Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[John_Havok]

Agreed it really stalls them out. And in addition tanks any trade value they had. I really doubt after a year like this, and with his history there are any teams that would want any sort of package with him as a centerpiece. That's quite risky for them.

 

Honestly with Orelvis getting tagged for PEDs and Ricky being injured every two weeks this year, our only two real trade chips have tanked their value. There's not really anyone else I can see teams looking at with high upsides. Not as if we should be dealing prospects for major league talent given the current state of the team, but it's sad that it's not even an option now.

 

At least Nimmala has turned it around and looks like he could be a blue chip prospect by next year. Above average numbers now as an 18 year old in A ball.

 

Luckily, with the Jays sucking, their value as trade chips is not overly important at the moment.

 

Even assuming that every pending FA gets traded and nobody else does, the Jays don't really need to fill massive holes via trade for top end guys. There's lots of pitching available via FA after this season that can be had, and you just know the Jays are going to be right there at the end with Soto after losing out on Ohtani last season.

[Brownie19]

Ricky is not a SP prospect until he does SP things. Seems logical. Said before the season, I don't know how anyone can count on him to be a SP6.

 

It's not just being healthy but you can't just project his stuff to hold for 6 or 7 innings every 5th day unless he shows it.

 

To be fair - most (if not all) SP6's can't be hold their stuff or be relied upon to throw 7 innings every 5th day. Most SP3's can't be relied up to do that because it's not 1996.

[AMS528]

To be fair - most (if not all) SP6's can't be hold their stuff or be relied upon to throw 7 innings every 5th day. Most SP3's can't be relied up to do that because it's not 1996.

 

That's entirely true, but it's also a very fair question to ask if Tiedemann can be relied on to throw even 5 or 6 innings. The last time he threw 5 innings in a game was July 1, 2022. Which was over two years ago now, and given how this season and his injuries are going, unless he returns quick and builds up quickly he's not getting there this season either. It's going to be hitting nearly three years since he pitched the minimum amount for a start to even qualify for a win. He has not been an actual starting pitcher in a very very long time. I get why people would look at that and think I'm not sure this guy is a starter. Also not that it matters at all, but this is amazingly why RT does not have a single win in two years.

 

In more positive news, Nimmala hit his 6th HR of the season, he's been hitting exceptionally well since going back up to A ball, and has a .230 ISO for the season. I think you can now say he's doing well for an 18 year old.

[Laika]

That's entirely true, but it's also a very fair question to ask if Tiedemann can be relied on to throw even 5 or 6 innings. The last time he threw 5 innings in a game was July 1, 2022. Which was over two years ago now, and given how this season and his injuries are going, unless he returns quick and builds up quickly he's not getting there this season either. It's going to be hitting nearly three years since he pitched the minimum amount for a start to even qualify for a win. He has not been an actual starting pitcher in a very very long time. I get why people would look at that and think I'm not sure this guy is a starter. Also not that it matters at all, but this is amazingly why RT does not have a single win in two years.

 

In more positive news, Nimmala hit his 6th HR of the season, he's been hitting exceptionally well since going back up to A ball, and has a .230 ISO for the season. I think you can now say he's doing well for an 18 year old.

 

I believe he went 5 IP at least once in the AFL at the end of 2023.

 

5 IP 80 pitches.

 

It was the Kyle Harrison development plan, basically.

 

The old school idea is that guys need to carry a SP workload in the minors so that you know they can do it in the majors.

 

But modern sports science might disagree and say that puts players into unnecessary injury risk? I dunno.

 

Think about outside examples. If you are training for a marathon you don't actually go out and run marathons on the weekend. In fact, most marathon training plans have you never run that full distance until race day.

 

Applying the same logic to baseball and SP development... if a guy in the minors can stay mostly healthy and give you 70+ pitches and 4 IP in AA for 20 starts, or whatever, then that might be enough information to just deploy him as a normal MLB starter. I dunno!

[Brownie19]

That's entirely true, but it's also a very fair question to ask if Tiedemann can be relied on to throw even 5 or 6 innings. The last time he threw 5 innings in a game was July 1, 2022. Which was over two years ago now, and given how this season and his injuries are going, unless he returns quick and builds up quickly he's not getting there this season either. It's going to be hitting nearly three years since he pitched the minimum amount for a start to even qualify for a win. He has not been an actual starting pitcher in a very very long time. I get why people would look at that and think I'm not sure this guy is a starter. Also not that it matters at all, but this is amazingly why RT does not have a single win in two years.

