Why Do Folk Still Hate Advanced stats?

[Spanky99]

Do you rather watch a ballgame and yell at starting line-ups(this goes both ways), managers, GM's and FO's!!! Why, it's a marathon, we're talking 162 games. 22 games in and I've found a lot of people, are besides themselves.(not healthy) We've had the same record to this day as we have last year. This team is really f***ing good and will be better than what they have shown. Everything will deviate from our SP/ BP and Bats... if you seriously can't wrap your minds around this... check there track records and please, use this chart and get a grip. We're really good. Discuss...

 

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/5025-Sabermetrics-Introduction-and-Discussion

 

 

I said GOOD DAY!

[Spanky99]

Please follow ballplayers and use these stats... through fangraphs.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/

[Spanky99]

PS. My Goal isn't to take your eye test and fun away, it's the number as a whole. Who's hot, who's not. Guys go in slumps all the time, at the beginning of the season it is easy to pin-point, this happens every year to guys all the time, you just wouldn't see the numbers in July or August, they differentiate largely now, but not then. Stay positive.

[Angrioter]

Talk me about run differential 2015 v 2016

[RealAccountant]

BC you have made them your God. And just like any religion now you suffer from mass divisions

[o2cui2i]

We've had the same record to this day as we have last year.

 

this team had 2 really long win streaks last year and played ridiculously good the last month. I wouldn't count on that working out again this year. Can't keep giving away games early and think they will naturally make them up later.

 

The pen has imploded too many times and the offense is just starting to not be a K machine. Sure they are better than the record they have now, but I wouldn't hold my breath on matching last seasons win total

[Olerud363]

Do you rather watch a ballgame and yell at starting line-ups(this goes both ways), managers, GM's and FO's!!! Why, it's a marathon, we're talking 162 games. 22 games in and I've found a lot of people, are besides themselves.(not healthy) We've had the same record to this day as we have last year. This team is really f***ing good and will be better than what they have shown. Everything will deviate from our SP/ BP and Bats... if you seriously can't wrap your minds around this... check there track records and please, use this chart and get a grip. We're really good. Discuss...

 

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/5025-Sabermetrics-Introduction-and-Discussion

 

I said GOOD DAY!

 

Run differential has gone negative. The bullpen has looked bad, which is frustrating. Tulo and Martin and EE look old (and they are relatively). Bautista looks OK but is the oldest of all...

 

What else -- Goins and Pillar look the pumpkin burst. The offense just looks bad, a combo of burst pumpkins and old guys.

 

Stro and Sanchez look mediocre. Dickey looks done.

 

Not saying it is all true.. just pointing out that there is a narrative that people are seeing and worrying about... and it is worrisome good players are old, young players aren't that good.

[Jimcanuck]

I don't hate advanced stats, use them all the time. Hate the overreliance on them.

[intentional wok]

this team had 2 really long win streaks last year and played ridiculously good the last month. I wouldn't count on that working out again this year. Can't keep giving away games early and think they will naturally make them up later.

 

The pen has imploded too many times and the offense is just starting to not be a K machine. Sure they are better than the record they have now, but I wouldn't hold my breath on matching last seasons win total

 

I'd agree somewhat here. Can't really rely on insane streaks to make up the difference. I don't think 10-12 is much of a hole, but things need to step up before a huge tear becomes necessary.

 

It's also just that it's really, really unfun to watch them lose in the way they've been losing. I care about the playoffs as much as everyone else, but sometimes I just want to enjoy a baseball game with the team I like. Games like Monday or the home opener are just three hours designed to piss you off.

[intentional wok]

I don't hate advanced stats, use them all the time. Hate the overreliance on them.

 

What is an over reliance of them?

[Olerud363]

Do you rather watch a ballgame and yell at starting line-ups(this goes both ways), managers, GM's and FO's!!! Why, it's a marathon, we're talking 162 games. 22 games in and I've found a lot of people, are besides themselves.(not healthy) We've had the same record to this day as we have last year. This team is really f***ing good and will be better than what they have shown. Everything will deviate from our SP/ BP and Bats... if you seriously can't wrap your minds around this... check there track records and please, use this chart and get a grip. We're really good. Discuss...

