The perils of locking up Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista

[Terminator]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/14823719/the-perils-locking-edwin-encarnacion-jose-bautista-mlb

 

Tony Blengino

Special to ESPN.com

 

The juggernaut that was the Toronto Blue Jays' offense was one of the best stories of the 2015 season. In fact, it was one I wrote about in this very space, saying a case can be made for it being the best offense of this century. Anytime a club reaches such historic offensive heights, there usually are surprise contributors, Chris Colabello and Devon Travis (when healthy) in the Jays' case. There are also go-to heavyweights in place, such as Toronto's three-headed monster of MVP Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista.

 

Encarnacion and Bautista have been Toronto bellwethers for quite a while now, and the club's investment in both has paid off handsomely. Both will play the final year of six-year contracts in 2016, with Encarnacion being paid $10 million and Bautista $14 million in deals that guaranteed them totals of $43 million and $78 million, respectively. The Jays have been handsomely repaid with 18.8 WAR from Encarnacion and 32.6 WAR from Bautista, bargain rates of $2.3 million and $2.4 million per WAR. Not too shabby.

 

Both of these stalwarts are slated to hit the free-agent market together at the end of the 2016 season, and the Jays have indicated an early willingness to keep both players around for the long term. There are enough underlying subplots here that will make this courtship one of the more intriguing off-field storylines to follow this season. Today we look at those.

 

First, there is the turnover that has taken place at the top of the baseball operations department. The bulk of the two players' tenure in Toronto has occurred with president Paul Beeston and general manager Alex Anthopoulos in place. Most clubs coming off 93-69 seasons are models of stability in the prime decision-making roles, but not this one.

 

Former Indians' GM and president Mark Shapiro was brought in to replace the retiring Beeston, and after a brief period of uneasy coexistence, Anthopoulos stepped down and was replaced by another former Indians exec, Ross Atkins. The men who will be making the call on these important contract decisions are not the ones who have established long and productive relationships with these two players.

 

The second key point is one that is applicable to every pending free-agent situation throughout the game. The golden rule is to pay free agents to be not for what they have already done, but for what they are likely to do moving forward. It's a very tough call when the player is on the near side of age 30, and arguably still in his prime. In theory, it's a much easier one when players are ages 33 and 35, as Encarnacion and Bautista are. It's not that simple, however. We need to examine each player's specific situation to determine whether the Jays should place big bets on them moving forward.

 

The comps

 

For both players, I identified a group of comparables based on their respective production, age and years as a regular. I weeded out a few comps with similar overall production, but dramatically different OBP and SLG profiles. First, let's look at Encarnacion's comps:

 

Edwin Encarnacion Comparables

PLAYER OPS+ TO AGE 32 CONT. SCORE TO 32 REM. YEARS REM. OPS+ REM. C. SCORE

Scott Rolen 128.8 139.4 4 111.5 107.8

Roger Maris 128.7 130.6 1 105.0 103.0

Willie Horton 128.3 156.2 5 100.2 117.8

Mark Teixeira 128.3 133.5 2 123.5 114.5

Ernie Lombardi 128.1 131.4 5 122.8 127.2

Edwin Encarnacion 128.1 120.2 N/A N/A N/A

Roy Sievers 127.8 137.5 4 129.5 137.2

John Mayberry 127.5 122.5 0 N/A N/A

Steve Garvey 127.2 140.0 5 103.2 111.0

Average 128.1 134.6 3.25 113.3 118.9

 

Encarnacion played 2015 at age 32, and it was his ninth year as a regular. The comps were all 32 years old, and had between eight and 10 years as regulars at that time. The left-most column lists their career OPS+ after their age-32 season. The next column lists their Contact Score -- their production on all balls in play, compared to the league average of 100 -- through age 32.

 

Next up is the number of additional years each player lasted as a regular after age 32, and the final two columns list each player's OPS+ and Contact Score for those post age-32 seasons. (One note: Sal Bando, Tony Gwynn, Mike Hargrove and Roy White also made the initial comp list, but were dropped because of very different OBP/SLG profiles compared with Encarnacion.)

 

The results aren't very pretty. The players as a group averaged only 3.25 seasons as regulars after age 32, though that figure may increase a bit as Teixeira's career continues. Encarnacion still has a season under team control, so these players averaged 2.25 additional years of service after age 33, the point at which Encarnacion can enter the free-agent market. The two players arguably most comparable to Encarnacion in terms of Contact Score and K/BB profile, Roger Maris and John Mayberry, lasted a single combined season after age 32 between them.

