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Posted
Nice to get some industry confirmation of what a (very) few of us noticed during 2023 - that the system is trending up and is deceptively good, or at least deep.

 

Maybe but some bias creeps into these evaluations. When a farm is weak, the fringe guys get more attention. A strong farm, Longo and the rest pay little attention to the fringe guys.

Community Moderator
Posted
Maybe but some bias creeps into these evaluations. When a farm is weak, the fringe guys get more attention. A strong farm, Longo and the rest pay little attention to the fringe guys.

 

you're a fringe guy

Posted

Farm system seems to have a lot of decent looking relivers and some platoon type 2B/LF options but outside Orelvis there really aren't any big league regular type upside prospects which is kind of concerning. (Nimmula is but he's a half decade away).

 

Hopefully some of these good contact/no power outfielders can develop some power.

Posted
Farm system seems to have a lot of decent looking relivers and some platoon type 2B/LF options but outside Orelvis there really aren't any big league regular type upside prospects which is kind of concerning. (Nimmula is but he's a half decade away).

 

Hopefully some of these good contact/no power outfielders can develop some power.

 

I'm a big Alan Roden fan, I think he has a chance to be a Michael Brantley type if his AA numbers hold up.

Posted
Farm system seems to have a lot of decent looking relivers and some platoon type 2B/LF options but outside Orelvis there really aren't any big league regular type upside prospects which is kind of concerning. (Nimmula is but he's a half decade away).

 

Hopefully some of these good contact/no power outfielders can develop some power.

 

You're uninformed.

Posted
I'm a big Alan Roden fan, I think he has a chance to be a Michael Brantley type if his AA numbers hold up.

 

The numbers do look impressive and if he can get a bit more power then certainly looks like he can be a player. But the writeup of his defense makes him sound less exciting. If he's a 120wRC platoon LF thats more of a 2 Win player than a core piece.

 

Brantley was a plus defender in LF when he was younger which I feel like gets forgotten.

Posted
The numbers do look impressive and if he can get a bit more power then certainly looks like he can be a player. But the writeup of his defense makes him sound less exciting. If he's a 120wRC platoon LF thats more of a 2 Win player than a core piece.

 

Brantley was a plus defender in LF when he was younger which I feel like gets forgotten.

 

Roden seems to be pretty polarizing with the online scouting reports.

 

Baseball America seems to like his fielding fine with potential to be average or better.

 

BA Grade/Risk: 45 Risk: High

Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 55

Scouting Report: “Roden has always shown elite bat-to-ball skills and approach. He has a stockier build with broad shoulders but is a better athlete than he appears. Roden is able to control his barrel with high accuracy, rarely swinging and missing. He shows fringe-average game power, but it’s not a matter of hard contact. It’s a lack of lift in his bat path. Most of Roden’s hardest-hit balls in play are line drives. He’s an average runner underway, which allows him to play an average to perhaps a touch better defense in the corner outfield. Roden has an above-average arm that plays well in the corners.”

 

Fangraphs are notoriously hard graders compared to most other publications.

 

19. Alan Roden, LF

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2022 from Creighton (TOR)

Age 24.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw

50/55 45/45 30/40 40/40 30/40 55

Roden has god-tier surface-level stats dating back to college, and we think he’ll hit enough to play a big league role, but because he lacks big power and exists at the bottom of the defensive spectrum (and isn’t an especially good outfielder), he probably isn’t going to be an impact player. Roden hit .383/.484/.640 in two seasons at Creighton and slashed .317/.431/.459 in a 2023 season split across High- and Double-A. He had more walks than strikeouts prior to promotion and a miniscule 5.2% swinging strike rate on the season. The Blue Jays have already drastically altered Roden’s swing, and he now has the same very upright, Craig Counsell-ish stance followed by a big leg kick that Barger does. It’s a good-looking swing and squeezes as much as is possible out of Roden’s modest athleticism, but the change hasn’t elevated his power to a place that profiles in left field. You can really limit his damage by staying away from him and throwing Roden fastballs, which he doesn’t lift as well as secondary stuff. On top of that, Roden’s feel for contact is a little artificial, and has more to do with his short levers than precise timing and barrel feel. He’s great at adjusting to offspeed stuff and pulling inner-third stuff with lift, but he isn’t dangerous all over the zone. We like him as a platoon stopgap or bench bat, not so much as an impact hitter.

