Lead off hitter?

[BTS]

One in every five posters on this forum believes that Dalton Pompey should get more PAs than anyone else on the team in a given game.

 

One third believe that it should be one of Pompey, Goins, or Pillar.

[Sammy225]

One in every five posters on this forum believes that Dalton Pompey should get more PAs than anyone else on the team in a given game.

 

One third believe that it should be one of Pompey, Goins, or Pillar.

 

Thats kind of sad

[Dr. Dinger]

One in every five posters on this forum believes that Dalton Pompey should get more PAs than anyone else on the team in a given game.

 

One third believe that it should be one of Pompey, Goins, or Pillar.

 

Obviously, having Pompey slot right in at the top of the order all year is a bit pie-in-the-sky, but he does have a career MiLB OBP over .370 (even better than that at AA/AAA) and 50+ SB per 160 games. It wouldn't be super crazy to have him emerge as a leadoff option if he can post an OBP in the .340-.350 range. We all know Gibbons and Bautista are never going to buy into using a .500 SLG guy at leadoff.

[BTS]

Obviously, having Pompey slot right in at the top of the order all year is a bit pie-in-the-sky, but he does have a career MiLB OBP over .370 (even better than that at AA/AAA) and 50+ SB per 160 games. It wouldn't be super crazy to have him emerge as a leadoff option if he can post an OBP in the .340-.350 range. We all know Gibbons and Bautista are never going to buy into using a .500 SLG guy at leadoff.

 

Sure, but that's a discussion to be had when the most reasonable projection of his 2016 slash is better than 260/320/390 or whatever.

[Olerud363]

One in every five posters on this forum believes that Dalton Pompey should get more PAs than anyone else on the team in a given game.

 

One third believe that it should be one of Pompey, Goins, or Pillar.

 

Would hitting leadoff effect Tulo or Bautista's rates?? Would hitting leadoff improve Pillar or Pompey's??

 

If the answer is no, then of course Tulo and/or Bautista should hit lead off.

 

If one is advocating Pillar or Pompey hit leadoff it is because they believe that they would improve as lead off hitters.

 

Me: Pillar should hit lead off, I believe he would have a .330 on base percentage as a lead off hitter, I believe Bautista would be nervous hitting lead off and his on base would decrease by 20 points.

 

If you don't believe that say

 

You: ********... it doesn't matter where they hit. Bautista will have a .375 on base average no matter what, Pillar .310 no matter what. Hit the better guy first.

[Sammy225]

Obviously, having Pompey slot right in at the top of the order all year is a bit pie-in-the-sky, but he does have a career MiLB OBP over .370 (even better than that at AA/AAA) and 50+ SB per 160 games. It wouldn't be super crazy to have him emerge as a leadoff option if he can post an OBP in the .340-.350 range. We all know Gibbons and Bautista are never going to buy into using a .500 SLG guy at leadoff.

 

Sure.... Billy Hamilton had a OBP right around .350 in the minors as well and that has not turned out that great

[BTS]

Would hitting leadoff effect Tulo or Bautista's rates?? Would hitting leadoff improve Pillar or Pompey's??

 

If the answer is no, then of course Tulo and/or Bautista should hit lead off.

 

If one is advocating Pillar or Pompey hit leadoff it is because they believe that they would improve as lead off hitters.

 

Me: Pillar should hit lead off, I believe he would have a .330 on base percentage as a lead off hitter, I believe Bautista would be nervous hitting lead off and his on base would decrease by 20 points.

 

If you don't believe that say

 

You: ********... it doesn't matter where they hit. Bautista will have a .375 on base average no matter what, Pillar .310 no matter what. Hit the better guy first.

 

So the only defense for saying that Pillar should hit lead off is a baseless narrative constructed to explain why the speedy contact hitter should hit lead off.

[Olerud363]

Would hitting leadoff effect Tulo or Bautista's rates?? Would hitting leadoff improve Pillar or Pompey's??

 

If the answer is no, then of course Tulo and/or Bautista should hit lead off.

 

If one is advocating Pillar or Pompey hit leadoff it is because they believe that they would improve as lead off hitters.

 

Me: Pillar should hit lead off, I believe he would have a .330 on base percentage as a lead off hitter, I believe Bautista would be nervous hitting lead off and his on base would decrease by 20 points.

 

If you don't believe that say

 

You: ********... it doesn't matter where they hit. Bautista will have a .375 on base average no matter what, Pillar .310 no matter what. Hit the better guy first.

 

This is what people are saying

 

Pillar Lead off - on base percentage by position

 

.330 .370 .390 .360 .350 .340 .310 .310 .310

 

Bautista Lead off - on base percentage by position

 

.370 .370 .360 .350 .340 .310 .310 .310 .310

 

In configuration two more at bats are going to the best on base percentage, but the best on base percentage is not as high (because Bautista is pissed off at lead off)

 

You have less at bats going to Pillar but Pillar's on base percentage is lower

 

Of course if it doesn't matter where they hit, if Bautista's on base percentage will be the same no matter where he hits, Pillar too... then the above point is moot.

