MiLB Recap July 21st 2016

[KingKat]

Are you assuming hes slow based on being chubby? Hes so young it wouldn't be difficult getting into great shape over the next 3 years. He could be a tremendous base runner with great instincts.

 

Or he could really slow down. He's too young and playing in too low a level to read much into his steals.

[Dr. Dinger]

Are you assuming hes slow based on being chubby? Hes so young it wouldn't be difficult getting into great shape over the next 3 years. He could be a tremendous base runner with great instincts.

 

Hey, I never said he was a chubby plodder. I think he is one, but I didn't say that.

[Atothe]

Speed is speed. If he has it then we would have been told. I think we should hope for above average baserunner.

[Dr. Dinger]

Speed is speed. If he has it then we would have been told. I think we should hope for above average baserunner.

 

MLB.com put a 35 grade on it, even hoping for an average runner is probably too optimistic.

[Laika]

How plodding? He does have 8 SB's already he can't be that slow can he?

 

Well, he's 17. By the time he's 22 most scouts project that he will be very large and probably slow.

 

He's a large, thick kid. Not the same body as his dad. Vlad Sr.'s rookie cards list him as 6'2", 165 lbs. Vlad Jr. is ALREADY listed as 6'1", 200 lbs.

 

200 lbs at 17!!!!

 

He'll probably break into the league with the body that his dad had at ~30 years old.

[Jonn]

Well, he's 17. By the time he's 22 most scouts project that he will be very large and probably slow.

 

He's a large, thick kid. Not the same body as his dad. Vlad Sr.'s rookie cards list him as 6'2", 165 lbs. Vlad Jr. is ALREADY listed as 6'1", 200 lbs.

 

200 lbs at 17!!!!

 

He'll probably break into the league with the body that his dad had at ~30 years old.

 

Unless he changes his diet and exercise. Which nowadays is extremely possible.

[Krylian]

Well, he's 17. By the time he's 22 most scouts project that he will be very large and probably slow.

 

He's a large, thick kid. Not the same body as his dad. Vlad Sr.'s rookie cards list him as 6'2", 165 lbs. Vlad Jr. is ALREADY listed as 6'1", 200 lbs.

 

200 lbs at 17!!!!

 

He'll probably break into the league with the body that his dad had at ~30 years old.

 

Roberto Osuna was a fat slob at 16-17. Guerrero Jr. can certainly change his body if he so chooses.

[KingKat]

Unless he changes his diet and exercise. Which nowadays is extremely possible.

 

Sure but you're rather obstinately missing the point. You don't project his future speed based on his stolen base total at his age in these leagues or based on wishful thinking about how his diet and exercise will transform him. You look at his body now and you project quite reasonably that he'll probably be a massive guy and not that fast. No, you don't know that 100% for sure but it's what makes sense based on the data you have now.

Edited July 22, 2016 by KingKat

[Laika]

Roberto Osuna was a fat slob at 16-17. Guerrero Jr. can certainly change his body if he so chooses.

 

He can certainly get in better shape or get ripped, but I wouldn't say that he can change his body type. His speed tool wouldn't change much or at all, even if he had 22s and rippling abs.

[Jonn]

I don't think its an unreasonable to think you could run faster and better weighing less and being more lean. I'm not saying hes going to become a track star. But if he gets "ripped" lets just say and is a good base runner this could be an underrated tool moving forward. You can use the excuse that catchers can't throw in short season ball I suppose. Hes taking advantage of it now. I kind of like a guy trying to do more on the field. Especially when hes been so successful.

[burlingtonbandit]

Vlad's BB rate was very low compared to other hitters in his era with comparable power (.200+ ISO). 26th lowest out of 145.

His K% was EXTREMELY low compared to those guys. 5th lowest out of 145.

 

He wasn't unique though. Nomar actually walked less and struck out less, while hitting for power. Mouses Alou and Carlos Lee had similar offensive profiles. Luis Gonzalez too. Albert Belle and Tino Martinez had only slightly higher K rates.

 

Albert Pujols sticks out as truly a generational talent, having struck out less often than Vlad, lauded for his preternatural contact skills, while hitting for significantly more power.

Kind of a shame to see Pujols languish as a below average player these days.

 

Another crazy stat is Pujols has 31 DRS at First base in 2007. I don't even know how thats possible.

[burlingtonbandit]

He can certainly get in better shape or get ripped, but I wouldn't say that he can change his body type. His speed tool wouldn't change much or at all, even if he had 22s and rippling abs.

 

Players can add speed at 17. If he trains hard enough it can jump up a grade.