Liriano or Stroman

[admin]

Orioles Career vs Stroman:

 

 

Trumbo 5-11 (.455)

Kim 3-7 (.429)

Jones 6-15 (.400)

Wieters 5-14 (.357), 2 HR

Davis 4-13 (.308)

 

 

TERRIBLE idea to start Stroman. He better be on a very short leash.

 

And one of the reason Atkins said we went with Stroman was the "matchups". Really? What a f***ing joke. If he bombs whoever made the decision should be fired.

[WONDERBAT]

As expected, Gibby's quote:

 

"I've seen Marcus rise to the occasion many, many times. He's the perfect guy for it."

 

Only way Gibby saves his job is if we go all the way?

[Terminator]

And one of the reason Atkins said we went with Stroman was the "matchups". Really? What a f***ing joke. If he bombs whoever made the decision should be fired.

 

So now you are using 7 ABs from Kim to 15 for Jones to call for the firing of the Front Office if we lose?

[SweetSmellingChacin]

Stroman does have the 2nd lowest HR/9 among the starters (only Sanchez gives up less per 9). Liriano gives up the 2nd most (Dickey has the highest rate).

[Spanky99]

lol... Hnnngghhh...

 

In other news, this is a good interview with Showalter, quite impressed.

[JoeCarter]

Here's a novel idea: instead of acting as though LHP's are Orioles kryptonite for some voodoo reason that you can't explain, or treating all LHPs as though they were equal, why don't we actually look at the current Orioles' batters' history against each of Stroman and Liriano. News flash: they've hit them both rather well, small sample size nothwithstanding. Acknowledging that neither one has all that great a track record vs these O's hitters, I'll take the guy with a 4:1 K/BB ratio over the guy with 2.9:1. And take your pick from among the rest of the O's #s: Stroman's better across the board. Oh yeah, and he's also better by any non-O's-specific metric from this season. He was the correct choice to start, and I'm not even sure it's all that close. And also means that we have Liriano for Davis or other late-inning loogy situations instead of relying on Cecil.

 

http://i.imgur.com/NZ3MXYI.jpg

[Laika]

And why is that? If 75 to 100 unregressed ABs vs lefties is worthless for an individual player, then why is 75 to 100 unregressed unregressed ABs for 9 players each and then added together somehow useful?

 

Well, hypothetically for the same reason that one year of unregressed splits information is useless for an individual player but nine years of unregressed PAs for the same player, added together, might be stable.

 

Collectively the Orioles had 1532 PA against LHP this year. Whether we need to regress their team split 80% to the mean, 50% to the mean, 20% to the mean is the question. I think it's an important question and I hope the Jays FO actually did some math.

 

I think you're correct in being skeptical about using the team split as a definitive nugget of information.

[Laika]

Here's a novel idea: instead of acting as though LHP's are Orioles kryptonite for some voodoo reason that you can't explain, or treating all LHPs as though they were equal, why don't we actually look at the current Orioles' batters' history against each of Stroman and Liriano.

 

Oof. That's even worse.

[fatcowxlive]

Here's a novel idea: instead of acting as though LHP's are Orioles kryptonite for some voodoo reason that you can't explain, or treating all LHPs as though they were equal, why don't we actually look at the current Orioles' batters' history against each of Stroman and Liriano. News flash: they've hit them both rather well, small sample size nothwithstanding. Acknowledging that neither one has all that great a track record vs these O's hitters, I'll take the guy with a 4:1 K/BB ratio over the guy with 2.9:1. And take your pic from among the rest of the O's #s: Stroman's better across the board. Oh yeah, and he's also better by any non-O's-specific metric from this season. He was the correct choice to start, and I'm not even sure it's all that close. And also means that we have Liriano for Davis or other late-inning loogy situations instead of relying on Cecil.

 

http://i.imgur.com/NZ3MXYI.jpg

 

Because like you posted the max # of PAs we see is 24 from trumbo. That's not a good sample size.

[SweetSmellingChacin]

Any Stroman Predictions?

 

I will go with 5 innings, 3 ERs.

[Dick_Pole]

I do not like this choice, but not enough to get particularly upset about it. We'll see tomorrow if it works out. And Stroman has a poor outing and the Jays lose....fire the lot of them.