 

In more positive news, Nimmala hit his 6th HR of the season, he's been hitting exceptionally well since going back up to A ball, and has a .230 ISO for the season. I think you can now say he's doing well for an 18 year old.

 

I understand that. Obviously the hope was that Ricky would stay healthier this year and would build up stamina and such, which would have made him an option as our 6th, 7th or 8th starter (which is what MikeM was suggesting he shouldn't have been relied upon to be). If you look around the minors, you will find lots of very good SP'ing prospect who only average 4 to 5 inning per start....but when they get to the majors, they average 5 to 6 innings per start. Bobby and Bryce Miller are both recent examples. There doesn't seem to be any top SP'ing prospects who are averaging 6-7 innings in the minors these days. There must be data out there that says that's the wrong way to develop pitchers (likely along the lines of the "don't waste their bullets in the minors" thought process).

 

That said, I agree that injuries have hampered Ricky's development and obviously it would be a lot more promising if Ricky was able to throw some 5 or 6 inning games this year to demonstrate he can go deeper into games. Unfortunately that never happened and quite frankly, I'm not sure it ever will. He's still quite young, but he looks like he'll be unable to stay healthy while sustaining the velo/stuff he's shown. Ricky's velo/stuff "jumped" significantly after the Jays drafted him. One has to wonder if he wouldn't be better off pulling back on the effort to take some pressure off his arm. The results will suffer, but at least he'll have a chance to pitch more than 32 innings a year. He'll be an interesting case to follow over the next few years. I kind of suspect at this point that he'll continue to max out his effort and will become an often injured RPer long term.

[Brownie19]

What have the Padres done to Ethan Salas? Still super young, but will that bat ever develop?

[Laika]

What have the Padres done to Ethan Salas? Still super young, but will that bat ever develop?

 

Really sad tbh

[MikeM3]

It's not necessarily about throwing innings, it's the fact that going 3 innings changes the parameters of your start.

 

You know you can air it out. Stuff+ goes up. Hype goes up. But how many Ps would increase their stuff+ if they knew they could just air it for 60 pitches? And for 30 innings a year? Will his 60 pitch stuff+ even be the same at the 120th innings?

 

Stuff+ also goes up because it's like a 2 pitch mix. What happens to your stuff+ when you have to mix in your 4th and 5th best pitch?

 

His command sucks when he's fresh. What's it like when he's not fresh?

 

It's like a 20 question sheet he has to answer and he basically answered the 1st question. Yes he throws hard and gets whiffs.

 

I know Harrison is a decent comp. Is he even good? His K rate is like half of his milb rate. His stuff+ drops every month. It was 82 in June. Is he even going to last in their rotation.

[AMS528]

I believe he went 5 IP at least once in the AFL at the end of 2023.

 

5 IP 80 pitches.

 

It was the Kyle Harrison development plan, basically.

 

The old school idea is that guys need to carry a SP workload in the minors so that you know they can do it in the majors.

 

But modern sports science might disagree and say that puts players into unnecessary injury risk? I dunno.

 

Think about outside examples. If you are training for a marathon you don't actually go out and run marathons on the weekend. In fact, most marathon training plans have you never run that full distance until race day.

 

Applying the same logic to baseball and SP development... if a guy in the minors can stay mostly healthy and give you 70+ pitches and 4 IP in AA for 20 starts, or whatever, then that might be enough information to just deploy him as a normal MLB starter. I dunno!

 

Well it's comforting to know he made it there at least once in the past year, I don't think Fangraphs listed those game logs. And is it meaningful in that case with the Kyle Harrison example that now that he's being used for more innings his K rate is nowhere near what it was? Although with Harrison it's probably fair to note that along with those K rates he significantly cut down on walks so it may be that he had to really ramp things down to get some semblance of control.

 

Either way I suppose now we're dropping down expectations for RT. It's less #2 starter and more hopefully he can be a super effective short inning starter. It's still possible he hits his peak projection, but I've gotta imagine the likelihood has dropped a fair bit.End of 2022 and we're thinking, we're going to have a near future top three of Manoah/Gausman/Tiedemann and that is going to be as elite of a rotation as you can have. Maybe Berrios bounces back and he's an incredible #4. We drafted Barriera and he probably wont' be a starter by then, but hopefully he's a good prospect.

