Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Spanky99]

So, Kevin Smith...

 

What are our realistic expectations for him? Cavan Biggio but with slightly more power and a better glove that can play SS, 3B and 2B with plus defense? Their 24 year old AAA numbers are very similar.

 

That'd be a damn nice player to have I'm thinking.

 

That's not realistic, brosoff. AAA numbers aside, Cavan hit the MLB rolling. Dream big I guess.

[Jimcanuck]

Kevin Smith has a chance to be like Jon Berti IMO. Above average speed and defence, mediocre bat (with a bit more power). A useful back end player.

[Brownie19]

So, Kevin Smith...

 

What are our realistic expectations for him? Cavan Biggio but with slightly more power and a better glove that can play SS, 3B and 2B with plus defense? Their 24 year old AAA numbers are very similar.

 

That'd be a damn nice player to have I'm thinking.

 

If Biggio is your expectation for Kevin Smith - you'll be disappointed. I think the word your looking for is 'ceiling'

[Olerud363]

So, Kevin Smith...

 

What are our realistic expectations for him? Cavan Biggio but with slightly more power and a better glove that can play SS, 3B and 2B with plus defense? Their 24 year old AAA numbers are very similar.

 

That'd be a damn nice player to have I'm thinking.

 

As a hitter his minor league stats are similar to Teoscar's or Tellez's. No idea how good he is as a defender.

 

Biggio always had a freakish walk rate and good on base percentages in the minors. I don't think Smith has that kind of pitch recognition. For example in Biggio's "down" season in Dunnedin, he still had a .340 on base, in Smith's down season it was .260... big difference.

 

You can expect some struggles in the majors offensively, maybe he'll put it together... maybe not.

[metafour]

If Biggio is your expectation for Kevin Smith - you'll be disappointed. I think the word your looking for is 'ceiling'

 

I don't think it's actually that out of the realm of possibility that Kevin Smith has a higher ceiling than Biggio. Biggio has the better eye and plate-discipline profile for sure, but he's a low-BA hitter and Kevin Smith has gotten to his power much easier than Biggio has. He's also the better athlete and should provide more defensive value. Of course his profile is more volatile as he's already shown that he's prone to collapse at the plate, but Biggio has clear flaws in his profile that really cap his offensive upside IMO.

[jimedmonds]

just before I get too attached...the plan is to not trade any of these guys for short-term, bullpen help, right?

 

can half-decent arms be had for the likes of Warmoth, Adams, etc. Maybe Smith goes onto this list.

 

I'm thinking, upgrade the bullpen a bit more and ride it out with the starting staff once Pearson comes back. do a few summer callups with the AA/AAA guys to fill out the pen for the stretch run. Any playoff success if a bonus but they're not primed to win it this year, so might as well protect the assets and go for it next year and beyond...Thoughts?

[Brownie19]

I don't think it's actually that out of the realm of possibility that Kevin Smith has a higher ceiling than Biggio. Biggio has the better eye and plate-discipline profile for sure, but he's a low-BA hitter and Kevin Smith has gotten to his power much easier than Biggio has. He's also the better athlete and should provide more defensive value. Of course his profile is more volatile as he's already shown that he's prone to collapse at the plate, but Biggio has clear flaws in his profile that really cap his offensive upside IMO.

 

Biggio's at 4.1 WAR over his first 208 ML games. Kevin Smith has lots of good tools, always has, but I think we should be over the moon if he ends up better than Biggio.

[InsideThePark]

Kevin Smith is already better than Biggio who doesn't deserve an MLB roster spot - Keith Law Probably

 

They're a different type of player but Biggio's level is likely your reasonable peak, of course there's always pie in the sky possibilities that put him higher than that, but 100th percentile possibilities shouldn't really be considered. A decent expectation is fringe starter, maybe up to a Gurriel level player, with average to below average outcome being about an Espinal level player(not that type, but that level). With obvious bust potential still a possibility as well. That range of outcomes is a huge win considering how awful he was in 2019

[InsideThePark]

Anyone want to take a stab at an updated Jays top 30 prospect ranking before Manoah graduates here by the end of the month?

 

1. Moreno

2. Martin

------------

3. Pearson

4. SWR

5. Manoah

6. Groshans

--------------

7. Kirk

8. Martinez

-------------

9. Hiraldo

10. Smith

11. Hatch

12. Lopez

13. Merryweather

14. Kloffenstein

15. Taylor

------------

16. Murray

17. Jimenez

18. Van Eyk

19. Pardinho

20. De Castro

21. Beltre

22. Palacios

23. Brown

24. Robberse

25. Machado

26. Danner

27. Maese

28. Britton

29. Adams

30. Frasso

[Dr. Dinger]

It's Martin #1 for me. You should probably never rank a catcher as the #1 prospect no matter how good they look in the minors... unless you're the Orioles or Giants and literally your only decent prospect is a catcher.