 

MLB Pipeline also views Roden to potentially be an average defender in an outfield corner.

 

Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 40 | Run: 45 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45

 

A Big East Freshman of the Year in 2021 and a conference Co-Player of the Year in 2022, Roden enjoyed a stellar career at Creighton, finishing with a .383/.484/.640 line over 91 collegiate games. He went from Bluejays to Blue Jays as a 2022 third-round pick, signing for a below-slot $497,500. After an unspectacular debut at Single-A Dunedin last year, Roden has been an on-base machine this summer, starting with a .321/.437/.459 line and lowly 9.9 percent K rate at High-A Vancouver before he was promoted to Double-A in mid-July.

 

Roden’s calling card has always been his ability to put the bat on the ball when he decides to swing, and he makes pitchers labor with the way he can control the zone. Toronto hitting coaches have worked with the left-handed slugger to stand more upright to the point where he holds his hands almost comically high, and that’s helped him get a little more power on his swing. It still isn’t average pop just yet, but the overall offensive package is there to be a potential everyday player.

 

A part-time first baseman in college, Roden has impressed Blue Jays officials with his solid play in the outfield corners, and while it’s fringe-average speed, he’s a savvy basestealer. He has enough arm strength for either right field or left field but has featured more at the latter since joining New Hampshire. Roden’s bat will be his primary driver toward Toronto, and with more high OBPs and low K rates, he could be north of the border in a year.

Posted
The numbers do look impressive and if he can get a bit more power then certainly looks like he can be a player. But the writeup of his defense makes him sound less exciting. If he's a 120wRC platoon LF thats more of a 2 Win player than a core piece.

 

Brantley was a plus defender in LF when he was younger which I feel like gets forgotten.

 

 

According to fangraphs Brantley has only had 1 + defensive season and that was like 0.4. Was never a plus defender https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-brantley/4106/stats?position=OF

 

In 2015 had a 3.5 WAR season with 15 homers and -10 defense. In 2014 had a 6.5 WAR season with -5 defense.

 

The board has a collective blind spot when it somes to intuition as to how value works out... constantly hear so and so doesn't have the power to be worth anything... which is true if they .240 with 10 homers 20 walks and 150 strikeouts. But these contact guys can work out fine if

 

a) they get some walks

B) they have some doubles and 15 homers or something

c) they aren't Vlad Guerrero Jr. on defense.

 

One interesting example that is brought up is Lyle Overbay. Lyle did all this but was never a big WAR guy. Lyle actually had Vlad Guerrero Jr. like baserunning and defense though.

 

If you could hit like Overbay and keep a -5 defense rating, and a -2 baserunning (in fangraphs system) that's like a 4 WAR player.

 

Roden/Howritz road to happiness a) hit like Overbay B) be not as bad at defense and baserunning as Lyle Overbay was according to fan graphs.

Posted
Roden seems to be pretty polarizing with the online scouting reports.

 

Baseball America seems to like his fielding fine with potential to be average or better.

 

BA Grade/Risk: 45 Risk: High

Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 55

Scouting Report: “Roden has always shown elite bat-to-ball skills and approach. He has a stockier build with broad shoulders but is a better athlete than he appears. Roden is able to control his barrel with high accuracy, rarely swinging and missing. He shows fringe-average game power, but it’s not a matter of hard contact. It’s a lack of lift in his bat path. Most of Roden’s hardest-hit balls in play are line drives. He’s an average runner underway, which allows him to play an average to perhaps a touch better defense in the corner outfield. Roden has an above-average arm that plays well in the corners.”

 

Fangraphs are notoriously hard graders compared to most other publications.

