AL MVP....Donaldson or Trout???

[Olerud363]

So what is the likelihood of all that happening?

 

This is just a guess but I'd say there is a 1/3 chance that somehow, some of the four players given up contribute very meaningfully to an As playoff run in the next 3 years.

 

Say there is also a 1/3 chance the Jays either don't make the playoffs, or just win a wild card and don't really go anywhere, then struggle the next couple of years.

 

As of right now I would guess there is 1/6 chance As win this trade, 5/6 that Jays do.

 

Just an estimate...

 

The trade was a 'now' trade for the Jays... given that the Jays have a 80% chance of making the playoffs... or whatever it is it has become increasingly likely the 'now' part will come true.

[Olerud363]

Olerud, are you talking to me? I never said Trout was obviously the MVP. I said Donaldson obviously wasn't when he finished fourth in the race two years ago.

 

No, not at all. The guy I was replying to was Stangstag, who said that "you should be ashamed of yourself" if you thought Donaldson deserved the MVP.

 

Looking over the thread most of the comments are pretty bang on... Trout is the better player year in year out, they are basically tied so far in 2015.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

lol at these rants. Olerud, for the love of god, go get your brain checked out. Wtf are you talking about. Completely useless posts.

[L54]

This is just a guess but I'd say there is a 1/3 chance that somehow, some of the four players given up contribute very meaningfully to an As playoff run in the next 3 years.

 

Say there is also a 1/3 chance the Jays either don't make the playoffs, or just win a wild card and don't really go anywhere, then struggle the next couple of years.

 

As of right now I would guess there is 1/6 chance As win this trade, 5/6 that Jays do.

 

Just an estimate...

 

The trade was a 'now' trade for the Jays... given that the Jays have a 80% chance of making the playoffs... or whatever it is it has become increasingly likely the 'now' part will come true.

 

My calculations show me that there is about 1/7 chance that these players are someday returning Billy Beane a 60% ROI given that Josh Donaldson is already almost 30 and if the Blue Jays fail to make the playoffs (1/3) over the next 5 years (1/2) that will push that number up higher.

[CHRIS]

I think there's a 1/1 chance that this thread has completely gone into the toilet.

[Caper]

Most Valuable Player

 

Does WAR not tell us which players are most valuable? Thats kinda why the stat exists.

 

But why does the award exist? The award exists so that writers can reinforce the narratives that they create which is why when you look at the history of the award, you'll see constant goal post shifting as to what the criteria actually are.

 

 

But can't the goal posts shift?

 

For the record I think Trout should get MVP if it was held today. And in general the player with the best war should also be the MVP... that's how it generally should work out. But I'm just arguing that it shouldn't have to.

 

Should a teams performance having anything to do with deciding MVP? Most on here would say no and loudly make fun of any old baseball writer that does take it into consideration. But I'm not so sure it should not mean at least something. If a bunch of a players WAR value comes from extra base hits he racks up in meaningless 5-1, 8-2 games, is it really value? If over the course of a year, 8 times Trout homers or triples in the 7th or 8th down 5 or 6 runs, while Donaldson singles or sac flies 8 times with walk-off wins. Of course Donaldson's contribution was more in those cases, but that would never show up in any WAR calculations. Of course my hypothetical never happened, but it is possible.

 

Then there other things. What if Trout was a club house cancer (he's not)? Sure club house cancers have won championships, but have they not also hurt teams as well? I would think so?

 

 

Anyway, that's all.

[Statman]

Gregg Zaun going full derp on Brady and Walker stating the only thing Donaldson is beating Trout in is RBI's.

[G-Snarls]

Gregg Zaun going full derp on Brady and Walker stating the only thing Donaldson is beating Trout in is RBI's.

 

Wha

[NotThatGuy]

Stangstag -- People are saying Donaldson over Trout should be ashamed of themselves.

