Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Daniel Labude]

My response was not personal man. Your way of looking at it was just not optimal and too apologetic.

 

You applied two different thought process and logic to the same numbers because you are trying to force the numbers to say what you want. That is not analytical

 

Looking at Volpe he is a career 50% flyball hitter in the minors with a 5% max variation between seasons. Orelvis is just a bit under 50% and has a 18.5% variation in flyball % between seasons. If you want to say 1 of them is an extreme flyball hitter....it is Volpe not Orelvis

 

Gallo for reference at the same stage of his career averaged in the 55+% range and varied a max of 10% between seasons (never being under 50%)

[Dagagad]

I hope Laika is right.

 

It’s way more likely he can adjust to hit less fly balls than he can up his pitch recognition substantially. If this is just pitch recognition and not a problem with his swing, then that’s a bigger problem imo.

[Daniel Labude]

I hope Laika is right.

 

It’s way more likely he can adjust to hit less fly balls than he can up his pitch recognition substantially. If this is just pitch recognition and not a problem with his swing, then that’s a bigger problem imo.

 

It will be fixed naturally through reps and getting the recognition and approach down and in sync with which ever swing they narrow down for him to use. Getting out front on the abnormally large amount of breaking balls he has seen has lead to more flyouts than he normally would have given a normal pitch distribution

[Dagagad]

It will be fixed naturally through reps and getting the recognition and approach down and in sync with which ever swing they narrow down for him to use. Getting out front on the abnormally large amount of breaking balls he has seen has lead to more flyouts than he normally would have given a normal pitch distribution

 

Maybe… not being able to recognize breaking stuff is something some guys never grow out of.

[Daniel Labude]

Maybe… not being able to recognize breaking stuff is something some guys never grow out of.

 

It absolutely does improve with reps

[Laika]

You applied two different thought process and logic to the same numbers because you are trying to force the numbers to say what you want. That is not analytical

 

Looking at Volpe he is a career 50% flyball hitter in the minors with a 5% max variation between seasons. Orelvis is just a bit under 50% and has a 18.5% variation in flyball % between seasons. If you want to say 1 of them is an extreme flyball hitter....it is Volpe not Orelvis

 

Gallo for reference at the same stage of his career averaged in the 55+% range and varied a max of 10% between seasons (never being under 50%)

 

No you still don't get it

 

We are not comparing specific players

 

My point is that 50%+ FB rates = low BABIP. I am pulling that point from *all of baseball* and applying it to Orelvis. There might be freak of nature exceptions but the trend is very obvious.

 

We don't really care about what Orelvis did back in the low, low minors. That has little meaning anymore.

 

Here is everyone qualified since 2000. Very clear that high FB% = low BABIP. Like, the effect is so strong that with a FB rate of 50%+ you essentially cannot find a hitter with a BABIP that is even above average.

 

 

With the batted ball approach that Orelvis Martinez has demonstrated ever since A+ it will be very, very hard according to *all of the information in the history of baseball* for him to hit for average.

 

To wit, Steamer now projects him to hit .218 with a .253 BABIP.

 

The problem is made worse by his contact rates which don't look great either.

 

The good news is that with his power and possible defensive utility he only needs to improve this s*** incrementally to be decent. He could hit .240 and be good.

[Laika]

I hope Laika is right.

 

It’s way more likely he can adjust to hit less fly balls than he can up his pitch recognition substantially. If this is just pitch recognition and not a problem with his swing, then that’s a bigger problem imo.

 

Well the swing problems are evident from the data. You don't hit an extreme amount of flyballs because you are getting fooled by breaking balls.

 

I am not sure on pitch recognition, you'd have to go to the scouting reports. With a 30% K rate in AA you would assume some level of pitch recognition issues but he's young so it might not be fatal. I keep thinking of Matt Chapman at the plate for Orelvis' positive outcome. Maybe even a more extreme version, more raw power. If he has a gross uppercut swing maybe he's also getting cheesed by high fastballs?

 

So yeah odds are he has two issues. Maybe he gets a mulligan for another year on the contact stuff though and maybe he can level out the swing just a bit.

[Dagagad]

It absolutely does improve with reps

 

I feel like it’s the number one reason prospects bust other than injuries.

[Daniel Labude]

No you still don't get it

 

We are not comparing specific players

 

My point is that 50%+ FB rates = low BABIP. I am pulling that point from *all of baseball* and applying it to Orelvis. There might be freak of nature exceptions but the trend is very obvious.

 

We don't really care about what Orelvis did back in the low, low minors. That has little meaning anymore.

 

Here is everyone qualified since 2000. Very clear that high FB% = low BABIP. Like, the effect is so strong that with a FB rate of 50%+ you essentially cannot find a hitter with a BABIP that is even above average.