 

19. Alan Roden, LF

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2022 from Creighton (TOR)

Age 24.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw

50/55 45/45 30/40 40/40 30/40 55

Roden has god-tier surface-level stats dating back to college, and we think he’ll hit enough to play a big league role, but because he lacks big power and exists at the bottom of the defensive spectrum (and isn’t an especially good outfielder), he probably isn’t going to be an impact player. Roden hit .383/.484/.640 in two seasons at Creighton and slashed .317/.431/.459 in a 2023 season split across High- and Double-A. He had more walks than strikeouts prior to promotion and a miniscule 5.2% swinging strike rate on the season. The Blue Jays have already drastically altered Roden’s swing, and he now has the same very upright, Craig Counsell-ish stance followed by a big leg kick that Barger does. It’s a good-looking swing and squeezes as much as is possible out of Roden’s modest athleticism, but the change hasn’t elevated his power to a place that profiles in left field. You can really limit his damage by staying away from him and throwing Roden fastballs, which he doesn’t lift as well as secondary stuff. On top of that, Roden’s feel for contact is a little artificial, and has more to do with his short levers than precise timing and barrel feel. He’s great at adjusting to offspeed stuff and pulling inner-third stuff with lift, but he isn’t dangerous all over the zone. We like him as a platoon stopgap or bench bat, not so much as an impact hitter.

 

MLB Pipeline also views Roden to potentially be an average defender in an outfield corner.

 

Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 40 | Run: 45 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45

 

A Big East Freshman of the Year in 2021 and a conference Co-Player of the Year in 2022, Roden enjoyed a stellar career at Creighton, finishing with a .383/.484/.640 line over 91 collegiate games. He went from Bluejays to Blue Jays as a 2022 third-round pick, signing for a below-slot $497,500. After an unspectacular debut at Single-A Dunedin last year, Roden has been an on-base machine this summer, starting with a .321/.437/.459 line and lowly 9.9 percent K rate at High-A Vancouver before he was promoted to Double-A in mid-July.

 

Roden’s calling card has always been his ability to put the bat on the ball when he decides to swing, and he makes pitchers labor with the way he can control the zone. Toronto hitting coaches have worked with the left-handed slugger to stand more upright to the point where he holds his hands almost comically high, and that’s helped him get a little more power on his swing. It still isn’t average pop just yet, but the overall offensive package is there to be a potential everyday player.

 

A part-time first baseman in college, Roden has impressed Blue Jays officials with his solid play in the outfield corners, and while it’s fringe-average speed, he’s a savvy basestealer. He has enough arm strength for either right field or left field but has featured more at the latter since joining New Hampshire. Roden’s bat will be his primary driver toward Toronto, and with more high OBPs and low K rates, he could be north of the border in a year.

 

Are those reports from this last season? Defense is a tough one to project but him being a below average-average runner now by 2 of those publications isn't exactly encouraging. I think my point still stands though is the bat is going to have to really carry him to be a core type piece. I'm hoping he can become something.

Posted
Are those reports from this last season? Defense is a tough one to project but him being a below average-average runner now by 2 of those publications isn't exactly encouraging. I think my point still stands though is the bat is going to have to really carry him to be a core type piece. I'm hoping he can become something.

 

Those are up to date reports as far as I can tell. I don't know if MLB Pipeline has updated their grades/reports since mid season yet so those particular ratings could be subject to change.

 

I'm not overly concerned about Roden's relative lack of speed as long as he gets good jumps/reads on the ball and throws well.

Posted
According to fangraphs Brantley has only had 1 + defensive season and that was like 0.4. Was never a plus defender https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-brantley/4106/stats?position=OF

 

In 2015 had a 3.5 WAR season with 15 homers and -10 defense. In 2014 had a 6.5 WAR season with -5 defense.

 

The board has a collective blind spot when it somes to intuition as to how value works out... constantly hear so and so doesn't have the power to be worth anything... which is true if they .240 with 10 homers 20 walks and 150 strikeouts. But these contact guys can work out fine if

 

a) they get some walks

B) they have some doubles and 15 homers or something

c) they aren't Vlad Guerrero Jr. on defense.

 

One interesting example that is brought up is Lyle Overbay. Lyle did all this but was never a big WAR guy. Lyle actually had Vlad Guerrero Jr. like baserunning and defense though.

 

If you could hit like Overbay and keep a -5 defense rating, and a -2 baserunning (in fangraphs system) that's like a 4 WAR player.