 

Boxcar -- nobody is saying that

 

Who the f*** is boxcar anyway?? Hilary Clinton should hire him

 

The poeple - Hilary has classified e-mails on her server --

 

Boxcar - no she doesn't.. I am boxcar... reality is as I say... Moggie has left the building... now is my time.... I define reality.

 

Olerud363 -- "the people" said 0.2 difference in WAR is definitive enough that you should be ashamed of yourself if you think differently.

 

Boxcar -- no one said that.

 

Olerud363 -- one person said that.

 

So we can agree that both posters were wrong. Boxcar was wrong in that 1 person said it, rather than 0, but that mistake is irrelevant to the larger point. Olerud is wrong as to the larger point - that somehow "the people" (a term to be interpreted as indicative of a collective way of thinking, which would necessitate having to know WAR to more than one decimal if players were tied out to the first decimal) had determined that 0.2 WAR was definitive proof that one player was inarguably more valuable than another. Unless, of course, Olerud wants to try to argue that "Stangstag" is some kind of collective mind - some kind of alien life form collecting or controlling the minds of others. So, let's hear your alien theories, Olerud.

[Brownie19]

Gregg Zaun going full derp on Brady and Walker stating the only thing Donaldson is beating Trout in is RBI's.

 

I heard that. He was also saying he doesn't believe in 99.9% of sabrmetric stats, which made me giggle. It is amazing to see that Donaldson has provided more value on the base paths this year than Trout. I know they cut down on Trout's SB attempts to help limit injuries, but I figured he'd still be one of the most valuable base runners in baseball. Stats say otherwise.

[Olerud363]

Olerud363 -- "the people" said 0.2 difference in WAR is definitive enough that you should be ashamed of yourself if you think differently.

 

Boxcar -- no one said that.

 

Olerud363 -- one person said that.

 

So we can agree that both posters were wrong. Boxcar was wrong in that 1 person said it, rather than 0, but that mistake is irrelevant to the larger point. Olerud is wrong as to the larger point - that somehow "the people" (a term to be interpreted as indicative of a collective way of thinking, which would necessitate having to know WAR to more than one decimal if players were tied out to the first decimal) had determined that 0.2 WAR was definitive proof that one player was inarguably more valuable than another. Unless, of course, Olerud wants to try to argue that "Stangstag" is some kind of collective mind - some kind of alien life form collecting or controlling the minds of others. So, let's hear your alien theories, Olerud.

 

I wasn't implying there is a collective way of thinking... in fact I acknowledged that most of the posts in this thread were dead on... I had a typo when I retyped Stangstag's quote....

 

"People saying Donaldson over Trout should be ashamed of themselves." Is what he said.

 

As ussual the 'coorporate' bros are just arguing with my style, not substance... they earn a lot money posting on this board all day, selling mutual funds, or Tamsulosin (Flomax), or whatever.

 

To multitask they have to be concise.

[burlingtonbandit]

But can't the goal posts shift?

 

For the record I think Trout should get MVP if it was held today. And in general the player with the best war should also be the MVP... that's how it generally should work out. But I'm just arguing that it shouldn't have to.

 

Should a teams performance having anything to do with deciding MVP? Most on here would say no and loudly make fun of any old baseball writer that does take it into consideration. But I'm not so sure it should not mean at least something. If a bunch of a players WAR value comes from extra base hits he racks up in meaningless 5-1, 8-2 games, is it really value? If over the course of a year, 8 times Trout homers or triples in the 7th or 8th down 5 or 6 runs, while Donaldson singles or sac flies 8 times with walk-off wins. Of course Donaldson's contribution was more in those cases, but that would never show up in any WAR calculations. Of course my hypothetical never happened, but it is possible.

 

Then there other things. What if Trout was a club house cancer (he's not)? Sure club house cancers have won championships, but have they not also hurt teams as well? I would think so?

 

 

Anyway, that's all.

 

Wouldn't Win Probability Added show this?

