Blue Jays vs. Rangers ALDS Thread

[Grant77]

The point is that it shouldn't be. They tried to run Sanchez out there for multiple innings in the regular season and IIRC the results were not good, every time.

 

IDGAF if he's faced 4 lefties and K'd all of them this series. Should be essentially a ROOGY or DP tool only in any one run game.

 

I give a f***. Lefties can not hit an Aaron Sanchez that locates his fastball.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Sanchez career splits:

 

RHB: .189 wOBA, 2.46 FIP

LHB: .351 wOBA, 6.15 FIP

 

fire Gibbons into the sun if Sanchez faces a lefty in a close game. Against Texas' lineup, that means ~2 batters maximum.

 

It's possible they believe he has made some sort of mechanical adjustment that has somewhat fixed his control problems. But I agree, if Sanchez gives up a HR to a LHB I'm going to freak.

[Laika]

an Aaron Sanchez that locates his fastball

 

Nice to know in advance, with 100% projectable certainty, that said unicorn will show up today.

[Grant77]

bad scientist

 

I can live with that if the Jays win. Current performance matters sometimes.

[CHRIS]

So the entire concept of a meaningful sample size gets thrown out the window because it's the playoffs? Osuna has been nails all year and Sanchez isn't a good matchup against lefties.

 

I guess it depends on what you're using the sample size to do.

 

For the purposes of winning today's game, I certainly think recent performance needs to be weighted higher than earlier season performance, for example.

[Jonn]

Sanchez numbers vs lefties include his starters numbers do they not? I haven't looked at his exclusive relief outings vs lefties. But he's clearly a different pitcher in relief. He's featured a cutter recently as well.

[King]

lol

[Grant77]

Nice to know in advance, with 100% projectable certainty, that said unicorn will show up today.

 

It's a lot more likely when he's been doing it to every batter for a long stretch. Pitchers have hot streaks too. You'd be begging to put Smoak in the lineup if he had 6 homers in his last 10 at-bats or something.

[Jonn]

It's a lot more likely when he's been doing it to every batter for a long stretch. Pitchers have hot streaks too. You'd be begging to put Smoak in the lineup if he had 6 homers in his last 10 at-bats or something.

 

I don't think we should extend the bullpen at all. You have to feel Stroman can go atleast 6 and Lowe, Sanchez, and Osuna can get you through the rest of the game. But if we are extending anyone today its Stroman. I just hope our offense can make these decisions easier.

[Laika]

It's a lot more likely when he's been doing it to every batter for a long stretch. Pitchers have hot streaks too. You'd be begging to put Smoak in the lineup if he had 6 homers in his last 10 at-bats or something.

 

These things work in degrees of probability and projectable certainty based on the size of the sample, and the magnitude of the sample. Sanchez' sample of recently being effective should essentially be meaningless when compared to his career sample of sucking against lefties.

 

Don't tell me what I would and would not Smoak.

[Grant77]

These things work in degrees of probability and projectable certainty based on the size of the sample, and the magnitude of the sample. Sanchez' sample of recently being effective should essentially be meaningless when compared to his career sample of sucking against lefties.

 

Don't tell me what I would and would not Smoak.

 

I'm very happy that you're not the manager. They say playoff baseball is different for good reason, it's not just a cliche.

[Laika]

I'm very happy that you're not the manager. They say playoff baseball is different for good reason, it's not just a cliche.

 

It's mostly a cliche.

 

Different because:

- off days

- elite pitching more important

- more attention

- losers of short series go home

- better team is far less likely to win than in a season long divisional race

 

Not different because:

- meaningful sample size considerations shrink into nothing and good managers can infallibly "trust their gut" and "ride the hot hand" to victory.

[Cyborg]

I'm very happy that you're not the manager. They say playoff baseball is different for good reason, it's not just a cliche.

It's different in how you use your bench and relievers. Not different in how you project player performance.

[Cyborg]

It's mostly a cliche.

 

- better team is far less likely to win than in a season long divisional race

 

No, just as likely to win, but more variance.

[KingKat]

No, just as likely to win, but more variance.

 

What does this even mean?

[Cyborg]

What does this even mean?

