Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[sdyment]

So, does Spats still post here? Love his daily updates from ST. Anybody else “reporting live” this year?

[Spanky__99]

So, does Spats still post here? Love his daily updates from ST. Anybody else “reporting live” this year?

 

Spats shows up later, and even goes to Ray games prior to coming back to Ontario.

[Ray]

FanGraphs Top 100 prospects list: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-100-prospects/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

 

4 Jays: Pearson #8, SWR #76, Groshans #80, Orelvis #89.

 

Wander Franco at a 80 FV. First one FG has ever handed out I believe.

[Ray]

Also, Jays rank #6 on the Baseball-America farm system rankings.

 

Rays are #1. They’re just unfair right now.

[Laika]

FanGraphs Top 100 prospects list: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-100-prospects/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

 

4 Jays: Pearson #8, SWR #76, Groshans #80, Orelvis #89.

 

Wander Franco at a 80 FV. First one FG has ever handed out I believe.

 

The report on Pearson is pretty great.

 

A bit of cold water for the other three though:

 

Groshans - "but the severity of his injury concerns some teams... The mystery and severity of the injury, combined with Lansing’s tendency to cariacature hitter’s stats, has much of the industry in wait-and-see mode here, though the power is for real."

 

SWR - "He’s not nearly as projectable as most teenage arms... his frame is pretty mature, so this is a player who might look a little too good on a pro scouting model.

 

Orelvis - "Were Martinez a little more physically projectable, he’d be higher on this list... We ranked him behind a number of players in his class because of concerns about his contact skills, and those remain due to wild variation in the way Martinez’s lower half works during his swing. His footwork is all over the place and he takes a lot of ugly hacks... this is a kid with a high-variance hit tool."

[max silver]

The report on Pearson is pretty great.

 

A bit of cold water for the other three though:

 

Groshans - "but the severity of his injury concerns some teams... The mystery and severity of the injury, combined with Lansing’s tendency to cariacature hitter’s stats, has much of the industry in wait-and-see mode here, though the power is for real."

 

SWR - "He’s not nearly as projectable as most teenage arms... his frame is pretty mature, so this is a player who might look a little too good on a pro scouting model.

 

Orelvis - "Were Martinez a little more physically projectable, he’d be higher on this list... We ranked him behind a number of players in his class because of concerns about his contact skills, and those remain due to wild variation in the way Martinez’s lower half works during his swing. His footwork is all over the place and he takes a lot of ugly hacks... this is a kid with a high-variance hit tool."

 

Fangraphs always manages to piss in my cornflakes with their doom and gloom Blue Jays prospect write-ups. Woods Richardson gets a 40 present rating for command, for a guy that's only walking 2 per 9 innings that seems pretty crazy. Same thing for Orelvis Martinez, as a 17 year old he put up a 150 WRC+, with a very respectable strike-out rate, and he gets hit with a 20/45 present-future hit tool. Sure there's something to be said for actually seeing somebody play live vs. stat scouting, but you would have to think actual on the field results need to count for something.

[P2F]

I'm fully expecting FG to go, like, only 30-ish players deep in the Blue Jays prospect write-up, even though BA has just named it the 6th-best farm in baseball. Since they seemingly always do the Jays in the back half of the lists and they're scrambling to get those lists released in a more timely manner, it seems like they skimp on the depth of those systems and we subsequently get deprived of an honest write-up.

 

This annoys me.

[Laika]

Fangraphs always manages to piss in my cornflakes with their doom and gloom Blue Jays prospect write-ups. Woods Richardson gets a 40 present rating for command, for a guy that's only walking 2 per 9 innings that seems pretty crazy. Same thing for Orelvis Martinez, as a 17 year old he put up a 150 WRC+, with a very respectable strike-out rate, and he gets hit with a 20/45 present-future hit tool. Sure there's something to be said for actually seeing somebody play live vs. stat scouting, but you would have to think actual on the field results need to count for something.

 

You should look into how Fangraphs assigns grades now. They have a system that is not horrible. The 40 present command basically just means that if SWR were in the MLB today, his command would look like a 40. Same with Orelvis' hit tool - it would look like a 20 today if he got plopped onto the MLB roster. The projected 45 might be light, I guess, but all that really means is that they project Orelvis to be something like a .250 hitter in the MLB if he develops.

[43211234]

The Yankees' Jasson Dominguez #49 on the Fangraphs list despite turning 17 just last week and no pro experience yet.

 

When was the last time we saw such an aggressive ranking on a J2 player? Or maybe it happens more often than I'm remembering.