 

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/5025-Sabermetrics-Introduction-and-Discussion

 

 

 

 

I said GOOD DAY!

 

Thanks for the post. You are probably right in that there are illusions being created because of small sample size. However there are things to really worry about.

 

Like Ryan Goins. Part of the magic last year was Ryan Goins "Sticking". The story was he made some adjustment and was now a spunky 9 hitter that could get on base a bit for the top of the line up. Actually he sucked all along (maybe) and just had a little good luck last year.

 

R.A. Dickey - Part of the magic last year was R.A. Dickey was good R.A. Dickey for 4 months... now he just rots.

 

Marcus Stroman - the Stro show was suppose to be the ace -- now he's just another average guy

 

Just mentally it seems the bubble burst.. hopefully just a small sample size illusion and things turn around.

[o2cui2i]

I'd agree somewhat here. Can't really rely on insane streaks to make up the difference. I don't think 10-12 is much of a hole, but things need to step up before a huge tear becomes necessary.

 

It's also just that it's really, really unfun to watch them lose in the way they've been losing. I care about the playoffs as much as everyone else, but sometimes I just want to enjoy a baseball game with the team I like. Games like Monday or the home opener are just three hours designed to piss you off.

 

it's definitely not about winning every game because no one does, but the pain of losing games that seem so winnable. Our rotation has been better than hoped and not much else is as good as we thought it would be. It can still turn but there have been some fugly losses

[KingKat]

good players are old, young players aren't that good.

 

This sums up the situation pretty nicely. Team is trying to squeeze one last run out of an old core, a solid if unspectacular b cast and little potential support from the farm system. The only young core player is Stroman and he's a) has a relatively thin track record and has used a less than optimal approach.

[BigCecil]

I'd agree somewhat here. Can't really rely on insane streaks to make up the difference. I don't think 10-12 is much of a hole, but things need to step up before a huge tear becomes necessary.

 

It's also just that it's really, really unfun to watch them lose in the way they've been losing. I care about the playoffs as much as everyone else, but sometimes I just want to enjoy a baseball game with the team I like. Games like Monday or the home opener are just three hours designed to piss you off.

 

That's what I'm finding. The WAY they are losing is so tough to take. Maddening. Last nite I didn't PVR or watch it after 1-0. That's something I never do. I just knew Sale vs RA was a blow out. We need a spark. It will come. I tend to agree with Spanky but doubts are creeping into my mind from time to time that we aren't as good as I thought we would be. And that 2015 was in part based on some unrepeatable performances.

[FrozenRopes]

Do you rather watch a ballgame and yell at starting line-ups(this goes both ways), managers, GM's and FO's!!! Why, it's a marathon, we're talking 162 games. 22 games in and I've found a lot of people, are besides themselves.(not healthy) We've had the same record to this day as we have last year. This team is really f***ing good and will be better than what they have shown. Everything will deviate from our SP/ BP and Bats... if you seriously can't wrap your minds around this... check there track records and please, use this chart and get a grip. We're really good. Discuss...

 

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/5025-Sabermetrics-Introduction-and-Discussion

 

 

I said GOOD DAY!

 

Because the game is played by humans. Not machines. Stats are not beautiful, the game of baseball is.

[onwego]

To each their own. It's not fun to crunch numbers for free if one gets paid very well to do so.

 

To paraphrase some media column: "I just watched the Giants win a third WS in five yea and all they showed up with was 1-2 starting pitchers, a closer and two bats that struck fear. And nobody predicted it and nobody cares outside Giants fans."

[o2cui2i]

This sums up the situation pretty nicely. Team is trying to squeeze one last run out of an old core, a solid if unspectacular b cast and little potential support from the farm system. The only young core player is Stroman and he's a) has a relatively thin track record and has used a less than optimal approach.