Over a full season, you could be 95% confident Jays between .400 and .700, with an average of .550 for example. Over 5 games it may be 95% between .100 and 1.000, with an average of .550. Still the same odds (.550), but the variance in outcomes is greater.

[Laika]

What does this even mean?

 

It's just robo-spittle. Nothing. We're talking about a binary result and which team will beat the other. The higher variance in R/G and RA/G is what causes the expected win% of the better team to be closer to 50%, compared to a bigger sample of games.

[Grant77]

It's mostly a cliche.

 

Different because:

- off days

- elite pitching more important

- more attention

- losers of short series go home

- better team is far less likely to win than in a season long divisional race

 

Not different because:

- meaningful sample size considerations shrink into nothing and good managers can infallibly "trust their gut" and "ride the hot hand" to victory.

 

Aaron Sanchez last 9 games:

 

8.1 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 10 K, 80 GB% (12-3)

 

We know Aaron Sanchez is streaky, we know he's got upper echelon stuff. Ride the f*** out of this hot streak, he's been as dominating as one could possibly be. By your logic, we wouldn't play Colabello or Estrada either, but it's working.

[Laika]

By your logic, we wouldn't play Colabello or Estrada either, but it's working.

 

classic Grant strawman

 

welcome back, buddy

[Laika]

There's no doubt in my mind though that Gibbons does probably feel OK about Sanchez vs. lefties right now. I think he's let him face Choo x2 and Odor once in this series, hasn't he?

[Grant77]

classic Grant strawman

 

welcome back, buddy

 

I was just waiting for the cop-out when you realized your logic was flawed. Took a little longer than I remember, you getting more stubborn?

[Grant77]

There's no doubt in my mind though that Gibbons does probably feel OK about Sanchez vs. lefties right now. I think he's let him face Choo x2 and Odor once in this series, hasn't he?

 

Yes, to great success. Like I said, IF he locates they can't hit him. Stuff was never the problem with lefties.

[intrigid]

No, just as likely to win, but more variance.

Not true. If you have 2 dice and I have one, I have a small but sizeable chance of rolling a higher number than you and beating you. But over a "season" of 100 rolls, it's absolutely statistically impossible for me to beat you.

 

So yes, smaller sample sizes do indeed favor the underdog.

[Grant77]

There aren't many things more flawed than small samples with arbitrary endpoints. Sanchez was awful in the five appearances that preceded your nine-game sample.

 

Streakiness of the type you're trying to apply here doesn't really exist. We don't know if Aaron Sanchez is a different pitcher now than he was a month ago.

 

I don't care if he's a fundamentally different pitcher. We know that he's performing at an elite level right now. If he loses his mechanics again next week then so be it, but it's illogical to predict that he'll fall apart in this game.

[Grant77]

Not true. If you have 2 dice and I have one, I have a small but sizeable chance of rolling a higher number than you and beating you. But over a "season" of 100 rolls, it's absolutely statistically impossible for me to beat you.

 

So yes, smaller sample sizes do indeed favor the underdog.

 

Try it, I'll bet you it's not a tie.

[Grant77]

There aren't many things more flawed than small samples with arbitrary endpoints. Sanchez was awful in the five appearances that preceded your nine-game sample.

 

Streakiness of the type you're trying to apply here doesn't really exist. We don't know if Aaron Sanchez is a different pitcher now than he was a month ago.

 

Let me ask you something. Who did you trust more coming into the playoffs. Brett Cecil or Liam Hendriks?

 

I think you'll see where I'm going and lie to prove your point, but let's see.

[reedjohnsonfan]

There aren't many things more flawed than small samples with arbitrary endpoints. Sanchez was awful in the five appearances that preceded your nine-game sample.

 

Streakiness of the type you're trying to apply here doesn't really exist. We don't know if Aaron Sanchez is a different pitcher now than he was a month ago.

 

I said this earlier, what if they believe Sanchez has made mechanical or psychological adjustments? He does look more calm and confident than a month ago. It's certainly possible, not that I would bet on it.

[Laika]

Hopefully irrelevant at the end of the day but lefties have two hits, a walk, and a run against Sanchez.