How much has one start changed your opinion on Aaron Sanchez?

[Boxcar]

Am I wrong? He threw something like ~90 fastballs and his command was mediocre at best. Walked 4 and could have been more if not for some generous strike calls. Not to mention his velocity was steadily decreasing. Don't think his success is sustainable only he gets his secondary pitches working but we'll see.

 

You're not but there are a lot of Sanchez fanboiz here.

[Boxcar]

Dirty Sanchez is filthy, is there a better #5 in the league?

 

Kyle Hendricks

Alex Wood

Jerad Eickoff

Bartolo Colon

 

Possibly more but that's just off memory.

[Angrioter]

Kyle Hendricks

Alex Wood

Jerad Eickoff

Bartolo Colon

 

Possibly more but that's just off memory.

 

Matt Moore

Eickhoff is a #2. That f***ing Curveball is plus plus + 93 MPH heat

[RealAccountant]

A lot, he has come a long way. My favorite part of his last start was when he struck out Hanley, after walking Ortiz.

[Grant77]

If it were any other pitcher, the fact that a young guy can make quality starts with 1 pitch would be encouraging.

[jays76]

Kyle Hendricks

Alex Wood

Jerad Eickoff

Bartolo Colon

 

Possibly more but that's just off memory.

 

Not too shabby indeed. Considering age and upside though I'd probably hold on to him him over any of those guys (outside of Eickoff). Maybe Hendricks but I'd be skeptical and uneasy about pulling the trigger. Colon is old as dirt and Wood doesn't have as high a ceiling.

[Boxcar]

Not too shabby indeed. Considering age and upside though I'd probably hold on to him him over any of those guys (outside of Eickoff). Maybe Hendricks but I'd be skeptical and uneasy about pulling the trigger. Colon is old as dirt and Wood doesn't have as high a ceiling.

 

Where is the ceiling, though? Sanchez showed flashes of greatness vs. TB, to the point where even I overreacted, but lots of pitchers can have a game like that. Hell, John Lackey just struck out 11 Cardinals last night.

 

Sure, Sanchez throws hard but I have yet to see anything of his that is especially filthy, consistently, and he doesn't have great command or miss bats.

 

Kyle Hendricks and Jerad Eickoff both throw like 5-6 mph slower than Sanchez and both are better at getting strikeouts.

[Angrioter]

Where is the ceiling, though? Sanchez showed flashes of greatness vs. TB, to the point where even I overreacted, but lots of pitchers can have a game like that. Hell, John Lackey just struck out 11 Cardinals last night.

 

Sure, Sanchez throws hard but I have yet to see anything of his that is especially filthy, consistently, and he doesn't have great command or miss bats.

 

Kyle Hendricks and Jerad EickHoff both throw like 5-6 mph slower than Sanchez and both are better at getting strikeouts.

 

Jerad Eickhoff curveball 7/8 so far

[frizzer1]

So,if he pitches all season like this, a lot of you guys are not going to be impressed??

Yikes!

[Angrioter]

So,if he pitches all season like this, a lot of you guys are not going to be impressed??

Yikes!

 

Imposible. Unsustainable. If Sanchez continue to pitching like he's pitching today (poor command, limited repertoire, no missing bats) his ERA will be in the 4.00 to 4,20 range. The dingers will comes.

[Spanky99]

So,if he pitches all season like this, a lot of you guys are not going to be impressed??

Yikes!

 

Of course I would.

[Atothe]

Andrew Walker called him dominant and a stud. Embarrassing

[Grant77]

Imposible. Unsustainable. If Sanchez continue to pitching like he's pitching today (poor command, limited repertoire, no missing bats) his ERA will be in the 4.00 to 4,20 range. The dingers will comes.

 

I'm not sure that home runs will ever be a big problem for Sanchez, but a ~4 ERA is what I projected in the offseason and most people, including you, thought that was out to lunch. Nice to see some recognition that I got it right.

[Angrioter]

I'm not sure that home runs will ever be a big problem for Sanchez, but a ~4 ERA is what I projected in the offseason and most people, including you, thought that was out to lunch. Nice to see some recognition that I got it right.

 

I traded for him for some reason. Aaron is the same guy with a little different thing that we all don't know.

[Spanky99]

The same guy is partially good though.

 

He is death on RHB still. 7 XBH in career to RHB. 0 home runs.

 

But this year he is better vs. LHB. Last year his K%-BB% was -3.5%. This year it's 11.4%. Control vs. LHB is slightly improved. K% is a mirage but it will still be better than the past because of the 4 seamer.

 

Sanchez is still elite vs. RHB. Improved vs. LHB. Slightly better control overall. Makes a better pitcher. It's not going to hit you right in the face. They are all small improvements.

 

I want to see the change-up back. That outing was a cock tease.

[Angrioter]

The same guy is partially good though.

 

He is death on RHB still. 7 XBH in career to RHB. 0 home runs.

 

But this year he is better vs. LHB. Last year his K%-BB% was -3.5%. This year it's 11.4%. Control vs. LHB is slightly improved. K% is a mirage but it will still be better than the past because of the 4 seamer.

 

Sanchez is still elite vs. RHB. Improved vs. LHB. Slightly better control overall. Makes a better pitcher. It's not going to hit you right in the face. They are all small improvements.

 

Called Strikeouts bro. He's no fooling anybody.

[DaKiNdLa]

Called Strikeouts bro. He's no fooling anybody.

 

I don't know if I can agree with this. I'm sure I missed some literature on this, but what exactly is WRONG with called strikeouts? I realize its leaving the call in the umps hand but if your so nasty the batter won't even offer at the pitch isn't that better then him swinging and having the potential for a hit? No swing = no hit?

