Free Agent Pitching

[z3r0s]

I don't really see a scenario where a draft pick will be forfeited. I you offer comp he'll take it. There's no way the Jays are getting that pick. You either sign him for the comp amount, try to negotiate something better or cut bait.

 

Do you really think he accepts a 1 year deal after the best season he'll likely ever have? I don't think there is any scenario he takes the deal. This is his one shot.

[BTS]

I can't understand the argument to bring back Estrada. Magic season driven by a .216 BABIP. Plus you forfeit a comp draft pick. All for the privilege of paying a guy for his age 33-36 year seasons who's K rates have declined the past 3 years.

 

He was AWESOME for us, but it would be a huge mistake.

 

A lot of smart posters are in favour of giving him 1/16 or even a multi-year deal at 10+ per year even though the most likely scenario seems to be an ERA around 4.5. Which makes me think I'm missing something. I'm just not sure what.

[AdamGreenwood]

I think the argument for both Dickey and Estrada is:

 

Current Blue Jays rotation:

 

Stroman

Hutchison

[KingKat]

Do you really think he accepts a 1 year deal after the best season he'll likely ever have? I don't think there is any scenario he takes the deal. This is his one shot.

 

So he's too good for the deal but not good enough to be signed for less? You're assuming some pretty wild fluctuations between how he should be valued and how he will be valued.

[z3r0s]

So he's too good for the deal but not good enough to be signed for less? You're assuming some pretty wild fluctuations between how he should be valued and how he will be valued.

 

We'll see how it plays out, but I don't think its unreasonable at all. Name the case of the guy taking the offer instead of getting a multi-year deal in FA (especially when its likely a 30M deal from some dumb club).

 

Not a given we'll get to see a real test of which of us is correct, but it would be interesting.

[KingKat]

A lot of smart posters are in favour of giving him 1/16 or even a multi-year deal at 10+ per year even though the most likely scenario seems to be an ERA around 4.5. Which makes me think I'm missing something. I'm just not sure what.

 

SP innings don't come cheap, even mediocre ones. I think the more important question isn't really what's his floor is ERA wise but rather what his floor is in terms of IP. Him and J.A. Happ have a lot in common. Both have been swingmen who give up a lot of flyballs. Both are coming off career highs in IPs. I'd probably be all in favour of whichever is the cheapest.

[xposbrad]

I think the argument for both Dickey and Estrada is:

 

Current Blue Jays rotation:

 

Stroman

Hutchison

 

And one of them is penciled in as a #5 and doesn't pitch in the playoffs...

[KingKat]

We'll see how it plays out, but I don't think its unreasonable at all. Name the case of the guy taking the offer instead of getting a multi-year deal in FA (especially when its likely a 30M deal from some dumb club).

 

Not a given we'll get to see a real test of which of us is correct, but it would be interesting.

 

Would you be willing to make the offer and take the risk that he accepts?

[z3r0s]

Would you be willing to make the offer and take the risk that he accepts?

 

It isn't much of a risk on a one year deal, very similar to the RA option that is a no-brainer to pick up. I also think the risk is mitigated by what I perceive is a small chance he does accept. The precedent just isn't there for a guy to take the offer after a 'great' year.

[RealAccountant]

I think the best play is to make the QO and take the pick when he declines. I would also decline the option on good old RA.

 

Sign Price and put both Osuna and Sanchez in the rotation and go heavy on the relievers

[BTS]

I think the best play is to make the QO and take the pick when he declines. I would also decline the option on good old RA.

 

Sign Price and put both Osuna and Sanchez in the rotation and go heavy on the relievers

 

Giving a pitcher a $230M contract and investing heavily in the bullpen would be a disastrous plan.

[Grant77]

A lot of smart posters are in favour of giving him 1/16 or even a multi-year deal at 10+ per year even though the most likely scenario seems to be an ERA around 4.5. Which makes me think I'm missing something. I'm just not sure what.

 

I'm on the fence about a qualifying offer and not in favour of a long term deal, but to say that a 4.5 ERA is the most likely seems awfully cynical to me. Using steamer as a crutch is a lazy way to evaluate players. The historically low BABIP is a both a warning sign and an indicator that he can control it to an extent (evidenced by his .261 career mark). Numbers like that don't happen without a combination of the two, so it was certainly not all luck, which is the assumption of projection systems. I think that an ERA closer to 4 is more reasonable and logical.

[KingKat]

It isn't much of a risk on a one year deal, very similar to the RA option that is a no-brainer to pick up. I also think the risk is mitigated by what I perceive is a small chance he does accept. The precedent just isn't there for a guy to take the offer after a 'great' year.

 

I guess it depends what you call a great year. Maddux was coming off a 199 IP 2.62 ERA season when he accepted. Not great by his standards but it certainly would be by Marco Estrada standards.

[BTS]

I'm on the fence about a qualifying offer and not in favour of a long term deal, but to say that a 4.5 ERA is the most likely seems awfully cynical to me. Using steamer as a crutch is a lazy way to evaluate players. The historically low BABIP is a both a warning sign and an indicator that he can control it to an extent (evidenced by his .261 career mark). Numbers like that don't happen without a combination of the two, so it was certainly not all luck, which is the assumption of projection systems. I think that an ERA closer to 4 is more reasonable and logical.

 

Can you not disagree without condescending?