 

They might cash in on Ed and Jose in july if the Jays are out of reach. I would do it if the jays are 10 games back in July.

[Angrioter]

Do you rather watch a ballgame and yell at starting line-ups(this goes both ways), managers, GM's and FO's!!! Why, it's a marathon, we're talking 162 games. 22 games in and I've found a lot of people, are besides themselves.(not healthy) We've had the same record to this day as we have last year. This team is really f***ing good and will be better than what they have shown. Everything will deviate from our SP/ BP and Bats... if you seriously can't wrap your minds around this... check there track records and please, use this chart and get a grip. We're really good. Discuss...

 

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/5025-Sabermetrics-Introduction-and-Discussion

 

 

I said GOOD DAY!

 

http://33.media.tumblr.com/4db5a8ba4324c758d241f5267b94dc4d/tumblr_np2h1srRjY1rq1pj8o1_500.gif

[Dick_Pole]

They might cash in on Ed and Jose in july if the Jays are out of reach. I would do it if the jays are 10 games back in July.

 

10 back of what though? Division or playoffs? With a second wild card and (expected) parity in the AL, the team would have to be something like 15 games under .500 to be 10 back of a playoff spot. It's practically impossible not to be a contender in July nowadays.

[Olerud363]

This sums up the situation pretty nicely. Team is trying to squeeze one last run out of an old core, a solid if unspectacular b cast and little potential support from the farm system. The only young core player is Stroman and he's a) has a relatively thin track record and has used a less than optimal approach.

 

I would guess the Jays of 2013-2016 are an 85 win team. Randomness give you dud seasons (high 70s) and good seasons (low 90s)

 

What we see the last weeks is the bubble bursting. It's not a true talent 95 win team, it's 85.. which is scary to people cuz you need a little good randomness to make the playoffs, a little bad randomness will make the season an 78-82 win dud.

[dineke]

wouldn't mind if they blew it up at the deadline actually.

[burlingtonbandit]

wouldn't mind if they blew it up at the deadline actually.

 

Raptors fan mentality.

[RealAccountant]

wouldn't mind if they blew it up at the deadline actually.

 

The idea that we are going to get a boat load of prospects/young players is really overrated and not true. The only marketable player is really Bautista. No one is going to pay for a DH bat in EE, Dickey have been DFAd by then, and as for Cecil, I dont think you get much their either

 

At the most it will be a prospect or two and not much after that. Just take the pics, and move on.

 

Lets see what Shapiro can do. Sure does talk a big game.

[Statman]

Do you rather watch a ballgame and yell at starting line-ups(this goes both ways), managers, GM's and FO's!!! Why, it's a marathon, we're talking 162 games. 22 games in and I've found a lot of people, are besides themselves.(not healthy) We've had the same record to this day as we have last year. This team is really f***ing good and will be better than what they have shown. Everything will deviate from our SP/ BP and Bats... if you seriously can't wrap your minds around this... check there track records and please, use this chart and get a grip. We're really good. Discuss...

 

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/5025-Sabermetrics-Introduction-and-Discussion

 

 

I said GOOD DAY!

 

Dat negative run differential.

[Spanky99]

Dat negative run differential.

 

Dat 22 games in.

[KinofChaos]

Nothing wrong with advanced stats, people who think they are the be all end all are annoying though.

[Spanky99]

Because the game is played by humans. Not machines. Stats are not beautiful, the game of baseball is.

 

Uhmm... nvm.

[John_Havok]

Because the game is played by humans. Not machines. Stats are not beautiful, the game of baseball is.

 

And it's even more beautiful when it's played by good players instead of scrubs like Goins, Carrera, Colabello ....

[Boxcar]

Nothing wrong with advanced stats, people who think they are the be all end all are annoying though.

 

People who use "eye test" with an obvious huge home team bias are even worse.

[Maahfaace]

Dat negative run differential.

 

Curious, but to lazy to look it up....what was the jays run differential last year at 22 games?