 

Manoah is broken goods that we hope can recover to be a back end starter again when he's back from injury. Tiedemann is now a much bigger question mark as a prospect. Gausman is no longer looking like an ace. Berrios has had his stuff completely decline. Barriera is a non-prospect for the moment.

 

f***ing pitchers.

[Daniel Labude]

I believe he went 5 IP at least once in the AFL at the end of 2023.

 

5 IP 80 pitches.

 

It was the Kyle Harrison development plan, basically.

 

The old school idea is that guys need to carry a SP workload in the minors so that you know they can do it in the majors.

 

But modern sports science might disagree and say that puts players into unnecessary injury risk? I dunno.

 

Think about outside examples. If you are training for a marathon you don't actually go out and run marathons on the weekend. In fact, most marathon training plans have you never run that full distance until race day.

 

Applying the same logic to baseball and SP development... if a guy in the minors can stay mostly healthy and give you 70+ pitches and 4 IP in AA for 20 starts, or whatever, then that might be enough information to just deploy him as a normal MLB starter. I dunno!

 

He is 21 and saw a big velo boost when entering pro ball. Pretty sure they have been holding him back and targeting 22 or 23 years old to boost the innings consistently above 5. The injuries I think are more just his body reacting to the velo boost and should settle down eventually

[Laika]

Well it's comforting to know he made it there at least once in the past year, I don't think Fangraphs listed those game logs. And is it meaningful in that case with the Kyle Harrison example that now that he's being used for more innings his K rate is nowhere near what it was? Although with Harrison it's probably fair to note that along with those K rates he significantly cut down on walks so it may be that he had to really ramp things down to get some semblance of control.

 

Either way I suppose now we're dropping down expectations for RT. It's less #2 starter and more hopefully he can be a super effective short inning starter. It's still possible he hits his peak projection, but I've gotta imagine the likelihood has dropped a fair bit.End of 2022 and we're thinking, we're going to have a near future top three of Manoah/Gausman/Tiedemann and that is going to be as elite of a rotation as you can have. Maybe Berrios bounces back and he's an incredible #4. We drafted Barriera and he probably wont' be a starter by then, but hopefully he's a good prospect.

 

Manoah is broken goods that we hope can recover to be a back end starter again when he's back from injury. Tiedemann is now a much bigger question mark as a prospect. Gausman is no longer looking like an ace. Berrios has had his stuff completely decline. Barriera is a non-prospect for the moment.

 

f***ing pitchers.

 

Yeah absolutely, expectations for RT are way down.

 

It would be wild to think he has top of the rotation upside anymore.

 

I think the most anybody can reasonably hope for would be an SP4 and not one that eats innings. Or a closer.

 

He might ultimately have a higher ceiling but even if it works out that ceiling is years away. He would probably break into the league as a 1 WAR pitcher who can throw 100 innings and then ideally improve from then on. Sort of like the Kikuchi experience?

[Brownie19]

It's not necessarily about throwing innings, it's the fact that going 3 innings changes the parameters of your start.

 

You know you can air it out. Stuff+ goes up. Hype goes up. But how many Ps would increase their stuff+ if they knew they could just air it for 60 pitches? And for 30 innings a year? Will his 60 pitch stuff+ even be the same at the 120th innings?

 

Stuff+ also goes up because it's like a 2 pitch mix. What happens to your stuff+ when you have to mix in your 4th and 5th best pitch?

 

His command sucks when he's fresh. What's it like when he's not fresh?

 

It's like a 20 question sheet he has to answer and he basically answered the 1st question. Yes he throws hard and gets whiffs.

 

I know Harrison is a decent comp. Is he even good? His K rate is like half of his milb rate. His stuff+ drops every month. It was 82 in June. Is he even going to last in their rotation.

 

You see this model of developing starters throughout most organizations - including the best. I can appreciate all those questions you've asked (how does he pitch when tired, how does the stuff+ play when he can't air it out for 3-4 innings, how's he do when he has to use his #3 pitch more often, etc.), but it seems quite evident that something else (likely related to the health of the pitcher) outweigh those concerns.

