A Business Case for claiming James Shields

[Dr. Dinger]

How many pitchers can be effective after 35?

 

High risk

 

How many pitchers were ever as effective as James Shields? Your age cutoff is arbitrary, and I disagree that it's a high risk investment. Even if he's a league average pitcher through 2019, the salary isn't going to murder us.

[KingKat]

How many pitchers can be effective after 35?

 

High risk

 

Dude, it's three years.

[JaysRap]

I'm all about picking up Shields in the August waiver. Also would still like K-Rod to have an actual bonafide closer. Sorry - not trying to high jack thread but IF Osuna is going into the rotation next year and it has:

 

SP Shields

SP Stroman

SP Sanchez

SP Osuna

SP ???

 

you're gonna need to fill in bullpen holes.

 

Rodriguez remaining salary: 2015: $3.5M, 2016: $7.5M, 2017: $6M Club Option ($2M buyout)

 

K-Rod also has 10 series playoff experience (5-4, 3 SV, 2.95 ERA, 1.3 WHIP)

 

Speaking of which James Shields playoffs record in 11 games: 3-6, 5.46 ERA, 1.5 WHIP

 

BUT I would still take them both.

 

Side Note: I'm sure Shields would love to stick it to Kansas City if we made the playoffs and he had to face them. The storyline alone just helps make a potential series with the Royals must see.

[Dr. Dinger]

 

SP Shields

SP Stroman

SP Sanchez

SP Osuna

SP ???

 

 

Dickey's option is pretty reasonable for next year, as a mid-rotation option. Otherwise, there will be plenty of payroll to pursue another FA pitcher in addition to Shields.

[Ziggyy108]

I know its a pipe dream but can we still get Carrasco.

[DuckDuckGose]

Would love to see it happen but I don't see Rogers taking on that contract.

[Dr. Dinger]

Would love to see it happen but I don't see Rogers taking on that contract.

 

The only salary that Rogers should care about is his remaining prorated 2015 salary, which is less than $3M. There's about $40M coming off the books next season, more than enough to absorb Shields and still manuever.

[Trouba95]

If you guys had a choice between Quintana or Carrasco, who would deal for with the assumption they're open to trading?

[nmrch]

Shields: 1.2 WAR

 

vs

 

Hutch: 1.5 WAR

AcEstrada: 1.3 WAR

 

Yes. #Sabred!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i'm joking peeps

 

I know you're joking but WAR is decieving because it uses FIP. Shields has had a HR/FB% problem, he's having a very good season actually, 3.36 xFIP, his best over the last three years

[Dr. Dinger]

If you guys had a choice between Quintana or Carrasco, who would deal for with the assumption they're open to trading?

 

What's the point in discussing this right now? Neither would make it through waivers.

[nmrch]

How many pitchers can be effective after 35?

 

High risk

 

You're only exposed to 2 past 35 seasons and it probably won't be that bad. He might not be a #2 guy at that point but he'll probably still be a solid #4 who eats up innings, like Buerhle, that alone is worth the contract let alone the surplus value he can give you this year and the next.

[Daniel Labude]

Wouldn't mind replacing Hutch with Shields and Estrada with Stroman if he returns.

 

In the long run. If the team is willing to blow that much money, would rather throw it at Price or Cueto.

[Virgil_Hiltz]

Option 1: Claim James Shields.

Option 2: Do not claim Shields and look to work out trade if he passes through waivers.

Option 3: Do nothing.

Option 4: Claim Sheilds and make a deal with the Padres.

Then in off season trade him for about what you gave up for him.

*Just to stop him from going to the New York Stank-ees!

[Dr. Dinger]

Wouldn't mind replacing Hutch with Shields and Estrada with Stroman if he returns.

 

In the long run. If the team is willing to blow that much money, would rather throw it at Price or Cueto.

 

There's no way you're getting either of those pitchers for $20M AAV, or on 4 year deals.

[nmrch]

Wouldn't mind replacing Hutch with Shields and Estrada with Stroman if he returns.

 

In the long run. If the team is willing to blow that much money, would rather throw it at Price or Cueto.

 

Cueto will cost 220 million, Price probably 240 million, Shields is owed 64 million prorated. Big difference.

[DuckDuckGose]

The only salary that Rogers should care about is his remaining prorated 2015 salary, which is less than $3M. There's about $40M coming off the books next season, more than enough to absorb Shields and still manuever.

 

It wouldn't cripple the financials I just don;t think anyone in baseball likes that contract. I just find it doubtful that they would work to move Reyes' contract and finally get out from Buehrle's backloaded deal to just take on another backloaded player-friendly contract.

 

Again, I'd love to see it. He's a great fit IMO and would replace Buehrle nicely when he inevitably walks.

[Dr. Dinger]

It wouldn't cripple the financials I just don;t think anyone in baseball likes that contract. I just find it doubtful that they would work to move Reyes' contract and finally get out from Buehrle's backloaded deal to just take on another backloaded player-friendly contract.

