Tulo and Hawkins to the Jays for Reyes, Castro, Hoffman and Tinoco

[Angrioter]

Holy hell, Steamer took a big fat dump on Tulo's ROS projection. 104 wRC+? wat

 

Tulo .267/.340/.463, 104 wRC+

Reyes .308/.354/.435. 117 wRC+

 

********

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

HUGE upgrade. Tulo over Reyes is the same improvement as Martin over Navarro.

 

Maybe Donalson vs lawrie ! Lol

[DuckDuckGose]

Are we sure the Jays are all in? Should they be, even? Or is this just the start of a re-tooling?

 

Guess by Friday we all will know!

 

They're all in. They have the best 3B and SS in baseball plus a top 5 C and RF'er. Can't waste that.

[DuckDuckGose]

 

There is not really such a thing as burying players at the bottom of the order. Offensive players complement each other; Tulowitzki will make the contributions of other Blue Jays bats even more valuable. This is a considerable upgrade for the club.

 

 

Ryan Goins is a below replacement level player. He doesn't have major league utility.

 

Goins is a decent bench piece but he's not an everyday player. After him it's probably Andy Burns or Johnathon Goins-lite Diaz. There is no way they can move Tulo mid-season.

[Nabru]

I like Tulo, but the problem with adding him now (at the expense of the team's top prospect) is that you are paying him $100m over five years for what he did in the past, not necessarily what you can reasonably expect from him in his 30's going forward. So right off the bat that should have been a warning flag, especially since we saw Reyes erode before our eyes in a similar fashion. Secondly, look what happened the past couple of seasons with ownership. Made a big splash and then refused to spend more to put the team over the top. What's the point of having Tulo, Donaldson, Bautista, Martin, etc, if ownership is going to cut spending from there?

 

That leads to the final point, and that's the rotation after this season. Buehrle's gone. Estrada's gone. Dickey might have to be brought back just for lack of options but he could be gone. Sanchez is in the pen and likely better off over there. Osuna will hit his career high in IP this season and it will be as a reliever, so there's no way he'll be ready for a SP workoad next season. Stroman will have missed an entire year. Norris took a step backwards. Boyd is a #5 starter or a reliever depending on who you ask. There's just so many question marks on this team, and so little in the way of affordable young SP talent that help will need to come from outside the organization. That costs money and/or more prospects.

 

If you play for 1 or 2 years, that's all you'll get in a best case scenario. The Jays should be trying to build a sustainable winner. That won't happen if they keep trading top pitching prospects for $100m contracts attached to 30-somethings. This deal is not as bad as the Marlins/Dickey trade, but shouldn't be grouped with Donaldson either. It's somewhere in between. Much like the Jays over the past 20 years. Not bad, not great, but somewhere in between. The treadmill keeps rolling.

 

Blue Jays are always half pregnant. Frankly, I'm shocked at how many people are okay with a .500 team giving up even more prospect capital for players who have nowhere else to go but down for the rest of their careers. I'm not saying Hoffman or Castro or the other guy will be anything but that's not the point. Why couldn't this team build itself up like KC, PIT, HOU? Smart orgs don't make moves like this.

[Ryan8888]

There is no chance of Tulo being flipped. The Blue Jays have been pursuing Troy Tulowitzki for over a year and plan to install him at shortstop for the long haul. I can't really see them switching course, even if a couple teams do call Toronto and make good offers. There aren't really great other fits, too: the Mets can't afford Tulo's contract and St. Louis already has Jhonny Peralta.

 

There is not really such a thing as burying players at the bottom of the order. Offensive players complement each other; Tulowitzki will make the contributions of other Blue Jays bats even more valuable. This is a considerable upgrade for the club.

 

 

Ryan Goins is a below replacement level player. He doesn't have major league utility.

 

 

They or Fangraphs probably made a mistake. Steamer on Fangraphs projects Tulo for 1.1 WAR and Reyes for 1.4... does not remotely pass the smell test.

 

Would you rather have 1 below level replacement bat at SS or 2 possibly 3 below replacement arms in the starting rotation? Cause right now the quartet of Dubront, Dickey (who has pitched better of late), Huchison and Estrada have to be bordering on replacement level.

[Boxcar]

They or Fangraphs probably made a mistake. Steamer on Fangraphs projects Tulo for 1.1 WAR and Reyes for 1.4... does not remotely pass the smell test.

 

Maybe they adjusted his wOBA while not adjusting for new park? Idk.

FGDC: .288/.357/.493 .365 wOBA 132 wRC+

ZiPS: .308/.375/.522 .384 wOBA 131 wRC+

 

That doesn't make sense.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Your trade proposals make absolutely NO sense. You have no perception of the actual value of prospects and major leaguers. That's why we keep telling you to stop.

 

Nore do you know how any Rookie will turn out or any trade so stop pretending like you do, *******!

[Stangstag]

Maybe they adjusted his wOBA while not adjusting for new park? Idk.

FGDC: .288/.357/.493 .365 wOBA 132 wRC+

ZiPS: .308/.375/.522 .384 wOBA 131 wRC+

 

That doesn't make sense.