 

Perhaps more importantly, the production of these players dropped off quite a bit after age 32; the group's cumulative OPS+ and Contact Score both decline by 12 percent. Encarnacion is basically a pure DH at this point, and a 113 OPS+ moving forward makes him a very marginal asset. Only one of the group of comps improved after age 32 in Roy Sievers, though by a very small amount.

 

Let's perform the same analysis with Bautista:

 

Jose Bautista Comparables

PLAYER OPS+ TO AGE 34 CONT. SCORE TO 34 REM. YEARS REM. OPS+ REM. CONT. SCORE

Al Simmons 138.6 171.6 3 105.6 116.0

Will Clark 137.8 145.8 0 N/A N/A

Billy Williams 137.4 145.1 4 115.5 108.0

Tony Oliva 136.9 150.4 2 106.0 100.5

Minnie Minoso 136.4 135.6 2 95.0 85.5

Matt Holliday 136.0 148.2 N/A N/A N/A

Jose Bautista 135.8 127.1 N/A N/A N/A

David Ortiz 134.8 148.9 5 153.8 144.0

Dave Winfield 134.8 137.4 7 121.4 127.6

Bobby Abreu 134.7 146.8 3 111.7 108.0

Bill Nicholson 134.5 151.6 0 N/A N/A

Mo Vaughn 134.4 173.6 0 N/A N/A

Average 136.0 148.5 2.6 120.6 118.8

 

When I first identified the group of comps, using age 34 and between nine and 11 years as a regular (Bautista has 10), the group was very thin, including Oliva, Minoso, Holliday, Abreu and Vaughn. That group played only seven total seasons as regulars after age 34. Given Bautista's current excellence, and his unusual late breakthrough, I expanded the group to include players with between eight and 12 years as regulars, giving us the group above. (In this case, Joe Morgan, Rod Carew and Sammy Sosa were dropped from the group because of large OBP/SLG profile disparities.)

 

The group lasted an average 2.6 seasons as regulars after age 34, 1.6 after age 35, the age Bautista will be when he would hit the market, not including Ortiz's 2016 farewell season. There are two comforting cases of Ortiz and Dave Winfield, however, who were productive in the vicinity of age 40.

 

But again, there's a significant drop-off in production, with the group OPS+ declining by 11 percent and Contact Score declining by 20 percent after age 34. The players who relied on thump alone, without a strong K/BB foundation, plunged after age 34; Vaughn, Simmons, Nicholson and Oliva front that group.

 

Bautista has a better current K/BB foundation than any of his comps did at age 34, enhancing his chances to remain productive moving forward. Once an average-ish right fielder whose arm strength was his best defensive asset, Bautista is now a DH-in-waiting, with a very limited shelf life as a serviceable outfielder.

 

The comps enable us to make some big-picture generalizations, but let's briefly drill down into specifics regarding Encarnacion's and Bautista's specific offensive games. Both players stand out because of their ability to hit for power while maintaining low strikeout rates. That said, Encarnacion's K rate, while still strong, has increased from 10 to 16 percent in just two seasons. In addition, his average BIP authority, which had been over a full standard deviation higher than league average from 2011-14, was just over one-half standard deviation above average in 2015.

 

The hitting profiles

 

Encarnacion is an extreme pull hitter with an extreme popup tendency, whose liner rate has been below league average in six of the past seven seasons. Encarnacion is also routinely over-shifted in the infield, and can be counted upon to bat in the .100s on ground balls, putting a hard cap on his batting average. It's all about BIP authority moving forward, and I'd expect Encarnacion to age typically in relation to his comps.

 

As for Bautista, many of the things I've just said about his teammate also apply to him. Extreme pull? Check. Extreme popup? Check. Miniscule liner rates? Check. In fact, Bautista's liner rate was the lowest among AL regulars in 2015, and since 2008, his liner rate percentile rank has never been higher than 17. Thus, he too has a hard cap on his batting average.

 

There's one big difference between the two players, however, and it's in the biggest performance driver category for this type of player: BIP authority. Bautista's average velocity off the bat was over two full standard deviations above league average last season, his best single-season mark ever. That's up in Miguel Cabrera territory. In addition, his walk rate was over two full standard deviations higher than league average. He has very far to fall in those two categories, which should allow him to thrive for a while.

 

So what should the Jays do?

 

Under no circumstances should the Blue Jays sign both Encarnacion and Bautista. There is room for only one DH in an AL lineup, and by the time the 2017 season rolls around, both of these players will be pure DHs. If both players perform in the 120-125 OPS+ range in 2016, a fair yet conservative estimate, they likely will be seeking three-plus-year deals at $20 million-plus per season.

