Free Agent Pitching

[nextyear]

One pitcher who has been mentioned is Jeff Samardzija (nicknamed Shark). His stats in 2015: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3254&position=P

6.86 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, 1.22 HR/9, 1.26 WHIP, 4.96 ERA, he seems to have trouble by letting too many base-runners score with a 67.2 LOB%

 

Samardzija's stats aren't much better than Hutchison's stats. Hutchison's stats in 2015: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10732&position=P

7.72 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 1.32 HR/9, 1.48 WHIP, 5.57 ERA, Hutchison also has trouble by letting too many base-runners score with a 64.5% LOB%

Edited October 25, 2015 by nextyear

[Boxcar]

One pitcher who has been mentioned is Jeff Samardzija (nicknamed Shark). His stats:

6.86 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, 1.22 HR/9, 1.29 WHIP, 4.96 ERA, he seems to have trouble leaving men on base at 67.2 LOB%

 

Samardzija's stats aren't much better than Hutchison's stats. Hutchison's stats:

7.72 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 1.32 HR/9, 1.48 WHIP, 5.57 ERA, 64.5% LOB%

 

Yes, obviously you would be buying low on his inherent talent.

[canadiansportsjunkie]

One pitcher who has been mentioned is Jeff Samardzija (nicknamed Shark). His stats in 2015:

6.86 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, 1.22 HR/9, 1.26 WHIP, 4.96 ERA, he seems to have trouble leaving men on base at 67.2 LOB%

 

Samardzija's stats aren't much better than Hutchison's stats. Hutchison's stats in 2015:

7.72 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 1.32 HR/9, 1.48 WHIP, 5.57 ERA, 64.5% LOB%

 

Have always like Shark. I would target Iwakuma then Shark..

[GD]

But you didn't actually know anything.

 

You were my mentor, so that's unsurprising.

[wamco]

Zim, Chen and leake to go with stro and osuna

[TheHurl]

lol

 

What about Hutch?

 

I've been saying for a year and a half that he'd be a trade chip. I don't know if they'd do it in a season when his value is so low, but it's possible.

[nextyear]

Yes, obviously you would be buying low on his inherent talent.

 

I don't know much about him, what are his strengths? Would having a solid infield behind him help with his performance?

[intentional wok]

One pitcher who has been mentioned is Jeff Samardzija (nicknamed Shark). His stats in 2015:

6.86 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, 1.22 HR/9, 1.26 WHIP, 4.96 ERA, he seems to have trouble by letting too many base-runners score with a 67.2 LOB%

 

Samardzija's stats aren't much better than Hutchison's stats. Hutchison's stats in 2015:

7.72 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 1.32 HR/9, 1.48 WHIP, 5.57 ERA, Hutchison also has trouble by letting too many base-runners score with a 64.5% LOB%

 

Shark's track record before 2015 is quite strong (vs. Hutch's two full seasons in the bigs). His sub-par 2015 is the reason he's not being blabbed about in the media for a huge contract. There's a good reason to think Shark can bounce back, though, of course, a pitcher looking to bounce back to the big money stature may not want to pitch in a division that involves making 20-ish starts in bandboxes.

[Boxcar]

I don't know much about him, what are his strengths? Would having a solid infield behind him help with his performance?

 

Well, he's a bit weird because I would have normally said yes but his GB rate dropped a ton this year. Fewer swinging strikes and hitters are swinging and making contact a lot more often, both in and out of the zone. His velocity hasn't declined so idk what's up. The White Sox are terrible at everything so it's possible that they gave him bad advice or something.

[TheHurl]

With the Jays not having a set bullpen it's possible they go with a guy that might look finished but have some value in the bullpen and hope to hit Estrada type gold again. The 1 year $6M-8M options that might end up wasting money in the pen look a little less horrible when your budget is less tight.

[CJ-Freeway]

f*** it. I'd go for Price. We need a real f***ing ace.

