Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Pendleton]

Nice to see the results start to match his skill level on a more consistent basis. The stat scouts who had him out of their top 10 will have to backtrack eventually.

 

Had to go back and check my list to see if I was one of those, ranked him fifth, seems about right.

[Laika]

Nice to see the results start to match his skill level on a more consistent basis. The stat scouts who had him out of their top 10 will have to backtrack eventually.

 

In Harris' last 22 and 1/3 innings he only has 13 strikeouts, to 4 BB. Are the results starting to match the skill level or is it some ER luck?

 

Strikeouts and walks carry more predictive weight in a small sample than hits or ER. This is a fact. His peripherals this year are mediocre at best, and downright bad in A+.

 

And to be clear I am not offering an opinion on him here. I actually agree that you need to scout his s*** to form one and I haven't read enough on him this year or seen him at all.

[43211234]

Dodgers are working with Driveline Baseball

 

http://www.dailynews.com/sports/20160815/dodgers-turn-to-driveline-to-boost-minor-leaguers-velocity?utm_content=bufferb8843&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

Featuring SRF's brother David.

[KingKat]

Dodgers are working with Driveline Baseball

 

http://www.dailynews.com/sports/20160815/dodgers-turn-to-driveline-to-boost-minor-leaguers-velocity?utm_content=bufferb8843&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

 

That was a really interesting read.

[Grant77]

In Harris' last 22 and 1/3 innings he only has 13 strikeouts, to 4 BB. Are the results starting to match the skill level or is it some ER luck?

 

Strikeouts and walks carry more predictive weight in a small sample than hits or ER. This is a fact. His peripherals this year are mediocre at best, and downright bad in A+.

 

And to be clear I am not offering an opinion on him here. I actually agree that you need to scout his s*** to form one and I haven't read enough on him this year or seen him at all.

 

Also, 43 K's and 12 walks in his last 73 innings. I came away impressed the two times I watched him and the scouting reports are still positive.

 

What I thought was encouraging is his 1.48 BB/9 in that stretch. Hopefully that indicates more consistent mechanics and improved command (he already had good control). I think we can stay in wait and see mode on the strikeouts, though there are obviously some concerns in the statistics. His back to back 11 K games earlier this year give some hope.

[Olerud363]

His back to back 11 K games earlier this year give some hope.

 

Why would that matter?? Is there any indication that standard deviation of strikeouts is important?? Is there any evidence that standard deviation of any stat is even a thing??

 

What I mean is??

 

Guy 1 120 innings - 80 strikeouts - a couple 11 strikeout games

Guy 2 120 innings - 80 strikeouts - no 11 strikeout games

 

What does this mean?? Anything?? So to end up with the same strikeout rate as Guy 2, Guy 1 must of had some 2 strikeout games, or a lot of 4 strikeout games.

 

UUUUHHHSSS This is nuts. I don't think having 11 strikeout games mean anything beyond the strikeout rate. I doubt the standard deviation of strikeouts is even meaningful, or that different among guys with the same strikeout rate.

[Olerud363]

Also, 43 K's and 12 walks in his last 73 innings. I came away impressed the two times I watched him and the scouting reports are still positive.

 

What I thought was encouraging is his 1.48 BB/9 in that stretch. Hopefully that indicates more consistent mechanics and improved command (he already had good control). I think we can stay in wait and see mode on the strikeouts, though there are obviously some concerns in the statistics. His back to back 11 K games earlier this year give some hope.

 

Vernon Wells and Alex Rios each had an amazing minor league season (1999 for Wells, 2003 for Rios) that made us all think they were the next Mike Trout... or the first Mike Trout I guess since Mike Trout did not exist then.

 

Each of the seasons were not that meaningful, beyond the effect they had on the entire average. Wells and Rios both had another mediocre minor league season. In the majors their careers were the same combination of good seasons and bad.

 

It is the averages that count, the more data the better, For any player I can a good game, week, month, and year.

[Krylian]

Is it just me or does JB Woodman strike out a f***ing lot?

[Orgfiller]

Vernon Wells and Alex Rios each had an amazing minor league season (1999 for Wells, 2003 for Rios) that made us all think they were the next Mike Trout... or the first Mike Trout I guess since Mike Trout did not exist then.

 

Each of the seasons were not that meaningful, beyond the effect they had on the entire average. Wells and Rios both had another mediocre minor league season. In the majors their careers were the same combination of good seasons and bad.

