A Business Case for claiming James Shields

[Dr. Dinger]

Objective: Bolster current starting rotation for playoff run with minimal impact to 2015 salary or farm system.

 

Requested Budget:

 

2015: Approximately $2.7M prorated salary (45/162*$10,000,000)

2016: $21M

2017-2019: $0-$58M; player option

 

Pros:

 

- Provides viable SP2 for remainder of 2015 and playoffs (projected 1.2 WAR ROS)

- Likely to provide 200 innings at or above replacement level in 2016

- K and whiff rates at career high, predicting success for ROS

- Aligns with payroll flexibility for 2016 and beyond

- Reduces the need to spend on SP in 2016 free agency

- Reduces workload on bullpen ROS

- Repertoire predictive of gradual rather than precipitous decline (see: Buerhle)

 

Cons:

 

- Age is concerning (33)

- Slight velo drop this season

- HR rate has spiked despite playing at favourable park

- May opt out of contract after 2016 if market conditions are favourable

- May exercise options for 2017-2019 if market conditions are unfavourable

 

Assumptions:

 

- Significant payroll will be cleared heading into 2016 with the departures of Buerhle, Navarro, Romero, Estrada, and potentially Dickey

- Payroll cap for 2016 will remain constant or increase

- Blue Jays will be a viable contender in 2016

- Padres will place James Shields on revocable waivers

- James Shields will pass through waivers or reach Blue Jays waiver position

- Padres would like salary relief based on position on win curve

- Padres are willing to trade James Shields for minimal prospect return in exchange for salary relief

 

Risks:

 

- Possibility of steep decline would leave the Jays locked into a 3 year commitment on average-to-below-average pitcher from 2017-2019

 

Mitigation:

 

- Due to increased payroll flexbility in 2016 and beyond, $58M commitment to roughly league average pitcher would not be significantly detrimental to flexbility

 

Recommendation: Claim James Shields when he hits revocable waivers, with willingness to trade non-premium prospects and/or absorb full contract.

[GD]

tldr: James Shields is gud at beisbol let's get him

[HERPDERP]

Is Shields good enough to replace Hutchison or Estrada?

 

And if you were to claim Shields, do you demote players from the BP and weaken it? Do you demote Hutchison?

[baubau]

Recommendation: Claim James Shields when he hits revocable waivers, with willingness to trade non-premium prospects and/or absorb full contract.

 

I cannot see this team taking on Shields without SD taking on salary. I would love to trade for him if the price was a non-premium prospect but I can also see SD trying to ask for the moon i.e. Pompey/Alford and Travis.

[Dr. Dinger]

tldr: James Shields is gud at beisbol let's get him

 

Most execs skip ahead to the recommendation anyway.

[BTS]

Is Shields good enough to replace Hutchison or Estrada?

 

And if you were to claim Shields, do you demote players from the BP and weaken it? Do you demote Hutchison?

 

Price

Shields

Buehrle

Dickey

Hutchison

 

Estrada to pen.

[BTS]

But yeah, Valencia DFA + salary retained in Revere deal suggests that there are like 0 dollars available.

[Caper]

Objective: Bolster current starting rotation for playoff run with minimal impact to 2015 salary or farm system.

 

Requested Budget:

 

2015: Approximately $2.7M prorated salary (45/162*$10,000,000)

2016: $21M

2017-2019: $0-$58M; player option

 

Pros:

 

- Provides viable SP2 for remainder of 2015 and playoffs (projected 1.2 WAR ROS)

- Likely to provide 200 innings at or above replacement level in 2016

- K and whiff rates at career high, predicting success for ROS

- Aligns with payroll flexibility for 2016 and beyond

- Reduces the need to spend on SP in 2016 free agency

- Reduces workload on bullpen ROS

- Repertoire predictive of gradual rather than precipitous decline (see: Buerhle)

 

Cons:

 

- Age is concerning (33)

- Slight velo drop this season

- HR rate has spiked despite playing at favourable park

- May opt out of contract after 2016 if market conditions are favourable

- May exercise options for 2017-2019 if market conditions are unfavourable

 

Assumptions:

 

- Significant payroll will be cleared heading into 2016 with the departures of Buerhle, Navarro, Romero, Estrada, and potentially Dickey

- Payroll cap for 2016 will remain constant or increase

- Blue Jays will be a viable contender in 2016

- Padres will place James Shields on revocable waivers

- James Shields will pass through waivers or reach Blue Jays waiver position

- Padres would like salary relief based on position on win curve

- Padres are willing to trade James Shields for minimal prospect return in exchange for salary relief

 

Risks:

 

- Possibility of steep decline would leave the Jays locked into a 3 year commitment on average-to-below-average pitcher from 2017-2019

 

Mitigation:

 

- Due to increased payroll flexbility in 2016 and beyond, $58M commitment to roughly league average pitcher would not be significantly detrimental to flexbility

 

Recommendation: Claim James Shields when he hits revocable waivers, with willingness to trade non-premium prospects and/or absorb full contract.

 

 

 

I think the bolded belongs in the pro section.