[burlingtonbandit]

Some sort of Win Probability Added stat that incorporates defense and a context-specific positional adjustment is definitely a productive approach to bring to an MVP debate (current WPA only uses batting). WAR is purposefully context-free so doesn't measure the value a player has actually added to his team. It rather measures the average value of the events a player is involved in. Junk-time runs aren't very valuable.

 

Thats what I was thinking.

 

Checking Donaldson's Splits and the guy has over a .200 ISO after a 0-2 count. Thats absurd.

[Statman]

I heard that. He was also saying he doesn't believe in 99.9% of sabrmetric stats, which made me giggle. It is amazing to see that Donaldson has provided more value on the base paths this year than Trout. I know they cut down on Trout's SB attempts to help limit injuries, but I figured he'd still be one of the most valuable base runners in baseball. Stats say otherwise.

 

His rant on sabremetrics was just as bad. Even worse his analysis on "premium positions". He was implying there is no way he is as good as Trout because Trout plays a defensive position up the middle of the field. Basically he was implying only shortstops, catchers or centre fielders can provide MVP value to a team. If Donaldson played SS he would think about it differently.

[blurnandez]

His rant on sabremetrics was just as bad. Even worse his analysis on "premium positions". He was implying there is no way he is as good as Trout because Trout plays a defensive position up the middle of the field. Basically he was implying only shortstops, catchers or centre fielders can provide MVP value to a team. If Donaldson played SS he would think about it differently.

 

Wow.

[Effit]

His rant on sabremetrics was just as bad. Even worse his analysis on "premium positions". He was implying there is no way he is as good as Trout because Trout plays a defensive position up the middle of the field. Basically he was implying only shortstops, catchers or centre fielders can provide MVP value to a team. If Donaldson played SS he would think about it differently.

 

Lol. They don't call 3B the hot corner for nothing.

[Statman]

Click on the Donaldson Great, Trout Better Audio...LOL...the fun starts at 2:08

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/590/brady-and-walker/

[o2cui2i]

can we all just agree that roids have destroyed what little brain Zaun had and his big Mardi Gras head combined with is raisin sized balls have put him deep into the irrelevant zone.

 

http://www.maverickrugby.com/images/big-head-blue-hair.jpg

[NotThatGuy]

I wasn't implying there is a collective way of thinking... in fact I acknowledged that most of the posts in this thread were dead on... I had a typo when I retyped Stangstag's quote....

 

"People saying Donaldson over Trout should be ashamed of themselves." Is what he said.

 

As ussual the 'coorporate' bros are just arguing with my style, not substance... they earn a lot money posting on this board all day, selling mutual funds, or Tamsulosin (Flomax), or whatever.

 

To multitask they have to be concise.

 

I honestly have no idea what you're rambling on about.

 

YOU ... not Stangstag, nor the invisible man controlling your thoughts ... YOU typed the following, in your initial "attack":

 

"When it was Trout 10ish - Cabrerra 6 the people said Trout was obviously the MVP and one was an idiot to think otherwise. When it was Trout 6.5, Donaldson 6.3 they said the same, the 0.2 difference seemed just as relevant as the 4 WAR difference." [boldface added for emphasis]

 

That was a reference to multiple people ... hence "the people" and "they." And it was commentary on not relying solely on WAR, because "the people" did collectively think that way, and you didn't think that was proper.

 

Perhaps you just forgot what you typed.

[Jimcanuck]

Anyone else think Donaldson is going to lose votes relative to Trout due to 9 of the top 20 WAR leaders are ALE, whereas only 3 of the top 20 are ALW?

[Krylian]

Anyone else think Donaldson is going to lose votes relative to Trout due to 9 of the top 20 WAR leaders are ALE, whereas only 3 of the top 20 are ALW?

 

I'm not sure what that has to do with anything?

[kenny]

Should Donaldson bat stay hot just for a few more weeks my vote is on him, guys check this out you may like http://www.101livesportsvideos.com

[Jimcanuck]

I'm not sure what that has to do with anything?

 

you don't know how MVP voting works then

[Olerud363]

I honestly have no idea what you're rambling on about.

