How much has one start changed your opinion on Aaron Sanchez?

[Brownie19]

Aaron Sanchez has a career MLB ERA of 2.69. I'm not saying that's sustainable, but it's pretty damn good for 163 IP.

 

We may soon need to start the debate of whether he'll be a HOFer...

[KingKat]

Aaron Sanchez has a career MLB ERA of 2.69. I'm not saying that's sustainable, but it's pretty damn good for 163 IP.

 

It seems like he either pitches well of doesn't really get punished when he doesn't. He didn't look nearly as good as a starter last year as he does this year but his ERA was still a very respectable 3.55.

[burlingtonbandit]

if he can stay healthy he looks like a number 3 starter.

[Stoneyen]

It's really crazy how good he's been against righties. He's only given up 8 XBH in 86 IP against right handers.

[Dr. Dinger]

He also has a career BABIP of .238 which clearly isn't sustainable, but I expect his BABIP would be slightly lower than average given the GB rate.

 

Another random stat: If he keeps pitching like this he would be a 2.5 WAR pitcher over 140 innings

 

He has the 2nd highest career GB% among active SPs, behind only Brett Anderson. He's actually ahead of Keuchel in that regard. A career ERA below 3 isn't going to happen, but Jaime Garcia is a plausible ceiling for him.

[Laika]

He also has a career BABIP of .238 which clearly isn't sustainable, but I expect his BABIP would be slightly lower than average given the GB rate.

 

Another random stat: If he keeps pitching like this he would be a 2.5 WAR pitcher over 140 innings

 

Oh, you've got this backwards. GB% actually has a positive correlation with BABIP (as in, higher GB% = higher BABIP).

 

It's the flyball pitchers like Estrada that you'd expect to have a lower than average BABIP.

 

Groundballs go for hits more often than flyballs. Of course, the vast majority of groundball hits are singles, so in general groundballs have a lower run value than flyballs and groundballs tend to be good.

[Stoneyen]

Oh, you've got this backwards. GB% actually has a positive correlation with BABIP (as in, higher GB% = higher BABIP).

 

It's the flyball pitchers like Estrada that you'd expect to have a lower than average BABIP.

 

Groundballs go for hits more often than flyballs. Of course, the vast majority of groundball hits are singles, so in general groundballs have a lower run value than flyballs and groundballs tend to be good.

 

I swear I've seen Sanchez mentioned as a potential FIP beater because of the extreme GB rate. Maybe it was someone as clueless as me

[Cyborg]

Oh, you've got this backwards. GB% actually has a positive correlation with BABIP (as in, higher GB% = higher BABIP).

 

It's the flyball pitchers like Estrada that you'd expect to have a lower than average BABIP.

 

Groundballs go for hits more often than flyballs. Of course, the vast majority of groundball hits are singles, so in general groundballs have a lower run value than flyballs and groundballs tend to be good.

 

Actually its not linear. Line drives are the culprit of BABIP and extreme pitchers on either side of the GB/FB spectrum have lower BABIPs.

[Laika]

Actually its not linear. Line drives are the culprit of BABIP and extreme pitchers on either side of the GB/FB spectrum have lower BABIPs.

 

you're not linear

[Laika]

Actually its not linear. Line drives are the culprit of BABIP and extreme pitchers on either side of the GB/FB spectrum have lower BABIPs.

 

http://i.imgur.com/3OSv46O.png

(GB v BABIP)

 

- yes extreme flyball pitchers have low babips, as expected

- yes it appears that extreme GB pitchers escape the trendline, like bubbles off the top of a carbonated beverage

- no it does not appear that extreme GB pitchers (upper 50's and 60+ % range) have lower than average babips. Rather, their expected babip looks to be about league average. Yes, this is lower than the expected babip of a non-extreme GB pitcher.

 

Honestly the GB% plot just kind of looks like a big blob, except for the FB dudes in the bottom left. The FB plot looks much more linear, unlike you:

 

http://i.imgur.com/Jsrg0bt.png

[Jimcanuck]

Quite a scatter plot. Shows a general trend but can't use this to predict results for any individual pitcher.

[Laika]

I swear I've seen Sanchez mentioned as a potential FIP beater because of the extreme GB rate. Maybe it was someone as clueless as me

 

In the context of Toronto's really good infield defense, maybe.