 

It is the averages that count, the more data the better, For any player I can a good game, week, month, and year.

 

It's not relevant to what you're arguing, but every team will take Wells and Rios' careers as Blue Jays from their prospects every time.

[burlingtonbandit]

Is it just me or does JB Woodman strike out a f***ing lot?

 

Strikeout rate isn't really an opinion lol. He either does or he doesn't.

[Krylian]

Strikeout rate isn't really an opinion lol. He either does or he doesn't.

 

It isn't? I'm sure if you ask 10 people here what the number is for a high strikeout rate you'll get a few different answers.

[King]

Is it just me or does JB Woodman strike out a f***ing lot?

 

He has a contact (swing and miss) problem. If he doesn't figure it out he'll probably get exposed at higher levels.

[Angrioter]

Also, 43 K's and 12 walks in his last 73 innings. I came away impressed the two times I watched him and the scouting reports are still positive.

 

What I thought was encouraging is his 1.48 BB/9 in that stretch. Hopefully that indicates more consistent mechanics and improved command (he already had good control). I think we can stay in wait and see mode on the strikeouts, though there are obviously some concerns in the statistics. His back to back 11 K games earlier this year give some hope.

 

He's looking like Jeff Hoffman before the trade. Now Jeff can strike guys out

[Olerud363]

It's not relevant to what you're arguing, but every team will take Wells and Rios' careers as Blue Jays from their prospects every time.

 

Yes it is relevant. Why wouldn't it be relevant??

 

I am just pointing out the standard deviation is a thing.

 

If Standard Deviation of any statistic is important, we should see that over many different statistics.

[Angrioter]

He has a contact (swing and miss) problem. If he doesn't figure it out he'll probably get exposed at higher levels.

 

Strikeout rate isn't really an opinion lol. He either does or he doesn't.

 

Is it just me or does JB Woodman strike out a f***ing lot?

 

Woodman is a stud athlete. I think he's a former football player, he's new at béisbol. Amirite?

He could be a steal or bust really soon; depend how he develop

[vilifyingforce]

Why would that matter?? Is there any indication that standard deviation of strikeouts is important?? Is there any evidence that standard deviation of any stat is even a thing??

 

What I mean is??

 

Guy 1 120 innings - 80 strikeouts - a couple 11 strikeout games

Guy 2 120 innings - 80 strikeouts - no 11 strikeout games

 

What does this mean?? Anything?? So to end up with the same strikeout rate as Guy 2, Guy 1 must of had some 2 strikeout games, or a lot of 4 strikeout games.

 

UUUUHHHSSS This is nuts. I don't think having 11 strikeout games mean anything beyond the strikeout rate. I doubt the standard deviation of strikeouts is even meaningful, or that different among guys with the same strikeout rate.

 

Sure it can, has his K rate been going up all season and the 11k games happen recently? Inconsistent mechanics is something many pitchers struggle with, if a guy falls into a groove and really nails his mechanics and dominates people then loses it for a while again would bring more hope to me about a pitcher improving then a guy who has a very steady k rate game to game. The more context you can give to numbers the more meaningful they become.

[Olerud363]

It's not relevant to what you're arguing, but every team will take Wells and Rios' careers as Blue Jays from their prospects every time.

 

They were both solid major league players... but not consistent stars. Their performance (minors and majors) is just perfectly normal variation around the true mean. When players have a high variation we come up with a nice story... but it may not be anything.

 

Grant is claiming 1 game variations are important.

 

I am claiming even 1 season variations may not be important.

[King]

Woodman is a stud athlete. I think he's a former football player, he's new at béisbol. Amirite?

He could be a steal or bust really soon; depend how he develop

He's not new at baseball but he did play QB in high school.

[Angrioter]

He's not new at baseball but he did play QB in high school.

 

I don't like 2 sports guys

[King]

I don't like 2 sports guys

You don't like Woodman because he played more than baseball in high school. Alright then. Most professional athletes (and normal high school athletes) play multiple sports growing up.

[Spanky__99]

You don't like Woodman because he played more than baseball in high school. Alright then. Most professional athletes (and normal high school athletes) play multiple sports growing up.

 

Not in Donkeyville, bro!

 

 

sry Ang.

[Angrioter]

You don't like Woodman because he played more than baseball in high school. Alright then. Most professional athletes (and normal high school athletes) play multiple sports growing up.

He splits time between fútbol and béisbol, that's the reason.