 

Only him and two others younger than Orelvis Martinez on that list.

[Abomination]

The Yankees' Jasson Dominguez #49 on the Fangraphs list despite turning 17 just last week and no pro experience yet.

 

When was the last time we saw such an aggressive ranking on a J2 player? Or maybe it happens more often than I'm remembering.

 

Only him and two others younger than Orelvis Martinez on that list.

 

It seems like Yankee prospects always get aggressively rated.

[Jimcanuck]

The Yankees' Jasson Dominguez #49 on the Fangraphs list despite turning 17 just last week and no pro experience yet.

 

When was the last time we saw such an aggressive ranking on a J2 player? Or maybe it happens more often than I'm remembering.

 

Only him and two others younger than Orelvis Martinez on that list.

 

Jasson is 38 on Baseball America and 46 on Baseball Prospectus.

 

Probably a correction after top IFA guys like Soto, Franco, J-Rod, Luciano etc have rocketed up prospect lists faster than the draft guys.

[TheHurl]

Jays are 6th in the org prospect rankings. Too ugly to copy and paste

[TheHurl]

Jasson is 38 on Baseball America and 46 on Baseball Prospectus.

 

Probably a correction after top IFA guys like Soto, Franco, J-Rod, Luciano etc have rocketed up prospect lists faster than the draft guys.

 

It is probably the highest pre-debut but it's most like just warranted. They have put several in the top 100 at 16 pre-debut. Franco at 96, Maitan at 60 something. They have to justify their International rankings. They did say that if Jasson were draft eligible they probably would have ranked him top 5.

[TheHurl]

It seems like Yankee prospects always get aggressively rated.

 

in the past 10 BA lists I think they have only had 2 top 20 guys, and one of those was Tanaka who really shouldn't count (the other was Gleyber Torres)

[Laika]

Keith Law's Jays list seems a bit... lazy? As far as the right ups are concerned, I mean.

 

Keith Law’s prospect rankings: Toronto Blue Jays

 

 

By Keith Law 2h ago 4

The Jays’ system has been boosted by tremendously productive work on the international front, which has made up for some significant misses on college players in the draft the last few years.

 

The Top 10

 

1. Nate Pearson, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 11)

 

From Keith Law’s Top 100: Pearson bounced back last year from a lost 2018 season where he threw just one inning before the Arizona Fall League. A dominant 2019 campaign saw him strike out 104 batters in 83.2 innings between High A and Double A before a late-August promotion to Triple A that left him on the cusp of the big leagues. Pearson throws hard, sitting 97-100 mph and occasionally bumping 101-102, with a fierce slider that’s usually 86-90 when he starts but up to 92 when he’s pitched in relief. He even has some feel for a changeup that’s especially impressive given how hard he throws, with zero platoon split in 2019. He’s a good athlete and an extremely hard worker who looks and throws like a top-of-the-rotation starter, and the injuries he suffered in 2018 were flukes rather than anything related to his delivery. It’s control over command right now, but there’s no mechanical reason he can’t get to above-average command in time. As long as he keeps ramping up his workload, and maybe throws more quality strikes, he should end up at the top of a rotation in a few years.

 

2. Jordan Groshans, 3B (Top 100 rank: No. 73)

 

From Keith Law’s Top 100: Groshans was the Jays’ first-round pick in 2018 and got off to a terrific start in 2019 in the full-season Midwest League, hitting .337/.427/.482 in 23 games for Lansing before a left foot injury ended his year. Groshans has a pure hitter’s swing and has shown an elite ability to make adjustments to pitchers so far in his brief pro tenure. He rotates his hips early, and the power he has shown to date comes more from his hand strength than his legs — although that’s as much a timing issue as anything, and if it ever becomes an issue it’s probably fixable. A third baseman in high school and in 2018, Groshans moved to short last year and wasn’t terrible, but third or second remain more likely long-term positions for him. If he improves at short enough to stay there, his average/contact/OBP combination would make him a potential star even without big power. A full, healthy year in 2020 will help establish just how advanced his bat is and whether he has the power to be a star even in a corner.

 

3. Alek Manoah, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 76)

 

From Keith Law’s Top 100: The top college pitcher — and the second one selected — in the 2019 draft, Manoah had a dominant spring for West Virginia, punching out 144 batters against 27 walks in 108 innings for the Mountaineers. He’ll sit 94-95 deep into games, touching 98, with a four-pitch mix that includes an above-average changeup at 86-88 with great arm speed. His breaking stuff is less consistent, with the slider more of a chase pitch for righties while the curveball is more effective in or near the zone. He’s very big at 6-foot-6 and 260 pounds, and he pitches with intent, attacking hitters consistently with his fastball to set up everything else, including, quite often, more fastballs. He pitches from the stretch all the time, which is atypical but not a red flag, and was used a little heavily by West Virginia in the spring. Other than that, he checks all the boxes for a mid-rotation starter.