 

They can say whatever the f*** they want, but there's no way Reyes puts up more WAR then Tulo if they are both healthy.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

They're all in. They have the best 3B and SS in baseball plus a top 5 C and RF'er. Can't waste that.

 

Can't or will is still to be decided in all this!

[SSTP]

Isn't anyone worried about that hip surgery he had? Is there any precedent for people recovering ~100% from it? or any other players we can have a look at to gauge from?

 

I don't mind the deal if were trading for the pre-surgery Tulo and then were rolling the dice on how many games we can get at an elite level but this just seems like a little much when we don't even know if he can get back to his old form. His defensive metrics look smashed, as well as some of his power ones. Not too mention stats that you'd think wouldn't be impacted as much like BB% and such. Someone tell me it will all be ok lol

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Smoke 'n' mirrors, that's all this move is! AA just buying time unless a Real Ace is bought in and a second tier arm too!

 

Until then this is kinda a move non move really at best.

[Stangstag]

Isn't anyone worried about that hip surgery he had? Is there any precedent for people recovering ~100% from it? or any other players we can have a look at to gauge from?

 

I don't mind the deal if were trading for the pre-surgery Tulo and then were rolling the dice on how many games we can get at an elite level but this just seems like a little much when we don't even know if he can get back to his old form. His defensive metrics look smashed, as well as some of his power ones. Not too mention stats that you'd think wouldn't be impacted as much like BB% and such. Someone tell me it will all be ok lol

 

Look at Arod. Had hip surgery 1/2 years ago, now he's a back to being a world-beater

[Angrioter]

They can say whatever the f*** they want, but there's no way Reyes puts up more WAR then Tulo if they are both healthy.

 

Steamer "Tulo began his steep decline since he put the Toronto's jersey"

[Angrioter]

Here we go

[DuckDuckGose]

Maybe they adjusted his wOBA while not adjusting for new park? Idk.

FGDC: .288/.357/.493 .365 wOBA 132 wRC+

ZiPS: .308/.375/.522 .384 wOBA 131 wRC+

 

That doesn't make sense.

 

Tulo tends to miss more time in the 2nd half, would that factor int o the projections?

[Stangstag]

Tulo tends to miss more time in the 2nd half, would that factor int o the projections?

 

Yeah they only have him as playing 50 games. But it still doesn't explain why they think Reyes will have a higher wRC+ than Tulo

[Boxcar]

Isn't anyone worried about that hip surgery he had? Is there any precedent for people recovering ~100% from it? or any other players we can have a look at to gauge from?

 

I don't mind the deal if were trading for the pre-surgery Tulo and then were rolling the dice on how many games we can get at an elite level but this just seems like a little much when we don't even know if he can get back to his old form. His defensive metrics look smashed, as well as some of his power ones. Not too mention stats that you'd think wouldn't be impacted as much like BB% and such. Someone tell me it will all be ok lol

 

He had a really weird start to the season. Posted BB rates of 2.5% and 3.4% in April and May, respectively. His numbers are trending in the right direction, though, even his July. Great peripherals, stupidly low BABIP. I wouldn't be too worried as long as he's capable of playing. I've said before, also, that I do believe playing for the Rockies might have impacted him negatively and that he will be filled with purpose playing for Toronto. I wouldn't put stock into his defensive numbers just yet.

[DuckDuckGose]

Yeah they only have him as playing 50 games. But it still doesn't explain why they think Reyes will have a higher wRC+ than Tulo

 

Well a Reyes wRC+ projection of 117 just doesn't make sense. He was still a Met the last time he hit that well.

[pickoff22]

Here we go

 

Love it

[Stangstag]

Well a Reyes wRC+ projection of 117 just doesn't make sense. He was still a Met the last time he hit that well.

 

Does Coors really make THAT much of a difference?

[Boxcar]

Does Coors really make THAT much of a difference?

 

Yes.

[Stangstag]

Yes.

 

So Coors field will make Reyes 4 years younger and able to run and steal like he used to? I don't buy it

[Boxcar]

So Coors field will make Reyes 4 years younger and able to run and steal like he used to? I don't buy it

 

No, but it will improve how far he hits the ball.

[Stangstag]

No, but it will improve how far he hits the ball.

 

Enough to give Reyes a 117 wRC+? Thats like a 20 point jump from what he's doing now

[Boxcar]

Enough to give Reyes a 117 wRC+? Thats like a 20 point jump from what he's doing now

 

I think what happened is they transitioned Reyes' slashline and wOBA to Coors but the wRC+ adjustment is still for RC. Opposite for Tulo (thought still pretty light imo)

 

There's a reason why Colorado has the best unadjusted offense in the NL since they came into existence.

[DuckDuckGose]

Does Coors really make THAT much of a difference?

 

I don't think so, RC is a pretty good hitters park as is but, there are others on here that know better than me (Boxy being one of them)

[Deadpool]

Here we go

 

Stroman's reply:

 

[Inklink]

Live Stream | Tulowitzki Introduction Press Conference (2:30 PM EST):

http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/tor/video/v308398283/tulowitzki-press-conference

In case anyone missed it in the GDT

[HERPDERP]

New pitcher confirmed

Shi Davidi ‏@ShiDavidi 32s32 seconds ago

#BlueJays DFA Felix Doubront to clear spot for Troy Tulowitzki