AL MVP....Donaldson or Trout???

[MusicaEsLivida]

Should be donaldson. however, its a vote. we will see

[GD]

Trout crushed Donaldson in wRC+ (172 to 154), 0.2 higher WAR, higher wOBA, OBP & SLG.

 

Trout was a better hitter (by quite a bit) and overall player (by a slim margin) than Donaldson this year. He loses out on 2 stats which are highly dependant on his team and his hitting environment (note Trout and Donaldson hit .352 and .353 with RISP this year - so Donaldson doesn't get more RBI's by being "clutch").

 

That said - I think Donaldson will win because voters are swayed by things like counting stats and team success.....that is unless the voters decide Trout can't finish 2nd in the MVP voting for a 3rd time (which is stupid, but some are suggesting it).

 

You can't say "Trout crushed Donaldson in wRC+, wOBA, etc" and then list his WAR. WAR takes those things into account. It's double counting.

 

--

 

People who are saying that Trout having a higher WAR than Donaldson means he should be the MVP in this case are essentially saying "I believe that WAR is accurate enough to have error bars within 0.2 WAR" (or whatever the difference is), and I don't agree with that. WAR is not accurate down to within 0.2, sorry. Is it the best we have? Yes. Does that mean that we should give it to Trout for a difference that likely amounts to noise? No.

[Sammy225]

Should be donaldson. however, its a vote. we will see

 

And other people think it should be Trout.... You can't look at it only one way that is how close it is but i am of the belief that you do not look at team record due Blue Jays have a far far better supporting cast then the garbage around Trout.

 

You could also make the argument that Trout put up similar number despite no have hardly any protection behind him

[GD]

Win Expectancy metrics are some of the most underrated stats out there. I like RE24.

[Maahfaace]

Not to take anything away from Donaldson, but I'd take elite in CF over 3B. It's just the way I personally value the positions.

 

Trout isnt elite in CF though, hes an average defender, he's super elite with the bat

[Krylian]

Trout isnt elite in CF though, hes an average defender, he's super elite with the bat

 

That catch though...

[Maahfaace]

That catch though...

 

lol that catch by JD in tampa though....

[Jayday]

Who should it be , Trout or Josh ?

 

As a long time highly regarded jays forum poster once said......

 

WHO GEEEEEEFS A FAAAAAAAAAWK !!!!!!!

[Spanky99]

Who should it be , Trout or Josh ?

 

As a long time highly regarded jays forum poster once said......

 

WHO GEEEEEEFS A FAAAAAAAAAWK !!!!!!!

 

lol... this is true.

[Brownie19]

You can't say "Trout crushed Donaldson in wRC+, wOBA, etc" and then list his WAR. WAR takes those things into account. It's double counting.

 

--

 

People who are saying that Trout having a higher WAR than Donaldson means he should be the MVP in this case are essentially saying "I believe that WAR is accurate enough to have error bars within 0.2 WAR" (or whatever the difference is), and I don't agree with that. WAR is not accurate down to within 0.2, sorry. Is it the best we have? Yes. Does that mean that we should give it to Trout for a difference that likely amounts to noise? No.

 

Perhaps I didn't phase that the best. I was just saying he crushed Donaldson in wRC+......while also having a higher WAR, wOBA, OBP & SLG. I guess technically you're correct and it is double counting....but similarly, isn't it double counting to list RBIs and Runs after saying HRs?

 

I certainly wasn't saying Trout "should" be the MVP because his WAR was slightly higher - my point was he finished higher in most of the team and park related categories, while Donaldson ranked higher in more of the counting stats.

 

IMO - someone saying he finished 0.2 WAR higher is just bad as arguing that Donaldson finished with more RBIs and Runs.

[HERPDERP]

I think Trout is going to win it. The only thing Donaldson really has that outshines Trout is his RBI total, which we all know is team dependent.

[TBJ12]

I think Trout is going to win it. The only thing Donaldson really has that outshines Trout is his RBI total, which we all know is team dependent.

 

Trout's team didn't make it to the playoffs. I'd be shocked if Donaldson isn't the 2015 AL MVP.

[BTS]

You can't say "Trout crushed Donaldson in wRC+, wOBA, etc" and then list his WAR. WAR takes those things into account. It's double counting.

 

--

 

People who are saying that Trout having a higher WAR than Donaldson means he should be the MVP in this case are essentially saying "I believe that WAR is accurate enough to have error bars within 0.2 WAR" (or whatever the difference is), and I don't agree with that. WAR is not accurate down to within 0.2, sorry. Is it the best we have? Yes. Does that mean that we should give it to Trout for a difference that likely amounts to noise? No.

 

This is a good post.

[GD]

Perhaps I didn't phase that the best. I was just saying he crushed Donaldson in wRC+......while also having a higher WAR, wOBA, OBP & SLG. I guess technically you're correct and it is double counting....but similarly, isn't it double counting to list RBIs and Runs after saying HRs?

 

I certainly wasn't saying Trout "should" be the MVP because his WAR was slightly higher - my point was he finished higher in most of the team and park related categories, while Donaldson ranked higher in more of the counting stats.

 

IMO - someone saying he finished 0.2 WAR higher is just bad as arguing that Donaldson finished with more RBIs and Runs.

 

Yes. It is. You're absolutely correct. Double counting is a big problem. That's why boiling things down to one number based off of individual events is very helpful. Which is why wRC+, or for an overall picture, WAR, is very useful. Minimized double counting.

 

And, yes. I agree with your third paragraph/line/etc as well.

 

This is a good post.

 

Thanks grandpa, glad to know I'm slowly turning into you! It was an inevitability, really. I felt like you writing that post.

[Dr. Dinger]

I think Trout is going to win it. The only thing Donaldson really has that outshines Trout is his RBI total, which we all know is team dependent.

 

If you're going to dock Donaldson for having too good of a lineup around him, then you also need to dock Trout's IBB total for having garbage around him. You can't cherrypick which contexts you're going to ignore.

[Dreamer]

Donaldson all the way! #Topdog

[Olerud363]

If you're going to dock Donaldson for having too good of a lineup around him, then you also need to dock Trout's IBB total for having garbage around him. You can't cherrypick which contexts you're going to ignore.

 

Exactly. We also don't know how many unintentional intentional walks Trout got. That's why the 0.3 or whatever difference in WAR may not be reliable. Does the win probability stat take all that into account?? Context of the intentional walks and such.