 

 

 

4. Orelvis Martinez, SS (Top 100 rank: No. 89)

 

From Keith Law’s Top 100: Martinez was just 17 in the GCL but hit seven homers, good for second in the league behind a 21-year-old org player, while also showing the plate discipline of a player a few years older. Signed in 2018 for $3.5 million, Martinez has impact tools across the board, with big-time bat speed and raw power already, as well as a 60 or better arm and great hands in the field. He’s a bit thickly built and is going to be very strong when he fills out, so the odds are he’ll end up at third base rather than at short, with a good shot to be above-average at the hot corner. He’d gotten away from the leg kick he used as an amateur but restored it last summer and went on a tear to finish his first pro season, hitting six of those seven homers in August, showing the ability to hit velocity and pick up breaking stuff as well. He’s still so young that you want to temper your enthusiasm, but he could be the Jays’ best prospect in a year.

 

5. Anthony Kay, LHP

 

Kay and No. 6 Simeon Woods Richardson were the return from the Mets for Marcus Stroman, with Kay the more advanced of the two while Woods Richardson has the higher ceiling. Kay should be a fourth starter in fairly short order; he’s consistently 92-94 mph with an above-average curveball and changeup, not having a clear plus pitch but with good feel and control. Triple A baseball didn’t agree with him, but that isn’t a reflection of how he’s pitched everywhere else.

 

6. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP

 

Woods Richardson is a strike-thrower already at age 19, sitting 93 with an average changeup. But he lacks an adequate breaking ball, and his arm is always late relative to his landing leg. He’s a good athlete and still quite young, so it’s easy to see the upside potential. But there’s a lot of reliever risk here too between the breaking-ball issue and the delivery.

 

7. Eric Pardinho, RHP

 

A command right-hander, Pardinho will miss the entire 2020 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and may not pitch again until mid-2021. He was up to 96 before his elbow started bothering him last season, with a four-pitch mix, but not necessarily showing a clear out pitch.

 

8. Gabriel Moreno, C

 

Moreno, who just turned 20 on Valentine’s Day, is coming off a promising partial season for Low-A Lansing where he hit .280/.337/.485 with surprising power for his build. He’s a very athletic catcher who needs work on receiving and blocking but should get there in time, with an above-average arm and good physical projection remaining.

 

9. Alejandro Kirk, C

 

Kirk has tremendous bat-to-ball skills, can receive and frame, and throws well. But he’s very heavy – listed at 5-foot-9 and 220 pounds – and has to improve his conditioning so he has the durability required for a catcher. He can really hit, though, and has walked more than he’s struck out at all three of his stops so far in pro ball.

 

 

Toronto Blue Jays

✔

@BlueJays

THAT'S how you end a game @alejandro_kirk | #ST2020

 

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10. Miguel Hiraldo, SS/2B

 

He gets overshadowed in this system by Orelvis, who has more impact at the plate, but Hiraldo has good hand-eye and makes a lot of contact, even with a slight tendency to overswing and collapse his backside. He’s probably not a shortstop in the longer term, with second base likely.

 

The Next 10

11. Dasan Brown, OF

 

Brown was the Jays’ third-round pick in 2019, a local kid from Ontario who was one of the fastest runners in the draft. He’s an 80 runner who’s already plus in center and could end up a Gold Glove-type defender out there. But there are a lot of questions with the bat right now – unsurprising given how young he is and his relative inexperience compared to kids from areas where they play more baseball year-round. The Jays sent him to the Appy League rather than the GCL, which was puzzling, and he struck out quite a bit, only salvaging his stat line by being hit by a pitch nine times in 63 plate appearances.

 

12. Adam Kloffenstein, RHP

 

The team’s second pick in 2018, Kloffenstein is a big, prototypical high school right-hander from Texas. His velocity backed up a little in his first full pro season as he transitioned from pitching once a week to working in a professional rotation, but he can still spin the ball well and has a good enough delivery to get to above-average control.

 

13. Leo Jimenez, SS

 

Jimenez is an elite defender at short with a good swing and promising exit velocities, but he’s so far from filling out that he hasn’t produced more than singles so far at the plate.

