Could Smoak have a breakout season in 2016?

[AdamGreenwood]

Rasmus was a cancer in the clubhouse too.

You know when a guy like Lind openly talks s*** about a player he used to play with, there's something there.

[SoftHands]

LMAO smoak is garbage can't hit a breaking ball to save his life. .220-.230 hitter with some pop that's it.

[AdamGreenwood]

Some zipper head in Blue Jays front office is looking at advanced stats and saying that Smoak is putting up bettter WAR/game numbers than Colabello, without understanding that Colabello's war numbers are artificiially depressed as a result of playing out of position (outfield). If you just compare first base Colabello to first base Smoak, it's not even close.

 

And as for BABIP, it's not just good/bad luck. There's a reason why Trout consistently has a high BABIP, just like there's a reason that Smoak has consistently low BABIP which he nicely combines with a high strike out rate, to create a lifetime .225 batting average. Colabello should be playing everyday. There's really no reason to have a guy who can only play 1B and who has hit for s*** over 2600 MLB at bats on the team.

[Boxcar]

Some zipper head in Blue Jays front office is looking at advanced stats and saying that Smoak is putting up bettter WAR/game numbers than Colabello, without understanding that Colabello's war numbers are artificiially depressed as a result of playing out of position (outfield). If you just compare first base Colabello to first base Smoak, it's not even close.

 

And as for BABIP, it's not just good/bad luck. There's a reason why Trout consistently has a high BABIP, just like there's a reason that Smoak has consistently low BABIP which he nicely combines with a high strike out rate, to create a lifetime .225 batting average. Colabello should be playing everyday. There's really no reason to have a guy who can only play 1B and who has hit for s*** over 2600 MLB at bats on the team.

 

Smoak and Colabello suck just about equally.

[Dr. Dinger]

And as for BABIP, it's not just good/bad luck. There's a reason why Trout consistently has a high BABIP, just like there's a reason that Smoak has consistently low BABIP.

 

Bautista has a consistently low BABIP too, it's not just about being slow. If a lot of your hits proportionately are HR, you will have a low BABIP.

[Dr Negative]

Smoak would need to completely overhaul his swing in order to have a breakout season.

[Captain Adama]

Bautista has a consistently low BABIP too, it's not just about being slow. If a lot of your hits proportionately are HR, you will have a low BABIP.

 

Also, both Bautista and Smoak have a disproportionate amount of hits to their pull side, and teams will use that shift against them, extreme pull hitters tend to have a very low BABIP, especially if they're HR hitters like you said. See: Tiexeira, Mark.

[Dr. Dinger]

Smoak would need to completely overhaul his swing in order to have a breakout season.

 

I don't think that's necessarily true. He has a bat wrap currently, but if he eliminated that and got more short to the ball, I could see it paying major dividends. He has natural power, he doesn't need to load up to the hilt on every cut. It would certainly help with his breaking ball problem if he got more short to the ball, it would give him more time to see the pitch before committing.

[polar bear]

I was under the impression that was going to happen in 2015.

 

Me too,and I don't see him breaking out any time soon.

[AdamGreenwood]

Smoak and Colabello suck just about equally.

 

Yeah, hard to find room on the team for a guy with a .383 wOBA. Guy with those kind of s***** numbers would have to be a gold glove shortstop to justify a spot on the 25-man.

[Dr. Dinger]

Yeah, hard to find room on the team for a guy with a .383 wOBA. Guy with those kind of s***** numbers would have to be a gold glove shortstop to justify a spot on the 25-man.

 

*opens LOD bookmark*

*checks St. Louis Cardinals roster*

 

Yep.

[AdamGreenwood]

Okay, my recent praise of Colabello may have coincided with picking him up in LOD. But that doesn't change the fact that he's hitting .383 wOBA and taking a back seat to Justin Smoak.

[Dr. Dinger]

Nobody is debating what Colabello has done with the bat so far, what we're questioning is what he is going forward, since clearly this level of production is not sustainable. What's your O/U for his wOBA next year? I'd go under .340.

[Spanky99]

2.5 if you count Cola and think he is a now a legit stick.

 

I'm loving Cola this year, but that BABIP tells me it's an outlier, I'm certainly enjoying his success, and they're(Cola/Smoak) a pretty flipping good platoon.

[Spanky99]

I think Colabello probably won't even be in the majors this time next year. There's nothing about his line that looks at all sustainable, and the power is pedestrian.

 

Agreed, hope we're wrong.