[Terminator]

Well, hypothetically for the same reason that one year of unregressed splits information is useless for an individual player but nine years of unregressed PAs for the same player, added together, might be stable.

 

Collectively the Orioles had 1532 PA against LHP this year. Whether we need to regress their team split 80% to the mean, 50% to the mean, 20% to the mean is the question. I think it's an important question and I hope the Jays FO actually did some math.

 

I think you're correct in being skeptical about using the team split as a definitive nugget of information.

 

I think fangraphs ran a pretty good article on this some few years back and the regression for left handed batter splits was about 8.5% and for righties it's about 6%. They had some formula you could use and everything.

 

EDIT: Here it is: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimating-hitter-platoon-skill/. Tom Tango wrote about it as well: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/fangraphs_now_has_some_splits_data/#comments.

[burlingtonbandit]

And one of the reason Atkins said we went with Stroman was the "matchups". Really? What a f***ing joke. If he bombs whoever made the decision should be fired.

 

Say you let Stroman go twice through the order and bring in Liriano to face them the 3rd time through the order. Well the Os would have to consider if they want to take Kim, and Alvarez out of the game to PH a RHB. And by doing so the Blue Jays would have an advantage the 4th time through as the Os would have lost Kim and Alvarez who likely face Grilli/Biagini/Osuna.

 

There is a larger advantage to doing that than having Liriano start and Stroman piggyback because the Jays back end of the bullpen is mostly RH. So maybe you should actually think for a second about matchups before you go yelling about someone being Fired.

[admin]

Say you let Stroman go twice through the order and bring in Liriano to face them the 3rd time through the order. Well the Os would have to consider if they want to take Kim, and Alvarez out of the game to PH a RHB. And by doing so the Blue Jays would have an advantage the 4th time through as the Os would have lost Kim and Alvarez who likely face Grilli/Biagini/Osuna.

 

There is a larger advantage to doing that than having Liriano start and Stroman piggyback because the Jays back end of the bullpen is mostly RH. So maybe you should actually think for a second

about matchups before you go yelling about someone being Fired.

 

Say Stroman gives up four runs in the first two innings and this abysmal offense has to try and come back. What a silly thing to say. I'm worried he doesn't make it two times through the lineup.

[admin]

So now you are using 7 ABs from Kim to 15 for Jones to call for the firing of the Front Office if we lose?

 

Yes, you take any advantage you can f***ing get. If multiple guys are hitting around .500 against Stroman even in limited atbats, that's a big f***ing deal to me. I know you're trying hard to defend the decision, but this is getting stupid.

[Spanky99]

Say Stroman gives up four runs in the first two innings and this abysmal offense has to try and come back. What a silly thing to say. I'm worried he doesn't make it two times through the lineup.

 

What if Liriano did... same difference. What a silly thing to say.

[Laika]

Yes, you take any advantage you can f***ing get. If multiple guys are hitting around .500 against Stroman even in limited atbats, that's a big f***ing deal to me. I know you're trying hard to defend the decision, but this is getting stupid.

 

But it's not an advantage at ALL.

 

In fact, small sample size s*** like that can be obfuscating and if relied on it can lead to making the objectively inferior decision.

[admin]

What if Liriano did... same difference. What a silly thing to say.

 

Except Liriano hasn't been eaten alive three times this year vs Baltimore. That's the whole f***ing point of this discussion.

[Laika]

I think fangraphs ran a pretty good article on this some few years back and the regression for left handed batter splits was about 8.5% and for righties it's about 6%. They had some formula you could use and everything.

 

EDIT: Here it is: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimating-hitter-platoon-skill/. Tom Tango wrote about it as well: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/fangraphs_now_has_some_splits_data/#comments.

 

Oh I know all about this.

 

The percentages you're referring to are the expected platoon splits. So righties are expected to be 8.5% better against LHP than they are against RHP.

 

What we do not know are the following two things:

 

- Expected platoon split for a MLB team (and in which direction)

- PA vs LHP that it takes for a team level platoon split to be 50% stable (or more or less stable; whatever)

[admin]

But it's not an advantage at ALL.

 

In fact, small sample size s*** like that can be obfuscating and if relied on it can lead to making the objectively inferior decision.

 

I'll be happy to be proven wrong. But there's a reason 81.5% of us would like to see Liriano out there. I really haven't see any reasons backing Stroman other than "he's our guy, he's been here all year."