 

 

With the batted ball approach that Orelvis Martinez has demonstrated ever since A+ it will be very, very hard according to *all of the information in the history of baseball* for him to hit for average.

 

To wit, Steamer now projects him to hit .218 with a .253 BABIP.

 

The problem is made worse by his contact rates which don't look great either.

 

The good news is that with his power and possible defensive utility he only needs to improve this s*** incrementally to be decent. He could hit .240 and be good.

 

So given Volpe has the same batted ball approach Volpe will not hit for average and his batted ball approach has been stable every season. Orelvis' increase in FB% has been directly related to changing swings/approaches/adjusting to offspeed which has increased dramatically in volume and quality. Between the 2, Orelvis' numbers will noramlize over time vs Volpe

 

I agreed long ago that the high FB% is feeding into a low BABIP, but he is not an extreme flyball hitter like Gallo and the numbers show it

[Dagagad]

Well the swing problems are evident from the data. You don't hit an extreme amount of flyballs because you are getting fooled by breaking balls.

 

I am not sure on pitch recognition, you'd have to go to the scouting reports. With a 30% K rate in AA you would assume some level of pitch recognition issues but he's young so it might not be fatal. I keep thinking of Matt Chapman at the plate for Orelvis' positive outcome. Maybe even a more extreme version, more raw power. If he has a gross uppercut swing maybe he's also getting cheesed by high fastballs?

 

So yeah odds are he has two issues. Maybe he gets a mulligan for another year on the contact stuff though and maybe he can level out the swing just a bit.

 

Yea, it’s some combo. I’d be more worried about pitch recognition though.

[Laika]

So given Volpe has the same batted ball approach Volpe will not hit for average and his batted ball approach has been stable every season. Orelvis' increase in FB% has been directly related to changing swings/approaches/adjusting to offspeed which has increased dramatically in volume and quality. Between the 2, Orelvis' numbers will noramlize over time vs Volpe

 

I agreed long ago that the high FB% is feeding into a low BABIP, but he is not an extreme flyball hitter like Gallo and the numbers show it

 

He doesn't have to be the most extreme example possible (Gallo) to be an extreme flyball hitter.

 

He is 6th in the NE league out of 72 qualified hitters. In flyball%.

 

His A+ sample in 2021 he ranked 2nd out of 97 hitters with at least 100 PA.

 

He undoubtedly hits an extreme amount of flyballs.

 

Volpe has issues too, they just aren't as bad for him, perhaps, because he doesn't whiff as much. But he does not look like a high AVG hitter in MLB to me without an adjustment.

[Grant77]

Laike deleting any posts that don't agree him. Very classy. This guy should not be a mod. He's a clown hated by everyone that makes this forum a worse place.

[Laika]

Laike deleting any posts that don't agree him. Very classy. This guy should not be a mod. He's a clown hated by everyone that makes this forum a worse place.

 

There are no deleted posts. Are you high?

[L54]

Laike deleting any posts that don't agree him. Very classy. This guy should not be a mod. He's a clown hated by everyone that makes this forum a worse place.

 

Ya I don’t think this is happening

 

Laika is fair and engages in plenty of debate

 

You don’t have to like him but he’s a valuable board member and I doubt he’s going anywhere lol

[Grant77]

There are no deleted posts. Are you high?

 

You regularly delete posts that disprove your regularly incorrect or ridiculous opinions and edit the responses of others in an attempt at humour. The forum has been considerably worse since you were mistakenly given moderator privileges. You add nothing positive to this forum and never have.

[Laika]

It makes me extremely happy to know that you are upset. Thank you. I'll continue to be the best and most popular moderator, living rent free in your head all day every day and ruining your online experience.

[Jonn]

You regularly delete posts that disprove your regularly incorrect or ridiculous opinions and edit the responses of others in an attempt at humour. The forum has been considerably worse since you were mistakenly given moderator privileges. You add nothing positive to this forum and never have.

 

Very much this. The over moderating is super unnecessary and it’s very one sided. Normally I don’t care but it’s actually starting to interrupt good conversation.

[metafour]

Gunnar Hoglund made his Pro debut on rehab assignment in the ACL for the A's:

 

2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

 

I'm interested to see what his stuff is looking like this year.

[max silver]

Gunnar Hoglund made his Pro debut on rehab assignment in the ACL for the A's:

 

2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

 

I'm interested to see what his stuff is looking like this year.

 

I have the feeling trading Hoglund could end up hurting a bit eventually. He already possessed top notch command as an amateur, and seems like the type of guy that would have really benefitted from the Jays pitching development system given how the club has had a lot of recent success in helping their pitchers improve upon their overall stuff.