[Brownie19]

He is 21 and saw a big velo boost when entering pro ball. Pretty sure they have been holding him back and targeting 22 or 23 years old to boost the innings consistently above 5. The injuries I think are more just his body reacting to the velo boost and should settle down eventually

 

Is this a thing? Are there several examples of pitchers who had all kinds of arm injuries in their early 20's that must magically went away? I've always thought the biggest predictor of future arm injuries is your history of previous arm injuries.

[Krylian]

Is this a thing? Are there several examples of pitchers who had all kinds of arm injuries in their early 20's that must magically went away? I've always thought the biggest predictor of future arm injuries is your history of previous arm injuries.

 

Doesn't sound like a real thing to me. But I'm open to my mind being changed if there is documentation that confirms this.

[hanton]

Jays Fernando Perez is on the mound for the AL right now in the futures game, home run first batter

[hanton]

followed by a ground out and flyout

[Laika]

Toronto Blue Jays top prospect Ricky Tiedemann is expected to be back on the mound at some point this season after tests revealed no structural damage in his left elbow and forearm, according to TSN Blue Jays Reporter Scott Mitchell.

 

Mitchell adds that Tiedemann has heard multiple opinions already, and it would be a surprise to a "whole lot of people" if anything else came up during any potential future opinions.

 

well at least he's not broken

[Krylian]

So nothing wrong that anyone can find, yet he can't stay on the mound

[Laika]

So nothing wrong that anyone can find, yet he can't stay on the mound

 

He keeps getting minor injuries because his arm can't handle the stress

 

I guess he'll break at some point

 

Maybe they should just do the bold thing and make him a reliever

[Laika]

So nothing wrong that anyone can find, yet he can't stay on the mound

 

He keeps getting minor injuries because his arm can't handle the stress

 

I guess he'll break at some point

 

Maybe they should just do the bold thing and make him a reliever

[Krylian]

He keeps getting minor injuries because his arm can't handle the stress

 

I guess he'll break at some point

 

Maybe they should just do the bold thing and make him a reliever

 

If that's what it takes to keep him pitching

[Sorrow]

I think he likely just needs to get bigger and stronger, probably work on his mechanics as well, do exercises to help with flexibility. I think the biggest issues are he had a massive velocity jump after signing into pro-ball and put on a lot of mass and weight and he was still young enough to be growing that his body just needs to catch up.

 

It also wouldn't surprise me if he does actually have a problem that requires surgery.

[max silver]

I think he likely just needs to get bigger and stronger, probably work on his mechanics as well, do exercises to help with flexibility. I think the biggest issues are he had a massive velocity jump after signing into pro-ball and put on a lot of mass and weight and he was still young enough to be growing that his body just needs to catch up.

 

It also wouldn't surprise me if he does actually have a problem that requires surgery.

 

There were multiple reports that Tiedemann showed up for spring training notably larger than previous seasons so getting bigger and stronger isn't likely what's required.

[AMS528]

https://x.com/scottymitchtsn/status/1816079288560472338?s=46

 

Tiedemann is actually getting second AND third opinions on left elbow this week — Dr. Keith Meister in Texas and Dr. Neal ElAttrache in California.

 

Honestly just take him into the back and shoot him now. Can't get any luck with these guys. It's starting to feel like this is going to be another lost season developmentally for RT. Hopefully nothing that leads to an additional lost season essentially. If he does, well then you start to consider him more like a lottery ticket you're hoping to get really lucky with, and if he's not a reliever than that's a win.

[AMS528]

Jesus Christ Enmanuel Bonilla has been horrific for a 4.1 million dollar signing. 35% strikeout rate in FCL and not even any power to compensate so far.

 

Alan Roden has been pretty bad in AAA since his promotion. Walks and strikeouts haven't been bad at least, but he's not hitting at all.

 

Besides the Buffalo call ups, there is basically not a single real positive performance I can see for hitters from the FCL on up to New Hampshire. Like it is barren. Nimmala managing to recover his year slightly is the best news we've got. It's no wonder that there's like 10 posts every two weeks in this thread. It's just sadness.