[GD]

Is Shields good enough to replace Hutchison or Estrada?

 

And if you were to claim Shields, do you demote players from the BP and weaken it? Do you demote Hutchison?

 

yes, yes and no?

 

Most execs skip ahead to the recommendation anyway.

 

Straight to the file cabinet for you

[jays76]

Is Shields good enough to replace Hutchison or Estrada?

 

And if you were to claim Shields, do you demote players from the BP and weaken it? Do you demote Hutchison?

 

Hutch has been awful and could use some time to straighten his s*** out, he's a big liability and I don't see him getting it together anytime soon. Shields could potentially put us over the top into elite territory at a very minimal cost this year. The problem is the remaining years on his contract, I couldn't see the Jays committing to that as much as I'd love to see it. I think the Jays stand pat.

[baubau]

Price

Shields

Buehrle

Dickey

Hutchison

 

Estrada to pen.

 

You make Estrada the long man and cut/demote Schultz. Hendriks promoted to high leverage.

 

Shields is significantly better than Estrada. He fits this team well.

 

Nah man, we gotta platoon Hutch. On the road, Estrada. At home, Hutch.

Can't believe you need to platoon a pitcher based on location but that's how unlucky Hutch has been this year. Yikes..

[TRM]

I think the Padres might be deluded enough to want to keep him.

[Governator]

Welcome... your Torontooooooo Blue Raaayss

[jays76]

Nah man, we gotta platoon Hutch. On the road, Estrada. At home, Hutch.

Can't believe you need to platoon a pitcher based on location but that's how unlucky Hutch has been this year. Yikes..

 

Unlucky or a steaming pile of dog s***?

[baubau]

Welcome... your Torontooooooo Blue Raaayss

 

Well s***, get Kiermaier and BTS/Hurl will be going to every Jays game.

[KingKat]

You make Estrada the long man and cut/demote Schultz. Hendriks promoted to high leverage.

 

Shields is significantly better than Estrada. He fits this team well.

 

Both Loup and Schultz have options. Either could be demoted depending on how comfortable one is with Cecil as the lone lefty. (I don't have much of an issue with it myself).

[baubau]

Unlucky or a steaming pile of dog s***?

 

Unlucky.

[Dr. Dinger]

But yeah, Valencia DFA + salary retained in Revere deal suggests that there are like 0 dollars available.

 

My mitigation strategy in that case is to have the Pads chip in $2-3M or eat Navarro in exchange for a low level prospect.

[Dr. Dinger]

But really, the whole argument is for the additional ~$3M to cover his remaining salary. I seriously doubt Rogers' payroll is so restrictive that it doesn't allow for such a relatively minor unbudgeted expense in light of our position on the win curve and potentially expanded revenues from playoffs and stretch-run ticket sales.

[Boxcar]

Is Shields good enough to replace Hutchison or Estrada?

 

wat

 

is this a real question?

[Sammy225]

wat

 

is this a real question?

 

Estrada almost had 2 no-nos BRAH!!!!

[baubau]

wat

 

is this a real question?

 

Shields: 1.2 WAR

 

vs

 

Hutch: 1.5 WAR

AcEstrada: 1.3 WAR

 

Yes. #Sabred!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i'm joking peeps

[TheHurl]

I think the Padres might be deluded enough to want to keep him.

 

they will place him on waivers regardless. i don't mind the concept. There is a buzz in Toronto right now that has only been seen once in 25 years (from November 2012 until about mid April 2013), if the Jays make a big playoff run there is no doubt it will carry over through most of the off-season...but a small taste of October excitement (a one game and done or just miss) and there will be expectations that the spending will continue. Only real negative I see from a GM/PR point of view is that Shields might be seen as the reason they don't sign Price.

 

The risk here is still the same though. Do you continue to spend on a smallish chance that you are making a deep run. At this point I say the Jays should go balls out and spare no expenses.

[TheHurl]

or eat Navarro

 

Not if Navarro eats them first

[RealAccountant]

Alternatives?

[Angrioter]

Objective: Bolster current starting rotation for playoff run with minimal impact to 2015 salary or farm system.

 

Recommendation: Claim James Shields when he hits revocable waivers, with willingness to trade non-premium prospects and/or absorb full contract.

 

http://i.imgur.com/PklJT9J.gif

[Dr. Dinger]

Alternatives?

 

Option 1: Claim James Shields.

Option 2: Do not claim Shields and look to work out trade if he passes through waivers.

Option 3: Do nothing.

[Dr. Dinger]

http://i.imgur.com/PklJT9J.gif

 

Is it really that scary? He'd basically just become our Buerhle next year and business would continue as usual.

[Dr. Dinger]

Option 1: Claim James Shields.

Option 2: Do not claim Shields and look to work out trade if he passes through waivers.

Option 3: Do nothing.

 

And of these options, I'd go for Option 1, because I think there's a legit chance the Yankees will put in a claim.

[Angrioter]

And of these options, I'd go for Option 1, because I think there's a legit chance the Yankees will put in a claim.

 

How many pitchers can be effective after 35?

 

High risk