Chapman to Cubs

[Grant77]

If this is the package in a done deal, how much better is it than the package the Yankees sent to Cinci to get him in the first place? (Or is it for sure)

 

Cubs are just dealing guys that are blocked. Warren sucks, and Vogelbach and Torres have nowhere to play.

 

Torres is hardly blocked right now. His ETA is probably late 2018 or 2019 if all goes well.

[CrackerJack]

Net positive

 

No Chapman is good we play Yankees a lot

 

I'd rather the Yankees keep Chapman. NY has more games left against Boston & Baltimore than Toronto.

[Dr. Dinger]

I'd rather the Yankees keep Chapman. NY has more games left against Boston & Baltimore than Toronto.

 

It hardly makes a difference; Miller & Betances is still the best backend bullpen in baseball even without Chapman. The Yankees still need to get a lead to the late innings first.

[CrackerJack]

It hardly makes a difference; Miller & Betances is still the best backend bullpen in baseball even without Chapman. The Yankees still need to get a lead to the late innings first.

 

yeah but if the Yankees are in true sell mode, then Miller could very well be gone too (since he'd probably bring back more than Chapman.)

[Brownie19]

Torres alone blows the Yankee package out of the water.

 

What's the low down on Torres? The pure numbers make him look like Urena. I'm assuming he brings ++ defense?

[Dr. Dinger]

What's the low down on Torres? The pure numbers make him look like Urena. I'm assuming he brings ++ defense?

 

Better hitter, more power, more speed, better BB rate, younger. For a 19 year old to have a 122 wRC+ in A+ is really good.

[CrackerJack]

Let's hope the Yankees sweep the 'Stros and give their brass second thoughts of selling before the deadline. It ain't really a party in the AL East without meaningful games (for both teams) against NY.

[xposbrad]

Yanks will be getting a massive haul for a couple of months of Chapman, wow..

[John_Havok]

What's the low down on Torres? The pure numbers make him look like Urena. I'm assuming he brings ++ defense?

 

Torres is abut 1 year younger than Urena, knows how to take walks and most are projecting him as an eventaul great hitter with average power and plus but not elite defense.

 

Urena's celing right now is projecting as maybe an average hitter (if his litch recognition improves) with plus defense.

[xposbrad]

Now, if the Jays can do that for JB, we can start to build up the farm again.

[Grant77]

Better hitter, more power, more speed, better BB rate, younger. For a 19 year old to have a 122 wRC+ in A+ is really good.

 

In fairness to Brownie, Urena is just 9 months older and has a better wRC+ at the same level.

[Brownie19]

Better hitter, more power, more speed, better BB rate, younger. For a 19 year old to have a 122 wRC+ in A+ is really good.

 

Urena has a wRC+ of 125 in A+ and is only 9 months older. Nobody here really even considers Urena to be much of a prospect at all - yet Torres is a massive get for the Yanks? I don't get it. It must be the glove.

[Dr. Dinger]

It's scouting.

[Brownie19]

It's scouting.

 

Oh right - those guys who think they have the ability to determine whether a 19 year old has the work ethic, mental capacity, emotional intelligence, focus, etc. to develop his abilities into tangible results. Junior Lake says hi.

 

 

I'm sure that's the difference....just seems as though there's a massive difference between Torres (who's though to be good) and Urena (who's though to be s***) when the results are similar at this point.

[KingKat]

Urena isn't thought to be s*** though. He's legitimately a prospect just not one as highly regarded as Torres. The nine month age difference is being weighed heavily. Perhaps too heavily but it's definitely playing a big factor.

[Dr. Dinger]

Oh right - those guys who think they have the ability to determine whether a 19 year old has the work ethic, mental capacity, emotional intelligence, focus, etc. to develop his abilities into tangible results. Junior Lake says hi.

 

 

I'm sure that's the difference....just seems as though there's a massive difference between Torres (who's though to be good) and Urena (who's though to be s***) when the results are similar at this point.

 

You really don't want to go down a rabbit-hole of stat-scouting, it usually doesn't end well. The simple truth is that at that age, the how (skills) matters more than the what (results). Lake was never an elite prospect that I can recall, he might have snuck his way onto the back half of a Top 100 somewhere. Scouts are right more often than not, which is why scouting is still the pre-eminent method of talent evaluation. Statistical analysis has it's value, but if you don't know how a player is achieving his results, then you don't know if they are going to be repeatable against better competition as he moves up.

[King]

Torres was highly touted as an IFA. A quick google search tells me he got 1.7 mil. Urena got about a million less.

 

Prospect status can carry a long way. It's just the way the industry works.

[John_Havok]

Oh right - those guys who think they have the ability to determine whether a 19 year old has the work ethic, mental capacity, emotional intelligence, focus, etc. to develop his abilities into tangible results. Junior Lake says hi.

 

 

I'm sure that's the difference....just seems as though there's a massive difference between Torres (who's though to be good) and Urena (who's though to be s***) when the results are similar at this point.

 

Here's the fangraphs write-ups on both Urena and Torres from pre-season 2016. Obviously this is only one opinion, but if you check around to other sites, you'll find they are pretty similar.

 

Urena:

Urena is all over the place when it comes to future projection. He could be a plus-fielding shortstop who hits for power, or he could be an average-ish defender who doesn’t hit enough to be more than a bench player. Some are concerned about his ability to stick at his position, but I think he ends up an above-average contributor overall on defense, regardless of where he ends up. I like elements of his swing from both sides of the plate, as well, but his approach is pretty abysmal, and I’m not sure he has the pitch recognition to tap into his above-average raw power.