[Jimcanuck]

Very much this. The over moderating is super unnecessary and it’s very one sided. Normally I don’t care but it’s actually starting to interrupt good conversation.

 

It's a fine line, maybe gets too heavy sometimes. Remember the mods are doing this for free. Do a good job when you compare to other sites.

[L54]

I have the feeling trading Hoglund could end up hurting a bit eventually. He already possessed top notch command as an amateur, and seems like the type of guy that would have really benefitted from the Jays pitching development system given how the club has had a lot of recent success in helping their pitchers improve upon their overall stuff.

 

For the A’s sake hopefully one of the players we’ve dealt them in the last 5 years turns into a major leaguer.

[Krylian]

For the A’s sake hopefully one of the players we’ve dealt them in the last 5 years turns into a major leaguer.

 

I don't particularly care if it works out for the A's. Look at what happened in the Dickey deal when one of the players worked out well for them. We've been going on about that deal for almost a decade. I'd rather have a Donaldson situation where we're the clear winners.

[Olerud363]

I don't particularly care if it works out for the A's. Look at what happened in the Dickey deal when one of the players worked out well for them. We've been going on about that deal for almost a decade. I'd rather have a Donaldson situation where we're the clear winners.

 

Well... nobody would have cared if Dickey was a bit better and Jays had won in 2014 (2013 was a complete disaster and they wouldn't have won no matter what Dickey did).

 

In trades like the Dickey trade the best outcome is for the win-now team to win-now and the other team to win in 4 years. Since both the Mets and the Jays won in 2015, and syndergard and Dickey both helped those teams that year, the trade did nothing to accelerate the Jays timeline.

 

In fact if that trade wasn't made, Thor-god would have pitched in ALCS game 4 instead of dumpy old man, and maybe it would have been a Cubs/Jays world series in 2015.

 

If Champman is 4 WAR this year and next, and Jays make the playoffs, no one will care if the other guy helps the As to the playoffs in 2025.

[jaysguy44]

For the A’s sake hopefully one of the players we’ve dealt them in the last 5 years turns into a major leaguer.

Lol why? I couldn't care less if every player we trade away is a bust... Actually, I'd prefer that.

[L54]

Lol why? I couldn't care less if every player we trade away is a bust... Actually, I'd prefer that.

 

Cool

[Jonn]

It's a fine line, maybe gets too heavy sometimes. Remember the mods are doing this for free. Do a good job when you compare to other sites.

 

I just think you shouldn’t combine personal feelings with how you moderate a message board. The vaccine is not politics. The vaccine mandate is relevant in Baseball discussions because of how its impacting players crossing the border. Censoring it is silly. Perhaps pin a thread that says don’t get into personal feelings about the subject but its a relevant Baseball discussion as long as the mandates exist. I don’t care about it anymore than that.

[Jimcanuck]

I just think you shouldn’t combine personal feelings with how you moderate a message board. The vaccine is not politics. The vaccine mandate is relevant in Baseball discussions because of how its impacting players crossing the border. Censoring it is silly. Perhaps pin a thread that says don’t get into personal feelings about the subject but its a relevant Baseball discussion as long as the mandates exist. I don’t care about it anymore than that.

 

maybe you didnt see the posts that crossed the line

[Jonn]

maybe you didnt see the posts that crossed the line

 

How would I if they get deleted? What is the line exactly because it seems to only exist if you aren’t pro vaccine. How are people supposed to know anything without reference. Deleting the posts is pointless because it will just keep happening everytime it comes up. What you do is address it directly.

[Jimcanuck]

How would I if they get deleted? What is the line exactly because it seems to only exist if you aren’t pro vaccine. How are people supposed to know anything without reference. Deleting the posts is pointless because it will just keep happening everytime it comes up. What you do is address it directly.

 

nah these posts called arenado / goldsmith stupid / idiots

[BTS]

I just think you shouldn’t combine personal feelings with how you moderate a message board. The vaccine is not politics. The vaccine mandate is relevant in Baseball discussions because of how its impacting players crossing the border. Censoring it is silly. Perhaps pin a thread that says don’t get into personal feelings about the subject but its a relevant Baseball discussion as long as the mandates exist. I don’t care about it anymore than that.

 

Posts about players being impacted are not moderated. Posts about the vaccines and the soundness of the decision to get/not get one are moderated. If they weren't, every thread where the issue came up would be derailed by arguments about vaccines. Those arguments would lead to partisan red vs. blue political arguments, and those arguments would lead to grudges that would play out in every thread on the forum. Most people on this baseball forum actually just want to read/post about baseball, not endlessly rehashed political flame wars,.