 

Roden/Howritz road to happiness a) hit like Overbay B) be not as bad at defense and baserunning as Lyle Overbay was according to fan graphs.

 

You're looking at FG defensive rating which includes the postion adjustment, not the player's actual defensive ability.

 

2011 he had +9 DRS in LF with a positive UZR, in fact in LF he had a positive DRS in every season but 2018. Which kind of proves my point in a way that if Roden is a below average defender in LF then its going to be really tough to provide value unless he turns into 130wRC+ type player.

 

Also what's with this Lyle Overbay fascination? He was a dime a dozen player, just like Adam Lind.

Community Moderator
Posted

Toronto is just doing the Cleveland playbook. One of these 5'9" infielders with fringe pop is going to come up and be a slick defender who is smart enough to pull 20+ HR every year. Some day.

 

 

Now do the Cleveland playbook on college SP, please...

Posted
Toronto is just doing the Cleveland playbook. One of these 5'9" infielders with fringe pop is going to come up and be a slick defender who is smart enough to pull 20+ HR every year. Some day.

 

 

Now do the Cleveland playbook on college SP, please...

 

 

Problem with that is its a lot easier to compete in the AL Central than the AL East. High 80 win teams isn't good enough to win the East.

 

I wish Shapiro/Atkins brought more player development coaches with them to Toronto back when they came over. Cleveland always has been known as a great development org. Boddy from Driveline always mentions them, the Dodgers and the Astros as among the best but when Toronto is mentioned "You hope they can get better with the President coming from the org." than saying they have great coaches in the system.

Community Moderator
Posted
Problem with that is its a lot easier to compete in the AL Central than the AL East. High 80 win teams isn't good enough to win the East.

 

I wish Shapiro/Atkins brought more player development coaches with them to Toronto back when they came over. Cleveland always has been known as a great development org. Boddy from Driveline always mentions them, the Dodgers and the Astros as among the best but when Toronto is mentioned "You hope they can get better with the President coming from the org." than saying they have great coaches in the system.

 

It takes more time than people think to turn around team cultures and entire development systems. It's really not as easy as just bringing a few people over. These are f***ing institutions with hundreds of people involved and complex systems.

 

Toronto is on the right track.

 

Also, the division doesn't really matter, it's all about asset generation. If the 2 WAR 2B you just developed doesn't move the needle for your team, you just trade him to a small market team for that Ace in arbitration they they can no longer afford.

 

AND Toronto IS aiming for more upside with their draft picks, particularly the high picks. It's very obvious. Tiedemann, Barriera, Nimmala - they are almost always shooting for the moon on at least one high school pick near the top of the draft. Same can be said on the international side, they do very often throw big money at one hype 15 year old.

Posted
It takes more time than people think to turn around team cultures and entire development systems. It's really not as easy as just bringing a few people over. These are f***ing institutions with hundreds of people involved and complex systems.

 

Toronto is on the right track.

 

Also, the division doesn't really matter, it's all about asset generation. If the 2 WAR 2B you just developed doesn't move the needle for your team, you just trade him to a small market team for that Ace in arbitration they they can no longer afford.

 

AND Toronto IS aiming for more upside with their draft picks, particularly the high picks. It's very obvious. Tiedemann, Barriera, Nimmala - they are almost always shooting for the moon on at least one high school pick near the top of the draft. Same can be said on the international side, they do very often throw big money at one hype 15 year old.

 

It takes time for sure but the Orioles and Reds overhauled their development a lot quicker.. The latest hirings seem encouraging but you do kind of wonder what they were doing the first 5 years when they got hired.

 

Yeah you're right about trading... Can just trade a franchise Catcher for a Defence first OF who can't hit! (Its a joke)

Community Moderator
Posted
It takes time for sure but the Orioles and Reds overhauled their development a lot quicker.. The latest hirings seem encouraging but you do kind of wonder what they were doing the first 5 years when they got hired.

 

Yeah you're right about trading... Can just trade a franchise Catcher for a Defence first OF who can't hit! (Its a joke)

 

It's way easier to overhaul your system when you f***ing suck forever

 

A lot of the Reds young pieces came from their firesale. It kind of remains to be seen whether they can develop talent consistently and over time.