 

His power is more a product of a pretty good swing path than raw strength. That usually bodes well for squaring more balls up because of time spent in line with pitch flight, but he seems to struggle with making adjustments mid-swing. He is also extremely aggressive to a fault, to the point that his 15 home runs last season actually exceeded his walk total (13). If his power were more guaranteed, he might be able to get away with that kind of approach, but as is, he needs to make an adjustment to profile as a lineup regular.

 

Blue Jays sources are big fans of his future development, and though I list a bunch of reasons why he’s a bit shaky, it’s important to recognize he’s only 20 years old. I remain more confident in his defense reaching the average-to-above plateau than his offense, but the potential is there for five average tools if his plate discipline improves.

 

Hit: 30/45/50 Power: 35/45+/50-55 Run: 50/50/50 Field: 50/55/55+ Throw: 60/60/60

Overall: 30/45/55-60

 

 

 

Torres: Torres has a great all-around profile, with all but his power projecting to be at least average. Defensively he doesn’t have prototypical shortstop range, but controls his body extremely well with excellent footwork. If he loses a step as he matures, he would be a great fit at second or third, as well, but I like him at short. He has plus arm strength with the ability to get rid of the ball quickly. His average speed could fade, but he has the instincts to create opportunities on the bases regardless.

 

In the box, Torres has a line drive swing with a lot of athletic moves. He makes plenty of hard contact, though his strength and level swing plane hint at a power ceiling around average. His batting practice swings show some better lift, but reaching it against live pitching would likely require some conscious effort to enact, made unnecessary by his raw ability to hit.

 

He has excellent balance and a strong lower half, with smooth hands and a selective approach in game. There is work to do on pitch recognition, but that is likely to come with more repetitions rather than being an innate problem. Torres looks to me like an elite major league hitter who will have situational power, making pitchers pay for mistakes left up in the zone.

 

Hit: 40/60/70 Power: 25/40/50 Run: 50/50/55 Field: 55/55/60 Throw: 55/60/60

Overall (Current, Likely Future, Ceiling): 35/60/70

[Brownie19]

You really don't want to go down a rabbit-hole of stat-scouting, it usually doesn't end well. The simple truth is that at that age, the how (skills) matters more than the what (results). Lake was never an elite prospect that I can recall, he might have snuck his way onto the back half of a Top 100 somewhere. Scouts are right more often than not, which is why scouting is still the pre-eminent method of talent evaluation. Statistical analysis has it's value, but if you don't know how a player is achieving his results, then you don't know if they are going to be repeatable against better competition as he moves up.

 

Fine - Matt Bush and Billy Beane say hi.

 

I'm just busting your balls. Scouting is obviously best done with a combination of numbers and visual support - and the visual is typically your best way of projection whether a player will take it to the next level (although it's an inexact science to say the least). Junior Lake is probably a good example of a player who was overhyped because he "looked" to have all the tools necessary to project as a ML starter (in spite of mediocre numbers). It obviously will never happen because dumn.

[Brownie19]

I've beaten this horse to death. The real issue here is this trade decreases the Jays chances of winning the WS. f*** the cubs and yanks.

[Dr. Dinger]

Fine - Matt Bush and Billy Beane say hi.

 

I'm just busting your balls. Scouting is obviously best done with a combination of numbers and visual support - and the visual is typically your best way of projection whether a player will take it to the next level (although it's an inexact science to say the least). Junior Lake is probably a good example of a player who was overhyped because he "looked" to have all the tools necessary to project as a ML starter (in spite of mediocre numbers). It obviously will never happen because dumn.

 

And if you were stat-scouting, you probably would have thought Brandon Wood was going to be a Hall of Famer. No method is fool proof, sometimes skillsets evolve, and sometimes a swing just doesn't work against MLB pitchers. In Matt Bush's case, the skill was always there, it was his makeup that was his downfall.

[Grant77]

I've beaten this horse to death. The real issue here is this trade decreases the Jays chances of winning the WS. f*** the cubs and yanks.

 

Why?

[John_Havok]

Fine - Matt Bush and Billy Beane say hi.

 

I'm just busting your balls. Scouting is obviously best done with a combination of numbers and visual support - and the visual is typically your best way of projection whether a player will take it to the next level (although it's an inexact science to say the least). Junior Lake is probably a good example of a player who was overhyped because he "looked" to have all the tools necessary to project as a ML starter (in spite of mediocre numbers). It obviously will never happen because dumn.

 

One of the failings of scouting over the past is completely discounting certain results (walks being the big one) and overlooking the non prototypical body types. That's where the numbers guys came in and said hey... what about these guys?

[z3r0s]

Man did I have wood for Wood back in the day. Sucks he couldn't transfer the skills to the top level.

[GD]

And if you were stat-scouting, you probably would have thought Brandon Wood was going to be a Hall of Famer.

 

Not if you do it right! More like a high quality SS in a bad park. The ying to Trevor Story's yang, if you will.

[Grant77]

And if you were stat-scouting, you probably would have thought Brandon Wood was going to be a Hall of Famer. No method is fool proof, sometimes skillsets evolve, and sometimes a swing just doesn't work against MLB pitchers. In Matt Bush's case, the skill was always there, it was his makeup that was his downfall.

 

Not necessarily. A lot of people were concerned about the strikeouts before he made his debut. I can't say I was one of them, but I did identify early on that Gose would never be a quality major leaguer by learning from mistakes like that.

[Grant77]

The 4th prospect is just a throw in, outfielder Rashad Crawford.

[Brownie19]

Why?

 

Because it makes the Cubs better and we could face them in the WS?

[Grant77]

Because it makes the Cubs better and we could face them in the WS?

 

Fangraphs gives that a 1.13% chance of happening. I'd rather focus on making the playoffs first.

[Boxcar]

Cubs are just dealing guys that are blocked. Warren sucks, and Vogelbach and Torres have nowhere to play.

 

I'd rather just get Miller in that case.