538's Best/Worst Bullpen Managers (Shocker: Gibbons sucks)

[GD]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseballs-savviest-and-crappiest-bullpen-managers/

 

First, we ranked the relievers on each team² in every full season since 2000³ from best to worst in deserved run average (DRA), which is Baseball Prospectus’s context-neutral metric for evaluating pitcher performance.⁴ We then ranked those same pitchers by the average leverage index — essentially, the importance (and pressure) of the moment — at the point when they first entered the game.⁵ Finally, we checked how well each team’s ranking of relievers by leverage index matched its ranking by DRA, a correlation⁶ we’re calling a team’s reliever management (RM) score. Effective bullpen managers use their best relievers (those with the lowest DRAs) in the most important moments (those with the highest leverage index), which pushes the RM score toward an ideal of -1.

 

A manager who’s bad at managing a bullpen (for example, Manny Acta) might be expected to win about 0.5 fewer games per season as a result of his bullpen-management problems than an average manager with the same ’pen, while a good one (such as Joe Girardi) might win 0.5 games morethan average over the course of a season. The total effect of this skill has a range of perhaps one win per year.

[BTS]

This is going to turn into a thread about 1-run games.

[GD]

dance puppets dance

[FrozenRopes]

This is going to turn into a thread about 1-run games.

 

Today was a 1 run game

[Stangstag]

Ooooh Eric Wedge is in the top 10

[Pendleton]

 

Johnny the Gambler