 

O's have a lot of high quality draft/development stories right now. They seem really solid. But they still had four top 5 picks in a row and got Adley and Holliday out of it along with Kjerstad and Cowser... that has nothing to do with turning a system around and everything to do with just being horrible for many years in a row.

Posted
You're looking at FG defensive rating which includes the postion adjustment, not the player's actual defensive ability.

 

2011 he had +9 DRS in LF with a positive UZR, in fact in LF he had a positive DRS in every season but 2018. Which kind of proves my point in a way that if Roden is a below average defender in LF then its going to be really tough to provide value unless he turns into 130wRC+ type player.

 

Also what's with this Lyle Overbay fascination? He was a dime a dozen player, just like Adam Lind.

 

The rating with positional adjustment is all that matters for the final fWAR number. If Roden is below average "for a left fielder" than that will be bad. That's not what I've heard. If Horwitz is below average for a 1b men than that will be bad. However the scouting reports are mostly that they aren't good enough for more difficult positions (like center field, or second base) but we don't know how they will turn out as lf/1b.

 

And yes. Just look at the number with positional adjustment. That is what is used to calculate WAR. That number is an attempt to work out the player's "actual defensive ability". It doesn't always work but the intention is that the number won't change as the player changes position. If you want to know if a player is good at defense or not, the number with positional adjustment is the one to use. Good for a left fielder or first baseben, isn't 'good overall'.

 

Even among left fielders and 1b men there is variation which usually goes from like -5 to -20, and we want Roden/Horwitz to come out towards the higher end.

Community Moderator
Posted

Just think about the young players and prospects Toronto might still have if they just didn't even try to compete for the last 5 years.

 

Moreno, Frasso, Robberse, Kloffenstein, Austin Martin, Samad Taylor, Groshans, Max Castillo, Gunnar Hoglund, Simeon Woods Richardson, Ryan Noda, Kendall Williams, Josh Winckowski...

 

System looks pretty decent if you don't care about winning!

Posted
Just think about the young players and prospects Toronto might still have if they just didn't even try to compete for the last 5 years.

 

Moreno, Frasso, Robberse, Kloffenstein, Austin Martin, Samad Taylor, Groshans, Max Castillo, Gunnar Hoglund, Simeon Woods Richardson, Ryan Noda, Kendall Williams, Josh Winckowski...

 

System looks pretty decent if you don't care about winning!

 

Funny thing is outside of Moreno and maybe Frasso/Hoglund a lot of those prospects look pretty bad. Credit to the Jays for cutting bait/trading those guys when they still had value. Ryan Noda has a decent chance to end up being the 2nd best player of that group and he's a 2 Win 1B.

Posted
The rating with positional adjustment is all that matters for the final fWAR number. If Roden is below average "for a left fielder" than that will be bad. That's not what I've heard. If Horwitz is below average for a 1b men than that will be bad. However the scouting reports are mostly that they aren't good enough for more difficult positions (like center field, or second base) but we don't know how they will turn out as lf/1b.

 

And yes. Just look at the number with positional adjustment. That is what is used to calculate WAR. That number is an attempt to work out the player's "actual defensive ability". It doesn't always work but the intention is that the number won't change as the player changes position. If you want to know if a player is good at defense or not, the number with positional adjustment is the one to use. Good for a left fielder or first baseben, isn't 'good overall'.

 

Even among left fielders and 1b men there is variation which usually goes from like -5 to -20, and we want Roden/Horwitz to come out towards the higher end.

 

If I want to know how good a defensive player is I'm going to look at defensive stats like OAA, DRS, and UZR not fangraphs defensive rating. You said Brantley wasn't a good defender because of "defensive value" where I said by defensive metrics he graded as above average.

 

You get penalized for being a LF/1B on the position spectrum from FG because those aren't as valuable. Even if Roden is "above average" in LF defensively he will have "negative defensive FG value" which puts pressure on the bat.

Posted
If I want to know how good a defensive player is I'm going to look at defensive stats like OAA, DRS, and UZR not fangraphs defensive rating. You said Brantley wasn't a good defender because of "defensive value" where I said by defensive metrics he graded as above average.