[intentional wok]

Sure.... Billy Hamilton had a OBP right around .350 in the minors as well and that has not turned out that great

 

A .350 OBP in the minors doesn't excite me that much. The patience might translate to the bigs, but the ability to make good contact might not and then the OBP is closer to .310-.320. A really good hitter should leave .350 in the dust in the minors.

 

Then again the same dropoff could happen to a .380+ guy. But at least this guy is making a better case for himself.

[Olerud363]

No... the ony defense is that Pillar's on base percentage will be higher if he hits leadoff rather then 9th

 

Bautista' s on base percentage will be lower if he hits lead off instead of third.

 

So overall team on base percentage is higher with Pillar at lead off.

 

Let's go back to 93 and take an extreme example

 

White lead off - .340 on base average -- Olerud 5th - .470

 

reverse them

 

Olerud (nervous at lead off) .410 on base percentage

White (pissed lower in the lineup) .300 on base percentage

[BTS]

No... the ony defense is that Pillar's on base percentage will be higher if he hits leadoff rather then 9th

 

Bautista' s on base percentage will be lower if he hits lead off instead of third.

 

So overall team on base percentage is higher with Pillar at lead off.

 

Let's go back to 93 and take an extreme example

 

White lead off - .340 on base average -- Olerud 5th - .470

 

reverse them

 

Olerud (nervous at lead off) .410 on base percentage

White (pissed lower in the lineup) .300 on base percentage

 

lol, why are you assuming these things?

[Sammy225]

No... the ony defense is that Pillar's on base percentage will be higher if he hits leadoff rather then 9th

 

Bautista' s on base percentage will be lower if he hits lead off instead of third.

 

So overall team on base percentage is higher with Pillar at lead off.

 

Let's go back to 93 and take an extreme example

 

White lead off - .340 on base average -- Olerud 5th - .470

 

reverse them

 

Olerud (nervous at lead off) .410 on base percentage

White (pissed lower in the lineup) .300 on base percentage

 

You can't really assume that. They are going to attack Pillar the same way and he is likely not going to change his approach whether he is batting 9th or 1st. You can't just assume a change in the batter order is going to make someone better or worse. They have the same skills no matter where you put him

[Brownie19]

No... the ony defense is that Pillar's on base percentage will be higher if he hits leadoff rather then 9th

 

Bautista' s on base percentage will be lower if he hits lead off instead of third.

 

So overall team on base percentage is higher with Pillar at lead off.

 

Let's go back to 93 and take an extreme example

 

White lead off - .340 on base average -- Olerud 5th - .470

 

reverse them

 

Olerud (nervous at lead off) .410 on base percentage

White (pissed lower in the lineup) .300 on base percentage

 

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/wwhet.gif

 

http://i.imgur.com/o7x1oEZ.gif

[Governator]

No... the ony defense is that Pillar's on base percentage will be higher if he hits leadoff rather then 9th

 

Bautista' s on base percentage will be lower if he hits lead off instead of third.

 

So overall team on base percentage is higher with Pillar at lead off.

 

Let's go back to 93 and take an extreme example

 

White lead off - .340 on base average -- Olerud 5th - .470

 

reverse them

 

Olerud (nervous at lead off) .410 on base percentage

White (pissed lower in the lineup) .300 on base percentage

 

 

You do realize lead off only happens on the first at bat of the first inning? It's actually plausible for every player 1-9 to lead off 1 inning each per game...

[Cyborg]

If you think Pillar is better in leadoff then put him 9th and say he is really lead off and hits in front of Bautista and co., just not at start of the game.

[THANOS]

lol, why are you assuming these things?

 

Because, at the end of the day, these are people and not robots, so there should be some consideration for the psychological aspect and how it could impact the performance.

 

There's no guarantee that changing spots in a lineup could be something that alters a hitter's approach but it is possible. Gibbons, for what he's worth, seems to believe that Tulo, for example, was not comfortable mentally in the leadoff spot and that could be a partial explanation for the lower OBP last season. It's silly to completely rule out the qualitative aspects affecting a player.

[BTS]

Because, at the end of the day, these are people and not robots, so there should be some consideration for the psychological aspect and how it could impact the performance.

 

There's no guarantee that changing spots in a lineup could be something that alters a hitter's approach but it is possible. Gibbons, for what he's worth, seems to believe that Tulo, for example, was not comfortable mentally in the leadoff spot and that could be a partial explanation for the lower OBP last season. It's silly to completely rule out the qualitative aspects affecting a player.

 

Reasonable thing to say: "A hitter's spot in the batting order could potentially influence his performance. But probably not."

 

Insane, unreasonable thing to say: "I think Pillar should hit lead off because the psychological impact will lead to a significant increase in his quality of play."

[Governator]

Because, at the end of the day, these are people and not robots, so there should be some consideration for the psychological aspect and how it could impact the performance.

 

There's no guarantee that changing spots in a lineup could be something that alters a hitter's approach but it is possible. Gibbons, for what he's worth, seems to believe that Tulo, for example, was not comfortable mentally in the leadoff spot and that could be a partial explanation for the lower OBP last season. It's silly to completely rule out the qualitative aspects affecting a player.