[Spanky99]

Colby has a career .327 wOBA as a CF, Smoak has a career .308 wOBA as a 1B. Colby is an above average hitter at his position, Smoak is a below average hitter for his position, although his power has played well this year. Given 500 PAs, I think Smoak can easily hit 20-25 HR playing half his games at RC. I don't really see anything that leads me to believe a larger breakout is coming though, he's a flawed hitter with good power, that's it.

 

Yup, that platoon has it's warts, but it's working.

[BigCecil]

I'm loving Cola this year, but that BABIP tells me it's an outlier, I'm certainly enjoying his success, and they're(Cola/Smoak) a pretty flipping good platoon.

 

Love the story and will be sad with the inevitable fall from grace.

 

I think he has a few more good things in store for us this year though.

[Spanky99]

It's irrelevant, he wouldn't replace Pillar right now anyway and I doubt he's worth more than Revere as a left fielder. I'm not sure every team could use him. I don't think anyone here under appreciates Rasmus if that's what you're defending.

 

I think a lot of people do. Hence his response to the retard.

[Spanky99]

Hey, I like Pillar. I met him and he's a very humble guy who's putting together a nice season. However it's important to maintain some perspective. Rasmus is a much better hitter and Pillar is unlikely to have such a remarkably good defensive season next year, so I wouldn't pencil him in for 3+ WAR going forward. It's going to be almost impossible for him to be a consistent 3 WAR player if he's going to remain a sub-.300 wOBA bat.

 

Amen.

[Spanky99]

Love the story and will be sad with the inevitable fall from grace.

 

I think he has a few more good things in story for us this year though.

 

Yes, he's kind of locked in, and has the beisbol gods on his side.

[Jimcanuck]

In conclusion:

 

Pillar - 4th OF, pinchrunner, late inning defensive replacement

Colabello - AAAA player

Smoak - replacement level, bench bat, platoon player

[Atothe]

In conclusion:

 

Pillar - 4th OF, pinchrunner, late inning defensive replacement

Colabello - AAAA player

Smoak - replacement level, bench bat, platoon player

 

Jim getting to the heart of the conversation

[Spanky99]

In conclusion:

 

Pillar - 4th OF, pinchrunner, late inning defensive replacement

Colabello - AAAA player

Smoak - replacement level, bench bat, platoon player

 

Looking forward, most likely.

[L54]

Why would pillars defence get worse next year? Pillar is cheap and still has upside Rasmus does not

 

There's probably like a 75% chance this is Kevin Pillar's best season of his career.

[Jimcanuck]

There's probably like a 75% chance this is Kevin Pillar's best season of his career.

 

not so sure..... he's been inconsistent, typical of young players, but has shown he can swing a hot bat. he'll get more consistent with experience. i would consider it more likely he has a couple of better seasons than this one, down the road.

[L54]

not so sure..... he's been inconsistent, typical of young players, but has shown he can swing a hot bat. he'll get more consistent with experience. i would consider it more likely he has a couple of better seasons than this one, down the road.

 

We are talking about a sub 90 wRC+ bat putting up better than 3.5 WAR or whatever he finishes with. A lot of Pillar's value has come from his defense, which has been terrific. The problem with that is, terrific is hard to replicate.

[Jimcanuck]

Pillar is almost 27 and has a tonne of pro plate appearances under his belt. You can't expect him to get better. His best role is probably still fourth outfielder.

 

this is his first year with regular playing time. i'm not expecting him to become bautista, but he should increase his plate discipline and become less susceptible to slumps. to say it's 75% he will not have a better season than this one is statistically extreme

 

he's a 4th OF on a good team. if he isn't going to get regular playing time with the jays next season, i'm sure some team will move a useful player for him and play him every day. he'll get his chances to outperform 2015 and likely will

[L54]

this is his first year with regular playing time. i'm not expecting him to become bautista, but he should increase his plate discipline and become less susceptible to slumps. to say it's 75% he will not have a better season than this one is statistically extreme

 

Not really. 75% is probably better than someone who actually knew what they were talking about would give him.

 

he's a 4th OF on a good team. if he isn't going to get regular playing time with the jays next season, i'm sure some team will move a useful player for him and play him every day. he'll get his chances to outperform 2015 and likely will

 

I would make this my first official wager on BJMB.

[Jimcanuck]

Not really. 75% is probably better than someone who actually knew what they were talking about would give him.

 

 

 

I would make this my first official wager on BJMB.

 

a 6 or 7 year wager...... lol

[GD]

a 6 or 7 year wager...... lol

 

I am currently losing a wager over the productiveness of Kyle Drabek and Eric Stults over their entire careers. Step up your game.