[CJ-Freeway]

And I really hope Dickey is gone.

[AdamGreenwood]

Lackey, the guy we absolutely hated only a couple seasons ago.

 

Sure, but we could probably acquire him for 4/48 and all the buckets of fried chicken he can eat.

[burlingtonbandit]

Really don't see Lackey being seriously considered. If the FO passed on Latos because of his character then I would expect them to do the same with Lackey. Guy is a f***in Dbag on the mound. As soon as someone makes an error the guy is screaming at teammates, umpires etc...

[SAAviour]

Pretty long list though and a good season to need to sign one or two pitchers.

Who from this list should we give 15 mil or so to. I think we need 2!

 

I'd go for Zimmermann and shark if you can get a discount...might be a nervous off season as waiting it out could be the best option to find some deals.

 

Tier 1

David Price

Zack Greinke

 

Tier 2

Jordan Zimmermann

Johnny Cueto

John Lackey

Hisashi Iwakuma

 

Tier 3

Scott Kazmir

Ian Kennedy

Wei-Yin Chen

Mike Leake

Jeff Samardzija

Mat Latos

 

Tier 4

Brett Anderson

Bartolo Colon

JA Happ

Marco Estrada

Yovani Gallardo

 

Tier 5

Rich Hill

Joe Blanton

Kyle Lohse

Doug Fister

Colby Lewis

Tim Lincecum

Trevor Cahill

 

Well done on the edit.

[baubau]

Even if that's the only player you can afford to sign and it precludes the team from extending Bautista and/or Encarnacion?

 

The team needs to improve their 2016 expected wins total while not sacrificing too much of future years' win totals. That's it. They don't "need" any one player.

 

Its actually interesting, would Price provide more value than B or E heading forward to justify picking him over them? I mean his finals year will suck but he should still be elite for another year or two and serviceability for maybe 3 years after. Not sure what his projections over 5 years would be but imagine a lot better than B or E.

 

Either way, I agree with you. I'd rather not spend 10-15% of the payroll on 1 player thanks. We are already doing it with Tulo & Martin heading forward and potentially one of B & E heading forward (kinda hope both are traded). No thnx!

[SAAviour]

Can't believe in tier 5, Rich Hill is who I'd me most interested in taking a shot at! Crazy.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Well, he's a bit weird because I would have normally said yes but his GB rate dropped a ton this year. Fewer swinging strikes and hitters are swinging and making contact a lot more often, both in and out of the zone. His velocity hasn't declined so idk what's up. The White Sox are terrible at everything so it's possible that they gave him bad advice or something.

 

I think he threw way less 2-seam fastballs so his GB rate dropped. Get him on the cheap hopefully. I'd also like them to sign Estrada but we'll see how much he gets.

[Scion]

I think he threw way less 2-seam fastballs so his GB rate dropped. Get him on the cheap hopefully. I'd also like them to sign Estrada but we'll see how much he gets.

 

Eno Sarris wrote an article about it on fangraphs a while ago, he concluded that everything was the same except for his splitter which was being thrown for strikes more consistently, and thus inducing less whiffs and generating more contact.

[fatcowxlive]

Can we get Bartolo on the cheap on a 1 year deal? Maybe he wants to win and would take a one year deal (if the Mets decide not to bring him back) to come over here, dude's old as dust but holy f*** his walk rate is low as s***. Ground Ball% went up too last year. He might be beneficial enough for the team next year. Then again maybe I just want Bartolo next season because he's Bartolo lol

[CJ-Freeway]

Even if that's the only player you can afford to sign and it precludes the team from extending Bautista and/or Encarnacion?

 

The team needs to improve their 2016 expected wins total while not sacrificing too much of future years' win totals. That's it. They don't "need" any one player.

 

Good point. But I think that with Dickey/Buerhle gone, it frees up enough money to sign both Price and either one of Bautista/EE next year. Does that sound feasible?