 

14. Patrick Murphy, RHP

 

Murphy has been up to 97 mph with a power breaking ball with good spin, but he’s been hurt more or less constantly since the Jays drafted him in 2014, with only 89 appearances in five-plus seasons. He also ran into trouble with the MLB Umpires’ Association, which ruled the toe-tap part of his delivery illegal and forced him to change it midseason.

 

15. Kendall Williams, RHP

 

Williams was the Jays’ second-round pick last year, a projectable right-hander from Florida who is 6-foot-6 and can show both velocity and spin on breaking stuff. But he needs help with consistency in his delivery and also has some physical maturation ahead of him.

 

16. T.J. Zeuch, RHP

 

Zeuch is a sinkerballer without a swing and miss pitch and who doesn’t have the pinpoint control he’d need to start, but he could be a useful long reliever. He’s 6-foot-7 and gets good plane on the ball, but the 2016 first-round pick also hasn’t developed anything to get lefties out.

 

17. Will Robertson, OF

 

Robertson has good power the other way, enough to profile as a regular in right field, but closes himself off at the plate so much that he can get locked up too easily when pitchers attack him inside with fastballs.

 

18. Sem Robberse, RHP

 

Robberse was pitching in the Dutch major league at 17 years old when the Jays signed him last July. He’s gone from 83-87 moh when they first saw him, to touching 93 with some spin on a breaking ball and feel for a changeup. He has one of the best deliveries in the Jays’ system and didn’t walk any of the 41 batters he faced in his pro debut.

 

19. Anthony Alford, OF

 

Alford is about to run out of chances with the Jays; he’s already out of options and has yet to produce even in Triple A, despite some of the best physical tools in the system and some history of plate discipline when he first moved to playing baseball full-time.

 

20. Thomas Hatch, RHP

 

Hatch was the return for David Phelps in a minor trade last July, and he pitched extremely well for the Jays in six starts after the deal — albeit at Double A, where he’d been pitching for almost two full seasons. Hatch was a sinker/slider guy with the Cubs, working in the low 90s but never generating as many groundballs as expected. The Jays had him use his changeup more, and his groundball rate also spiked. So while it might all be a tiny sample, he’s at least worth keeping an eye on. (The Jays also fired the pitching coach who told Hatch to ramp up the use of his change.)

 

2020 impact

 

Pearson is ready whenever the Jays want him to be, and Kay is probably more polished right now without Pearson’s huge upside. Zeuch could help the team in relief.

 

The fallen

 

It was a tough year for the Jays’ 2017 draft class outside of Pearson. First-rounder Logan Warmoth hit .235/.324/.333 between High A and Double A at age 23 and is moving off shortstop. Fourth-rounder Kevin Smith, who had a good half-season in Low A to start 2018 at age 22, was exposed in Double A last year, hitting .209/.263/.402 with a 32 percent strikeout rate.

 

Sleeper

 

Brown’s speed and defense give him as much upside as anyone in the system after their top 100 guys, and I think he’ll show more discipline at the plate when he’s not pushed to a level above his experience.

[P2F]

Of course Keith has to be the crazy high loon on a completely unheralded prospect, every f***ing time. This time it's Sem Robberse, who should be nowhere f***ing near a top 20 yet. And I find Robberse very interesting.

[BlueRocky]

I see Keith REALLY likes Dasan Brown, good to know.

[glory]

I guess my pleas of having Keith Law's name and content banned from this forum will never be enforced.

[Slade]

Sleeping on Kloffenstein. 2020 is going to be a big year for him if he stays healthy.

[max silver]

Of course Keith has to be the crazy high loon on a completely unheralded prospect, every f***ing time. This time it's Sem Robberse, who should be nowhere f***ing near a top 20 yet. And I find Robberse very interesting.

 

Not to mention s***ing on other legitimate prospects for no good reason. Cavan Biggio being a nothing prospect despite a nice season in AA immediately springs to mind.

[spats]

Spats shows up later, and even goes to Ray games prior to coming back to Ontario.

 

Heading down to Dunedin in a few weeks. Anxious to see the new park and get in some A ball games. Will catch the Jays in Tampa in late April.

[Ryu In My House]

Jays are 6th in the org prospect rankings. Too ugly to copy and paste

 

Really had to believe given the fact that Biggio, Bichette and Vladdy are all up now. That is really impressive.

[glory]

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2020/bluejays/

 

Don't know if this was posted, but updated top 30. Looks like a new layout as well.