 

Anyway, Steamer is just picking up on the fact that his xFIP was almost 5 this year and ~4.2 in the NL in 2014, and given that he's 33 in July, he's probably not going to see a change in talent that will drive that down. I'm a lot more willing to bet on his 2016 ERA regressing towards his DIPS. The alternatives are to either a) expect his DIPS to improve significantly, or expect him to continue to outperform his DIPS by close to a full run, which is unprecedented as a skill.

[Grant77]

Can you not disagree without condescending?

 

Anyway, Steamer is just picking up on the fact that his xFIP was almost 5 this year and ~4.2 in the NL in 2014, and given that he's 33 in July, he's probably not going to see a change in talent that will drive that down. I'm a lot more willing to bet in his 2016 ERA regressing to his DIPS. The alternatives are to either a) expect his DIPS to improve significantly, or expect him to continue to outperform his DIPS by close to a full run, which is unprecedented as a skill.

 

Discussing a bad habit is not necessarily condescending and it certainly wasn't meant that way, but I digress. I'm certainly not expecting a change in his skills or another huge gap like we saw this year, but simply expecting a BABIP that is more in line with his career numbers would leave him with an ERA closer to 4 than to 4.5 and that is my logic. His career ERA is also a quarter of a run lower than his FIP, which may be a real skill of changeup artists, as noted in a couple of fangraphs articles.

[Governator]

Do you guys assume Estrada would decline a qualifying offer?

[BigCecil]

Do you guys assume Estrada would decline a qualifying offer?

 

I think so. He knows he has had a career year. Take less per year than the QO for 3-4 year deal.

[BTS]

Discussing a bad habit is not necessarily condescending, but I digress. I'm certainly not expecting a change in his skills or another huge gap like we saw this year, but simply expecting a BABIP that is more in line with his career numbers would leave him with an ERA closer to 4 than to 4.5 and that is my logic. His career ERA is also a quarter of a run lower than his FIP, which may be a real skill of changeup artists, as noted in a couple of fangraphs articles.

 

The implication being that I was lazily appealing to steamer, which is clearly condescending, but I digress. You're difficult to get along with Grant.

[RealAccountant]

Giving a pitcher a $230M contract and investing heavily in the bullpen would be a disastrous plan.

 

If you look at the window to win a championship the two coming years are the best odds. Price at the front of the rotation along with a healthy Stroman will definitely put us in the driver's seat in the ALEast

 

Yeah Price could turn mediocre to worse in a few years but at that point the franchise will be in a full rebuild anyways.

[ProfessionalAtBat]

I can't understand the argument to bring back Estrada. Magic season driven by a .216 BABIP. Plus you forfeit a comp draft pick. All for the privilege of paying a guy for his age 33-36 year seasons who's K rates have declined the past 3 years.

 

He was AWESOME for us, but it would be a huge mistake.

 

I agree

[Ehjays]

I think the best play is to make the QO and take the pick when he declines. I would also decline the option on good old RA.

 

Sign Price and put both Osuna and Sanchez in the rotation and go heavy on the relievers

 

I agree with the QO....But I would pick up RA option and explore a trade. Someone will take him.

[Governator]

I think so. He knows he has had a career year. Take less per year than the QO for 3-4 year deal.

 

The funny thing is, he put up a 3.3 fWAR season just 3 years ago with the Brewers in only 138 innings. He pitched more innings this year than last year because he had more starts but only had an equal WAR value at 1.8 with the highest xFIP of his career. He's a hard one to predict what he's worth, it'll be interesting to see what he gets.

[L54]

If you look at the window to win a championship the two coming years are the best odds. Price at the front of the rotation along with a healthy Stroman will definitely put us in the driver's seat in the ALEast

 

Yeah Price could turn mediocre to worse in a few years but at that point the franchise will be in a full rebuild anyways.

 

Thankfully the only decision you get to make is what you're having for dinner.

[L54]

In regards to Marco and the QO it'll depend on if he thinks he can turn in another year like this. If he doesn't think he can I think the security of a few years and ~30M or so would be appealing. If he's confident in himself taking the QO is a no brainer- putting himself in this position a year from now having proven himself a second time would make buyers a lot less skeptical.

[Angrioter]

I think so. He knows he has had a career year. Take less per year than the QO for 3-4 year deal.

Do you remember Ervin Santana case?

[Grant77]

The implication being that I was lazily appealing to steamer, which is clearly condescending, but I digress. You're difficult to get along with Grant.

 

The implication being that careful scrutiny can yield better predictions than a cursory glance at a projection. If you want interpret it as something else to make a point then so be it.

[BTS]

The implication being that careful scrutiny can yield better predictions than a cursory glance at a projection. If you want interpret it as something else to make a point then so be it.

 

Please stop posting again.

[Governator]

Relying on Osuna / Sanchez / Hutchison in the rotation sounds just as risky as last year with Sanchez / Norris / Hutchison. Am I missing something? Not only will there be some failures between them, but there is also an issue of how many innings we can safely get from them. Losing 200 innings in Buehrle is a lot to make up for with young talent. The 3 of them should be fighting for 1 rotation spot in Spring. My preference would be Stroman/Estrada(or FA Pitcher)/FA Pitcher #2/Dickey/one of Osuna,Sanchez,Hutchison. The BP remains stronger, the SP has depth.

[z3r0s]

I like having Grant around. He's a good contrarian, even if he rubs some the wrong way.

[BTS]

I like having Grant around. He's a good contrarian, even if he rubs some the wrong way.

 

It's never a matter of "I think this and you think that and that's OK" with Grant. It's "I think this, you don't think properly".