Does Happ have a shot at the Cy Young?

[GD]

WAR is not even a real stat as people have different views of it.

 

 

dkm

[Grant77]

He still has a shot if his last 2 starts are great (moving him to 21-4) and Porcello's are s*** (leaving him at 20-6) as that will leave their ERA's near the same.

 

Porcello plays for Boston though. That will make an enormous difference in the voting.

[FrozenRopes]

Has there been a more underwhelming 20-game winner in the last 10 years? Weaver a few years ago I guess.

 

Porcello?

[CBlake]

dkm

 

All I am say is trying to push War in a historocal way just does not add up sometimes.

[GD]

All I am say is trying to push War in a historocal way just does not add up sometimes.

 

Then you probably haven't looked into the things that go into it

[Olerud363]

Not Welch. Welch is the clear winner.

 

I didn't even bother to check Welch... 27-6 2.95?? and only 1.8 WAR.

 

He actually posted his lowest WAR in 10 years or so that year, weird. Lowest k rate I guess did it.

[KevinGregg]

Then you probably haven't looked into the things that go into it

 

Maybe all he is trying to say is that no one even knew what the hell WAR was back then, and the best tools they had were things like ERA and batting average. This would have led people back then to draw different conclusions than we draw now, and criticizing those conclusions doesn't really make sense because they were simply doing the best they could with the tools they had available.

 

Obviously we can go back now and see who was objectively the best, but to argue that those guys weren't the right choice for the Cy back then because of WAR doesn't really make any sense - it's not like the voters were ignoring it back then like they do now. They honestly didn't know about linear weights and run values the same way we do now.

[GD]

Doesn't explain what "WAR isn't even a real stat because people have different views on it" means.

[MunenoriKawasakiMVP]

Sounds like a typical naive Munenori Kawasaki fan. Sale was arguably the best pitcher in the AL last year. When you strikeout the most batters per 9 that's usually not looked at as an underwhelming year lol.

 

I'm not suggesting Keuchel didn't deserve of it, it's just pitchers have a very hard time getting Cy Young votes without wins. The only pitcher I can think of was King Felix with a .500 record, he is the absolute rare exception to the rule.

 

Strikeouts does not define if a pitcher is good or bad. If the pitcher is really really good, strikeouts are gonna help him get his ERA down, which clearly wasn't the case last year.

[Jonn]

Doesn't explain what "WAR isn't even a real stat because people have different views on it" means.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/War

[Dick_Pole]

I didn't even bother to check Welch... 27-6 2.95?? and only 1.8 WAR.

 

He actually posted his lowest WAR in 10 years or so that year, weird. Lowest k rate I guess did it.

 

A good defense could hurt a pitchers K rate and the associated advanced stats.

 

Let's say you're a pitcher who always strikes out 2 out of every 10 batters.

If you have a good defense behind you, let's say 6 of those 8 other instances are outs.

That means you're striking out 2 batters per 2 2/3 innings or 6.8 per 9 and have a WHIP of 0.75

 

With a bad defense let's say only 4 out of 8 of those other instances are outs.

That means you're striking out 2 batters per 2 innings or 9 per 9 and have a WHIP of 2.

 

This is the exact same pitcher, but in the latter case the pitcher is getting punished in real life by his bad defense and praised by the advanced stat crowd for the artificially high K rate. The opposite in the former scenario.

 

Conversing with Olerud in the way he understands best....compartmentalized rants and thought experiments.

[UWHabs]

Gonna be a close race this year.

Porcello has the wins and a good ERA, but he'll lose some votes because everyone knows he's not the best pitcher on Boston.

Happ is just behind him in wins and ERA, and as well, not generally highly regarded.

Tanaka leads in ERA, but is a lot lower in wins.

If Sale can overtake Tanaka for ERA, then he'll have a good shot, as he's put up solid win numbers, and has better strikeout numbers than the others.

Kluber is likely the favourite at this point, as he's at or near the top in all categories.

 

Happ also has less IP/start than most of the others (20-25 IP less than most of the other top candidates), so that's probably enough to knock him out of the race. Barring anyone having a really great or really terrible last 2 starts, it's probably between Kluber and Porcello at this point.

[UWHabs]

A good defense could hurt a pitchers K rate and the associated advanced stats.

 

Let's say you're a pitcher who always strikes out 2 out of every 10 batters.

If you have a good defense behind you, let's say 6 of those 8 other instances are outs.

That means you're striking out 2 batters per 2 2/3 innings or 6.8 per 9 and have a WHIP of 0.75

 

With a bad defense let's say only 4 out of 8 of those other instances are outs.

That means you're striking out 2 batters per 2 innings or 9 per 9 and have a WHIP of 2.

 

This is the exact same pitcher, but in the latter case the pitcher is getting punished in real life by his bad defense and praised by the advanced stat crowd for the artificially high K rate. The opposite in the former scenario.

 

Conversing with Olerud in the way he understands best....compartmentalized rants and thought experiments.

 

Over the course of a season defense won't make that much difference. And that's why the truly advanced stats guys tend to look at K% instead, for that exact reason.

[thatoneguy]

Doesn't explain what "WAR isn't even a real stat because people have different views on it" means.

 

What is it good for?

[gbill2004]

He's got my vote.

[Orgfiller]

What is it good for?

 

Bush started WAR.

[Ultimate]

Britton should win it in a landslide. There has not been a dominant starter this year, no starter has accomplished close to what Britton has this year.

[Grant77]

Britton should win it in a landslide. There has not been a dominant starter this year, no starter has accomplished close to what Britton has this year.

 

His WPA is higher than anyone's WAR, so there's a legit argument to be made for him. Also, there's his badass middle name.

[BTS]

Britton should win it in a landslide. There has not been a dominant starter this year, no starter has accomplished close to what Britton has this year.

 

I buy the argument for him. I think I'd probably go Kluber, but I like the argument for Britton.

[GD]

Britton isn't even the best reliever in the AL.

 

Miller has a f***ing 1.21 SIERA.

[BTS]

Britton isn't even the best reliever in the AL.

 

Miller has a f***ing 1.21 SIERA.

 

Yeah, but there's zero chance the voters vote for a guy who didn't even close half the year. They'll at least consider a 40-save guy.

[GD]

Yeah, but there's zero chance the voters vote for a guy who didn't even close half the year. They'll at least consider a 40-save guy.

 

Ok but consider:

 

you are dumn

[CBlake]

How old school are the voters, the Peter Gammons of the world putting into some of this new age thinking?

[Grant77]

What does WPA have to do with an award for "best pitcher?"

 

Even if you view it from a value standpoint, WPA and WAR are different things... they don't need to mean anything side-by-side.

 

 

The perfection is what they'll consider. Not necessarily the total.

 

You're trying a little too hard to look smart. I'm obviously well aware of what WPA and WAR are.

 

We saw last year that the award is far from 'best pitcher' when voters (wrongfully) included Keuchel's defense in their criteria. I could see a lot of voters going for the 'most valuable pitcher' narrative and Britton has to be considered.

[TheHurl]

With so little between the favourites, voters will get lazy and just vote Britton first. Just the way it is, unless someone's Dad dies or buys the right people hookers.

[BTS]

I miss the days when North didn't take himself so seriously.