 

I like him really much. Extreme athlete with good pop

[THANOS]

He's looking like Jeff Hoffman before the trade. Now Jeff can strike guys out

 

Seeing that always makes me wonder if it was an organizational philosophy back in AA's tenure?

Edited August 17, 2016 by THANOS

[Olerud363]

Sure it can, has his K rate been going up all season and the 11k games happen recently? Inconsistent mechanics is something many pitchers struggle with, if a guy falls into a groove and really nails his mechanics and dominates people then loses it for a while again would bring more hope to me about a pitcher improving then a guy who has a very steady k rate game to game. The more context you can give to numbers the more meaningful they become.

 

That will be in the data then

 

If something is real it is in the data...

 

Nox and NJH will say "Of course standard deviation of strikeouts is important. It has actually been shown k-rate in top 5 games is much more predictive, than just k-rate"

 

Reality - it is what really happens

 

Thoughts - those are things that goes on in peoples heads. They may not reflect reality.

 

Data is not a magic thing for nerds... it is a record of what happened and what happened after that.

 

If 11 strikeouts happened that is great. But what happened next shows if the 11 strikeouts mean anything.

 

Grant - I think the fact he struck out 11 is very important

 

That is fine, but what is reality??

 

Reality is what really happens. If your top 5 games are just as important as all your games, or have some importance the smart people should know that and the data should show that.

[Jonn]

Seeing that always makes wonder if it was an organizational philosophy back in AA's tenure?

 

Or hes just getting better

[Jimcanuck]

That will be in the data then

 

If something is real it is in the data...

 

Nox and NJH will say "Of course standard deviation of strikeouts is important. It has actually been shown k-rate in top 5 games is much more predictive, than just k-rate"

 

Reality - it is what really happens

 

Thoughts - those are things that goes on in peoples heads. They may not reflect reality.

 

Data is not a magic thing for nerds... it is a record of what happened and what happened after that.

 

If 11 strikeouts happened that is great. But what happened next shows if the 11 strikeouts mean anything.

 

Grant - I think the fact he struck out 11 is very important

 

That is fine, but what is reality??

 

Reality is what really happens. If your top 5 games are just as important as all your games, or have some importance the smart people should know that and the data should show that.

 

Let's not read too much into minor league statistics. These are developing players. Some of them are going to be much better ballplayers than they were just 4-5 months ago. That being the case, the data from then is no longer representative.

[Grant77]

Why would that matter?? Is there any indication that standard deviation of strikeouts is important?? Is there any evidence that standard deviation of any stat is even a thing??

 

What I mean is??

 

Guy 1 120 innings - 80 strikeouts - a couple 11 strikeout games

Guy 2 120 innings - 80 strikeouts - no 11 strikeout games

 

What does this mean?? Anything?? So to end up with the same strikeout rate as Guy 2, Guy 1 must of had some 2 strikeout games, or a lot of 4 strikeout games.

 

UUUUHHHSSS This is nuts. I don't think having 11 strikeout games mean anything beyond the strikeout rate. I doubt the standard deviation of strikeouts is even meaningful, or that different among guys with the same strikeout rate.

 

All I was really pointing out is that he has the ability to punch out double digits in a single game when he has his good stuff. What Jon Harris (and most top prospects at his level) needs is more consistency. The Florida State league is a development league, not a performance league. If he finds that consistency at a higher level, like Hoffman and Sanchez did, then all is forgotten.

[vilifyingforce]

That will be in the data then

 

If something is real it is in the data...

 

Nox and NJH will say "Of course standard deviation of strikeouts is important. It has actually been shown k-rate in top 5 games is much more predictive, than just k-rate"

 

Reality - it is what really happens

 

Thoughts - those are things that goes on in peoples heads. They may not reflect reality.

 

Data is not a magic thing for nerds... it is a record of what happened and what happened after that.

 

If 11 strikeouts happened that is great. But what happened next shows if the 11 strikeouts mean anything.

 

Grant - I think the fact he struck out 11 is very important

 

That is fine, but what is reality??

 

Reality is what really happens. If your top 5 games are just as important as all your games, or have some importance the smart people should know that and the data should show that.

 

If you're only looking at it on a seasonal level then it will not be in the data. As I said context is important.

[Krylian]

Mitch Nay sighting in the CGL.

[vilifyingforce]

Mitch Nay sighting in the CGL.

 

2AB 2K's. womp womp.