 

Going forward, it's very unlikely that Encarnacion will be worth $20 million, even on a one-year deal, in 2017. He is not a standout among his comp group, he's already a pure DH, and has already begun to show some decline in BIP authority, the driver of his upside. His K/BB foundation gives him a high floor, while hit authority controls his ceiling.

 

 

And the winner is ... Jose Bautista, who is more likely to maintain his production than Encarnacion. David Manning/USA TODAY Sports

I'd be more inclined to explore an extension with Bautista. He still has at least a few strands of defensive utility remaining, and his BIP authority remains at the top of the scale. He's arguably the best age-34 performer among his comp group, killing the baseball with an elite BB rate, more than offsetting his weaknesses, chief among them his extreme pull tendency and subpar performance on grounders it brings.

 

Like his comp Ortiz, Bautista has shown the ability to at least partially address his shortcomings; his K rate was once a weakness, and his popup rate was once much worse than it is today. I'd let the 2016 season begin to play out, then explore a three-year deal with a vesting option for Year 4 with Bautista.

[Terminator]

Pretty good article. His conclusion is that there is no way the Jays should sign both guys to extensions as they will be DH's (or at least should be) in 2017. He ultimately settles on resigning Bautista over EE.

[Angrioter]

Good read

[burlingtonbandit]

I'd much rather sign Bautista even if it costs 4/85 compared to Edwin at 3/60. I think Bautista ages better than those comps.

[CHRIS]

Pretty good article. His conclusion is that there is no way the Jays should sign both guys to extensions as they will be DH's (or at least should be) in 2017. He ultimately settles on resigning Bautista over EE.

 

I agree with this sentiment. Bautista just seems more athletic, more cerebral, and for what it's worth, just more engrained with the baseball culture of this city. Even if he has to move out of RF to 1B or DH, he could still conceivably play OF in the extreme circumstances that it may be required.

[Frenchsoup]

I'd much rather sign Bautista even if it costs 4/85 compared to Edwin at 3/60. I think Bautista ages better than those comps.

 

These estimates seem really low BB. Quite frankly, they both deserve a lot more...

[Jonn]

If we sign one great. But if the other goes to the Red Sox than f*** everybody. Anyone but the f***ing Red Sox.

[Trouba95]

He has got to make the transition to 1B.

[burlingtonbandit]

These estimates seem really low BB. Quite frankly, they both deserve a lot more...

 

I could see JB getting 100 Million but I don't see Edwin getting much. His market is really limited to just a few teams.

[Governator]

These estimates seem really low BB. Quite frankly, they both deserve a lot more...

 

Deserve doesn't equal expected value.

[Stangstag]

If we sign one great. But if the other goes to the Red Sox than f*** everybody. Anyone but the f***ing Red Sox.

 

It might actually be good if the Redsox sign Edwin. Then they could be stuck with THREE overpaid 1B/DH types.

[Stangstag]

These estimates seem really low BB. Quite frankly, they both deserve a lot more...

 

I think between 4/80 and 4/90 is what Bautista will get.

[Jonn]

It might actually be good if the Redsox sign Edwin. Then they could be stuck with THREE overpaid 1B/DH types.

 

Problem is they never seem to be stuck with anything. They keep spending regardless.

[Frenchsoup]

Problem is they never seem to be stuck with anything. They keep spending regardless.

 

Rusney's contract is pretty large

[G-Snarls]

I'd much rather sign Bautista even if it costs 4/85 compared to Edwin at 3/60. I think Bautista ages better than those comps.

 

Agree 100%

 

Plus extra intangible stuff makes him the more likely choice

[Slugger]

It is a little odd to the think that Bautista doesn't have many comparable's, particularly if he has another typical season by his standards.

[Terminator]

If we sign one great. But if the other goes to the Red Sox than f*** everybody. Anyone but the f***ing Red Sox.

 

Bautista in a Red Sox uni would suck ass.

[GD]

Wow, look at Tony Blengino getting over his percentile addiction. Glad his treatment went well.

[KingKat]

Do aging curves from past years still hold validity? Aren't they completely different now than what they were a generation ago? I really wonder what kind of value there is in this thought exercise. Makes for an interesting read but I think knowing that players age differently now, I would base my projections on what the curve generally looks like now and ignore the historical data.

[TilsonBritoFan]

Good article, makes me just want to wait and offer the QO and then see where the market goes on them.

[Jimcanuck]

Bautista will rage even more as he declines. I suspect he will also do a 'kiss my purple butt' at the idea of DH. Would rather he do s*** that with another team.

 

EE is cheaper, younger, and accepts the DH role. Choice is easy once these little intangibles beyond the stats are applied.