[Cyborg]

I don't know if I can agree with this. I'm sure I missed some literature on this, but what exactly is WRONG with called strikeouts? I realize its leaving the call in the umps hand but if your so nasty the batter won't even offer at the pitch isn't that better then him swinging and having the potential for a hit? No swing = no hit?

They are more random and less skill based. Sanchez is starting to get to the point where they may be a skill however.

 

Getting a swing is much better though, since usually to strike someone out you have to throw out of the zone.

[DaKiNdLa]

They are more random and less skill based. Sanchez is starting to get to the point where they may be a skill however.

 

Getting a swing is much better though, since usually to strike someone out you have to throw out of the zone.

 

And this makes sense, and I understand the sustainability arguement but I feel like pitches that can consistently fool batters within the 'zone are just as valuable if not more? Pitches that have high swing (and miss) rates have to be more prone to BABIP variation?

[Stoneyen]

They are more random and less skill based. Sanchez is starting to get to the point where they may be a skill however.

 

Getting a swing is much better though, since usually to strike someone out you have to throw out of the zone.

 

How long does it take for called strikeouts to stabilize?

[Cyborg]

And this makes sense, and I understand the sustainability arguement but I feel like pitches that can consistently fool batters within the 'zone are just as valuable if not more? Pitches that have high swing (and miss) rates have to be more prone to BABIP variation?

Pitchers that allow more contact are subject to more BABIP variation, but variation is not a "bad" thing. The variation could be equally as good as it could be bad. There is no "right" way either. Clayton Kershaw is usually near the bottom of Zone Swinging percent (highest %).

[metafour]

Aaron Sanchez ranks 11th in all of MLB among starters (and tops on the Jays) in a newly created "Stuff" metric which looks to quantify the age-old "stuff" term that commentators will routinely throw out.

 

http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/who-has-the-best-stuff-in-baseball-volume-1/

 

I've been stating for a long time that regardless of his raw metrics (strikeouts, walks), Sanchez is a pitcher that will out-perform what he is "expected" to do for the mere fact that predictive formulas cant quantify how hard it is to actually hit his pitches. This new metric is a starting-point which may begin to finally quantify why he's able to minimize runs despite walking batters and not striking out as many as he "should".

[Spanky99]

He needs better fastball command for the change up to work. If hitters have to respect him throwing 2 straight fastballs for a called strike every at-bat then they will have to take the bat off their shoulders and hunt fastball. At that point the change works.

 

The Rays are the most aggressive team in baseball. They didn't even care about his command, they were chasing fastball right from the first pitch.

 

NYY and BOS go up there to take. Change falls off the table and they don't care. Very few NYY and BOS hitters swung on first pitch, maybe the LHB and Bogaerts.

 

Sanchez has almost the lowest swing% in MLB because hitters would rather take their chances on walking then lifting the fastball off the ground. Once he shows he can get to 0-2 consistently then the swing% will go up. Once it goes up the change up will work.

 

Fair points, but completely abandoning it seems odd.

Edited April 19, 2016 by Spanky99

[GD]

Aaron Sanchez ranks 11th in all of MLB among starters (and tops on the Jays) in a newly created "Stuff" metric which looks to quantify the age-old "stuff" term that commentators will routinely throw out.

 

http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/who-has-the-best-stuff-in-baseball-volume-1/

 

I've been stating for a long time that regardless of his raw metrics (strikeouts, walks), Sanchez is a pitcher that will out-perform what he is "expected" to do for the mere fact that predictive formulas cant quantify how hard it is to actually hit his pitches. This new metric is a starting-point which may begin to finally quantify why he's able to minimize runs despite walking batters and not striking out as many as he "should".

 

This study is just a random stat as of now, it didn't really show off any of the predictive relationships it claims to have. Someone should probably get on that, maybe there's something there.

 

Can't really go around bragging yet, though.

[Angrioter]

And now Aaron Sanchez have his own metrics. Weak contact, low whiffs, and high walks rate are a positive skillset

[jays76]

Where is the ceiling, though? Sanchez showed flashes of greatness vs. TB, to the point where even I overreacted, but lots of pitchers can have a game like that. Hell, John Lackey just struck out 11 Cardinals last night.

 

Sure, Sanchez throws hard but I have yet to see anything of his that is especially filthy, consistently, and he doesn't have great command or miss bats.

 

Kyle Hendricks and Jerad Eickoff both throw like 5-6 mph slower than Sanchez and both are better at getting strikeouts.

 

I think he's got the ceiling of a consistent no. 2 after he develops his secondaries more and reigns in his control issues. Ultimately he's a work in progress and a big project but he's also pretty young. I think with a little seasoning and a few years under his belt he's going to be a pretty reliable starter.

[metafour]

This study is just a random stat as of now, it didn't really show off any of the predictive relationships it claims to have. Someone should probably get on that, maybe there's something there.

 

They did use the statistic in positively analyzing the JA Happ signing this past offseason (compared to guys like Leake, Samardzija, Cueto). One of the takeaways they uncovered is that Happ is one of the rare pitcher's who's "stuff" has actually improved with age. So far this season, his "stuff" is actually even better than it was a year ago which may indeed be a sign for further positive expectation from him. He actually ranks second behind Sanchez to date.

 

http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/let-it-happ-en/

[Jimcanuck]

2 things:

 

1. predictive stats don't work for all pitchers.... if you think they do, you don't understand stats fundamentals

 

2. same people that are Sanchez skeptics were calling Hutch the best SP for most of last season based on peripherals

[Laika]

Why the hell do you idiots have to make it so hard to just cheer for Sanchez? Ugh.

[Jimcanuck]

Why the hell do you idiots have to make it so hard to just cheer for Sanchez? Ugh.

 

Stop crying

 

You actually find it harder to cheer for Sanchez because of this debate? LOL