[Jimcanuck]

It's Martin #1 for me. You should probably never rank a catcher as the #1 prospect no matter how good they look in the minors... unless you're the Orioles or Giants and literally your only decent prospect is a catcher.

 

Uh, Grayson? Luciano?

[Ray]

Anyone want to take a stab at an updated Jays top 30 prospect ranking before Manoah graduates here by the end of the month?

 

1. Moreno

2. Martin

------------

3. Pearson

4. SWR

5. Manoah

6. Groshans

--------------

7. Kirk

8. Martinez

-------------

9. Hiraldo

10. Smith

11. Hatch

12. Lopez

13. Merryweather

14. Kloffenstein

15. Taylor

------------

16. Murray

17. Jimenez

18. Van Eyk

19. Pardinho

20. De Castro

21. Beltre

22. Palacios

23. Brown

24. Robberse

25. Machado

26. Danner

27. Maese

28. Britton

29. Adams

30. Frasso

 

Gotta give Zach Logue a shoutout I think. Dude has a 12.4 K/9 to go with a miniscule 1.5 BB/9 across 42 innings in AA and AAA. There's been a couple outings that have been rocky, but other than that, he's been dominant. Trying to find more information on this guy (he was sitting 89-92 mph with his fastball in the past), but no luck thus far. I'm wondering if he's had a velo bump.

 

His slider does look pretty nasty, probably accentuated by his funky delivery:

 

 

[Laika]

Anyone want to take a stab at an updated Jays top 30 prospect ranking before Manoah graduates here by the end of the month?

 

1. Moreno

2. Martin

------------

3. Pearson

4. SWR

5. Manoah

6. Groshans

--------------

7. Kirk

8. Martinez

-------------

9. Hiraldo

10. Smith

11. Hatch

12. Lopez

13. Merryweather

14. Kloffenstein

15. Taylor

------------

16. Murray

17. Jimenez

18. Van Eyk

19. Pardinho

20. De Castro

21. Beltre

22. Palacios

23. Brown

24. Robberse

25. Machado

26. Danner

27. Maese

28. Britton

29. Adams

30. Frasso

 

Some of those guys don't have prospect eligibility anymore. Hatch for sure. I'd probably go something like:

 

Martin

_____

Pearson

Moreno

Kirk

_____

Groshans

SWR

Manoah

_____

Orelvis

Murray

Smith

_____

Van Eyk

Hiraldo

Beltre

Adams

_____

Lopez

Kloff

Pardinho

De Castro

Frasso

Robberse

Brown

Palmer

Logue?

Taylor

Young

Melean

Robertson

Machado

Jimenez

Barger

Britton

Danner

Paulino

The rest

 

Chose not to rank the arms with MLB experience aside from Pearson/Manoah, even if some of them still happen to hang onto prospect status.

 

Order doesn't mean much towards the bottom there.

[Laika]

Pearson is a big dropper for me.

 

If he chokes again when he is promoted then I'll be ready to drop him down

[Brownie19]

Nice to see Groshans get hot. He's up to a 114 wRC+ now 11% BB 22% K

[Ray]

When was the last time we've had a major league team team as promising/young as this and also an insanely deep farm system? There are 15-20 names at least that are intriguing to varying degrees.

 

2016 was our last good team, and our top prospects were Richard Urena, Anthony Alford, Rowdy Tellez, & Sean Reid-Foley. We just graduated an insane amount of young talent over the last two seasons, and yet somehow have a deep system.

[Krylian]

When was the last time we've had a major league team team as promising/young as this and also an insanely deep farm system? There are 15-20 names at least that are intriguing to varying degrees.

 

2016 was our last good team, and our top prospects were Richard Urena, Anthony Alford, Rowdy Tellez, & Sean Reid-Foley. We just graduated an insane amount of young talent over the last two seasons, and yet somehow have a deep system.

 

What prospects has Atkins traded? Aside from Kendall Williams...who is intriguing, they really haven't moved anyone of consequence that I can think of.

[Laika]

What prospects has Atkins traded? Aside from Kendall Williams...who is intriguing, they really haven't moved anyone of consequence that I can think of.

