feel pretty confident that those two could have easily become high end relievers in the least. Imagine rolling out Castro/Hoffman/Osuna out of the bullpen for the foreseeable future.

[metafour]

A plus defender who hits league average at SS is quite valuable and hard to find.

 

...the Mets found that player for $18.5 million.

[ChrisS]

How did Reyes work out for the Rockies again?

[jays4life19]

Except that Tulowitzki looked like utter crap in his last half season with the Rockies, which kind of kills the entire claim that we were getting "one of the best players in the game". His 1.5 seasons so far in Toronto have confirmed that he is a shell of his former self; its almost as if Colorado knew what it was doing by dumping him while people still thought that he was a 5 win player.

 

I'm not going to get into Hoffman/Castro. Its not like our best starter isn't a guy who had "stuff" yet couldn't strike batters out in the minor leagues. Like I said, I feel pretty confident that those two could have easily become high end relievers in the least. Imagine rolling out Castro/Hoffman/Osuna out of the bullpen for the foreseeable future.

 

Sample size is a thing. As I said, regardless if Tulo hits 60 wRC+ and is a shitbag after the trade the process of making the trade was still solid. Hindsight is 20/20. You don't look at 200 AB's in a few months of a season and decide he's going to fall off a cliff after putting up like a 160 wRC+ over 800+ AB's and 10+fWAR over the last 2 seasons.

 

s*** happens in baseball, if you make trades using sound process they will work out more often than not. The Tulo trade was solid.

[Abomination]

...the Mets found that player for $18.5 million.

 

I'm not sure Asdrubal is really a plus defender, although he has improved the last two years. He also got that contract coming off seasons of 0.3, 1.6, and 2.2 WAR.

[metafour]

How did Reyes work out for the Rockies again?

 

Who cares? They are a rebuilding team and knew what they were acquiring. Not only did they get two top pitching prospects, but they actually LOWERED their future financial commitment as Reyes was owed much less money than Tulowitzki. Its not like Tulo's 2-3 WAR value would make any difference on their non-contending team. In reality, getting rid of Tulo allowed them to play Trevor Story at SS this season. Story actually put the exact same WAR as Tulo...in 30 less games LOL.

[Grant77]

...the Mets found that player for $18.5 million.

 

We got Kevin Pillar in the 30th round or something. I guess gold glove CF's are easy to find too.

[metafour]

He also got that contract coming off seasons of 0.3, 1.6, and 2.2 WAR.

 

So 1.6 and 2.2 WAR as a younger player gets you $18.5 million, but I'm supposed to believe that 2.3 and 2.8 WAR is going to net the older player $74 million on the open market?

[Boxcar]

I'm not sure Asdrubal is really a plus defender, although he has improved the last two years. He also got that contract coming off seasons of 0.3, 1.6, and 2.2 WAR.

 

No, let's take a trade with a good process that didn't quite work out as hoped and compare it with a "came out of nowhere" best case scenario.