 

YOU ... not Stangstag, nor the invisible man controlling your thoughts ... YOU typed the following, in your initial "attack":

 

"When it was Trout 10ish - Cabrerra 6 the people said Trout was obviously the MVP and one was an idiot to think otherwise. When it was Trout 6.5, Donaldson 6.3 they said the same, the 0.2 difference seemed just as relevant as the 4 WAR difference." [boldface added for emphasis]

 

That was a reference to multiple people ... hence "the people" and "they." And it was commentary on not relying solely on WAR, because "the people" did collectively think that way, and you didn't think that was proper.

 

Perhaps you just forgot what you typed.

 

OK fine. You are right. Only Stangnstag was outright stupid. Boxcar was arguing heavily for WAR. He also had a couple of "Holy f***" one line replies directed at me, which made it seem he was also arguing with Stangstag.

 

Oh f*** it...

 

Bow before Moogie!

[TheHurl]

Anyone else think Donaldson is going to lose votes relative to Trout due to 9 of the top 20 WAR leaders are ALE, whereas only 3 of the top 20 are ALW?

 

ALE will be a voting factor...but it's more like who gets bought the most drinks prior to voting time.

[NotThatGuy]

OK fine. You are right. Only Stangnstag was outright stupid. Boxcar was arguing heavily for WAR. He also had a couple of "Holy f***" one line replies directed at me, which made it seem he was also arguing with Stangstag.

 

Oh f*** it...

 

Bow before Moogie!

 

The petty personal shots are unnecessary. When you're wrong, just admit it and move on.

 

And, for the record, Boxcar didn't start in on you until well after you made the comments I highlighted, so unless you broke the space/time continuum while posting, his "one line replies" couldn't have had any effect on you making your "the people" comments. I know you'll come back with some MBA, lawyer or "corporate" digs, but those are just facts. Actual, true facts, not dreamt up realities or hypotheticals. Stick to the facts - to what actually exists - and you'll have less people to try to put down as being "corporate," unless you actually mean to make "corporate" synonymous with "reality." Thanks.

 

It was a pleasure conversing with you, and I'm glad the dispute was resolved to the satisfaction of all parties involved.

[Boxcar]

OK fine. You are right. Only Stangnstag was outright stupid. Boxcar was arguing heavily for WAR. He also had a couple of "Holy f***" one line replies directed at me, which made it seem he was also arguing with Stangstag.

 

Oh f*** it...

 

Bow before Moogie!

 

My "holy f***" posts are a response to your TL;DR style of incoherent babbling.

[Olerud363]

The petty personal shots are unnecessary. When you're wrong, just admit it and move on.

 

And, for the record, Boxcar didn't start in on you until well after you made the comments I highlighted, so unless you broke the space/time continuum while posting, his "one line replies" couldn't have had any effect on you making your "the people" comments. I know you'll come back with some MBA, lawyer or "corporate" digs, but those are just facts. Actual, true facts, not dreamt up realities or hypotheticals. Stick to the facts - to what actually exists - and you'll have less people to try to put down as being "corporate," unless you actually mean to make "corporate" synonymous with "reality." Thanks.

 

It was a pleasure conversing with you, and I'm glad the dispute was resolved to the satisfaction of all parties involved.

 

The comments you highlighted were from just yesterday. Boxcar went off on me a week ago when I was replying to Stangstag.

 

I understand now he was only replying to my wordy and convoluted style, and wasn't agreeing with Stangstag. I didn't realize that at the time.

[Brownie19]

Anyone else think Donaldson is going to lose votes relative to Trout due to 9 of the top 20 WAR leaders are ALE, whereas only 3 of the top 20 are ALW?

 

No I don't, because I doubt many MLB writers (who vote) would even know that stat, or pay any attention to it.

[Olerud363]

My "holy f***" posts are a response to your TL;DR style of incoherent babbling.

 

Yes I realize that. Which is fine. As ussual the only person that is truly pissing me off on this thread is Moogie....