 

Griffin Conine, maybe. I'm sure if he was still in the org many would have him inside the top 20

[Laika]

When was the last time we've had a major league team team as promising/young as this and also an insanely deep farm system? There are 15-20 names at least that are intriguing to varying degrees.

 

2016 was our last good team, and our top prospects were Richard Urena, Anthony Alford, Rowdy Tellez, & Sean Reid-Foley. We just graduated an insane amount of young talent over the last two seasons, and yet somehow have a deep system.

 

Never. I can't speak to the 80s or early 90s, but as long as I've been a fan the team has absolutely never been in a position this good, as far as projecting long term total talent.

[Ray]

What prospects has Atkins traded? Aside from Kendall Williams...who is intriguing, they really haven't moved anyone of consequence that I can think of.

 

If Stripling keeps pitching the way he is, that trade could be looking good too. He's looking like a completely different guy since he found out he was tipping pitches.

 

We traded Edward Olivares who is crushing AAA right now as a 25 year old (.370/.447/.593) for Solarte. But he's yet to really prove anything in the majors.

 

We traded Jon Berti who's become a semi useful bench player I guess.

 

We traded Hendriks for Jesse Chavez, but he didn't really figure it out until much later.

 

Urshela is probably the only one that really hurts, but hard to really fault that one. Who in their right minds expected that dude to break out the way he did. He's never hit anywhere, and some Yankee fairy dust immediately turns him into a borderline All-star.

 

There's no one we've given up that I've thought "wow, that really sucks that we gave up that dude". It's just not Atkins MO. This front office would rather horde and develop their own players, and I'm supremely thankful for that. God knows our player development system has sucked since essentially the 90's.

[InsideThePark]

Some of those guys don't have prospect eligibility anymore. Hatch for sure. I'd probably go something like:

 

I thought it was 130 PA or 30 IP(turns out it's 50 IP so Manoah won't be graduating as quickly as I thought), is there another cutoff that makes Hatch and others not eligible? I checked Hatch and Merryweather spoecifically to see if they were below what I thought was the 30 inning threshold.

[Laika]

I thought it was 130 PA or 30 IP(turns out it's 50 IP so Manoah won't be graduating as quickly as I thought), is there another cutoff that makes Hatch and others not eligible? I checked Hatch and Merryweather spoecifically to see if they were below what I thought was the 30 inning threshold.

 

There is a service time threshold too, for rookie status, and IIRC they even tweaked it for 2020 because of the shortened season. I think it's only 45 days of active service time. In normal seasons September does not count as far as the active service time goes.

[Mikeleelop]

Pearson is a big dropper for me.

 

and he's almost 25 years old isn't he??

[Benito]

I got hooked on the Jays early 90s (around time of big Alomar/Carter trade), and I don't remember the team being in such a good position for sustained competitiveness. With the talent pipeline being so fruitful, the team could have similar decade long success as the teams from 1983-1993. Long ways to go obviously.

[gruber92]

Why no Otto Lopez love? That kid can flat out rake.

[max silver]

Why no Otto Lopez love? That kid can flat out rake.

 

The lack of home run power and no defined position take a lot of the luster off for Lopez.

[Laika]

Why no Otto Lopez love? That kid can flat out rake.

 

He's 15th and 12th on the two lists posted. If anything we are overrating him

[Ray]

The lack of home run power and no defined position take a lot of the luster off for Lopez.

 

This isn't a negative so long as he's at least average at multiple positions. It probably makes him more valuable if anything. He's listed as playing 2B/CF and I've yet to read anything that says he's not capable defensively.

 

Otto Lopez is intriguing, and clearly the Jays value him because they protected him from the Rule 5 last winter. The contact first profile usually ends up translating better in the majors, and you hope he can tap into more power as he grows older. Probably more doubles/gap power than homers. I've always comp'd him to Cesar Hernandez (even though Lopez isn't a switch hitter). That's a useful guy to have on a team.

[Krylian]

Pearson on the IL with right groin strain

[King]

This isn't a negative so long as he's at least average at multiple positions. It probably makes him more valuable if anything. He's listed as playing 2B/CF and I've yet to read anything that says he's not capable defensively.

 

Otto Lopez is intriguing, and clearly the Jays value him because they protected him from the Rule 5 last winter. The contact first profile usually ends up translating better in the majors, and you hope he can tap into more power as he grows older. Probably more doubles/gap power than homers. I've always comp'd him to Cesar Hernandez (even though Lopez isn't a switch hitter). That's a useful guy to have on a team.

What do you mean by contact first usually translate better to the majors? What does Lopez profile even look like at the major league level? Maybe he could be like, Espinal?