[Spanky99]

Except Liriano hasn't been eaten alive three times this year vs Baltimore. That's the whole f***ing point of this discussion.

 

If's and But's seem to be the conversation, ju1ced.

 

[Terminator]

Yes, you take any advantage you can f***ing get. If multiple guys are hitting around .500 against Stroman even in limited atbats, that's a big f***ing deal to me. I know you're trying hard to defend the decision, but this is getting stupid.

 

But they hit Liriano even harder career wise. I don't even like those numbers as it's 25 or so AB's instead of 10 but if you're going to use matchups like that might as well use the greater number.

 

And why are you so pissed about this? lol I'm not even saying that I'm absolutely right I just think Stroman is the better pick. Those that think Liriano is the better pick have an argument as well, more of a "hot hand" theory, but for either side to definitively say the other is wrong discounts how tough of a decision this really is.

[BlueRocky]

Stroman will start.

Liriano will be available in the bullpen.

It's already decided, so we might as just pray the Jays find their bats tomorrow.

 

They're not going to pull off another 2-1 win with Stroman on the mound.

Oriole's have been crushing bad pitching righties this passed month.

 

This might turn into a slugfest.

If the bats don't wake up, even if they get through the WC game, they won't get very far.

 

They will have to play through Orioles, Rangers, and RedSox (RIP Indians) to get to the World Series.

 

The only way that's gonna happen is if they channel their inner 2015 Jays that exploded as the best offense in baseball last year.

 

If anyone thinks this rotation and bullpen can pitch their way to a World Series, they're kidding themselves.

[Laika]

I'll be happy to be proven wrong. But there's a reason 81.5% of us would like to see Liriano out there. I really haven't see any reasons backing Stroman other than "he's our guy, he's been here all year."

 

Stroman fWAR in 2016: 3.2

Liriano fWAR in 2016: 0.4

 

Stroman projection: 3.47 ERA / 3.56 FIP

Liriano projection: 3.89 ERA / 3.92 FIP

(this is what Steamer shows right now on Fangraphs)

 

Last 3 years - Stroman has more total WAR than Liriano even with a partial season in 2014 and nearly an entire season missing with the knee injury in 2015!

 

And for the record, I voted Liriano.

 

Don't act like there are no arguments for Stroman. He's f***ing good!

[nmrch]

Its crazy how underrated Stroman is on this forum. I'd want him to start the wildcard game even if it didn't come down to between just him and Liriano, over Sanchez, Estrada and Happ.

[Jonn]

I don't think anyone argues that Stroman is good. He just might not be a good matchup against the Orioles.

[BlueRocky]

If you really want to build a case for Stroman, you can look at xFIP SIERA, ground ball rates, HR/9 comparisons with Liriano, especially the 2nd half of the season. I'm a big Stroman fan.

 

But still can't ignore the O's offensive success against him and the fact he hasn't won a game in almost 2 months

[Terminator]

Except Liriano hasn't been eaten alive three times this year vs Baltimore. That's the whole f***ing point of this discussion.

 

Well let's look at Stroman's starts.

 

Apr 19: Held them to one run through 6 innings. Gave up two runs in the 7th and was pulled.

June 9: Gave up 3 runs in the first 5 innings. Allowed to pitch the 6th and gave up another run.

June 19: Just flat out got his tits lit. June 9th and this game cap a 10 day stretch where he was at his worst all season.

Sept 29: Threw 6 innings of two run ball. Gibby leaves him to pitch the 7th and he gives up a run. Gibby inexplicably leaves him in again for the 8th and he gave up a double and a single before finally being pulled.

 

If Gibby would just pull him after seeing the lineup two times he would have done much, much better against the O's. I presume that's the plan for tomorrow and then go to Liriano. If it's not I'll be rioting right there with you.

[Spanky99]

Winzzzz...

[nmrch]

If you really want to build a case for Stroman, you can look at xFIP SIERA, ground ball rates, HR/9 comparisons with Liriano, especially the 2nd half of the season. I'm a big Stroman fan.

 

But still can't ignore the O's offensive success against him and the fact he hasn't won a game in almost 2 months

 

Pitchers don't "win" games, teams do. Stroman has been fantastic in the 2nd half of the season.