 

You get penalized for being a LF/1B on the position spectrum from FG because those aren't as valuable. Even if Roden is "above average" in LF defensively he will have "negative defensive FG value" which puts pressure on the bat.

 

If Roden is 'above average' in LF he still might be negative yes, could range from -1 to -20. He probably will be negative but how negative is the important question.

 

The positional adjustment is 'intended' so that a player will be rated the same no matter what position they play. So for example a great defender like Daulton Varsho should the same fangraphs defensive rating in lf or cf. Same with Brantley. So you should be able to compare 2 players playing different positions, or a player who changes positions.

 

In practice I don't think it works out like that always, because of various quirks. baahhh... others know more.

 

Intuitively to me it has always seemed that this doesn't work. That when moving to the difficult position, even with positional adjustment the player may end up being really good or bad. Take Brantley and Varsho. I think the difference between is way more as center fielder then left fielders. I don't know. I think Tango came on and explained it all, except people who loved Vlad or had other pet peeves were rude to him.

 

As a casual I just will look at Roden and Horwitz fangraphs d-number if they play a lot. If is like -20 that tells me something, if it is -1 that tells me something better, I don't expect either to be positive, how negative is the only question.

Posted
If Roden is 'above average' in LF he still might be negative yes, could range from -1 to -20. He probably will be negative but how negative is the important question.

 

The positional adjustment is 'intended' so that a player will be rated the same no matter what position they play. So for example a great defender like Daulton Varsho should the same fangraphs defensive rating in lf or cf. Same with Brantley. So you should be able to compare 2 players playing different positions, or a player who changes positions.

 

In practice I don't think it works out like that always, because of various quirks. baahhh... others know more.

 

Intuitively to me it has always seemed that this doesn't work. That when moving to the difficult position, even with positional adjustment the player may end up being really good or bad. Take Brantley and Varsho. I think the difference between is way more as center fielder then left fielders. I don't know. I think Tango came on and explained it all, except people who loved Vlad or had other pet peeves were rude to him.

 

As a casual I just will look at Roden and Horwitz fangraphs d-number if they play a lot. If is like -20 that tells me something, if it is -1 that tells me something better, I don't expect either to be positive, how negative is the only question.

 

Take minor league d numbers with a grain of salt. If the Jays are high on Roden, and they are, that's good enough for me.

Posted
Take minor league d numbers with a grain of salt. If the Jays are high on Roden, and they are, that's good enough for me.

 

I don't have any numbers. The only thing I have heard about both Roden and Howritz is that they aren't good enough to play up on the defensive spectrum (Roden can't play center, Horwitz can't play left or second)... at least not very well.

Posted
Just think about the young players and prospects Toronto might still have if they just didn't even try to compete for the last 5 years.

 

Moreno, Frasso, Robberse, Kloffenstein, Austin Martin, Samad Taylor, Groshans, Max Castillo, Gunnar Hoglund, Simeon Woods Richardson, Ryan Noda, Kendall Williams, Josh Winckowski...

 

System looks pretty decent if you don't care about winning!

 

So they’d have Moreno and a bunch of garbage?

 

Not sure this is the flex you were going for.

Posted
Just think about the young players and prospects Toronto might still have if they just didn't even try to compete for the last 5 years.

 

Moreno, Frasso, Robberse, Kloffenstein, Austin Martin, Samad Taylor, Groshans, Max Castillo, Gunnar Hoglund, Simeon Woods Richardson, Ryan Noda, Kendall Williams, Josh Winckowski...

 

System looks pretty decent if you don't care about winning!

 

Does it though? Looks like a bunch of 40 FV’s and Moreno

Posted
Those are up to date reports as far as I can tell. I don't know if MLB Pipeline has updated their grades/reports since mid season yet so those particular ratings could be subject to change.

 

I'm not overly concerned about Roden's relative lack of speed as long as he gets good jumps/reads on the ball and throws well.

 

You're correct, FG and BA's reports are '24 preseason, I believe Pipeline is mid-season and they have reports coming out next week, IIRC.

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