 

 

I think most understand that but since there is no way to quantify such a statement, you can't just say X player will definitely have a higher OBP at lead off, while Y player's would certainly drop. Instead, you'd say something like if we have an injury or two and need to joggle the line up, it'd be a worthwhile experiment to test Pillar at lead off and see how he does, his OBP could rise because ____________.

[Olerud363]

You can't really assume that. They are going to attack Pillar the same way and he is likely not going to change his approach whether he is batting 9th or 1st. You can't just assume a change in the batter order is going to make someone better or worse. They have the same skills no matter where you put him

 

In that case It would make sense to just bat them from highest to lowest in terms of career on base percentage.

 

Bautista

Donaldson

EE

Tulo **

Martin

Saunders

Smoak

Pillar

Goins

 

There you go (** Tulo adjusted for road numbers due to Colorado effect)

[Brownie19]

In that case It would make sense to just bat them from highest to lowest in terms of career on base percentage.

 

Bautista

Donaldson

EE

Tulo **

Martin

Saunders

Smoak

Pillar

Goins

 

There you go (** Tulo adjusted for road numbers due to Colorado effect)

 

Actually there is a "formula" for optimizing your lineup (which someone smarter than me can explain) - it isn't highest to lowest OBP.

[Brownie19]

Because, at the end of the day, these are people and not robots, so there should be some consideration for the psychological aspect and how it could impact the performance.

 

 

I actually think there's some truth to this. I mean those with the "logic / thinker" personality trait can easily rationalize that organizing your lineup in the traditional manner an extremely outdated strategy and the term "lead off" is stupid, as it's only guaranteed for 1 at bat per game.

 

Unfortunately - not everyone falls into the "logic / thinker" category and we have to deal with the other half of the population who are the "feeling" type. They F everything up (in all aspects of life).

[Olerud363]

I actually think there's some truth to this. I mean those with the "logic / thinker" personality trait can easily rationalize that organizing your lineup in the traditional manner an extremely outdated strategy and the term "lead off" is stupid, as it's only guaranteed for 1 at bat per game.

 

Unfortunately - not everyone falls into the "logic / thinker" category and we have to deal with the other half of the population who are the "feeling" type. They F everything up (in all aspects of life).

 

Anecdotally I can think of guys like Devon White and Marco Scutaro who seemed better hitting leadoff... I mean the manager (Cito Gaston) said hit at the top of the lineup.. everyday... come to work... you know where you'll be.

 

I actually hate Cito with a passion... but am curious if there is any truth to this... there shouldn't be... but if Cito said

 

"Pillar, you are the s***, you are hitting number one... every single day... no matter what... go get 'em"

 

Would Pillar take the final step and really and 100% become the white Devon White??

[Dick_Pole]

Olerud....dude honestly you are really, really reaching to try and make a point that I'm not even sure that you even believe in.

 

The only time I see your argument sort of making sense is if you have a player who is particularly good at hitting fastballs and not so good at hitting off-speed stuff and stick him in front of the sluggers in hopes that pitchers will throw him more fastballs.

 

Otherwise there's no f***ing way Devon White is going to drop his OBP from .340 to .300 out of a pouty protest because he doesn't like his batting spot. What good does that do to his career? Helps him to get traded then the next team he plays for bats the s***** .300 OBP guy 8th?

[BigCecil]

I can't believe this thread is still rolling. We really need to get some real baseball news and spring training going!

[intentional wok]

I can't believe this thread is still rolling. We really need to get some real baseball news and spring training going!

 

Here:

 

 

*mic drop

[Spanky99]

One in every five posters on this forum believes that Dalton Pompey should get more PAs than anyone else on the team in a given game.

 

One third believe that it should be one of Pompey, Goins, or Pillar.

 

lol... that's terribad.

[Boxcar]

Here:

 

 

*mic drop

 

Never thought I'd see the day when Jonny abandons 'muricuh

[BigCecil]

Hitting leadoff for Blue Jays would restrict Pillar as a runner

 

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/mlb/hitting-leadoff-for-blue-jays-would-restrict-pillar-as-a-runner/ar-BBpfUKX?ocid=spartandhp

 

Duh

[CrackerJack]

2-3-4 isn't going to change and so i'd let Tulo choose between 1 or 5.

I prefer him leading off but it he feels more comfortable batting 5th, then opening day vs. Archer:

 

1. Martin

2. Donaldson

3. Bautista

4. Edwin

5. Tulo

6. Smoak (Cola will get his ABs too)

7. Saunders

8. Pillar

9. Goins

[flafson]

2-3-4 isn't going to change and so i'd let Tulo choose between 1 or 5.

I prefer him leading off but it he feels more comfortable batting 5th, then opening day vs. Archer:

 

1. Martin

2. Donaldson

3. Bautista

4. Edwin

5. Tulo

6. Smoak (Cola will get his ABs too)

7. Saunders

8. Pillar

9. Goins

 

I wouldn't let Martin hit first...