 

1. Nate Pearson

2. Jordan Groshans

3. Simeon Woods Richardson

4. Alek Manoah

5. Alejandro Kirk

6. Orelvis Martinez

7. Gabriel Moreno

8. Miguel Hiraldo

9. Adam Kloffenstein

10. Anthony Kay

11. Kendall Williams

12. Eric Pardinho

13. Otto Lopez

14. Griffin Conine

15. Leonardo Jimenez

16. Estiven Machado

17. Dasan Brown

18. Rikelvin De Castro

19. Patrick Murphy

20. Reese McGuire

21. Anthony Alford

22. Santiago Espinal

23. Kevin Smith

24. Thomas Hatch

25. Julian Merryweather

26. Will Robertson

27. Riley Adams

28. Sem Robberse

29. Yennsy Diaz

30. Josh Winckowski

[Krylian]

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2020/bluejays/

 

Don't know if this was posted, but updated top 30. Looks like a new layout as well.

 

1. Nate Pearson

2. Jordan Groshans

3. Simeon Woods Richardson

4. Alek Manoah

5. Alejandro Kirk

6. Orelvis Martinez

7. Gabriel Moreno

8. Miguel Hiraldo

9. Adam Kloffenstein

10. Anthony Kay

11. Kendall Williams

12. Eric Pardinho

13. Otto Lopez

14. Griffin Conine

15. Leonardo Jimenez

16. Estiven Machado

17. Dasan Brown

18. Rikelvin De Castro

19. Patrick Murphy

20. Reese McGuire

21. Anthony Alford

22. Santiago Espinal

23. Kevin Smith

24. Thomas Hatch

25. Julian Merryweather

26. Will Robertson

27. Riley Adams

28. Sem Robberse

29. Yennsy Diaz

30. Josh Winckowski

 

I like the high SWR ranking. They're quite bullish on Estiven Machado too. I'll have to pay particular attention to him. Santiago Espinal is a non prospect as far as I'm concerned.

[Laika]

I was going to say good for Wincky but then I remembered that BP has him like, 9th!?

 

Did anyone post the BP scouting report?

[Ray]

I like the high SWR ranking. They're quite bullish on Estiven Machado too. I'll have to pay particular attention to him. Santiago Espinal is a non prospect as far as I'm concerned.

 

I'm curious why you think a guy with the bat-to-ball ability Espinal has is a non-prospect. Yes, he's old for the level and hasn't demonstrated he can hit for much power, but we've seen players with his profile come up and grow into power as they get adjusted. Not to mention, he apparently plays a good shortstop too. I wouldn't outright call him a non-prospect. I can quite easily see him become a Kike Hernandez type.

[jays4life19]

I was going to say good for Wincky but then I remembered that BP has him like, 9th!?

 

Did anyone post the BP scouting report?

 

I can, one second

[jays4life19]

9. Josh Winckowski, RHP

DOB: 6/28/98

Height/Weight: 6’4” / 202 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Acquired:

Previous Ranking(s): N/R

2019 Stats: 2.32 ERA, 3.74 DRA, 73 ⅔ IP, 62 H, 26 BB, 71 K in 13 games for Low-A Lansing; .319 ERA, 3.98 DRA, 53 ⅔ IP, 48 H, 17 BB, 37 K in 11 games for High-A Dunedin

 

The Report: Winckowski has been steadily moving up the organizational ladder since being drafted in 2016, but had a breakout season this year in A-ball. He gets good extension on his heavy fastball, which sits in the mid 90s with late life. The changeup works well off of the heater and is a potential swing-and-miss pitch. Winckowski replicates his arm action well and the pitch shows good arm-side fade. His slider is inconsistent and can lack depth, but has an average projection. Physically, he’s got the classic starter’s build and if the secondaries develop he would profile as an innings eater at the back of the rotation.

 

OFP: 50 / No. 4 starter or setup

 

Variance: High. Needs to get a bit more out of the breaking ball to reach his OFP and hasn’t pitched in the upper minors yet. —Nathan Graham

 

Major league ETA: 2021

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: A low-ceiling pitcher with high risk who’s not ready right now: sign me up! Just kidding. Please do not sign me up. In fact, please remove me from your email list.

[Spanky__99]

I'm curious why you think a guy with the bat-to-ball ability Espinal has is a non-prospect. Yes, he's old for the level and hasn't demonstrated he can hit for much power, but we've seen players with his profile come up and grow into power as they get adjusted. Not to mention, he apparently plays a good shortstop too. I wouldn't outright call him a non-prospect. I can quite easily see him become a Kike Hernandez type.

 

Agreed, I don't get that either.

[Spanky__99]

I can, one second

 

Hi friendo, have you shared the full listing before, if not could you?