 

There's I guess some pitchers ( Trenton Wallace, Fernando Perez, Watts-Brown) who've looked decent but nothing very exciting. I think post Horwitz call up and with Jimenez having a decent shot at losing his prospect status with all of Bo's injuries, the Orelvis suspension and RT being injured all year, this is pretty easily a bottom 5 farm system, and arguably the worst farm system in the majors.

 

"Bare cupboard". The deals for Kikuchi/Green/Garcia better bring something decent.

[John_Havok]

Jesus Christ Enmanuel Bonilla has been horrific for a 4.1 million dollar signing. 35% strikeout rate in FCL and not even any power to compensate so far.

 

Alan Roden has been pretty bad in AAA since his promotion. Walks and strikeouts haven't been bad at least, but he's not hitting at all.

 

Besides the Buffalo call ups, there is basically not a single real positive performance I can see for hitters from the FCL on up to New Hampshire. Like it is barren. Nimmala managing to recover his year slightly is the best news we've got. It's no wonder that there's like 10 posts every two weeks in this thread. It's just sadness.

 

There's I guess some pitchers ( Trenton Wallace, Fernando Perez, Watts-Brown) who've looked decent but nothing very exciting. I think post Horwitz call up and with Jimenez having a decent shot at losing his prospect status with all of Bo's injuries, the Orelvis suspension and RT being injured all year, this is pretty easily a bottom 5 farm system, and arguably the worst farm system in the majors.

 

"Bare cupboard". The deals for Kikuchi/Green/Garcia better bring something decent.

 

Tirotta has been killing it at AAA... but hes 25 and plays 1b. Then there's that 3b they signed out of the who the f*** knows league, Gabe Cancel. 27.... also murdering beisbols. If you squint.... you might get a slight tingle

[AMS528]

Tirotta has been killing it at AAA... but hes 25 and plays 1b. Then there's that 3b they signed out of the who the f*** knows league, Gabe Cancel. 27.... also murdering beisbols. If you squint.... you might get a slight tingle

 

Yeah Tirotta I considered which is really why I said FCL to New Hampshire. I see both him and Cancel are infielders. Excellent, that's exactly where every other Buffalo call-up played.

[John_Havok]

Yeah Tirotta I considered which is really why I said FCL to New Hampshire. I see both him and Cancel are infielders. Excellent, that's exactly where every other Buffalo call-up played.

 

I put Devonte Brown into at least the semi-interesting kinda borderline almost noticeable category, possible backup OF and pinch runner.

[Brownie19]

Jesus Christ Enmanuel Bonilla has been horrific for a 4.1 million dollar signing. 35% strikeout rate in FCL and not even any power to compensate so far.

 

Alan Roden has been pretty bad in AAA since his promotion. Walks and strikeouts haven't been bad at least, but he's not hitting at all.

 

Besides the Buffalo call ups, there is basically not a single real positive performance I can see for hitters from the FCL on up to New Hampshire. Like it is barren. Nimmala managing to recover his year slightly is the best news we've got. It's no wonder that there's like 10 posts every two weeks in this thread. It's just sadness.

 

There's I guess some pitchers ( Trenton Wallace, Fernando Perez, Watts-Brown) who've looked decent but nothing very exciting. I think post Horwitz call up and with Jimenez having a decent shot at losing his prospect status with all of Bo's injuries, the Orelvis suspension and RT being injured all year, this is pretty easily a bottom 5 farm system, and arguably the worst farm system in the majors.

 

"Bare cupboard". The deals for Kikuchi/Green/Garcia better bring something decent.

 

Bonilla is just a lottery ticket as are most international signings. Always hard to know how they'll adjust to life in North America. We got Kirk for like $15,000, so it equals out.

[AMS528]

Bonilla is just a lottery ticket as are most international signings. Always hard to know how they'll adjust to life in North America. We got Kirk for like $15,000, so it equals out.

 

Sure, long term they absolutely are. But when they potentially start to flame out this early it doesn't even create trade chip value.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-international-prospects-signing-day-2023

 

Like you can search up the seasons for the top 15 here, and Bonilla is having pretty easily the worst season of any of those signings besides Shim who has been injured. Salas is having a poor season, but he is literally in high A ball as an 18 year old so that can't be compared to Bonilla's struggles two levels below that. Yeah international signings can be a lottery, but relative to the rest of the international guys signed that year he's also really bad. Lots of that top 15 are having solid value raising seasons.