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Can the Yankees catch the Jays? (Jays/Yankees watch)

jays76

By jays76
in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

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RealAccountant Dunedin Blue Jays

RealAccountant

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

I'm okay with Goins for the rest of this year and post season. His defensive assuredness makes up a lot. Whether the benefits are quantifiable or not there is just a different feeling the team gives on the D.

 

Travis can start next year healthy

Rajais Mitten Draft Eligible

Rajais Mitten

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

made myself a quick little spreadsheet and decided I might as well share it with you guys I was trying to see when we have lull like they do now while we play the tougher opponent (by schedule) and we really appear to go blow for blow from here on out. The strength of opponent is skewed a bit since we got the Phillies but it would be lower than the Yankees regardless although not by that much if you remove the one game for both the Twins and Phillies, the Yankees stay at .497 meanwhile they jays will jump up to .493.

 

Anyways here it is https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_pqf8kLam4Cv6oSDxji-9USFGrh7rLKx9z78zIJIuhA/edit?usp=sharing

Belliss101 FCL Blue Jays

Belliss101

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
made myself a quick little spreadsheet and decided I might as well share it with you guys I was trying to see when we have lull like they do now while we play the tougher opponent (by schedule) and we really appear to go blow for blow from here on out. The strength of opponent is skewed a bit since we got the Phillies but it would be lower than the Yankees regardless although not by that much if you remove the one game for both the Twins and Phillies, the Yankees stay at .497 meanwhile they jays will jump up to .493.

 

Anyways here it is https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_pqf8kLam4Cv6oSDxji-9USFGrh7rLKx9z78zIJIuhA/edit?usp=sharing

 

Thanks. You must have a lot of time on your hands haha

jays76 First Round Pick

jays76

Verified Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted
made myself a quick little spreadsheet and decided I might as well share it with you guys I was trying to see when we have lull like they do now while we play the tougher opponent (by schedule) and we really appear to go blow for blow from here on out. The strength of opponent is skewed a bit since we got the Phillies but it would be lower than the Yankees regardless although not by that much if you remove the one game for both the Twins and Phillies, the Yankees stay at .497 meanwhile they jays will jump up to .493.

 

Anyways here it is https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_pqf8kLam4Cv6oSDxji-9USFGrh7rLKx9z78zIJIuhA/edit?usp=sharing

 

Cool insight, what a tight race.. Jays will have to take the H2H, plain & simple.

LTR First Round Pick

LTR

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
made myself a quick little spreadsheet and decided I might as well share it with you guys I was trying to see when we have lull like they do now while we play the tougher opponent (by schedule) and we really appear to go blow for blow from here on out. The strength of opponent is skewed a bit since we got the Phillies but it would be lower than the Yankees regardless although not by that much if you remove the one game for both the Twins and Phillies, the Yankees stay at .497 meanwhile they jays will jump up to .493.

 

Anyways here it is https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_pqf8kLam4Cv6oSDxji-9USFGrh7rLKx9z78zIJIuhA/edit?usp=sharing

 

This is nice but it's all wrong.

 

First, the Yankees don't have a record of 66-54 (didn't check the rest).

 

Second, you need to weigh it not just by opponents win % but by # of games played vs each. Blue Jays opp win % is higher than your calculation.

 

Also, this is totally meaningless data because win % is not an indicative measurement of a team's talent.

Rajais Mitten Draft Eligible

Rajais Mitten

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
This is nice but it's all wrong.

 

First, the Yankees don't have a record of 66-54 (didn't check the rest).

 

Second, you need to weigh it not just by opponents win % but by # of games played vs each. Blue Jays opp win % is higher than your calculation.

 

Also, this is totally meaningless data because win % is not an indicative measurement of a team's talent.

 

The rest should be right like I said I kinda rushed it so must've got the yankees one wrong and I know the win % doesn't really tell the whole story of a teams talent like I said it's just something I quickly did for myself.

LTR First Round Pick

LTR

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
The rest should be right like I said I kinda rushed it so must've got the yankees one wrong and I know the win % doesn't really tell the whole story of a teams talent like I said it's just something I quickly did for myself.

 

The main thing is avg win % of opp's, you need to weigh by the number of games. 3 games != 7 games.

Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
This is nice but it's all wrong.

 

First, the Yankees don't have a record of 66-54 (didn't check the rest).

 

Second, you need to weigh it not just by opponents win % but by # of games played vs each. Blue Jays opp win % is higher than your calculation.

 

Also, this is totally meaningless data because win % is not an indicative measurement of a team's talent.

 

And your post is indicitave of what? How the teams play in the final 2 months? The probability fluctuates by day, meat. BP has it on MLB.com...hence you're dumb.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/probability.jsp?ymd=20150820

KevinGregg Draft Eligible

KevinGregg

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

those postseason probabilities really make you realize just how important every game is....

2 jays losses combined with 2 yankees wins on aug 13 & 14 changed the jays div% from 55% to 37 and the yankees div% from 39 to 58

 

Since there is an element of luck in baseball it actually makes sense to try to define the probability that a team will win its division.

 

Just as a thought experiment, if the season was magically played out 1000 times starting from aug 13 the jays would win their division 557 times but if it was played out 1000 times starting from aug 15 the jays would have only won the division 368 times. Is it reasonable to think that 2 days can make that much of a difference in the middle of august when you are that close in the standings? I think so

o2cui2i Vancouver Canadians

o2cui2i

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Can the Jays catch the Royals?

 

Royals would have to play like the angels for 2 weeks. Jays are 7 losses behind. Not saying it isn't possible. Jays would need help as well as playing good ball down the stretch.

jays76 First Round Pick

jays76

Verified Member
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Posted (edited)
Can't wait until Sept in Yankee Stadium so we can whoop their asses

 

A couple home & home heavyweight tilts coming up. Would be nice to gain a couple games on them in the meantime to have a cushion just in case they get the better of us.

Edited by jays76
S33n First Round Pick

S33n

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
I got a pair of tickets to all 3 games vs the Yanks Sept 21-23 :D. Should be the best Baseball I've ever seen live.
jays76 First Round Pick

jays76

Verified Member
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I got a pair of tickets to all 3 games vs the Yanks Sept 21-23 :D. Should be the best Baseball I've ever seen live.

 

I hate you, and I don't even know you..but I hate you.

 

So lucky..

Dick_Pole FCL Blue Jays

Dick_Pole

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I made no such indications of anything. I debunked his data. #TryHarder

 

Considering how much s*** you post on this board, you're being a pretty big douche to Rajai. I think he did an ok job for a quick analysis.

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