 

Again, I'd love to see it. He's a great fit IMO and would replace Buehrle nicely when he inevitably walks.

 

Buehrle's contributions have been right in line with his salary, that was a solid contract. It looked large at the time it was signed, but let's not forget that inflation is a thing -- another pro for Shields' deal.

[Daniel Labude]

Cueto will cost 220 million, Price probably 240 million, Shields is owed 64 million prorated. Big difference.

 

Aren't they 3 and 4 yrs younger than Shields. So, under normal progression of careers the bad part of a 7 yr contract would be after 5 yrs. Better team value than throwing 20 million at a sharply declining 36 yr old in 3 yrs

[Trouba95]

What's the point in discussing this right now? Neither would make it through waivers.

 

Offseason.

[nmrch]

It wouldn't cripple the financials I just don;t think anyone in baseball likes that contract. I just find it doubtful that they would work to move Reyes' contract and finally get out from Buehrle's backloaded deal to just take on another backloaded player-friendly contract.

 

Again, I'd love to see it. He's a great fit IMO and would replace Buehrle nicely when he inevitably walks.

 

I'm not sure people around the league think Shields is nothing but a bad contract, 20 million AAV for only 3 years is not a lot of money for a guy like Shields.

[nmrch]

Aren't they 3 and 4 yrs younger than Shields. So, under normal progression of careers the bad part of a 7 yr contract would be after 5 yrs. Better team value than throwing 20 million at a sharply declining 36 yr old in 3 yrs

 

Shields will cost 20 million a year for his age 34-36 seasons. Conservatively speaking, Price and probably Cueto will cost 25+ million a year from ages 34-36 and even past 36, AND they require a way bigger upfront commitment. These are not similar scenarios at all.

[DuckDuckGose]

Phillies paid Revere's salary I thought? Might not be any payroll left.

[DuckDuckGose]

I'm not sure people around the league think Shields is nothing but a bad contract, 20 million AAV for only 3 years is not a lot of money for a guy like Shields.

 

I think he's viewed like Buehrle was at the time of the MIA. A useful player that is overpaid bc of the backloaded portion of their deal.

[DuckDuckGose]

Buehrle's contributions have been right in line with his salary, that was a solid contract. It looked large at the time it was signed, but let's not forget that inflation is a thing -- another pro for Shields' deal.

 

In terms of wins per $ it wasn't a bad deal but $22M in 2015 for Buehrle isn't good payroll mgmt. That's 1/6th of payroll for a very good 3/4 pitcher.

[Dr. Dinger]

Phillies paid Revere's salary I thought? Might not be any payroll left.

 

It's not a cut and dry issue. As with all budgets, overruns can be approved depending on their utility. This provides a tangible improvement for the stretch run while providing cost certainty next year, I find it very improbable that Rogers would take a hard line on this, especially because they never have before.

[Daniel Labude]

Shields will cost 20 million a year for his age 34-36 seasons. Conservatively speaking, Price and probably Cueto will cost 25+ million a year from ages 34-36 and even past 36, AND they require a way bigger upfront commitment. These are not similar scenarios at all.

 

Exactly...they are not the same. It would be better to go with Price or Cueto if the owners are willing to spend/throw some money away in later years to win now.

[Dr. Dinger]

In terms of wins per $ it wasn't a bad deal but $22M in 2015 for Buehrle isn't good payroll mgmt. That's 1/6th of payroll for a very good 3/4 pitcher.

 

Buerhle's salary this year was $20M, and he'll provide about 2.5 WAR for that. $8M per WAR is the market rate, and a very sound investment when your core players (Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnacion) are on such ridiculously profitable contracts.

[DuckDuckGose]

Except Rogers has taken a hard line in the past. Last season there were no deadline acquisitions and by all accounts a large part of that was related to team payroll and an inability to add $. In 2015 I think we saw the same pattern. The Jays had limited funds and it impacted their ability to add players. Luckily, AA was able to get creative and make some deals happen and the money work but I haven't been given the impression that Rogers has greenlighted any additional funds.

[DuckDuckGose]

Exactly...they are not the same. It would be better to go with Price or Cueto if the owners are willing to spend/throw some money away in later years to win now.

 

Cueto and Shields aren't that far off but Price is a better player than both of them.

[Dr. Dinger]

Except Rogers has taken a hard line in the past. Last season there were no deadline acquisitions and by all accounts a large part of that was related to team payroll and an inability to add $. In 2015 I think we saw the same pattern. The Jays had limited funds and it impacted their ability to add players. Luckily, AA was able to get creative and make some deals happen and the money work but I haven't been given the impression that Rogers has greenlighted any additional funds.

 

Says who? I've seen no evidence of that. It's one thing to take on $15M or $20M in payroll, it's quite another to add less than $3M.