[93 Jays]

if he can stay healthy he looks like a number 3 starter.

 

I kinda agree but I think his ceiling is still as a no 1 on a lot of teams. He's learning on the fly and it looks like his work and friendship with Stroman are paying off huge dividends. I think by years end, he develops his change up and changes from that number 3 or 4 guy to a potential ace. I love the fact that he's learning from one of the hardest workers in pro sports like Stroman. It will eventually rub off, as will the confidence and swagger. I love Marcus and I'm fully aware he's our number 1. But I wouldn't be surprised at all by years end to see them neck and neck and that's a huge plus for us jays fans.

[Stoneyen]

Poor start yesterday. Not very many whiffs, too many walks and it wasn't the umpire's fault. The positive is the Jays still won even though Sanchez did not have even close to his best stuff yesterday.

 

He had poor command of the two seam and left like 25-30 pitches up and arm side way out of the zone.

[Yorkshire Blue Jay]

He's allowed to not have his best stuff every start, as you say the good thing is that in the end he only gave up 3 hits and one run and that run was largely based on Saunders 'attempt' to catch a routine fly ball.

 

We have way bigger concerns than Sanchez starting every 5 days, the bullpen and lack of expected offensive production is costing us wins and Sanchez isn't.

[Atothe]

He's allowed to not have his best stuff every start, as you say the good thing is that in the end he only gave up 3 hits and one run and that run was largely based on Saunders 'attempt' to catch a routine fly ball.

 

We have way bigger concerns than Sanchez starting every 5 days, the bullpen and lack of expected offensive production is costing us wins and Sanchez isn't.

 

5 walks is never acceptable

[Krylian]

5 walks is never acceptable

 

But they were competitive. That has to count for something.

[burlingtonbandit]

Poor start yesterday. Not very many whiffs, too many walks and it wasn't the umpire's fault. The positive is the Jays still won even though Sanchez did not have even close to his best stuff yesterday.

 

He had poor command of the two seam and left like 25-30 pitches up and arm side way out of the zone.

 

Have to remember the Giants have a pretty good offence. Sanchez still seems to have issues with LHH.

[Jimcanuck]

5 walks is never acceptable

 

Wrong. > 4 BB/9 is unacceptable

 

Sanchez is 3 BB/9 for his last 10 starts

[Grant77]

5 walks is never acceptable

 

It is acceptable if you don't give up any hard hit balls, though not ideal.

[43211234]

Sanchez was really labouring by the 7th. He had lost ~3 mph on both fastballs.

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=592717&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=inning&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&startDate=05/08/2016&endDate=05/10/2016

[Yorkshire Blue Jay]

5 walks is never acceptable

 

Everyone would prefer them not to happen but they do, even to the best pitchers in the game.

 

I preferred his 7 inning, 3 hit, 5 BB, 1 run performance last night than his 4.1 inning, 10 hit, 1 BB, 6 run start against Oakland recently.

[ProfessionalAtBat]

shoulda been more

 

spent way too much time multitablign poker, tv, twitch, movies etc, abc robot 123

 

I am at 99 k of winning the last 6 months. But I do it for a living ... Only cash

[baseballsss]

I am at 99 k of winning the last 6 months. But I do it for a living ... Only cash

 

Until you put "f*** BTS" in $100 bill no one believes you

[WONDERBAT]

One thing I dont get about Sanchez is why he insist on being a Fastball only pitcher, he could be much more efficient if he worked his curveball out. This "they're hot hitting it so why throw anything else" mentality isn't going to work forever.

[Brownie19]

One thing I dont get about Sanchez is why he insist on being a Fastball only pitcher, he could be much more efficient if he worked his curveball out. This "they're hot hitting it so why throw anything else" mentality isn't going to work forever.

 

He's using his curve & change about 25% of the time (combined). That isn't all that bad...

[Grant77]

One thing I dont get about Sanchez is why he insist on being a Fastball only pitcher, he could be much more efficient if he worked his curveball out. This "they're hot hitting it so why throw anything else" mentality isn't going to work forever.

 

Why not? It worked for Mariano Rivera. All kidding aside, it's a huge advantage when you don't have to show your offspeed stuff until the third time through the order.

[ProfessionalAtBat]

Until you put "f*** BTS" in $100 bill no one believes you

 

...

[GD]

omg

[vdubmvp]

Yeah, that's pretty hilarious.