[Grant77]

Pretty long list though and a good season to need to sign one or two pitchers.

Who from this list should we give 15 mil or so to. I think we need 2!

 

I'd go for Zimmermann and shark if you can get a discount...might be a nervous off season as waiting it out could be the best option to find some deals.

 

Tier 1

David Price

Zack Greinke

 

Tier 2

Jordan Zimmermann

Johnny Cueto

John Lackey

Hisashi Iwakuma

 

Tier 3

Scott Kazmir

Ian Kennedy

Wei-Yin Chen

Mike Leake

Jeff Samardzija

Mat Latos

 

Tier 4

Brett Anderson

Bartolo Colon

JA Happ

Marco Estrada

Yovani Gallardo

 

Tier 5

Rich Hill

Joe Blanton

Kyle Lohse

Doug Fister

Colby Lewis

Tim Lincecum

Trevor Cahill

 

I'll take Brett Anderson over Leake or Chen without even factoring in the lower cost.

[fatcowxlive]

Good point. But I think that with Dickey/Buerhle gone, it frees up enough money to sign both Price and either one of Bautista/EE next year. Does that sound feasible?

 

I feel like if we give the money Price is asking for, we're going to be so screwed near the end of it. The recent payouts to other aces, and the length of said payout, scares me tbh

[fatcowxlive]

I'll take Brett Anderson over Leake or Chen without even factoring in the lower cost.

 

Last season was his first full season since his debut season (unless you want to count in his 2010 season as well). I don't know if we can rely on him to hold up for an entire season.

[burlingtonbandit]

Last season was his first full season since his debut season (unless you want to count in his 2010 season as well). I don't know if we can rely on him to hold up for an entire season.

 

There aren't many pitchers who you are going to be able to rely on for a full season. The ones that are durable are going to be paid a ton of money. I like taking a risk on Anderson especially if Leake and Chen are the alternatives.

[Grant77]

Last season was his first full season since his debut season (unless you want to count in his 2010 season as well). I don't know if we can rely on him to hold up for an entire season.

 

Perhaps not, but he's an excellent fit in this division and the cost should be low for his talent level.

[mynameispepe]

What about Scott Kazmir? How much do you guys think he will command?

[burlingtonbandit]

What about Scott Kazmir? How much do you guys think he will command?

 

3 years/40 million?

[nextyear]

Even if that's the only player you can afford to sign and it precludes the team from extending Bautista and/or Encarnacion?

 

The team needs to improve their 2016 expected wins total while not sacrificing too much of future years' win totals. That's it. They don't "need" any one player.

 

 

It seems to me that just keeping the current lineup would improve the 2016 win total over 2015 since they were playing at a 0.495 clip (50-51) before Tulowitzki played his first game and 0.705 (43-18) after all the trades took place (to the end of the regular season). A .705 clip over an entire year would be 114 wins, which is a 21 game improvement just with their current roster. However, it is unlikely that the Blue Jays could play at .705 clip over an entire season.

 

Not resigning David Price but signing a .500 pitcher will probably result in a difference of 3 - 4 games in the standings (based on the fangraphs projection of a 16-9 record next year for David Price - http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3184&position=P), which could very well be the difference between getting into the playoffs and not getting in. In my opinion, the extra revenue will more than offset resigning David Price.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Age and Money being a Factor in all things, do pitchers or position players decline faster as they age?

 

Where do we have better depth in the minors to replace them with!

 

What is easier to find or aquire and not overpay for?

 

We depleted a lot of talent for this run, will we not need time and maybe a couple over pays just to build the minors now?

 

Do we let Batz and EE walk for nothing can we afford to extend them both or one and which?

 

Where do we see ourselves today tomorrow in a year or two or five!

 

Was this our moment in the Sun this year and can we repeat it?

 

Stand pat or moving it forward?

 

Is AA back?

 

Is Gibbons ?

 

How much show me the money do we have?